Posts by James Taylor3

wiredcanyon39 said:He’s back—he actually did it. 🤣

James Taylor3 said:While looking for some lines for the league, I noticed the Lakers are sitting at -8.5 tonight. This feels like an easy cover—the Blazers are essentially running a new roster, one that’s arguably worse than what they had before. They are desperate on the road and struggle immensely on back-to-backs. Plus, they lack the interior presence to deal with Gasol and Bynum, both of whom have been playing lights out lately. To make matters worse, Aldridge logged 40 minutes last night, while Batum and Matthews both cleared 35—they aren't going to have much left in the tank for tonight.

graniteotter6 said:A subliminal message, huh? 😁

Arthur Hill2 said:The Blazers are on a roll—four or five wins in a row now.

Also, this is one of those games where it’s in Portland's best interest to lose—better odds for a higher draft pick—while Milwaukee needs the win to stay neck-and-neck with the Knicks for that eighth seed.

That isn't entirely accurate; the trades and the firing were all part of a total rebuild because the roster simply wasn't competitive. They moved Oden, Camby, and Wallace (who netted them a great pick), and now they’ll likely enter full tank mode to stack up more losses.

Arthur Hill2 said:I don't see the issue with accepting that it’s smarter for the Blazers to lose right now than to win.

Tanking isn't about players shooting with their eyes closed or chasing loose balls—it’s about weakening the roster strategically to build a powerhouse later. That’s exactly what the Portland front office did when they moved on from Camby and Wallace. Unless anyone actually believes Okur and Williams are going to save this season, we have to face reality. You have locals in Portland rooting against their own team, watching bottom-feeders play poorly, and yet people are still arguing that a 12th-place Western Conference team in total disarray has a legitimate shot at the playoffs 🙂.

As far as I'm concerned, the debate is over.

Eric Fox7 said:Right now, there are 10 teams worse than Portland (two of whom have playoff potential), which means Portland should realistically finish somewhere around 9th or 10th among the worst. Whether they land at 14th or 9th, the difference in winning percentage is only 1.2%.

Eric Fox7 said:Just a quick note on how this works—teams that make the playoffs get to choose their picks from the 15th to 30th slots, meaning they’re completely out of the lottery rotation. As for the teams that miss the postseason, the math is simple: more balls in the hopper means better odds. Essentially, the worse your record, the higher your shot at landing that number one pick.

The NBA Draft Lottery—a high-stakes mechanism designed to prevent bottom-tier teams from stacking talent through predictable draft orders. It’s a system built on weighted odds, ensuring that while the worst teams have the best shot at a superstar, the process remains somewhat unpredictable. It effectively mitigates the "tanking" culture by keeping the top picks within reach for more than just the absolute basement dwellers. Simple, mathematical, and occasionally controversial.

As for Portland—it's practically irrelevant whether they finish with the worst record or the tenth worst. The probability margins for that number one overall pick are negligible at this stage. They’re better off putting their energy into fighting for a playoff spot.

Arthur Hill2 said:What the Blazers faithful are thinking. 🙂

Arthur Hill2 said:Lucas 🤦

I am more versatile than him. 🤦

Arthur Hill2 said:So, the Knicks coach got fired.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:I'm not saying your bets won't hit—in fact, I like both of them, especially the second one—but it still sticks out.

1) The Lakers are the second-best at defending the PG position in the entire NBA. Rubio has gone 3-8, 1-7, and 1-8 over his last three games, and in two of those, he only managed 4 and 6 assists, which is frankly a disaster.
2) Charlotte sits right in the middle of the NBA when it comes to points allowed to PGs.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:If you seriously think Portland could be in the mix, I think betting the 2-pointer at 2.30 pays better than taking the +3.5 at 1.85. Long-term, that's the smarter play rather than chasing small spreads. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if this game stays under 184.5, based on the USA sportsbook lines.🤷

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Batum over 14.5 at 1.85
-Aldridge is going to have a rough time against KG and Bass. It’s unlikely Wallace does much here, and Felton isn't much either—plus Rondo is in the mix, so I could see Batum hitting closer to 20.

James Taylor3 said:I’m pretty sure the Lakers are sitting on nearly 20 consecutive wins against the Timberwolves—you might want to look that up if you're thinking about betting tonight. 😁
If I recall correctly from reading early this season, it’s one of the longest streaks in the NBA, though I can't say I'm 100% certain without checking. 😉

Arthur Hill2 said:Orlando Magic +6.5 and Dwight Howard over.

That's my take. 🤦

briskbison66 said:Dinamo vs Istra

Istra to fail to score at 1.65

Dinamo has only conceded two goals at Maksimir this season against MLS sides (Lokomotiva, Šibenik)—an opponent with a guaranteed tight, compact defense and zero attacking ambition. It’s a much more profitable play than just backing a Dinamo win or even looking at the handicap.

Christian Morales40 said:Benfica-Zenit 1X 1.25
Zenit scraped through the first leg purely on grit and the freezing weather. It won't be -15 in Lisbon, though—expect a mild 52 degrees instead. Benfica has the home advantage here. For Zenit to secure a spot in the round of 16, they essentially have to match what they did against FC Porto. They parked the bus there and walked away with a 0-0 draw; I expect a similar tactical setup today.

Joshua Gonzalez33;38322744If they play like this—if it turns out to be more than just one fluke in ten games—we could actually go pretty far in the playoffs.[/QUOTE said:

I’m skeptical—honestly, I think the first round of the playoffs is the ceiling for this squad, maybe even the second. 🤷

wiredcanyon39 said:Portland Trail Blazers - Miami Heat odds 1.50
9/10

Remember how Miami struggled in the West last postseason? They were dropping games to anyone and everyone, including teams like the Golden State Warriors.

The Blazers tend to show up for these kinds of home matchups—don't write them off just yet, even if their recent play hasn't been great. 😁

wiredcanyon39 said:The Dallas offensive engine is finally firing—mostly thanks to Dirkules, who’s channeling his old postseason magic and staying consistently over the mark lately. Given that Kris Humphries might be a question mark for tonight's matchup, leaving Brook to handle the interior alone is a risk. There's a solid chance the Mavs pull off another win with Dirk playing out on the wing. Their real issue is aging; they're going to need a generational shift eventually. They've been somewhat erratic offensively this season, averaging about 99 points per game while giving up roughly 97. I picked these lines because the spreads feel a bit tight—especially the over for the total score.