Benjamin Taylor6 said:Solid piece. Putin is looking at three distinct paths here:
If you ask me, that third option is the most likely outcome.
The third path involves just wrapping this whole thing up and trying to pivot toward rebuilding strength for future conflicts. They’d pull back—let's call it a strategic "regrouping," obviously—as some massive "gesture of goodwill." They’d retreat to more defensible lines, offer a ceasefire, and then point the finger at absolutely everyone else. They’d claim the West turned its back on Russia. Suddenly, Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu is deemed unfit for duty and vanishes mysteriously, while General Valery Gerasimov faces trial for treason and sheer incompetence. Meanwhile, Putin gets patted on the back by certain world leaders for driving down global fuel and food prices. The real gamble for him in this scenario? The truth might actually sink in—that they lost the current fight and effectively mortgaged their future. If that happens, his presidency becomes incredibly vulnerable.
Only problem is, you have to ask the Ukrainians too.
And they aren't budging. No ceasefire without full sovereignty within internationally recognized borders (Crimea included).
So, the second the Russian army pulls out of Ukraine, Ukraine joins NATO, and suddenly the Russian military doesn't get that chance to "regroup" and start fighting again the very next day. Unless, of course, they feel like picking a fight with NATO.