Posts by James Taylor3

Same questions, every single day.

Jeremy Kelly3 said:it’s going to take them a while...
Unless someone actually cracked the code on an over/under formula—in which case the sportsbook probably just shut it down.
I don't even know what to think anymore.🙂

Subtract the 7-8 hour time difference from the US and you'll realize that in some parts of the country, the sun hasn't even come up yet.

They especially tend to push those lines out on games where a key player—or several—is sitting out with an injury.

Well, last night was a total washout—lost both bets. 🙂

Both games were neck-and-neck until the final whistle—could have easily gone either way—but I’m not losing much sleep over that Portland win. 😁

Chris Ortiz said:Welcome aboard, pal. Just a heads-up—if you start getting skeptical about my picks like some stubborn old-timer at a sportsbook, you aren't going to have a very good time here.☕

I'll take you down right now, Benet.

🤣

Arthur Hill2 said:The Pacers have their third game in three nights tomorrow—they absolutely dismantled the Nets yesterday, too. With Brooks back in the lineup for Brooklyn, I’m curious to see where the betting lines land on the spread.

I’ve watched them a few times lately—they’re a mess, honestly. Their play is just abysmal. I was actually going to bet against them last night, but since Vareao was out and Irving wasn't a lock for Cleveland, I decided to pass. 🙂

Eric Fox7So, you’re an old-school Knicks fan, huh? 😁

Eric Fox7 said:Not really—I only pulled for them during the Jordan era because I couldn't stand Chicago, and I always had a soft spot for Stephon Marbury.

Yes, I'm old—I get it. 😢

But honestly, the NBA just isn't the same without a competitive Knicks squad. 🙂

I see. ☕

I know you can actually hold a conversation about basketball in the other sports threads sometimes—I had this impression you were a Bulls fan, when apparently it’s quite the opposite. 🤣

Joshua Garcia8 said:Just like how most people don't understand the basics.
Let me ask you:
1. Did you think that disguise would actually work?
2. Are you aware you're breaking the rules?
3. Did you really think changing your handle would change the outcome if no one was responding to the last one?
4. Goodbye. 👋

🙂

I was actually going to mention that the username sounded familiar—and no, not because of Robert De Niro. 🤣

Keith Moore21 said:Man, look at Portland—now that we're playing them, they go out and win on the road without Aldridge... and Wallace suddenly plays his best game away from home (despite all the criticism regarding his perimeter play) and just goes nuts last night (tying it up 4-4). 🙂

And not a single leg hit. 😢

Look, I care less about my parlay than I do about the fact that they finally managed an away win. 😁

Chris Ortiz said:Yeah, I don't trust them either—even though I'm pulling for them. They’re a solid squad and have one of the league's elite players, but a team that blows this many close finishes isn't exactly a reliable bet. You take them when the odds are high because they genuinely have the talent to win any night. Besides, they handled Chicago and Miami earlier this year, yet struggled against just about everyone else.
Orlando looks like a great value play today. They've been playing well lately. Hawes is going to have a hard time dealing with Howard.

I don't trust my Portland team either. 😁

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the announcer during the Dallas-Portland game a few days ago mentioned Portland was 1-8 in close games—within three points. After losing to Dallas tonight, they're sitting at 1-9.

With both tradition and momentum on the Warriors' side, I expect them to pull it off tonight.

Houston vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma -3.5

Odds: 1.99

Wager: 5/10

Both teams are playing on the back end of a back-to-back—though they aren't entering this matchup on equal footing. Oklahoma had three full days of rest prior to their easy win over Utah last night (a 26-point blowout where the starters saw significantly reduced minutes), which matters. Houston, meanwhile, just wrapped up a brutal six-game road trip in ten days with a loss to Memphis. They aren't exactly fresh. While Houston plays well at home, they’re facing a powerhouse tonight—Oklahoma is arguably the best team in the West and boasts the third-ranked offense in the league. Then there’s the Martin problem; his recent form has been abysmal. He actually finished last night with zero points—the first time he’s done that as a starter—and his post-game comments weren't much better. He claimed he wasn't worried about the lack of shots, essentially saying he was just "chilling." That's the team's leading scorer for you. 🤦

Houston has dropped two straight, whereas Oklahoma has been remarkably consistent all season, winning four of their last five.
This marks the third meeting between these two this season, and Oklahoma has taken both so far. They won convincingly at home by 15—leading by as much as 25—and squeaked out a 98-95 road win.
Over the last two seasons, they’ve met six times; Oklahoma took five of those. Houston’s lone victory came by a single point.

Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at defending the glass, which means plenty of lanes for Westbrook and Harden to attack the rim tonight.
Furthermore, along with Sacramento, Houston allows the most offensive rebounds per game (13.8). A team with Ibaka and Westbrook in the paint will certainly exploit that—that's 14 extra possessions per game. Oklahoma isn't perfect on the boards either, but I give them the edge here. Expect Oklahoma—specifically the trio of Westbrook, Harden, and Durant—to live at the free-throw line.

33w/32l ; +36,258 units ; ROI: +11.37%

Golden State Warriors - Portland Trail Blazers
Pick: Golden State Warriors -5.5

Odds: 2.00

Betting Shop: Pinnacle

Unit: 9/10

Here is what I wrote three weeks ago when these two squads faced off:

James Taylor3 said:This is Portland's third game in three days—a classic back-to-back-to-back stretch. They picked up two wins at home, but now they’re heading on the road to face the Warriors, who have dominated them on their own floor, winning 10 of the last 11 matchups. Portland struggles significantly on the road when playing on zero rest; they've been a 1-4 team in those specific scenarios this season. That said, they played both previous days leading up to this. They handled the Memphis Grizzlies easily last night, though every starter logged over 30 minutes.
Portland is arguably the more talented roster compared to Golden State, but let's not forget how the Phoenix Suns looked during a back-to-back—a dismal 25-point blowout loss.

However, Golden State is much better rested. They've only played twice in the last six days and they're at home, where they historically feast on the Blazers. Monta Ellis has been in incredible form lately, averaging a massive 32.3 points against Portland over their last four meetings. Plus, Stephen Curry is back in the lineup, which changes everything—especially since he always produces against Portland. On the flip side, LaMarcus Aldridge has averaged a mere 13.9 points in his last seven road trips to face the Warriors, coupled with poor shooting splits.
Furthermore, Portland is far less effective away from home, scoring an average of 13 fewer points than they do in their own arena—that's a significant gap.

I expect high-scoring outings from Ellis and Curry, as Paul Matthews and especially Nelson Felton won't be able to contain them. Other matchups should remain competitive. Ben Wallace dealt with some minor finger issues last night, but he should still be dominant against Tyler Wright on both ends of the court. Aldridge holds the edge over Lee defensively—and significantly so—though the advantage is narrower on the offensive end.

Ultimately, this pick is based on the Blazers' fatigue, their poor performance in these types of situations, and the Warriors' consistent home dominance in this head-to-head series.

Golden State ended up winning that one, 101-93.

Looking ahead to today's matchup, the factors I mentioned earlier still hold water—specifically Portland's disparity between home and road performance and their struggles on back-to-backs.
Additionally, they are missing their best player, LaMarcus Aldridge, due to a wrist injury. He's easily one of the top three power forwards in the league this season. You could see the impact of his absence last night; they dropped a 15-point game at home to a mediocre Washington Wizards squad.
Moreover, other players saw heavy workloads, such as Mewitt Batum and Ben Wallace, who logged 43 and 42 minutes respectively.
Similarly, Mikkel McConnell is likely to continue rotating the starting five, pulling ineffective players like Nelson Felton and Paul Matthews for Tim Crawford and Mewitt Batum.

And let's not ignore the momentum: Golden State has won 12 of their last 13 matchups against Portland at home. The Warriors are healthy, playing well, and riding a three-game win streak where they scored over 100 points in every contest (102, 106, 109). They also had a day of rest before today.

So, I'm leaning heavily into this one.

If only Pinnacle would set the line at -3.5 for the Golden State Warriors as an SS—that would be the dream. Given their current slump, the Portland Trail Blazers' struggles, the back-to-back fatigue factor, their terrible home record against Golden State, and the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge isn't even playing...

I’d be heavily backing that. 🙂

Nicholas Chase34 said:It’s always entertaining when someone starts bragging about a quote based on a pick that didn't even land. 🙂 🙄

As if any of this actually matters—as long as he was "right" and used some incredibly convincing logic to get there. ☕

Don't waste your energy on nonsense; just listen to wiredcanyon39:

James Taylor3 said:Don't be ridiculous—Marcus Camby is an elite center, easily a double-double average guy.
The issue is his injuries—they keep derailing him—and he isn't doing anything to help his case during his good games, like staying put or even publicly looking for a team to pick him up.

27 points on efficient shooting, 13 rebounds (6 offensive), 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 turnovers, and 1 block. ☕

Artest is the king—he handled that ridiculous question perfectly. 🤷

boldmoose18 said:I couldn't agree more with that statement.

👍

boldgull20 said:That doesn't mean anything—it has zero to do with the forum. In the US, they release the lines the night before,
then there's a correction at 11 AM their time, which is 5 PM for us, and then Supersport and the others just copy them.
It’s been happening like this for years. If that were true, why didn't they adjust the Jazz handicap?
Is that maybe a sign it won't hit?
The spread gets adjusted in Vegas based on every five or six-figure bet placed there,
plus there are other reasons for adjustments—statements, injuries, etc.
They wrote that on Covers; it's not because of a few random people from Moldova (or the US, or Mexico—it's all the same to them).

No, it isn't. It happens because massive bets on specific parlays—the kind usually posted on the betting forums—are crushing the odds. That's all there is to it.

Forget Las Vegas; don't get carried away. 🤣

The worst part is that people assume when a line for a handicap, total, or player prop drops from 1.85 to 1.70, it automatically means that parlay is a lock. I've rarely seen anyone actually play those boosted 2.00 lines; everyone just chases the 1.70.

Meanwhile, our local bookies fleece us right out of the gate with those 1.85-1.85 lines, and then once the US adjusts the spread by a single point, they drop even those measly 1.85s down to 1.70. 🙏

I've also noticed that Supersport sets the over/under totals one or two points higher than, say, Pinnacle. It’s obvious people favor the overs over the unders, so they bake in a little extra cushion to protect themselves.

Let’s be real—Kaman is an elite center, easily a double-double average guy.
The problem is he can't stay healthy—and his best performances don't mean much when you factor in the constant roster shuffling and the public begging for any team to pick him up.

Play, seriously, when you see this, check how many points in the paint the Denver Nuggets scored against the Indiana Pacers tonight. I’d bet it was at least 70.

The Philadelphia 76ers covered easily—Dallas could probably do the same.

I'm going to watch the Minnesota Timberwolves until they finish up, then hit the sack.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:I went heavy on the Philadelphia 76ers spread and Al Jefferson over ☕ just a while back. It took about four hours for the news to hit the Cleveland Cavaliers site that Kyrie Irving isn't playing.

I haven't even been online since this afternoon—haven't followed any of it, so I'm out of the loop. Was the line sitting at 7.5 the whole time?

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -7.5

Odds: 1.99

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Unit: 7/10

I wasn't planning on touching this one—until I noticed a massive gap in the lineup. The Cavaliers are missing their center tonight, and he's crucial both offensively and defensively. He’s having a career year right now, averaging 10.8 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. More importantly, he leads the league in offensive rebounding; losing him means the Cavs effectively lose about four extra possessions per game. Then there's Kyrie Irving, who is still out dealing with concussion symptoms. These two are essentially the only high-level talent on the roster alongside Al Jefferson, so the Cavs are going to feel this void. On the other side, the 76ers are deep, balanced, and possess arguably the best bench in the league. They're healthy too—aside from starting center Andrew Hawes, but Nikola Vučević can step in easily enough.

Both teams were grinding through tough matchups last night, but the Cavs had it worse, playing into overtime with heavy minutes across the board—three players even cleared the 42-minute mark. Oh, and Tony Parker is out for them tonight as well. With such a thin rotation and key pieces missing, they simply can't match up with a powerhouse like Philly. I'm taking the spread.

32w/31l ; +34,328 units ; ROI: +11.18%

Dallas vs Portland
Pick: Dallas -4.5

Odds: 1.98

Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Unit: 5/10

Nicholas Chase34 pretty much covered all the bases—I'm inclined to agree—so I’ll just add this:

Portland had an unexpectedly grueling matchup against the Charlotte Hornets on the road last night; they barely scraped by in the final minutes. LaMarcus Aldridge, Ben Wallace, and Wilson Felton all saw heavy minutes. On the other hand, while Dallas played last night too, their rotation was lighter than Portland's following their win over the Minnesota Timberwolves—which makes sense given how deep the Mavericks' bench is. Dallas also hasn't dealt with a schedule as punishing as Portland's lately. Plus, Portland isn't exactly playing great basketball; they struggle on the road and tend to fall apart during back-to-back sets. Dirk Nowitzki is playing like an MVP again, and the Blazers' defense is going to have a hard time containing him. Last year in the playoffs, the Blazers managed to take two home games against Dallas—including that wild comeback from down 24 in the second half—but Brandon Roy isn't in the picture today 😢 . Meanwhile, Dallas handled their home games in that series quite easily. Dallas is finding their rhythm and will be dangerous come playoff time; they should handle business tonight. The spread isn't too steep—I expect Rick Carlisle's squad to cover.

I’m also leaning toward the Dallas handicap. The Trail Blazers have been struggling over the last 4 or 5 games—they look miserable on back-to-backs, not to mention their dismal road record.
Last night, they barely scraped by a terrible Charlotte Hornets squad that was playing without three starters, including their top two scorers. 🙂

Honestly, Wilson Felton is just a subpar player... I don't get why they let Andre Miller walk so easily. 😠

He would fit right in with this roster.

In the end, Portland barely scraped by, while the Lakers were nowhere near competitive—it was honestly pathetic.

I swear on my life—if you catch me watching the Lakers play even one more game this season, you have my permission to take me out with a shovel, a baseball bat, or whatever blunt object is lying around. This level of basketball they're putting up is "impressive" in all the wrong ways, game after game.

Here’s just more proof that Dwight Howard is the most overrated player in the league.

Seriously, Portland, what are you doing right now? 🤦

The Hornets are leading at the half without Jack, Landry, Kaman, Smith, or Gordon.

Vasquez, Bellinelli, and Ayon—you guys are killing me. 🙂

The Lakers can’t buy a bucket to save their lives.