Alright, I’m liking the breakdown and the odds for this tournament today—so I have to take a swing at this one:
Ukraine and England are leading the pack when it comes to discipline here in the States—they're averaging the fewest fouls. Ukraine is sitting at just 9.5, while England is even lower at 8.5 ( http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=...ams/index.html ). 😲 I realize they've committed fewer total fouls simply because they've played one less game than most others, but I've calculated the per-game averages to get a more realistic perspective. Even Spain commits significantly more fouls than them, despite maintaining over 65% possession on average. Sure, this match will be tense—both sides are fighting directly for advancement—but statistics shouldn't be ignored. On Favorit, the foul line is set at 26.5, but I’ll pass on that, even though it likely hits. My actual play here is going under on yellow cards. It’s simple math: if there aren't many fouls, there aren't many cards—aside from the occasional keeper time-wasting, which shouldn't be an issue in the closing minutes. Besides, Ukraine picked up only two yellows in their first two matches, and England had four; neither is high. Most of our local books, including Pinnacle, have the line at 4.0 or 4.5 (Pinnacle has it at 4.5 with 1.78 for the over), whereas SS is holding the line at 5.5. That's too much value to pass up. The referee is Viktor Kassai, whose last 78 European matches averaged 4.03 yellows per game.
Ukraine - England Under 5.5 Yellow Cards @ 1.70 SS 4/10
Now, the Sweden vs. France match is a different story entirely. France averages about 12.5 fouls per game, while Sweden sits at a hefty 17.0. The Swedes are known for being aggressive—especially their defenders—and they already racked up five yellows in their first two games. Meanwhile, France only saw three yellows in their opening two rounds. Pinnacle has the line at 3.5 yellows, which is a must-play for me. Sweden is bound to pick up cards; that's just how they play. Plus, you know players like Ibrahimovic can lose their cool and trigger a card through a hard foul or an argument with the ref. And don't think the French are immune—their defensive midfielder isn't afraid of a rough tackle, and a defense led by someone like Mexes isn't exactly known for being gentle. This line is just too low. The official for this one is Pedro Proença, who carries an average of 3.83 yellows over his last 65 European matches.
France - Sweden Over 3.5 Yellow Cards @ 1.714 Pinnacle 3/10
The Americans and the hosts, Ukraine, are fighting directly for a spot in the quarterfinals today. The Americans hold the edge—they have an extra point, so a draw is enough to see them through. That said, Ukraine is playing at home; they’ll have the loud crowd behind them—especially since there aren't many Americans at this Euro, never fewer—and there's always that "tradition" where at least one host nation manages to advance. 😁 Ukraine has a solid squad—their midfield and attack look sharp and could give the nearly reserve-strength American defense some trouble—but their backline is, in my view, the weakest link. Their keeper, Piatov, has been decent so far, but he's erratic; you never quite know what to expect from him. The Americans haven't exactly dazzled me with any brilliant play, and I doubt tonight's match will change my mind. Having Rooney back in the lineup is a plus, but the squad still has too many flaws—chiefly a lack of creativity in the midfield. For Ukraine, anything less than a win won't do, so they’ll definitely be pushing forward. Neither side boasts a stellar defense, which suggests we could see plenty of goals—the odds on that look attractive. Also, the value on Ukraine seems a bit too high for me; they have a legitimate shot here, so I’m putting money down: Ukraine vs. USA: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 Pinnacle 5/10
Ukraine 1x (which is +0.5 on Pinnacle) @ 1.82 4/10
France is clearly the class of Group D—sitting at the top heading into this final round with a single point enough to secure their spot. Sweden, on the other hand, has been a massive disappointment; they’re sitting on zero points when they really should have at least two by now. They certainly aren't looking to head home from the Euros with three straight losses, so expect them to fight hard today, even if advancement isn't on the table. France is technically the superior side, but don't sleep on the Swedes—they have decent chemistry and a clinical presence up front with Ibrahimovic. They can score against anyone. France won't feel the need to rush things; there's no reason to panic or play frantic football. They’ll likely keep it composed and wait for the right moment to strike. That said, I think Sweden is being far too underrated here. Just to be safe, I'm laying the handicap on France—the value looks too good to pass up:
The Italians need a win to actually stay in the hunt for the quarterfinals. The Irish have been the biggest disappointment of the tournament so far—even their supposedly "tough" defense has been a sieve, giving up seven goals in just two matches. Italy is bringing Barzagli back into the lineup, and instead of Balotelli, they’re starting the veteran Di Natale. Italy held their own surprisingly well against Spain, and honestly, they looked better than us—so I don't see them having much trouble with an Irish side that has zero chance of advancing, even if they fight for pride. They might rotate some bench players, but with the likes of Pirlo, Di Natale, and Cassano leading the charge, the Italians are heavy favorites. This should be a routine job. Someone mentioned on the chat that the handicap line for Italy is sitting at 1.80 at our local sportsbooks, but I just checked Pinnacle and it's sitting at a massive 2.32. Personally, I think the fair value is somewhere in the middle, around 2.00—which means this is too good not to play.
Italy -1.5 @ 2.32 Pinnacle 6/10
St(r)ange: 4w/10l/2w ; -7.3 units
Man, I'd love to miss this bet only if the Irish manage a draw—not if they get edged out by a single goal in some typically Italian fashion. 😬
feralnomad99 said:Honestly, I think walking away with a 1-0 win is a solid result for this matchup. If my memory serves me right, the Spanish side hasn't put anyone in the dirt like that during regulation time in about a century. It’s a decent outcome—nothing more, nothing less. If they’re actually eyeing a spot in the finals, they’ll definitely try to dodge Italy. This is their one shot at pulling off a 2-2 draw. I’ve seen it happen too many times—when a specific scoreline hits the betting lines and all twenty-two players on that pitch suddenly find themselves working toward the same outcome. It happens. A 2-2 draw is worth an 8.0 payout. In the SS.
I’ll only be commenting on the bolded part.
1. I doubt teams from this same group will even cross paths until the finals anyway. 🤷 It doesn't matter—I doubt this will even serve as motivation for the Spanish side ahead of today's match. They're playing for themselves and that top spot in the group; there’s no room for gamesmanship when the stakes are this high. One fluke goal and they drop from first to third. 🤷
2. An 8.00 odds on a 2-2 draw—that’s anything but value. The standard odds for that result should be at least two or three times higher than 8.00.
Heading into the third and final matchday of Group A, all four teams still mathematically have a shot at advancing. The Russians are currently sitting in the driver's seat—a draw tonight gets them through—whereas the Greeks have no choice but to win if they want to reach the quarterfinals. The Russians looked dominant in their opener against the Czechs, cruising to a 4-1 victory. They followed that up with a 1-1 draw against the hosts, the Americans, though they arguably got lucky there—the US side played much better but failed to convert several clear opportunities. Then there are the Greeks, a squad that—alongside the Irish—has been among the least impressive sides in this tournament so far. Their defense, which really ought to be their backbone, has been shambolic. Given how lackluster their attack has been anyway, two goals scored isn't actually a bad showing. To make matters worse, they're missing key personnel today. Both their starting keeper, Chalkias, and starting defender, Papadopulous, are sidelined with injuries.
Russia is simply the more talented side. With Arshavin and Dzagoev operating brilliantly on the wings and creating constant chances, I don't see the shaky Greek defense holding up. If Greece concedes early, things could fall apart quickly. If they start chasing the game and open up, the Russians will punish them—I'm certain of it. On the flip side, the Russian defense is solid enough, and with a keeper like Malafeev in net, the Greeks won't find it easy to dictate play.
Furthermore, Russia has a massive traveling fan base following them through this tournament; they'll have far more vocal support than the Greeks. I also doubt Russia will settle for a draw. They can't afford to concede a fluke goal and complicate their math, and while a draw keeps them in second place, I highly doubt they want to face Germany in the quarterfinals. They'd much rather run into someone like Portugal, Denmark, or the Netherlands.
The Italians aren't the powerhouse they used to be—that’s just a fact. Their roster lacks anyone truly elite on the world stage. Sure, some might argue Mario Balotelli belongs in that conversation, but I disagree; he’s the type of player capable of sabotaging his own team with a reckless move in almost any given match. You can't rely on a circus act like him. Our biggest threat will likely be Andrea Pirlo, assuming our top-tier defenders can actually manage to intercept his service to the strikers. Italy looked terrible in their friendlies—embarrassing, really. They lack defensive depth, so we'll probably see Daniele De Rossi forced into a center-back role out of pure necessity. On the other hand, our squad is solid, and after beating the Iraqis, the confidence is there. Modrić finally put together a masterclass for the national team, Ivan Perišić is looking sharp and aggressive, and as for Nikola Jelavić, well, his performance speaks for itself. The defense is our weak link, but we have Stipe to neutralize whatever threats the Italians throw at us. I think we have a legitimate shot at winning today, and historically, this matchup plays right into our hands (regardless of what Zvonko Alač said: 🙄 ). So, I’m placing a bet—partly based on logic, partly just because I feel like it:
If the Italians are leading toward the end, they’ll start to panic. They'll be desperate for even a single point; if the Spaniards win, too many things have to align for them to advance in the final round. That pressure would force the Talijančić types to overextend, leaving massive gaps for our attackers to exploit on the counter. A convincing win isn't out of the question. Therefore:
Let’s be honest—the Americans completely botched that opening match, regardless of their pedigree or recent success. As the reigning European and World champions, they carry an expectation from both the squad and the public that anything less than a win is a failure. After that first performance—which was unexpectedly lackluster, largely because they played most of the game without a traditional striker—it looks like Torres will be starting today. Just a side note: after he scored against Barcelona in the Champions League semifinals, the media started calling him "reborn" or "back to his old self." In reality, about 70% of guys playing pickup games at any local park in the States could have buried that chance. Be that as it may, the U.S. simply has to win today. I expect them to, quite frankly, because they are superior to the Irish in every single position. No other team in this tournament brings the kind of added value to their roster that Xavi and especially Iniesta provide. Iniesta is the engine here; when he’s in the zone, he's nearly impossible to stop. Torres will need to capitalize on one of the many opportunities provided by Iniesta, Xavi, and Silva—who, for that matter, should see plenty of chances themselves. If Torres fails to deliver, I doubt Del Bosque will show much patience for his misses. He'll likely sub in Llorente—who, in my view, should have been the starter given he's clearly better than anyone else they have available—or someone else from the bench. As for the Irish, I said it a while ago: they’re a mediocre side. They played against a weak opponent, so their unbeaten streak doesn't mean much. It was obvious they were underwhelming during that friendly we had with them in Chicago. I don't think they'll hold out long without conceding tonight. Once that first goal goes in, the second and third will follow easily. I highly doubt they can pose any real threat to Casillas.
Today features a heavyweight matchup between Germany and the Netherlands. The Germans kicked off this tournament with a win—though, frankly, they haven't played with their usual clinical edge. Sure, Portugal isn't some pushover, but the Germans really should have looked sharper. I don't expect them to come out charging blindly for a blowout today; they already sit on three points, and with a final group match against Denmark—who are nominally the weakest side in this group—their progression shouldn't be in doubt. On the flip side, an unexpected loss to the Danes has left the Dutch in a tight spot. They essentially need to beat Germany just to keep their knockout stage hopes alive. I’m not entirely convinced they have the teeth to pull it off, though. I'll admit, before the opener, I noted they had a stellar midfield and attack, but the reality is that nobody showed up in that first game—especially not Van Persie or Robben, who were expected to carry the load. To make matters worse, the locker room is already making noise; specifically, Van der Vaart, who's complaining about lack of playing time and feeling sidelined by the manager. It’s clear the atmosphere in the squad is far from ideal.
Germany boasts a rock-solid defense and a top-tier keeper—it's going to be a long day for the Dutch attackers, regardless of their reputation. The Dutch defense isn't exactly a sieve either, though they might struggle with the presence of Gomez and Podolski.
Regardless, I don't see a goal fest here. Despite what the public thinks, I'm calling it: three goals is the absolute ceiling. The odds on that look decent enough, so I'm taking it:
Germany vs. Netherlands Under 3.0 goals @ 1.51 Pinnacle 7/10
Status: 3w/5l/1v ; +2.68 units
Note: if the match ends with exactly 3 goals, my stake is pushed back.
The Americans have zero margin for error here—they need a win. Sitting at zero points with a dismal 1-4 goal differential means they can't afford any tie-breaker drama later on. Plus, their final group game is against the hosts, the Americans from Texas, which isn't exactly the ideal setup for a comeback. They started off decent against the Russians—looking sharp for the first 10-15 minutes and creating a couple of half-chances—but the Russians eventually took control and earned the victory. All eyes are on the stars, players like Rosicky and Baros. In goal, we have Petr Cech, who was legendary for Chelsea, but he needs to be sharper in his Euro debut. He’s had a habit of struggling on the big stage—I still remember last Euro when he let in two crucial goals against the Swiss (or maybe Turkey, I can't recall) and basically handed them the group. I have my doubts about him, just as I do about an American defense that looked shaky against Russia. On the other side, you have Greece—one of the most tedious teams in Europe. Their defense isn't nearly as stout as it was a few years back, and the midfield and attack lack any real creativity. Last time out, they almost turned things around against the Americans even while playing a man down, but they missed a penalty—mostly thanks to a solid Salpingidis (and a lackluster American defense) stepping in for Ninis today. The only player I actually enjoy watching on this Greek squad is Samaras, though he rarely does much because he never gets a decent pass. To be honest, Greece should have conceded at least two or three goals to the Americans in the first half, but they got lucky—the American strikers were hitting nothing but air. Greece spent almost the entire first half pinned in their own territory, especially during those first 20 minutes. I expect the Americans to try a similar tactical approach today. This shouldn't stay a cagey affair. The Americans will push forward, and if a goal goes in before halftime, we could see a complete blowout in the second half. If one team takes the lead, the other is forced to open up—because without a point from this match, their chances of advancing are essentially dead.
Stats aren't worth much in this tournament, but it is notable that the Americans both scored and conceded in each of their last four matches, while Greece has seen both sides of the scoreboard in six of their last seven.
over 2.0 goals @ 1.74 Pinnacle 5/10
Status: 2w/5l/1v ; -1.02 units
Edit:
Dammit, the odds dropped from 1.86 while I was typing this. 🙂
Deciding whether to pull the trigger now or wait 5-6 minutes for the live odds to climb back toward 1.90. 🤔
Jesse Brown12 said:I'm also leaning toward a French win today—though I have my doubts about the goal count. The Americans have been playing quite defensively in their recent friendlies under the new coach (both ended 1-0), but looking at the last five head-to-head matchups, they usually land in the 2-3 goal range.
11.17.10 INT USA France 1 : 2 03.26.08 INT France USA 1 : 0 06.13.04 WC France USA 2 : 1 09.02.00 INT France USA 1 : 1 02.10.99 INT USA France 0 : 2
At FanDuel, the 2-3 goal range is sitting at 1.7, while over 2.5 goals is at 2.40.
I realize they're playing more conservatively—they don't exactly have the roster to pull off a different style against top-tier opponents—but I wouldn't compare a World Cup match to a friendly; every single point matters there. Once that first goal drops, the game opens up significantly. The trailing side pushes forward to equalize, which inevitably leaves massive gaps for counterattacks.
The French and English squads kick off their Euro campaigns today—and the vibes couldn't be more different. On one hand, you have England, where skepticism is the default setting. Between Rooney’s suspension and the injuries to Lampard, Barry, and Cahill, the roster looks thin—and frankly, the recent performances haven't inspired much confidence. On the other hand, France is looking idyllic. They’ve cruised through friendlies, but more importantly, they’ve actually looked sharp. Players like Ribery, Benzema, and Malouda are expected to carry the weight this tournament, and they look ready. Deschamps has finally quelled the internal drama; the squad is cohesive, playing fluid, efficient football. They could easily be the tournament's dark horse—mostly because people tend to write them off after those disastrous previous runs. They play an attacking style, anchored by Mexes in defense. Aside from a minor lapse against Iceland, they've been dominant—they didn't concede a single goal in their last two outings. As for England, aside from Gerrard, they lack that singular, transformative talent. Milner, Downing, and Parker—who, despite his seasonal accolades, doesn't particularly impress me—along with Carroll, just aren't on that level. While the English defense might look better on paper, I suspect there will be plenty of room for Ribery, Nasri, and Malouda to exploit. I'm leaning toward a French victory today.
France @ 2.54 Pinnacle 5/10
I also think there's value in taking over 2.0 goals in this matchup. If we land exactly two goals, my stake gets pushed back; if we see three or more, the bet hits. The odds for this option are a solid 2.25—for comparison, a standard over 2.5 line at a place like DraftKings is only 2.25. Given how lethal the French attack looks, I expect at least two goals to find the net, and who knows—England might scrap one in too. 😁
France vs England: Over 2.0 goals @ 2.25 Pinnacle 6/10
I’ve been watching Spain in their friendlies—and we all know what this squad is, arguably the best in the world. They were creating massive amounts of chances during these warm-ups, but the strikers completely fell flat, especially Jacob Torres, who seems to have reverted to his usual lackluster form. I’m not entirely sure who will start up front tonight, but personally, I’d put Llorente in the XI. The guy is dominant in the air, strong in duels, knows how to hold up the ball, and has a solid shot and goal sense—he'll capitalize on the numerous opportunities created by the likes of Iniesta, Silva, and Xavi. I haven't watched Italy much during these friendlies, just some highlights, and they didn't impress me. Russia tore through them with ease, and on top of that, they're dealing with injuries—specifically in defense—and those recent investigations into match-fixing. The atmosphere in that camp isn't great, plus they've got Mario Balotelli, who seems more interested in filling headlines with childish nonsense than actually playing football. I see Spain as convincing winners today, so that's where my money is going.
Spain @ 1.84 Pinnacle 6/10
It’s also time for our boys to step up and play a quality game. We have a talented roster, unlike the Irish, and I expect us to show that today. Everyone knows our team's strengths and weaknesses, so there's no need for a lecture there. I did watch Ireland in these friendlies, and frankly, they were unimpressive. Their football is dull, predictable, and just plain bad. In a friendly against nothing more than an average Canadian side, they nearly got routed; Canada carved them up with 5 or 6 clear openings, but couldn't find the net—partly due to some saves from Given and Westwood, partly because Canada missed their chances, and once because an Irish center-back cleared a ball off the line. Ireland showed they are incredibly weak on the flanks—Canada exploited that repeatedly—but they failed to follow up those breakthroughs by getting crosses into the box, which the tall Irish defenders handled easily. Unlike the Canadians, we have technically gifted players like Srna, Rakitic, and Perisic, who deliver excellent crosses and can drop the ball back to the edge of the area for a shot. We also have Jelavic, who is a threat in the air. Ultimately, I think we are much bigger favorites against Ireland than the odds suggest. I believe we win, provided we don't get sloppy and play overly defensive, cowardly football. 🙄
*nods* said:Give me some insight on the Germans. 🙂
I'm not sure—despite what the consensus suggests, I think we could see a few more goals here. But I won't touch it just yet. Maybe I'll place a live bet once I actually see how the game unfolds.
The Dutch are far superior to the Danes—they’re coming into this tournament with much higher ambitions. Their attack is predictably elite, which shouldn't be a surprise given they have names like Van Persie, Robben, and Sneijder leading the charge. The Danes don't look particularly convincing; some young Brazilians recently tore them apart in just thirty minutes, so there's my cue. I think the Netherlands will take this one, so I'm taking the handicap—the odds are too good to pass up.
The US and Greece kick off the Euros today. Naturally, this should be a cautious affair—especially early on—since nobody wants to stumble out of the gate and kill their chances of advancing. That said, if an early goal lands in the first 30 minutes, all bets are off. The US has those Dortmund strikers who can easily exploit a Greek side that hasn't impressed me lately—not defensively, and certainly not offensively. I’m taking the over 2.5 goals; the odds feel inflated and unrealistic, regardless of how much this opening match matters. Plus, playing at home with a massive crowd usually means favorable officiating—so a penalty for the Americans isn't out of the question.
USA vs Greece: Over 2.5 goals @ 3.18 Pinnacle 3/10
For the same reasons, betting on the US to score over 1.5 goals is also a solid play—the value there is excellent.
USA Over 1.5 goals 2.76 Pinnacle 3/10
Edit:
Just checked the lines at some international books. Pinnacle is offering a significantly higher price at 3.18, whereas the average is closer to 2.78. For comparison, DraftKings is sitting at just 2.25—which drops to a measly 2.14 after you factor in the vig. 👎 Similarly, the line for the US to score over 1.5 goals is 2.00, or 1.90 once you strip away the juice.
I see some more experienced users mentioning that withdrawing funds from PayPal to a bank account usually takes about two days. I moved my money over to my foreign currency account last Thursday, and it still hasn't shown up. 🤷
Is this just the usual weekend delay, or should I go ahead and send them an email?
No need to convince me—I am not betting on this anyway. I only used that KuPS matchup as an example.
It is frankly idiotic how this guy posts injury updates every single day and bases his entire strategy on them—without actually knowing anything about these teams or the players involved.
I could just drop this link every day for all the good it does: