33w/35l ; +17,258 units ; ROI: +5.11%
Phoenix vs Golden State
Pick: Under 206.5 total points
Odds: 1.917
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Unit: 8/10
The line feels a bit inflated for tonight. These aren't those old-school run-and-gun squads that were routinely dropping 130 points back in the day.
Phoenix is a veteran group—two of their starters combined are pushing 80 years old. I'm talking about Steve Nash and Tim Hill. That said, Marcin Gortat might actually be their most impactful player this season; he’s finally seeing real minutes and proving his worth. He's got genuine double-double potential, so the Suns made a smart move there. The rest of the roster is finding its rhythm after a shaky start, specifically Gerald Dudley and Al Frye. Even the rookie, Marcus Morris, looks promising, particularly on the defensive end.
Golden State has struggled on the road (3-8), and they haven't even managed to beat Phoenix at home in their last 13 meetings. The last time the Warriors took a win in Arizona was all the way back in 2005. Monta Ellis has been inconsistent, and frankly, he hasn't looked great this season even when healthy.
A quick look at the numbers: Golden State ranks 4th offensively, averaging 99.0 points per game, while Phoenix sits at 16th with an average of 94.3.
Defensively, Golden State gives up 100.6 points per game, whereas Phoenix allows just 96.8.
Injury reports are relatively clean for both sides. Phoenix is fully intact heading into tonight, while Golden State has been missing center Kwame Brown since the start of the season, and they'll be without Andris Biedrins tonight as well. It looks like Andre Udoh is healthy and available to suit up.
Both teams are facing their final matchup before the All-Star Break (Phoenix doesn't play again until Jan 3rd, and Golden State isn't back until Feb 28th, so they have plenty of downtime). They'll likely bring maximum intensity on the defensive end—there's no reason to save anything for later.
They've met twice already this season, and both contests stayed well under tonight's projected total. The first meeting in Phoenix on Jan 2nd ended 102-91 for the home team, and the second, held in Golden State, saw the Warriors win 102-96. Total scores were 193 and 198 respectively.
In my view, tonight's line is overshooting by about 5 or 6 points, so I’m taking this with high confidence. While I think Phoenix is in better shape and likely to win, the under is the much more attractive play here.
I don't see either side breaking the 100-point mark, let alone anyone clearing 110.
