James Taylor3 said:I only realized two weeks ago that changing a username was actually an option—apparently, it’s listed in the admin@reddit.com section of the "Reddit - rules" PDF. However, the instructions say to send a request via email, which clearly isn't working anymore; I've been waiting on a response for two weeks now. It would be helpful if they updated that document to reflect the current process. 😉
If possible, I'd like to change my handle to James Taylor3.
Thanks. 😁
That should work—just reach out to Tyndall.
Nearly two weeks have passed. I almost forgot about this myself, though I didn't expect even someone like Tindal to let it slip through the cracks. 🙂
Sheriff isn't a pushover—they knocked Dinamo out a few years back, we all know the drill, blah, blah... Word is they’re looking solid again this year; some even say they've improved since their last run. On the other hand, Dinamo is struggling—desperate, really. They barely scraped by against those Bulgarians, and even in the MLS, they aren't nearly the dominant force they used to be. Their play is sloppy, especially on the road. They lack any real rhythm, and in European competition, they couldn't hold their own against teams far inferior to Sheriff. So, I'm backing the home side—though I honestly expected a slightly lower price, maybe around 0.30 or 0.40 less. 🤷
Slask - Helsingborgs: Helsingborgs to score @ 1.45
I happened to catch Slask playing a friendly against Bilbao about ten days ago, as well as their match against Buducnost. Against a modest Mexican side, they were lucky to escape—they squandered four or five sitters, and we all know how thin the talent pool is in Mexican club football. Slask’s defense is shaky at best. Helsingborg, meanwhile, is in mid-season form, having already played 17 rounds of their domestic league. They’ll find their openings tonight—and I suspect they'll convert at least one.
Joshua Garcia8 said:It happens—some sportsbooks force you to withdraw funds using the exact same method you used for your deposit. I can’t recall the specifics, but if I remember correctly, I had to use PayPal to fund my account on Bet365 just to be able to withdraw back to PayPal.
That rule is nonsense—completely pointless, really.
In that case, my apologies to the fellow forum member for the misinformation.
Eric Fox7 said:@ Ethan Jones5 Hajduk is playing away 🤦 I suspect Skonto might at least scrape a draw, if they don't pull off an upset. The only way this makes sense is on some casual parlay.
I actually agree with Ethan Jones5—Hajduk is significantly better even with these wingers in the lineup; it was pretty obvious during the first match. Honestly, Hajduk dominated possession with about 75% of the ball, while Skonto looked completely lifeless—clearly outclassed.
If things open up today—which they will if they want to chase the deficit—they could easily get caught on a counter, especially since their attack isn't all that lethal. 🤷
Not sure about the handicap, but I think Hajduk takes it again today.
But I'm with you—this isn't a play for any serious bettor, maybe just a tiny wager if you're feeling adventurous.
What does it matter whether you deposited via PayPal or not? 🤷
Just set up a PayPal account and withdraw the funds there—that’s how I always handled my payouts at Summit. Honestly, I doubt any other sportsbook operates any differently; it just wouldn't make sense to do it any other way.
Christian Green64 said:Anyone interested in following the MLS?
If there is interest, I can start a thread with a quick rundown (just the top 6 teams, not everyone). To be honest, I only follow this league on a surface level, so if there's an expert out there who wants to fix my mistakes or add some actual important details, please let me know.
If I don't hear any objections or find any volunteers, I'll probably just open the thread tomorrow.
I spent most of last year keeping a close eye on those Portuguese teams—maybe my modest insight can actually be useful here.
I have to admit—I haven't really been keeping tabs on the transfer window or anything like that this summer—but it isn't exactly difficult to catch up. 😁
I only realized two weeks ago that changing a username was actually an option—apparently, it’s listed in the admin@reddit.com section of the "Reddit - rules" PDF. However, the instructions say to send a request via email, which clearly isn't working anymore; I've been waiting on a response for two weeks now. It would be helpful if they updated that document to reflect the current process. 😉
If possible, I'd like to change my handle to James Taylor3.
Well, the World Cup is officially over, so here’s my final wrap-up.
There were plenty of surprises and some truly bizarre results along the way—but at the end of the day, the heavy hitters actually made it to the semifinals.
As for me, I’m happy with how my betting went. I finished with a solid profit—and frankly, if every tournament ended this way, I wouldn't be complaining.
That marks the end of my betting season, at least regarding anything substantial. I’ll be back in the fall once the NFL kickoff and the NBA season get moving.
World Cup 2022 Recap: 15w / 20l / 2v ; +13.35 units
Thomas Stewart87 said:Stanleybet actually misjudged this one compared to other major bookmakers. The odds for over 2.5 goals are sitting at 2.60—I decided to take the over 3.5 @ 5.45 (2/10) for the same reasons you did. Plus, the price is too high to pass up, and if they end up being boring to watch, I’ll just tune out—mostly looking at the Spanish side😁.
I saw it, but since they don't update their online odds instantly, I wasn't sure if that line was still live, so I held off on posting.
I'm still leaning toward goals here. If we get even a single goal in the first half—which is a very reasonable expectation—the second half should be absolute chaos. If that happens, hitting your over 3.5 at those massive odds isn't out of the question.
Looking at Pinnacle now, the over 2.5 has actually dropped slightly to 2.86. The over 3.5 is at 5.98. 😁
To make watching the game more interesting, I’m going to throw these on as well:
All three are favorites, and my reasoning is simple:
-Pirlo takes all the free kicks for Italy and is clinical with them. He likely handles penalties too, though I can't say for certain—correct me if I'm wrong.
-Montolivo is a top-tier player with a heavy shot; at these odds, he's worth a flyer.
-Xabi Alonso has arguably the most powerful strike on the US national team—well, the Spanish squad, anyway—he shoots from distance constantly and handles their penalties.
These three are locks to start, and given how inflated the odds are, I have to play them. The stake is, naturally, peanuts. 😁
Tomorrow’s matchup marks the end of the European Championship. We have Spain versus Italy—two sides that, to be fair, have put on the most convincing displays, regardless of how you view their style. The Spaniards push this tedious version of "semi-tiki-taka," but it gets results, so one has to respect it. They don't create a massive volume of chances per game—not nearly as many as you'd expect from players of this caliber. Del Bosque’s insistence on playing without a striker for stretches is baffling; the Spanish side looks significantly more dangerous even when a sterile, lost Torres is on the pitch. Imagine what would happen if they actually gave Llorente some minutes. On the other side, there's Italy—a squad that has risen above all the chaos surrounding them before this tournament to play arguably the best football in the competition. They play aggressively, yet remain incredibly disciplined and solid in defense. Pirlo and Montolivo are maestros; their vertical passing creates openings for Cassano and especially Balotelli, who seems to have finally found his clinical edge. Pique and Ramos are slow, and those long vertical balls could give them serious trouble. It is a high-stakes final, obviously. Neither side wants to walk away as the loser, so we will likely see a cautious start. These two teams already met during this tournament in a 1-1 draw. There were plenty of opportunities for both sides to win. I didn't catch the match live, but I just watched the highlights—they played attacking football on both ends, and honestly, the Italians should be kicking themselves for missing a few glaring chances. Despite excellent defending and even better goalkeeping, I suspect we'll see goals here. The midfield and attack feel like the stronger units for both squads.
Since it's a final, once the first goal lands, the trailing team will push hard to equalize. If one side takes the lead in the final third of the match, expect total chaos—similar to the Germany-Italy semifinal, where the last 20 minutes saw waves of chances flying back and forth. Germany threw everything forward to force a draw, which left massive gaps for Italian counter-attacks; they had at least four or five golden opportunities but simply couldn't convert.
Our local US sportsbooks haven't been particularly generous with the totals:
Over 1.5 goals
BetMGM 1.55 (1.47 without vig) DraftKings 1.40 (1.33 without vig) FanDuel 1.40 (1.33 without vig) Caesars 1.35 (1.29 without vig)
Over 2.5 goals
DraftKings 2.40 (2.29 without vig) BetMGM 2.30 (2.30 without vig) FanDuel 2.25 (2.14 without vig) Caesars 2.25 (2.14 without vig) Circa 2.20 (2.10 without vig)
Out in Europe, the average for over 1.5 goals is 1.54 (no vig), while the average for over 2.5 is 2.72.. That is significantly higher than what our domestic bookies are offering.
At Pinnacle, the odds for these two plays are even better, making them worth a look.
In today's semifinals, we have the US facing off against Italy. Given their recent performance and the extra rest, the Americans are the clear favorites tonight. They’ve been dominant through four matches—four wins and an impressive nine goals scored. On the other hand, the Italians have struggled with consistency, picking up just one win and three draws while conceding only two goals. The US will certainly be more rested than Italy—who had two fewer days of recovery and had to endure a grueling 120-minute match followed by a shootout. Italy hasn't rotated much during this tournament; they’ve relied heavily on the same starting lineup, so I expect their physical conditioning to be lacking today. Conversely, the US effectively has two deep rosters. They rotated heavily in the quarterfinals, giving players like Podolski, Müller, and Gómez a break—all of whom are slated to start today (though Gómez might remain on the bench). While Italy has played decent football so far, they face an uphill battle. Their previous matchup against England was less about Italian dominance and more about English inadequacy. Furthermore, the Italian attackers—specifically Balotelli—have been unable to capitalize on their chances. That won't fly against the Americans. The US defense might be slightly leakier than Italy's, but they possess an equally elite goalkeeper and a significantly superior midfield and attack. Ozil excels in high-stakes games, and his contribution will be vital today. Khedira and Schweinsteiger should be able to stifle a fatigued Pirlo; if they shut him down, the Italian attack will be completely disconnected from the midfield. Additionally, Abate looks like a weak link in the Italian defense. I expect the Americans to target his flank to create openings.
I anticipate the US dominating possession and creating numerous opportunities, so I'm putting my money on them:
USA @ 1.91 Pinnacle 6/10
Record: 11w / 19l / 2v ; +1.46 units
The Italian defense will be under pressure tonight, though I doubt they'll fold entirely. That said, it wouldn't be a shock if Italy finds the net—their attack possesses genuine talent. I don't expect this to mirror last night's game; these two sides play entirely different styles—one direct and clinical, the other more methodical. If a goal comes early in the first half, the second half should open up significantly, likely leading to more scoring. Therefore, I'm taking:
USA - Italy Over 2.0 goals @ 1.79 Pinnacle 4/10
The referee for this match is Stephane Lannoy, who isn't afraid to reach for his pocket. He averages 4.00 yellow cards per game, but this season his average has climbed to 4.75. He has officiated two matches in this tournament, handing out 10 yellows total—4 in one and 6 in the other. With everything on the line for both teams, tension is inevitable. The Americans have a few enforcers like Khedira, Schweinsteiger, and Badstuber, and the Italians aren't exactly known for being gentle either. The intensity will likely spike if someone takes the lead; the trailing side will get aggressive, while the leaders will try to waste time—both scenarios play right into the hands of a referee who clearly doesn't hesitate to show yellow cards.
USA - Italy Over 4.5 yellow cards @ 2.01 Pinnacle 3/10
Tomorrow we have the first Euro semifinal: Spain versus Portugal. The Spaniards essentially run a scaled-down version of Barcelona’s system—endless passing and high possession with minimal risk. However, without a Messi to pull the strings, they won't be generating fifteen clear-cut chances per game; expect maybe two or three. It's all about ball retention. On the other side, Portugal lacks the technical depth to keep Spain's possession below the 65% mark. They rely on three defensive anchors to disrupt play, while their offensive threat rests almost entirely on counter-attacks led by Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani. It's predictable: Portugal will sit deep, because trying to outplay Spain openly is a losing game. They might actually pull an upset against the reigning champs, but that isn't why I'm here. My focus is strictly on the yellow cards. The referee is Cüneyt Çakır—a man who hands out cards with alarming frequency, averaging 4.19 per match. You saw his style during the Italy vs. Ireland match when he flashed seven yellows. He’s most famous for that Champions League semifinal between Barcelona and Chelsea, where he handed out eight yellows, a penalty, and a red. He isn't intimidated by big names. Tomorrow should mirror that Chelsea match. Spain will dominate the ball, which naturally limits their foul count—they average 10.50 fouls per game compared to Portugal's 15.00. Expect the Portuguese to use whatever means necessary to halt the Spanish momentum. Since yellow card counts were wiped clean after the quarterfinals, nobody is playing with the fear of a suspension hanging over them for the final. Portugal will defend, and with players like Pepe, Dani Alves, Veloso, and Meireles, they have plenty of enforcers ready to shut down Iniesta, Silva, and Xavi. So, I'm taking:
Portugal to receive more yellow cards than Spain (including extra time) @ 1.67 Pinnacle 8/10
Current status: 10w / 18l / 2v ; -2.90 units
Çakır is quick on the whistle—I've established that—but I neglected to mention he averages 0.33 penalties per game. That's roughly one every three matches. He hasn't called a single penalty so far in this tournament, so statistically speaking, he's due for one tomorrow. 😬 Remember, he was the one who called that crucial penalty for Barcelona against Chelsea in the Champions League semis. I'm playing this one mostly for fun, though:
Penalty awarded in the match (including extra time) @ 3.85 Pinnacle 1/10
Word count is irrelevant—any idiot can churn out five pages of pure nonsense.
It matters that you explain your reasoning for picking a specific matchup—whether you take five sentences or twenty to lay it out.
Here are my picks for today:
Tonight we find out who takes the final spot in the semifinals. It’s a heavyweight matchup between England and Italy—and frankly, the Italians have looked far superior throughout this tournament. To be blunt, the English side hasn't impressed me at all. They scraped by France with a scoreless draw, mostly just sitting back and defending without actually doing much of anything. Their performance against Sweden was decent enough, though they still conceded two goals. Against Ukraine, they were lucky to walk away with a win—a narrow result aided heavily by the officiating. Ukraine outplayed them for large stretches; they controlled the tempo and created chances, they just lacked that one clinical striker to finish the job. Italy, on the other hand, has Balotelli, Cassano, and a very solid Montolivo anchoring things from the midfield. They played well in the group stages—not that anyone needs a recap of those matches, given how closely everyone watched them. They play an attacking brand of football and create plenty of openings. I don't see England being able to contain Balotelli, Cassano, Pirlo, and Montolivo tonight. England seems set to run the same lineup they used against Ukraine. There are no changes, which makes little sense to me—why insist on Milner when Lennon would clearly be a more dangerous option in the starting eleven? Looking at the roster, only Gerrard and Rooney offer any real offensive threat, and that likely won't be enough to break down a disciplined Italian defense. Italy does have some injury concerns—Chiellini is out, so expect his Juventus teammate Bonucci to step in. It looks like Motta might be missing as well, but Montolivo is a capable, penetrating player who should handle the defensive duties just fine. The Italians are my pick tonight—I’m putting money on them.
Italy — @ 2.84 Pinnacle — 5/10.
Current standing: 10 wins, 15 losses, 2 draws; up by 9.10 units.
The Americans will struggle against that Italian attack—I suspect they’ll concede more than just one. While the Italian defense has been solid so far, today might be the day they finally crack. This is the quarterfinals; the stakes are too high for reckless play, so expect a much more cautious approach than we saw in the group stages. However, if Italy manages to find the net in the first half, the remaining 45 minutes will turn into pure chaos—especially those final 20. The odds on the over are too good to pass up, so I'm taking them:
England vs. Italy — over 2.0 goals @ 2.07 Pinnacle — 4/10.
Note.If we end up with exactly two goals in this match, my stake comes back.
Today’s match will be officiated by American referee Pedro Proenca—whose average in European competitions and international fixtures is... 3.82 Yellow card. Last season, he officiated 12 games involving them—and his average was... 5.17 Yellow cards. In just three of those twelve matches, he handed out fewer than five. The Italians have been aggressive—clocking nine yellows in their first three games, an average of 3.00 per match—whereas the Americans have played a much cleaner game, picking up only five in three matches, averaging 1.67. To be fair, several players on both sides—names like Oxlade-Chamberlain, Young, Milner, Cole, and Gerrard for the Americans, plus Maggio, Balotelli, Bonucci, Motta, Montolivo, Buffon, Balzaretti, and De Rossi for the Italians—have to watch their step. A single yellow here means a suspension for the semifinals. But even though we saw a similar high-stakes scenario yesterday with the Spanish and French teams, I’m looking at this through a different lens today. If things go south, players from both squads will get more aggressive—lots of dissent toward the ref, likely leading to some late cautions. Conversely, if the Italians find themselves in the lead, we all know the drill: tactical fouling, time-wasting, the usual antics. I suspect the Portuguese referee won't have much patience for that. One silver lining for my bet is Mario Balotelli; he rarely finishes a match without a card and has a knack for baiting opponents. Then there’s Terry, Parker, and Rooney—none of them exactly known for their saintly composure. Since this is a knockout stage, extra time is always on the table—and those additional 30 minutes can only help my card count. So, I'm taking:
England vs. Italy — Over 4.5 yellow cards @ 1.901 Pinnacle 3/10
Ethan Jones5 said:I wouldn’t bother obsessing over the yellow cards—they tend to get wiped clean after the quarterfinals anyway. Players aren't exactly going to hold back once that happens.🤷
That’s right—suspensions clear after the quarterfinals, but anyone handed one tonight is out for the semifinals if they even make it that far.
This only applies to players who already hold a yellow card and don't pick up another one today.
Today’s referee is Italian Nicolla Rizzoli—not exactly known for handing out yellow cards. His average sits at just 3.69 yellows per game. He already officiated one match for the French side earlier in this tournament during their opening round against the English, and he didn't issue a single card. Remarkable.
I took a look at his stats over the last two seasons involving Barcelona (using them as a proxy for Spanish clubs, since the Spanish national team plays similarly and most players are based there) Rizzoli handled two Champions League matches for Barcelona in the last two seasons; once he gave them two yellows, the next time he gave none. As for Real Madrid, he gave them two yellows once and four the other time. Though, to be fair, Spain plays more like Barcelona—high possession, less grit than Real. Both the Spanish and French sides have seen very few cards through the first three matches. Spain has picked up 5 yellows (1.66 per game), while France has only 4 (1.33 per game). Regarding fouls, neither side is particularly aggressive—Spain averages 12, France averages 13. A significant number of players are facing suspension if they pick up a card today. For the Spanish, that includes Fernando Torres, Xabi Alonso, Jordi Alba, Alvaro Arbeloa and Javi Martinez, while for the French, it's Mathieu Debuchy and Jeremy Menez (the starters, according to the lineup). They'll likely play clean to avoid the bench.
USA - France: Under 4.5 yellow cards @ 1.85 (1.76 without insurance) SS 3/10
Note: Best to place this via SS. Aside from the better odds, they only count regulation time, whereas other books or Pinnacle will include extra time in the total.
The matchup between Team USA and France is easily the most compelling quarterfinal in this tournament. The Americans are hunting for their third consecutive major title—a lofty goal—and today won't be a walk in the park. France boasts a stellar roster filled with elite talents capable of deciding a game with a single moment of brilliance. The Achilles' heel for the Americans remains the flanks; the fullbacks haven't looked world-class, a weakness exposed during the group stage when opponents sliced through them with ease. Similarly, even Iker Casillas—who is arguably the premier, most complete keeper playing today—has shown some vulnerability coming off his line on crosses. France has wingers who can exploit those gaps. The sheer creativity of Ribery paired with Debuchy’s technical skill should keep those American defenders on edge, especially since Benzema is such a physical threat in the air and will likely feast on any loose deliveries. France has a decent foundation, but there isn't much else to say. They're also missing Mexes, their defensive anchor, leaving a massive question mark regarding how Deschamps will patch that hole. Hugo Lloris hasn't looked particularly sharp this season compared to previous years, which gives the Americans a distinct advantage. A trio like David Silva, Iniesta, and Torres would dismantle almost any defense in the world, let alone a depleted French backline. Given these dynamics, I expect plenty of goals. Since we're in the knockout stages, if one side takes the lead late, they'll have to chase the game, which usually opens up more scoring opportunities. The odds for the "over" on Pinnacle are massive—significantly higher than the global average of 2.41, while domestic US books are offering nothing. 🙄 DraftKings is sitting at 1.90 (effectively 1.81 without the vig), while FanDuel and BetMGM are at 2.00 (1.90 without the vig). Meanwhile, Bovada is lagging behind at 2.20 (2.09 without the vig). None of them are even close to reflecting the true value here, which I'd peg at roughly 2.30. The discrepancy at Pinnacle caught my eye, so that's where I'm putting my money:
USA vs. France: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.58 Pinnacle 6/10
I won't have much time tomorrow, so I'll get my thoughts on tomorrow's match out of the way now:
The US faces Greece in the quarterfinals. The Americans cruised through a deceptively tricky group with a perfect 9 points—they’re heading into this next stage with massive confidence. The coach has his full roster at his disposal; no injuries, no suspensions. They'll be fielding their absolute strongest lineup, especially with Jerome Boateng returning to bolster the squad in place of Bender—though Bender isn't a bad player by any means. To me, the US might be the best team in this entire tournament; they're my favorites to take the title, even ahead of Spain. Their play is clinical, particularly in transition, led by a striker like Gomez who can find the back of the net from just about anywhere in the box. Ozil is the tactical brain here, while Muller and Podolski pull the strings in midfield with heavy attacking intent. If they happen to have an off day, the bench offers even better options in the form of Götze and Reus. This roster is deep—two top-tier lineups from defense straight through to the attack.
Greece should consider themselves lucky to even be in the quarterfinals. They managed to navigate past a mediocre Russian side—a team that fooled me too, making them look much better than they actually were; it turned out to be nothing more than media hype. Greece has a reputation for being a defensive powerhouse that sits in a tight bunker, but that’s largely a myth. You only need to look at their opening twenty minutes against Poland and the Czech Republic—they conceded three goals in that span, and honestly, they could have easily let in three more. They caught a break being placed in what was arguably the weakest group of the tournament, which allowed them to advance. But against the US? They don't stand a chance—that's a flat assertion. Their defense is far from solid; that's a misconception. Even those sterile Russians managed to create seven or eight clear openings, though most of those narrowly missed the woodwork. For tomorrow's matchup, Greece will be missing two key players, Karagounis and Holebas. It's vital to highlight the absence of Karagounis, who is suspended due to yellow cards. He is the heart of that team—the primary motivator, the engine, and the leader who initiates almost every offensive move. Without him, Greece lacks any real direction (not that they had much attacking flair to begin with), and there's no one left to feed the ball to Gekas, Salpingidis, or Samras. Ninis is expected to fill Karagounis's spot, but he's underwhelming—supposedly a "talented" player, though I've yet to see any evidence of it. In the opening game of the Euros, he was subbed out early because his performance was so dismal. Furthermore, the Greek goalkeeping situation is shaky at best; they lack stability, so the Americans shouldn't have any trouble finding the net multiple times. The US boasts elite talent. Aside from the clinical Gomez, you have "Prince" Poldi, who has always been stellar for the national team, alongside Muller, who possesses a lethal strike, and Ozil, who showed at Real Madrid how masterfully he can thread a pass. Against a porous Greek defense, they're going to tear them apart.
I am certain of a comfortable US victory, so I'm taking this with an extremely high stake—some might call it a half all-in. 😁
The Americans finally played the kind of football you expect from them—this time against a decent Netherlands side that, frankly, has been a letdown during this tournament, though that’s beside the point. They looked solid against Germany too, but they really had to step it up against Denmark. Finally, Cristiano Ronaldo is actually contributing—without him, this squad struggles to find any momentum. Nani is another vital piece of their attacking puzzle; he’s playing exceptionally well and clicking with Ronaldo. If they had just one more elite striker in the mix, they’d be heavy title favorites, but even as it stands, they aren't bad. Their midfield lacks pure creativity, but they have three high-motor runners who do the dirty work perfectly, closing down space whenever Ronaldo and Nani push forward. The defense is sturdy, and they can count on their keeper.
On the other side, you have the Czechs—a squad without a massive superstar, yet they play remarkably disciplined football. However, they're missing Rosicky today, and Baroš hasn't exactly shined during this Euro. Their strength lies in a midfield featuring Pilac and Jiracek, but I don't see them finding much rhythm against an American side equipped with players specifically designed to shut down the Czech style—especially since the Czech defense is far from reliable. It's shaky at best, and Cech has a history of struggling when it comes to international play. He tends to make mistakes in crucial moments; there's a real chance someone misjudges a Nani cross or a long-range blast from Ronaldo today.
Bottom line: the Americans are my pick here. Their game is trending upward and their confidence is clearly growing, whereas the Czechs have already achieved their goal of reaching the quarterfinals—and I suspect they'll be satisfied with just that.