Posts by George Robinson43

rustywalker82 said:The US hasn't made up its mind yet on whether they'll push for an exemption from the oil embargo. Honestly, it’s not surprising one bit.

You really just have to look back at all those debates regarding offshore oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico. Back then, a bunch of self-proclaimed geniuses spent all their time throwing insults at anyone who actually supported those kinds of investments (and let’s be real, those "experts" ended up being proven right). Even the Russian ambassador weighed in, getting quoted by everyone while he argued that we shouldn't even bother drilling just for a few extra drops of oil and gas. 🤣

The most frustrating part is that while we had maybe 20 gas platforms in the same area, the Italians had over 200!
Still, it's much better to conduct business through ExxonMobil than to deal with the headache of drilling. 😉

steelfox98 said:https://english.alarabiya.net/busine...-pipeline-jump

This has been dragging on for months, yet the Poles are acting like they won the lottery. What part of this isn't clicking?

Let me simplify things for you so you don't have to spin your wheels quite so much.

The Poles and the Baltic states said a permanent goodbye to Russian gas.
They’ve been preparing for this invasion of Ukraine since 2014 because, unlike the clueless folks in the West, they knew exactly what kind of people live just east of Ukraine.
The investments required for total independence from Russian gas will be finalized in just a few months.

And yet, here you are, still churning out posts about Yamal and some supposed Russian gas flowing through Germany. 👋

steelfox98 said:Poland's GIP capacity sits at a mere 2.4 bcm, while Russia is pumping out 10 bcm.
It's still just a pilot phase, really. Full-scale operations aren't even slated until November.

And?
They’re ramping up to full capacity precisely when they need the gas most.
They have already filled their storage facilities, linked up with the connection toward Klaipėda, and possess a regasification terminal capable of handling over 7 billion cubic meters—all while they'll be receiving gas from Norway just as the heating season hits its peak.

Given all that, which "German gas" are you even referring to?

Switching over to Norwegian gas—what happened to the German supply?
Just a few days ago, they successfully linked up with the Lithuanian terminal via the gipl pipeline.

boldbison40 said:Personally, my favorite bit of logical gymnastics is when people bring up NATO's aggressive expansion. The reality is quite simple: the former Warsaw Pact nations were desperately trying to escape Russian influence at any cost, and now we can finally see exactly why they felt the need to run.

I don't think Jakić will ever truly grasp these nuances. I remember his stances on the USSR, the Warsaw Pact, and COMECON like they were yesterday—I watched him on the news every single day back in high school.

rustynomad12 said:Honestly, if you want a killer breakdown of this war and how it’s actually changing everything, check this out:
https://www.tacno.net/novosti/samoub...lgW53feotliyZY

The writing isn't terrible, but it’s the classic "Russia is the aggressor... but..." type of justification.
It’s hardly surprising when you consider the author is someone we’ve spent years watching on TV offering nothing but praise for the USSR, COMECON, the Warsaw Pact, Jaruzelski, and the PLO.
That’s likely why they conveniently ignored the connection between the Democratic Party and the White House from the moment Putin took power until now.
The rest basically boils down to: Russia attacked, but it's not their fault—it was the Nazis, etc.—and it would be best if Ukraine just surrendered so everyone can live in peace.
It’s very much in the vein of Zoran Milanović. 😉

boldotter2 said:Even a complete newcomer could make things difficult for him. I guess that’s really why he does what he does—it isn't about some grand vision or "sovereignty." He basically made a deal with the devil, and now he's probably terrified the devil's gonna come looking for him.

Precisely! When you plug the main supply line, a savvy leader makes sure there's enough slush fund available to keep his rogue agents in line. Viktor Orbán, Péter Szijjártó, and the rest of Putin's loyal henchmen understand that dynamic perfectly.
That is why they will continue to follow every single order from the boss.
Does anyone honestly believe Canada received discounted hydrocarbons from Russia just out of the goodness of their hearts? As if Vladimir Putin were a saint?

Paul Anderson7 said:The boss is whoever actually has the power to make his life miserable, specifically when it comes to the money. In this case, that would be the European Union and the USA.

Honestly, neither the USA nor the European Union can exert nearly as much pressure as a true boss from the Kremlin. If his real boss shuts off the valve, they'll be sent straight back to the Stone Age, and no amount of help from Washington, D.C., or Brussels will save them.
Mind you, tethering themselves so tightly to the Kremlin was entirely their own decision.

Paul Anderson7 said:Canada isn't Russia, and if Viktor Orbán decides to just ignore the European Union, he might find himself facing some serious domestic unrest, despite his recent election victory. Between the pressure from the EU and the USA, people will eventually wake up to the fact that the path their beloved Orbán is taking isn't actually going to do them any favors.
I honestly don't doubt for a second that the EU has plenty of ways to "convince" Orbán to fall in line. Of course, that all depends on whether the EU stays united—and it feels to me like the involvement of Americans in the conflict in Ukraine acts as a sort of guarantee that the European nations will stick together.

Orbán can play the part of the bumbling fool or the fiercely independent statesman if he wants, but the reality is that when his bosses make a threat, he’ll listen. It’s probably too early for outright threats since they don't even need to take a formal stance yet, but once the moment comes where they have to choose, they'll either comply or watch the EU shut off the money flow entirely.

Aleksandar Vučić has already realized there's nothing left to be gained from Russia, and I suspect Orbán will come to that same conclusion soon enough.

The boss makes a threat? Fair enough.
But who exactly is this boss? 😉

Rachel Richardson said:Even Josip Broz Marshall was a Stalinist once, before he eventually switched sides.

I don't see how Canada can survive long-term as an ally of Putin.

The concept of "long-term" is completely irrelevant to them.
Their only focus is maintaining power and staying comfortable while they are still in office—from the elite politicians down to the little circle of oligarchs clinging to the administration.
I was reading some nonsense from Hernadija yesterday about how they need at least four years just to prep their refineries for non-Russian oil—what a load of rubbish!
In today's market, you can easily source a similar crude blend, and they can process all the oil we sell them without any trouble, especially since they buy it for pennies thanks to the leeway we give them.

But as long as they have the chance, they will try to block every single anti-Russia measure coming out of the European Union.
The mask slipped months ago.

hollowdriver13 said:If the whole European Union is on board and they’re left standing all alone, things could get pretty ugly for them—especially since they can't really count on Americans to have their backs this time around.
Besides, it wouldn't take much; if individual nations just decide to block Russian oil shipments from crossing their borders, Viktor Orbán can sing whatever battle songs he wants.

Canada is a nation strategically tethered to Russia, not just through energy needs but through politics as well, because the state model Orbán is building is essentially a mirror image of Putin's Russia.
That country practically shares zero common ground with the European Union anymore; they are really only there to collect subsidies.
Hun acts as a pawn for Putin, working to maintain a constant atmosphere of chaos and infighting within the European Union, and they perform that role exceptionally well.
And naturally, Hun will use their veto to block any embargo.
I mentioned this in another thread already: if Putin ever loses his cool and launches a few Iskander missiles at Estonia, Canada would likely pull out of NATO that very same day.

Joshua Myers432 said:I wouldn't bet on that. First, they grab a chunk of Eastern Ukraine and set up some pathetic little republic. Then comes the "peace talks," then a ceasefire, then a rigged referendum in those garbage republics (just like what happened in Crimea), and voilà—suddenly it's Russia.

Meanwhile, they'll launch another five or six Sarmat missiles toward Alaska, and anyone daring enough to touch Russia gets hit with a Sarmat. Think about it. You can attack the Luhansk Republic or the Donetsk Republic—those little joke states. But once it becomes officially Russia? I'm not so sure.

It might be a Russian victory, but it's a Pyrrhic one. They haven't pushed NATO away from their borders, nor have they gained any significant land, yet they've completely severed ties with the West. And what exactly is the benefit? What kind of connection do Russians even have with Indians, Chinese, or Mongols?

If you ask them, the connections are far deeper than anything they have with the West.

Honestly, I think Russia is just bluffing at this point.
They cut off gas supplies to Poland right after they filled up their storage tanks and got ready to ditch Russian gas, and they did the same to Bulgaria, where everything should be connecting via pipeline in Greece within two months.

If they actually had any nerve, they would have shut off the tap to Germany the moment those guys announced they were sending tanks.

coastalbison6 said:The Americans have started shipping supplies
View on twitter

Everything looks fine, but what's being shown on the screen certainly isn't the full picture, and those quantities are definitely off.

Does anyone honestly believe they're shipping out 18 howitzers??? 😉

northernangler8 said:It’s the exact same story here in America. The only difference is that Americans are a bit more clever, so they just swap out the faces of their "leaders." In reality, everyone follows the same agenda and orders. It's like how the Democrats and Republicans have been rotating power for years; nobody else ever stands a chance at winning.😁 This is essentially a dictatorship, just wearing a mask.

The Democratic Party could have won, but they folded the moment things got tough.
Do you feel bad for them?

northernangler8 said:''The administration is working overtime to drag America into a war! They just kicked out 18 Russian diplomats''

Get out of here while you still can!!!!

Joseph Clark37 said:How technically feasible would it be to arm Reapers with something like AMRAAM missiles, using AWACS to feed targeting data directly into the drone's guidance system to intercept Russian aircraft?

Forget about targeting planes.
It’s much better to just hammer away at their manpower and armor!

Carl Lee27 said:Actually, wait, turns out helicopters won't be part of this new US aid package after all
https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/statu...34167071260674

The General Atomics deal might actually go through, perhaps in the next round of assistance; word is the US has plenty of out-of-service Predators just sitting in storage.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/statu...27737039654918

We are seeing a slow but steady move toward much more sophisticated hardware. We started with basic infantry gear, mostly geared toward defense, then moved up to light armored vehicles, kamikaze drones, and things like that. Now we're talking about howitzers, tanks, and anti-ship missiles... so what comes next? Abrams or Leopards, Sky Sabre, AH-1Z, ATACMS, F-16s, high-end drones, and basically the whole spectrum of guided munitions like Hellfire, Brimstone, or JAGM...
And since the Americans emphasized they are willing to provide support even if the Ukrainians need specialized training, there's this excellent thread on the subject regarding how the private sector gets involved in US military logistics and training, and how the Ukrainians can transition to American weaponry relatively quickly.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/sta...18592334475265

By the way, that Pentagon meeting with the defense contractors? The whole topic is preparing for the possibility that this war in Ukraine drags on for years. The US is gearing up to provide everything necessary so that every single village, even in the most remote reaches of Russia, is draped in black.☕

That provides a formidable foundation for the mass destruction of equipment and personnel. It will be intense watching Reaper and Predator footage as they dismantle convoy after convoy.
Furthermore, those monsters responsible for over 20,000 deaths in Mariupol should be wiped out from the sky using Excalibur.

wiredseal7 said:That's exactly what's happening right now—they're following the Montreux Convention, which lets them shut the straits to all warships during wartime, a move they've already made.

Admiral Gorskov has already been blocked, so NATO hasn't even had a chance to test the waters yet.

You might have forgotten this part, or perhaps you left it out on purpose—it applies to all warships belonging to belligerent Powers.
...unless we are talking about the warships of belligerent Powers returning to their home ports in the Black Sea.

All other vessels are permitted to stay in the Black Sea for up to 21 days.

Vessels of War belonging to non-Black Sea Powers shall not remain in The Black Sea more Than twenty-one Days
regardless of why they are there.
Article 19.
In time of War , Turkey not being belligerent , warships shall enjoy complete Freedom of Transit and navigation through The Straits under The same conditions as those laid down in Article 10 to 18.

Vessels of War belonging to belligerent Powers shall not however , pass through The Straits except in cases arising out of The application of Article 25 of The present Convention,

It’s an easy target for the ruble. They can likely keep it on life support for a little while longer.
With war projections suggesting GDP will drop by 11-15% within a month, if the conflict and sanctions continue to escalate, we could be looking at a hit exceeding 20%—regardless of whether they try to prop up the ruble or not.