Posts by briskbison66

Eric Fox7 said:If you ask me, the Manchester United derby is one of those matches best left skipped. It’s a textbook "no bet" scenario when you're looking at the final score. With all three possible outcomes wide open, any tiny, insignificant detail could end up deciding the whole thing.
In my view, the only play worth considering here is betting on the over. If you look at the last three head-to-head matchups, they’ve churned out 17 goals, which tells you everything you need to know about the offensive potential between these two. That said, I wouldn't be getting reckless with this one; don't go breaking the bank. This is strictly a casual bet for a little fun, something you toss onto a standard parlay just to see if the trend holds. 🤷

If you ask me, taking the penalty and the red card is actually the smarter play.

He’s racked up five red cards this season alone. One of those standout blunders happened during the Blackburn Rovers vs Wigan Athletic match back in November, where he completely lost control of the situation by letting a goal stand after Morten Gamst Pedersen decided to take a corner kick all by himself.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/foo...#ixzz1tY4sBzVv

The guy is talking about red cards—claiming five is an excessive amount—and then just relying on pure gut feeling when it comes to penalties. It’s a pretty flimsy argument, especially considering how many calls United has been getting lately against Young. At this rate, you can almost guarantee one of those erratic players over at City is going to stumble into a penalty too.

The over 5.5 yellow cards market also looks pretty tempting here. It’s shaping up to be a high-stakes, tense matchup—exactly the kind of game where nerves run high and tempers flare on the pitch.

Kevin Ramos21 said:To be honest, I’d give the edge to United here. They seem perfectly comfortable with a draw, so they’ll likely just sit back, play on the counter, and probably nick at least one goal out of nothing. While a split decision is definitely a plausible outcome, I still lean toward them.
I’ve definitely had those moments where I felt absolutely certain about a result, only to watch everything fall apart right in front of me. It happens.
The bet actually lands; we might even see a 0-0 deadlock.

AC Milan vs FC Barcelona 😁

Roger Phillips said:Kongsvinger-Ham Kam 1 1.45
Both of Ham Kam's goalkeepers are dealing with injuries,
specifically starting keeper Ivar Ronningen and the backup Dyre Ekeberg Schjerve.
They've got a junior stepping in to guard the net today.
Kongsvinger is a powerhouse right now, sitting in a much stronger position and better overall form, so it would take a literal miracle for them to walk away without adding more points to their tally against Ham Kam.
They’ve been riding a 10-2-0 streak since Tom Nordlie took over, and while this is a local derby, Kongsvinger simply holds all the cards here.

If an x2 is considered a miracle, then what on earth is a 0-3?😁

stormyseal9 said:Fine, I'm glad you finally decided to follow my leads😍, you're lucky you started tracking me these last few days because before this, I went about 15 days without a single win.🤷

Let’s take advantage today of the mental fog affecting the bookies; with the playoffs approaching, they've become reckless with their margins.🤣

Morant Over 17.5 at 1.85
-I had to take this gift; the reason for such a thin margin tonight is likely just a bad matchup, but after a recent dry spell, this was bound to happen. I'm banking on a different outcome today once you look at how many key players are out for the Blazers and Morant's current form as he slowly emerges as the team leader. Portland consistently puts up over 100 points, so Morant should easily contribute a massive chunk to that total.
Nowitzki Over 22.5 at 1.85
-The same logic applies to Dirk; he clearly rested last night and played just enough to be ready for the Bulls today. They are fighting for that 6th seed, and if you look at recent scoring outputs (Houston 35, Utah 40, LAL 24, Por 24, GSW 27), the trend is clear.
Houston (-12.5) vs GSW 2 at 1.85
-After a six-game losing streak, Houston is now entirely dependent on other teams to stay in the playoff hunt. GSW has also been hit hard by injuries to Lee, Curry, and several others, leading to seven straight losses, though they are somehow staying afloat thanks to Klay. Given that, I'm betting they won't lose by more than 12.
Jennings Over 18.5 at 1.85
-Consider the bookmakers' logic: his last margin was 19.5, and he dropped 27 against a much tougher Indiana team, yet instead of raising the line, they lowered it. Using actual logic, his last five games were (27, 25, 16, 20, 22). Looking at head-to-head matchups, he’s put up 34 and 17, especially since the Nets are decimated by injuries and the Bucks regularly score north of 100.
Phoenix (210.5) vs Denver Under at 1.85
-The Suns are fighting for a playoff spot while Denver is practically a lock. These two teams used to be known for shootouts with zero defense, but things have shifted; I'm not saying they play elite defense now, but the scoring has dropped significantly. Look at their last three meetings—all unders (204, 201, 195)—and in Denver's last ten games, only one exceeded this margin. That's plenty of evidence for the under.

A slightly larger stake than usual, standard procedure.

I hope my projections hold up; the true test will be felt in the wallet.😉

I followed those ones you called "sure things," and Morant really was a gift, but obviously, I chose Nowitzki over Jennings, considering Nowitzki was hovering right around 17 points with 10 minutes left, while Jennings finished in the third quarter.🙄

They already put out the preview for the Super Bowl yesterday. At the very least, the odds look interesting.

Even though they have a brutal match coming up on Tuesday or Wednesday, I’m expecting another wild game packed with goals, cards, and pure chaos, so here is my pick for tomorrow:

both teams to score 3 or more (1.9)
red card (2.10 ....I've never seen the odds this low for that, but still 😁 )
yellow cards (7.5 over 1.8)

On different betting slips, obviously... I don't think I need to provide any special explanations here 🤷 . Regarding the yellow cards, I'm expecting Real Madrid alone to rack up 8 yellows, though I still need to wait for the lineups (Khedira, Marcelo, Pepe, Ramos, Busquets, Mascherano... I'm pretty sure they're already pre-booked for cards so the ref doesn't even have to work hard), and as for the red, it would be a total lock if Pepe played as a defensive midfielder, but even as he is, the ref will have him in his sights after he inevitably stomps on Messi.

As for the match itself, it's not worth playing fixed outcomes... honestly, I don't plan on ever betting on FC Barcelona as a sure thing again after they screwed me over with Chelsea FC (x2). It's going to be a chaotic game where anything can happen.

Since this is my first actual season betting on the NBA, I’m trying to get a handle on the schedule. Does anyone know exactly when the playoffs kick off, and roughly how many games per day we should expect during that opening round? Thanks in advance.

Sportsbooks still way too frequently set their odds based on big-name reputation rather than the actual reality on the pitch. They pulled the exact same stunt with Inter.
It makes sense from their perspective, though, because a massive chunk of the betting public still operates with this kind of logic:

Inter at 1.85 against some random Catania team... wow, what a lock—it’s such a cliché example.🙂

Marseille is still a "big name," and I completely agree with you that backing them today would be an incredibly foolish move.

Why isn't there any breakdown for Charlotte-Chicago? I get that betting the house on those 1.10 odds seems like a winning move, but still 🤷

Dana Flores3 said:Shakhtar vs Arsenal (04.16. 17:30) 1X @1.45 (soccer match)

The way this line is set up is 😲😲


you honestly have to wonder who they think is an idiot here...
they give Shakhtar way too much credit and then mess around with a measly 1.45 odds on the actual matchup 😍


Arsenal is facing Wigan, a team that just knocked Manchester City loose a few days ago; meanwhile, Chelsea were sitting at a 1-1 draw until the 92nd minute, and they absolutely demolished Liverpool and Stoke just last week... they are in incredible form...
Shakhtar is trailing Dynamo Kyiv by 3 points with a game in hand... they are significantly stronger than any other club in their domestic league

In my view, this is a clear mistake by the sportsbook 😉

My friend, it looks to me like you messed something up and accidentally bet on Arsenal to score more or equal goals (it says x2) 😁

On another note, looking at Zory, they aren't actually that bad, so I'm debating whether to take 1X on the soccer match or bet that they won't lose by more than two goals (1.65) 🤷

Wigan plays an open style of football, so Arsenal could easily walk away with something like a 5-2 or 5-1 win; because of that, I'm leaning toward the idea that Shakhtar won't blow Zory out of the water (for those who don't know how a loss by two goals or less works... handicap 2:0 1x @1.65)

"Sure thing" Volendam-Emmen 1 1,30
"Almost a lock" Volendam-Emmen f+2 1,90.....Emmen isn't conceding here 1,90

Just to clarify so I don't have to repeat myself:

goldenmarlin5 said:Respect, briskbison66. Full time 0-2. ☕

Ever since someone first brought up the issues surrounding Emmen on this forum—back when they suffered that 6-0 blowout—I’ve realized that betting on them only yields any kind of decent profit on Fridays, which is usually when they play.
Honestly, outside of games against Emmen, I don't think there's any point in playing parlays in that league because anything can happen. 😁
Moving forward, I’d suggest looking at the unders or betting on both teams to score 3 or more, but stay away from Eindhoven; they are actually quite a solid side in that league.

I really wonder when the sportsbooks will finally catch on to Emmen. It was hilarious last Friday when the odds for Zwolle—who are sitting at the top of the table, by the way—were sitting at 1.15. I thought to myself, "Finally, the bookies have figured it out," only for Emmen to fail to score and hit the 2.0 line.
🤣

Emmen will undoubtedly manage to score at least one goal before the season ends, but if I were placing bets right now, I’d put my money on them scoring no more than one. The whole situation is pure chaos, which is frankly ridiculous. Anyone who consistently bets on Emmen to score—given how absurdly low those odds are, hovering between 1.2 and 1.5 week after week—isn't making sense or is just throwing money away.

I’m not sure if anyone else has caught this, but for the last few weeks, goal production in the American Second Division has dropped off significantly. Looking at the current numbers, we've seen only 6 goals across 8 matches by halftime, which is a massive shift from just a couple of months ago when we were seeing huge scoring bursts within single 45-minute windows.
It’s actually a decent situation because major sportsbooks like DraftKings still treat this league as a high-scoring territory, meaning the unders are sitting at some very attractive odds.

There is one match left today at 8 PM involving my "favorite" club, FC Emmen. To be clear, they haven't managed to find the back of the net in roughly 10 matches, and their losing streak is almost equally long. Given the circumstances, I’d recommend playing against them in their matchup against Telstar (even though Telstar is the away side). Here are a few ways to play it:

The conservative approach: Both teams to score and under 3.5—though I don't have the exact decimal odds memorized—or simply taking the under at odds around 2.2.

A slightly more aggressive move: Emmen fails to score at 2.9, or taking the away win for Telstar at 2.3.

The high-risk play: A handicap bet on Telstar, likely sitting somewhere around 4.0.

Here is the breakdown of Emmen's recent results over the past several weeks and months.
Away matches:

Friday 16/12/11 EED Telstar 2 - 1 Emmen View events More info
Friday 13/01/12 EED Oss 1 - 1 Emmen View events More info
Friday 27/01/12 EED Almere City 2 - 0 Emmen View events More info
Tuesday 07/02/12 CLF Meppen 1 - 0 Emmen More info
Monday 27/02/12 EED MVV 6 - 0 Emmen View events More info
Friday 02/03/12 EED Willem II 5 - 0 Emmen View events More info
Friday 16/03/12 EED Dordrecht 3 - 0 Emmen View more
Friday 06/04/12 EED Zwolle 1 - 0 Emmen

Their last goal scored away from home was on January 13th.

Home matches:

Friday 09/12/11 EED Emmen 1 - 2 Zwolle View events More info
Friday 20/01/12 EED Emmen 1 - 0 AGOVV View events More info
Monday 20/02/12 EED Emmen 1 - 2 den Bosch View events More info
Friday 24/02/12 EED Emmen 2 - 1 Cambuur View events More info
Monday 05/03/12 EED Emmen 0 - 2 Veendam View events More info
Friday 09/03/12 EED Emmen 0 - 1 Eindhoven View events More info
Friday 23/03/12 EED Emmen 0 - 4 fortuna Sittard View events More info
Friday 30/03/12 EED Emmen 0 - 1 Helmond Sport

Their last goal and victory came against Cambuur nearly two months ago.

I should point out a significant factor here: this abysmal run for Emmen has persisted almost entirely since that win over Cambuur. Someone on the forum already mentioned them previously, and ever since then, I have been consistently betting against them. It seems quite obvious that they are dealing with severe financial instability, a mass exodus of players, and similar systemic issues.

James is sitting at 26, but if we follow the blueprint Anthony Barrett37 laid out just the other day, I’m expecting him to be pulled from the game pretty soon and left on the bench for the rest of the night 🙂 ....or maybe I'm just being overly pessimistic 🤣

EDIT: there it is, he actually pulled him 🙂 , now the only thing that can save my sanity is a decent run by the Detroit Pistons.

Ethan Jones5 said:This whole situation feels off for several different reasons...
1. Dinamo needs to secure the title while playing away from home.🤷
2. Šibenik is playing dirty at their home stadium, and they are fighting for survival because, let's be honest, only the American Football Federation knows exactly how many clubs will actually face relegation at the end of the season.
3. There is that unspoken thing we all know happens far too often in the American First Football League... I’ll just point out that Lokomotiva Chicago pulled off a win at Šibenik's place just two weeks ago.

Back in 2007 in Čakovec, things weren't exactly above board either.

Richard Myers5 said:This is ridiculous.
I’ve got over 25.5 on my side.
Basically, for me, it's a total loss—just pack it up and go home. I just hope he doesn't personally screw me over too.

And they were at 17 by halftime. 🤣

It’s bullshit like this that makes you lose all motivation to bet. It was the 19th, and he scored right at the start of the third quarter. Then the guy misses a three, then a layup... and that's it. I don't believe he's going back in; honestly, there's no point, especially since word is he's dealing with a minor injury.
If they actually put him in for these last 8 minutes, there might be some hope left.

I need 6

It isn't about whether they can pull it off, it's about whether they actually will... and looking at the scoreboard, it doesn't look like it's happening, since they're sitting on a 17-point lead and there's zero reason to push it. I’m being dead serious here, not just trying to mess with anyone.🙂

I apologize if this isn't quite the right spot for this kind of question, but I'm curious about how sportsbooks are going to handle things if the Real Madrid match gets voided due to that massive blunder where the Villarreal player ended up playing with two yellow cards.
My gut tells me they’ll probably order a replay, but I suspect the betting houses will just treat the results as if that 1-1 draw actually stood.

briskbison66 said:I’ll likely be playing tomorrow:

The odds on the matchup between Red Bull Salzburg and Magna are sitting at 1.35 for a home win.
The home team absolutely needs these points if they want to stay in the hunt for first place, though I can't say for certain what the visitors stand to gain. This matchup is particularly interesting because Magna has historically performed well against Salzburg, but exclusively when playing on the road. Meanwhile, Salzburg has been consistently dominating their home games for years, almost always covering the spread at a -1.9 handicap.

The odds for a Tottenham win over Stoke are sitting at 1.45, which isn't exactly going to break the bank if you're looking for a heavy hitter, but it’s a solid, predictable play for anyone who actually follows the league. It’s a straightforward matchup where the talent gap is pretty obvious, so unless there's some massive unexpected collapse, the result feels almost predetermined.
Let me be clear right out of the gate: if Stoke were playing against anyone else, we’d easily be looking at an over on both teams to score, likely hitting that 3+ mark. But they aren't. They’re lining up with the exact same squad they’ve been rolling out for their recent matches, so I have zero interest in betting that way. Tottenham is desperate for points here because they’ve completely fallen apart over their last four tough Champions League fixtures, whereas Stoke is sitting comfortably in mid-table, just like they do every single season. I’m passing on the handicap entirely because Stoke is a remarkably resilient side; I actually expect them to walk away with a narrow one-goal margin, especially since Stoke has a consistent habit of losing away games by exactly that much.

Manchester City and Chelsea are both looking to hit the over on their total goals, currently sitting at odds of +105.
There isn't much to dissect here, really. I’m simply looking for a high-scoring affair, which makes betting on just "both teams to score" feel like a waste of money for me. Chelsea has found their rhythm again following that coaching change, and City remains the offensive powerhouse they always are. By any logical standard, this matchup should be an absolute shootout.
Head-to-head matchups aren't particularly significant in this specific context, though more often than not, those trends tend to hold true regardless.

I’m calling both teams to score in the upcoming match between the local favorites and Hajduk, and I don't see that happening at anything less than 1.50 odds.
This looks like another typical grind of a match where opportunities will be incredibly scarce. Honestly, looking at how the home side is playing this season, they’re essentially operating without a real striker, and I don't see a coaching change doing anything to fix that fundamental structural flaw. On the other side, it's highly probable that the visitors will just park the bus again, sitting deep in a defensive bunker and praying for a lucky break on a counterattack. Given that the home team lacks any real way to break down a low block like that, I’d go as far as calling this an absolute gift for the away side.

The odds for a home win at the matchup between San Diego and Indianapolis are sitting at 1.60. I’m convinced that the visitors have been absolute wrecking balls for bettors all spring, but San Diego is a different beast entirely when they’re playing on their own turf. They are desperate for points right now because they’re staring down the barrel of relegation. On the flip side, Indianapolis is just plain terrible—they're fundamentally broken in every possible way. Given how bad they are, taking this bet at these odds is a no-brainer.
On the other hand, when it comes to the heavy hitters like the Dodgers or maybe an underdog like the Marlins, I’d suggest steering clear of those bets entirely. The payouts just aren't worth the level of risk involved.

I’m putting my money on the Over 2.5 goals market for the Heerenveen vs. PSV matchup, sitting at odds of 1.55. Given the offensive trajectories of both sides, there is a clear expectation of high scoring, and I find the value to be quite straightforward here.
I simply have to play this one. They were tearing it up this past weekend with a dominant 5-1 victory. Lately, PSV has been consistently hitting the over in almost every single match—usually by a massive margin—with the exception of that one outing against Valencia. The odds for over 6+ goals are sitting at around 7.00 if anyone feels like taking a shot at it, though I should point out we're talking about a cup match here.

I’m looking at the matchup between Villarreal and Real Madrid. You can take the straight win for Real at 1.45, or if you want to chase more value, go with the handicap at 2.15.
I know plenty of people will claim this is just some kind of sucker bet, but you have to play the odds when the numbers look like this. Real Madrid wasn't actually that bad during their matchup with Malaga this past weekend; if anything, I’d argue the officiating was absolute garbage, and we all know refs don't usually screw a team over two weeks in a row, especially not this season. Meanwhile, Villarreal is staring down yet another coaching change—honestly, I can't even keep track of who they brought in to replace the last guy, but the club is clearly in a tailspin right now. The only real downside to this wager is that the exact same pairing already burned me on the Barcelona game earlier this season, though even that was a freak occurrence.
I’m leaning toward thinking we'll see at least 1.7 odds on Ronaldo tomorrow, which honestly looks like a much more profitable play than those two options mentioned above, though I haven't made up my mind just yet.

I’m looking at the matchup between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, and I'm putting my money on both teams finding the back of the net. The odds for both sides to score are sitting at +210, which feels like a solid value play to me.
There isn't much to dissect here beyond the obvious: you have two high-octane teams playing aggressive, offensive football, which makes the current odds look incredibly generous given the matchup dynamics. It’s a smart play. Honestly, betting on Falcao to find the back of the net at similar odds would be just as profitable as taking the over 2.5 goals line.

We’ve managed to pull off six out of eight. Honestly, that whole situation with Real Madrid was a complete joke; if it hadn't been for that one result, we would have actually walked away with seven out of eight.
I actually managed to nail both Falcao and Ronaldo in my slip—I added them alongside Beqiraj on my own parlay, which ended up pulling in a decent little payout.

I should also mention my thanks for providing those data points on Bloomberg earlier; I’ve already made sure to track them down.

My picks for tomorrow will likely be:

RB Leipzig-Wolfsburg 1 @1.35
The home side absolutely needs these points if they want to stay in the hunt for first place. As for the visitors, I’m not entirely convinced, though this matchup has a specific quirk: Wolfsburg tends to perform well against Leipzig, but strictly when playing away. At home, Leipzig has been steamrolling matches for years, almost always covering the handicap (1.9)

Tottenham-Stoke 1 @1.45
Let me be clear: if Stoke were facing anyone else right now, this would be an "over 2.5 goals" scenario rather than a home win, but they are playing a team they historically struggle against in this exact fashion, so I’m passing on the goals. Tottenham is desperate because they’ve dropped four tough games recently in their push for the Champions League spots, while Stoke is sitting comfortably in mid-table as usual. I’d avoid the handicap here because Stoke is a gritty squad; I expect them to lose by exactly one goal, which is pretty much how they regularly lose on the road.

Man City-Chelsea Over 2.5 goals @2.15
There isn't much to dissect here. I am simply expecting a high-scoring affair, so betting just on "both teams to score" doesn't offer enough value for me. Chelsea is finding their rhythm again following the managerial change, and City remains the offensive powerhouse they are. Logically, this should be a massive game.
(Head-to-head stats aren't particularly relevant here, though they usually trend in this direction)

Rijeka-Hajduk Under 2.5 goals @1.50
This is typically a tight, low-opportunity match. Furthermore, Rijeka has been playing practically without a true center forward this season, and a coaching change won't fix that structural issue. On top of that, there's a very real possibility Hajduk will just park the bus again and sit back waiting for a couple of counter-attacking opportunities. Rijeka lacks the firepower to break through a defensive shell like that, so I see this as a fairly safe play.

Zadar-Varaždin 1.60... I know the visitors have been wrecking people's parlays this spring, but Zadar is a different beast at home, especially since they are fighting for survival to avoid relegation. Varaždin is fundamentally a poor side in every sense of the word, so this is simply too good a value at these odds.
On the other hand, I recommend staying far away from the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets matchups given their lower odds. The risk is far too high for such minimal returns.

Heerenveen-PSV Over 2.5 @1.55
I have to take this one. They played just this past weekend and it was a 5-1 blowout. Aside from their match against Valencia, PSV has been involved in high-scoring affairs every single time in the last few months—usually going well over. An "over 6.5" bet would be sitting at about 7.00 if anyone wants to gamble, though I should mention this is a cup match.

Villarreal-Real Madrid 2 @1.45 or Handicap 2, 2.15
I know people will call this a trap, but at these odds, you have to play it. Real Madrid wasn't actually that bad this weekend against Malaga; if anything, I'd say the officiating screwed them over, and we know referees rarely make the same mistake twice in a row, especially this season. Villarreal has lost yet another manager—I honestly can't remember who the last guy was—but they are clearly in a crisis. The only downside to this bet is that this exact same pairing against Barcelona already burned me this season... but that was just a fluke.
I suspect Ronaldo might be at least 1.7 to score tomorrow, which is probably a better value than the two options above, but I'll wait and see.

Atletico Madrid-Athletic Bilbao Over 2.5 goals @2.10
Not much to say. You have two attacking sides that play aggressive football, and the odds are excellent given those facts. It's also worth considering a bet on Falcao to score at similar odds to the over 2.5.

Dinamo vs Istra

Istra fails to score 1.65

Looking at the stats, Dinamo has only conceded two goals at Maksimir this season against MLS sides like Lokomotiva and Šibenik. When you consider that Istra is coming in with a guaranteed, compact defensive setup and absolutely zero intention of playing an attacking game, betting on them to stay off the scoresheet is a far more lucrative play than simply backing a Dinamo win or even messing with the handicap.