NBA Betting: Vol. 2

mellowhawk5 said:I just put some action on Washington and realized LeBron isn't even playing. 🙂

LeBron’s out.

And I’m the idiot who doubled down on Miami. Before that, Steve Nash absolutely gutted my parlay too.

Miami is going to pull this off... I honestly don't see what all the panic is about.

stormyseal9 said:Fine, I'm glad you finally decided to follow my leads😍, you're lucky you started tracking me these last few days because before this, I went about 15 days without a single win.🤷

Let’s take advantage today of the mental fog affecting the bookies; with the playoffs approaching, they've become reckless with their margins.🤣

Morant Over 17.5 at 1.85
-I had to take this gift; the reason for such a thin margin tonight is likely just a bad matchup, but after a recent dry spell, this was bound to happen. I'm banking on a different outcome today once you look at how many key players are out for the Blazers and Morant's current form as he slowly emerges as the team leader. Portland consistently puts up over 100 points, so Morant should easily contribute a massive chunk to that total.
Nowitzki Over 22.5 at 1.85
-The same logic applies to Dirk; he clearly rested last night and played just enough to be ready for the Bulls today. They are fighting for that 6th seed, and if you look at recent scoring outputs (Houston 35, Utah 40, LAL 24, Por 24, GSW 27), the trend is clear.
Houston (-12.5) vs GSW 2 at 1.85
-After a six-game losing streak, Houston is now entirely dependent on other teams to stay in the playoff hunt. GSW has also been hit hard by injuries to Lee, Curry, and several others, leading to seven straight losses, though they are somehow staying afloat thanks to Klay. Given that, I'm betting they won't lose by more than 12.
Jennings Over 18.5 at 1.85
-Consider the bookmakers' logic: his last margin was 19.5, and he dropped 27 against a much tougher Indiana team, yet instead of raising the line, they lowered it. Using actual logic, his last five games were (27, 25, 16, 20, 22). Looking at head-to-head matchups, he’s put up 34 and 17, especially since the Nets are decimated by injuries and the Bucks regularly score north of 100.
Phoenix (210.5) vs Denver Under at 1.85
-The Suns are fighting for a playoff spot while Denver is practically a lock. These two teams used to be known for shootouts with zero defense, but things have shifted; I'm not saying they play elite defense now, but the scoring has dropped significantly. Look at their last three meetings—all unders (204, 201, 195)—and in Denver's last ten games, only one exceeded this margin. That's plenty of evidence for the under.

A slightly larger stake than usual, standard procedure.

I hope my projections hold up; the true test will be felt in the wallet.😉

I followed those ones you called "sure things," and Morant really was a gift, but obviously, I chose Nowitzki over Jennings, considering Nowitzki was hovering right around 17 points with 10 minutes left, while Jennings finished in the third quarter.🙄

Finally came to their senses with Griffin.

Set at 18.5 in the spread 🤣

No clue why they set Charlotte at 95.5, though.
Look, I get that Sacramento’s defense is non-existent, but this is a joke. They could’ve easily gone up to 120.5. There’s zero chance they hit 95.5, even if they played three overtimes.

Taking Griffin under 19.5 (DraftKings) and parlaying it with Charlotte under 95.5.

Expecting an easy win.☕

Dana Baker2 said:The Wizards are absolutely going to crush this! I can feel it in my bones!😁
And that’s exactly how they're going to prove everyone wrong! Miami is going to show the world that they aren't just some washed-up squad without a heavy-hitting three-point shooter—even if they're playing with only one of them on the floor. They've got that grit! It's all about the hustle, right?
I’ve got a gut feeling they aren't going to hit that 85 mark... just my two cents!

Thanks, Dana Baker2! 😉

I caught about three quarters of the game! Honestly, Washington looked really sharp on the field. I saw Miami end up pulling ahead by just two points at the finish, but hey, that game is already in the books! 🙂

Ugh, yet another couple of "gifts" from the bookies that I just had to grab, and let me be crystal clear here—when I say gift, I don't mean these are absolute locks that'll definitely hit, I mean the lines are set way lower than they freaking should be!🤷

Johnson over 17.5 at 1.85
-Seriously, after that absolute masterclass against Boston, I’m expecting him to eat up massive minutes again tonight since this game is huge for them to secure home-court advantage, plus the guy dropped 28 points just two months ago, so why wouldn't he?
Charlotte (195.5) vs Sacramento under 1.85
-I actually laughed out loud when I saw this line this morning—like, what kind of fever dream did they have to get a number this high?🤷 The home team can barely crack 80 points because their roster is basically an infirmary right now, and let's face it, Sacramento isn't exactly some powerhouse, especially when they're playing on the road.
NOH over 85.5 at 1.85
-In my book, this margin is way too low considering how solid NOH has been lately, winning 7 of their last 10 since Gordon came back, and in their last five matchups, they cleared 85 points almost every single time except once.
Bryant over 25.5 at 1.85
-He's finally back on the court after missing seven games with that shin injury, and man, they got absolutely dismantled by the Spurs—LAL lost 121-97, and even with him putting up 18 points on 7-of-12 shooting in 30 minutes, it wasn't enough. Now, LAL is fighting the Clippers for that 3rd seed, so this game is vital if they want to avoid getting swept by OKC.🤷(He's had 23 points and 24 points in his last two outings, shooting 7/25 and 7/24 respectively), so I’m expecting him to catch fire again today, hopefully with slightly better shooting.
Denver (-9.5) vs Orlando at 2 1.85
-Both teams were in high-scoring affairs last night, and since Denver already locked up a playoff spot with that win, they’re gonna be playing much more relaxed, whereas Orlando, even without Howard and Hede, is holding their own because guys like Nelson, Anderson, Richardson, and especially Davis have really started stepping up, so I’m looking at a super close game here.

Wager☕, SS

Smith over 18.5 at 1.85
-I noticed they bumped up his line after he sat out against Boston, but honestly, I still see him going over because he consistently puts up big numbers against heavy hitters (he dropped 19 and 20 against Boston, 34 against Philly, 23 against NYK, 19 against Chicago, 23 against Miami, 30 against OKC...).
Anthony over 23.5 at 1.85
-He rested last time, but I think he’s gonna play with some real purpose today, and I’m taking this because the line at SS is sitting at 26.5, and I highly doubt he's gonna sit out regardless of having clinched the playoffs (remember, he dropped 36 points in their last matchup about 20 days ago).
Westbrook over 22.5 at 1.85
-I'm grabbing him too, even though he’s been a bit underwhelming the last three games (18, 15, 9), but that last performance against LAL was perfection—36 points—so he could easily deliver another monster game tonight.
Henderson over 15.5 at 1.85
-Like I mentioned recently, half their roster is missing, specifically starters like Maggette and DJ Augustin who are usually the ones hogging all the shots, so I don't see anyone else besides him and Mullens capable of carrying the load; I’m eyeing him for around 20 points on 20 shots.
DeRozan over 16.5 at 1.85
-He totally choked against Miami last time with only 12 points, but over the previous three games, he’s been averaging 22.3, including a 23-point performance in a 103-93 win over Detroit, and he's got a nice advantage with all those starters out (Kleiza, Calderon, Bayless, Bargnani)—that's plenty for me to take the over, even if he burned me last time; he had three days of rest, so I expect a big one.
Parker under 18.5 at 1.85
-I'm playing this because the coach has been riding the veterans hard to save them for the playoffs lately, especially the old-school guys like Manu, Duncan, and Parker, so I don't believe he'll see more than about 20 minutes on the floor, making the under a total no-brainer.
Anderson over 14.5 at 1.85
-He dropped 21 points with 5 triples yesterday against Utah, so facing a Denver team that doesn't play much defense, he should easily clear this line, especially since he's clearly found his rhythm again.

6/7 System, Favorite

Good luck to everyone following along!😉

Posts that aren't about the NBA have been moved to their proper threads. Please try to stay on topic.

I’ve been away from you all for a few days, though I did make sure to keep a close eye on the scores via the news tickers😂 I was essentially stuck dealing with some broken appliances at home and didn't have much free time, so I ended up placing bets based mostly on memory and gut feeling.
Friday was a bit of a rough one (CHA under 84, OKC under 213, DAL under 107, LAL under 98), then there was one parlay winner on Thursday, and two more last night.
Because of that, I won't be offering any deep analysis today; I'm honestly too exhausted to go digging through the internet.

Looking back now, I see I picked two parlays today, and I noticed that stormyseal9's reasoning aligns perfectly with my own logic. However, his analysis was posted several hours ago, yet I just placed my bets and the odds haven't budged. Is this a trap?
CHA under 95—that either feels like the gift of a lifetime or a total setup.
NOLA over 85. Honestly, I can't quite wrap my head around it.🤷

One thing for debate:
Minnesota vs. Golden State over 206 should probably clear without much trouble. It seems like a low-stakes matchup between teams that enjoy playing fast. To me, the spread on Golden State also looks massive. Does that line actually move back?

mellowhawk5 said:Thanks @Dana Baker2/">@@Dana Baker2 😉

Caught about three-quarters of it—Washington played well enough, even if Miami managed to stay within -2 by the end. Still, it was 🙂

Ha-ha, where were you watching this?! 🤣 I wasn't even watching the game—I just called it because the Heat's rotation outside of their "Big Three" is absolute garbage. Glad it worked out for you though! 👍 If Crawford had actually hit anything (he went 2/14) 🤣, it would've been over way sooner.

graniteotter6 said:one thing for the discussion:
Minnesota vs GSW over 206 should be a lock. It's a meaningless game with teams that just want to run. Also, the X2 on GSW looks massive to me. Is Love coming back?

I was checking one of those US sites that usually nails these things, and they're projecting a -10.5 handicap for the Wolves. So now I'm not so sure... 🤷 Obviously Love is playing, but the Warriors are likely still without Robinson, and their rotation is already thin as hell. I'd be careful with that one.

EDIT: Wright is also questionable, so GSW is basically in total chaos if that's the case.
As for Griffin and Paul, they're listed as "probable"—same as Gordon. Better wait on that.

stormyseal9 said:Johnson over 17.5 points, 1.85 odds
-Following that standout performance against the Celtics, I fully expect him to see heavy minutes again tonight. This is a massive game for them to secure that home-court advantage, and considering he dropped 28 points just two months ago, the momentum is definitely there.

He absolutely gutted me. Three minutes left on the clock, and suddenly he’s sitting there with 16 points. Thank God he finally remembered he actually has a jump shot.☕

Now, if the Bobcats don't decide to start finding the bottom of the net, we'll cruise right past 150 points easy.☕

Charles Hill2 said:He absolutely shredded me, man, like three minutes left on the clock, and he’s sitting there with 16 points? Thank god he finally remembered how to actually shoot the ball. ☕

If the Bobcats don't decide to stop playing defense and just start sinking everything, we're cruising to an easy 150. ☕

Look, he wasn't shooting because the coach was riding him hard to sit out those last 6 minutes—usually, the guy plays the whole first quarter, sits for 5 or 6, finishes the third, then gets another breather, and if he starts hot from the jump, you don't even have to worry about it🤷. Anthony had an easy night too, but damn, Smith really blew it😢. Honestly, I'm just glad I have my parlay working since the system is solid☕, but man, Westbrook has been absolute trash lately and here I am betting on him again like a total idiot🙂.

Kobe’s sitting at just 5 points by halftime, so I think we’re looking at an under on this one.
By the way, did you see they kicked Svetmir out? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iKxu...ature=youtu.be

Artest is a total joke!😠
If they’d just hand him a 10-game suspension now—maybe then we wouldn't have to deal with him in the first round of the playoffs...

EDIT: Bosh, Wade, and Chalmers are all out. On top of that, Lowry is done for the rest of the season.
Might actually pay off to take LeBron over someone else—and maybe Scolari too.🤷

Dana Baker2 said:Artest is such a loose cannon!😠
Man, they really ought to hand him a ten-game suspension right now just to keep him out of the first round of the playoffs...

EDIT: Looks like Bosh and Wade are out, and I don't see Chalmers starting either. On top of that, Lowry is done for the season.
It might actually pay off to take LeBron over, and maybe Pau Gasol over too.🤷

So, I was catching the Warriors vs. Miami game on some random livestream last night.
But anyway, what do you think—Houston over 92.5 or the whole game over 190.5?

mellowhawk5 said:So I was catching the Rockets game on some random livestream last night.
But seriously—what’s the move? Rockets over 92.5 or just take the whole game over 190.5?

I'm riding with the Bobcatse, whatever happens.
As for the Heat, I'm stuck—honestly, I'd have said under before. This version of Miami isn't scoring much, and Houston is a mess after dropping 6 of their last 7. They aren't even looking at the playoffs anymore. Meanwhile, Miami can't afford another home loss back-to-back...

I wonder if Wade and Bosh are definitely out?? 98.5 on ESPN feels a bit high to me, I guess. 🤷

Did you guys catch that elbow from Artest on Harden? 😲
What a complete psycho—that's just straight-up unhinged behavior. 🤮

Dana Baker2 said:I'm just gonna grab the Bobcats and see where the chips fall.
As for the Heat, I don't know, I’d have leaned under before. This version of Miami isn't scoring much, and Houston is struggling hard after dropping 6 of their last 7. They're basically out of the playoff hunt at this point. Plus, Miami really can't afford to drop two straight at home...

Then we keep an eye on the same matchup. 😉I won't bet the exact same way, but I'll watch how things unfold and maybe jump in live. I've got a gut feeling the Bobcats are going to explode today, win it, and push us toward the over! 🙂

swiftcrane823 said:Are Wade and Bosh definitely out?? 98.5 for Miami feels way too high to me 🤷

Yeah. Houston's defense is a disaster—though I'm also leaning towards this game going under.

EDIT: Ended up taking the Miami under after all, even though I have a feeling it’s gonna be a shootout.😁

Kobe on 18, let's just head into overtime and knock out that over

edit: and there we go, straight into OT 😁