Posts by William Price66

The Warriors managed to claw back from a 17-point deficit... man, my Heat 🙂

I'm still in the game. I knew that absolute amateur Love wouldn't be able to clear the margin today. Kobe Bryant is sitting at 17 after the first quarter—he’s playing incredibly well.

I think I'll pass on any heavy bets today. There are just too many favorites on the board, which leaves way too much room for things to go sideways. Good luck to everyone else out there.

I disagree with the idea that you can't bet on player over/unders. Even with all the fluctuations, players tend to get their minutes regardless of whether the season is shortened or not, so there’s definitely value to be found there. Personally, I think it’s pretty foolish to just hammer an over for someone like Mel because he dropped 13 points last game and you assume he’s about to explode—that's just bad logic. You have to trust your gut, but also make sure you check at least the last two games to see how the team is actually rotating him and what his current rhythm looks like. Plus, when picking a player's over/under, you really need to consider who they'll be matched up against defensively.

Love looks desperate tonight; I could smell it coming, given his field goal shooting is 3-16. I’m sticking with the Hawks through the end—fingers crossed they don't let me down, especially those of you holding the Chicago advantage. Melo also went under 🙄
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wanderingpanther28 said:Where are you guys tracking live player stats? It looks like Love already has 8 points after just the first quarter... that’s looking pretty good for the over... assuming he keeps this pace up, of course.

nba.com

I think it'll be a struggle for Love to hit the over. He's struggling in the paint—just one layup so far, and he's 2 for 4 from the line. If he hadn't knocked down those two quick threes at the end of the first, he'd only have 4 points right now.

I have the same feeling that this might be a fluke, but you can't ignore a 14-point lead—that's just how the NBA works. Good luck to everyone, regardless.

It looks like Granger is about 90% out for tonight due to some food poisoning.

My only concern is that he’ll end up seeing heavy minutes; the spread feels inflated, and he just isn't on that level where he can drop 25 points six or seven games in a row like Kobe could. He had his peak, but he's definitely cooled off. Yesterday was a disaster given how Howard played, and even Kobe ended up stuck right at 26, so I suppose we all feel a little better when it's just one bad outing. I agree regarding the Hawks—they shouldn't push it too hard against the Nets, who seem like the more talented and motivated squad right now. My only worry is there are just too many favorites on the board today; someone is bound to slip up.

I honestly can't believe how wide that spread is. This game could easily swing toward 30+ points or get stuck at 10; I'd say it's a total coin flip. I decided to play it safer by taking Love under 24.5 and the Hawks at a moderate stake. Good luck to everyone.

What about Mel and the Hawks? Could that actually work out?

It feels like he doesn't have much support from his teammates. As soon as he gets the ball, those Sacramento guys just shut him down, forcing him to kick it out to someone on the perimeter for a shot. I honestly thought he might take over a quarter and blow past the limit, but maybe I was being too optimistic.

Well, it’s certainly not a disaster. The spread isn't even that extreme, and there are still three quarters left to play. I'm sure they'll tighten things up now..

Yesterday, Anthony Carmelo was just stuck at 15 points; he didn't really step up as the primary playmaker, instead opting to feed Stoudemire and the guys in the paint most of the time. For today, I placed a bet on Howard to go over 21.5—not sure why that line is so low when we've seen Dwight clear 30 lately whenever he's actually locked in. I also took Bryant over 26.5. Having watched a few Lakers games this season, it's clear Kobe touches the ball on almost every possession and fights for every single shot; it's really just a matter of whether his jumper is falling, which usually lands him in the over. I realize even he has off nights, but let's face it, nothing in sports betting is ever a sure thing, including this one. My final play is Portland at home against Cleveland, though there isn't much more to say about that one. It's just a moderate wager.

Dallas 1
Carmelo Anthony over 28.5
Oklahoma City Thunder +2

middle/low volume

William Price66 said:Pau Gasol (DraftKings) vs Boozer -1
Chicago-Atlanta (97.5) - Under
Lakers-Rockets 1
US odds: 3.84
Lower/medium stake

Past 😁

Pau Gasol (dk) - Carlos Boozer -1
Chicago/Atlanta (97,5) - Chicago - under
Lakers vs Rockets 1
US odds: 3.84
Low/medium stake

Just watching tonight for pure recreation...

Man, that 186 was a grind. I think I sweated through three different shirts trying to get through it, but thank goodness it's finally over. 😍

I actually took that over because I figured Miami would stay ahead by double digits most of the game, while Charlotte would just scrape together enough points to hit their 90. 😁 It’s a bit like betting the under in tennis and watching an underdog pull off a massive upset against the favorite, yet somehow you still walk away with the win.