Posts by gentlestag15

Ethan Clark502 said:It’s honestly fascinating how this army of conspiracy theorists thinks everything happening globally—literally anything—is somehow the fault of Americans. I guess if a cow happens to drop dead, it’s suddenly an American plot. Even now, the leader has already pivoted to his usual rhetoric, claiming the Americans are out to get him and knock him from power.

I mean, there is a tiny bit of truth to that. Instead of demanding actual evidence of involvement to show the rest of the world, or recalling their ambassador and threatening sanctions if these claims aren't retracted, the US just sits there doing nothing. It basically lets a bunch of Turks believe that the Americans tried to topple their beloved Erdo without any consequences. And, predictably, the pro-Russians jump on these statements immediately, much like some of our own forum users do.

Jacob Kern2 said:And what happens if the challenger secures the win? Erdogan has already begun employing the narrative that Americans are actively conspiring to orchestrate his downfall.

I’m actually worried that if the other guy wins, Erdo won't just let it happen.
He might refuse to recognize the election results altogether or declare martial law, claiming the US rigged the vote, and then go ahead and arrest Kilicoglu as an American agent.
I just can't see Erdo peacefully stepping down if the margin is only 1%.

Edward Cooper2 said:A coup. It’s pure Germanism, and you used "involved" instead of "implicated." Also, at the start, you should have said "wouldn't" instead of "wouldn't be"...

Look, I finished my schooling out in the decaying West; back in the States, I was just drifting along.
I'm never going to write with the flair of a native speaker, especially since I barely even spoke American until I was twenty.
Get what I'm saying?

Edward Cooper2 said:A total coup. Purely German tactics...

I actually caught onto that and fixed it before you even pointed it out
thanks 👍

steelfox98 said:Except the Americans tried to take him out seven years ago. Back when Biden was Vice President.
Maybe some naive souls actually believe Washington just gave up on toppling disobedient leaders—as if they don't just bomb countries whenever they dislike the guy in charge.
Erdogan isn't a saint, but it's up to the Turkish people to decide what serves their interests, not the interests of the USA.

If the US had actually decided to get rid of him, they would have done it. They wouldn't have staged that whole headless circus of a coup attempt. There's zero evidence the US was even involved, aside from all the barking coming from Erdogan himself.

The whole coup looks more like Erdogan pulling the strings himself just to clear out the dissenters and silence the media.
Honestly, nobody benefited from it more than he did.

3 news agencies, 16 TV stations, 23 radio stations, 45 newspapers, 15 magazines and 29 publishers were ordered to shut down

Larry Sanchez7 said:Gonna be an interesting ride, though I’m betting they just clinch it in the runoff...
I don't know much about politics over in Turkey, but I've been seeing on CNN that Barack Obama is an ally.

if that's the case, then Erdoğan cruises through the second round without breaking a sweat.

crimsonwolf26 said:I’d say anyone on the right—ranging from moderate conservatives to hardliners—who leans into secularism, nationalism, traditional values, or strict anti-immigration stances is likely going to end up closer to Erdogan.

Here is a link to his party's info:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancestral_Alliance

I honestly thought the right-wing crowd and the Kemalists were backing Kilić
while the conservatives and Islamists were riding with Erdogan

Well, looks like Erdo finally dipped below 50%.
https://i.postimg.cc/W39QCSVJ/Fw-HRm9mac-AA9-CI6.jpg

crimsonwolf26 said:If you actually believe these numbers, Erdogan could be looking at about a 4% lead by the time they wrap this up, which would give him a pretty solid cushion heading into the runoff.
There's still plenty of urban areas left to count, though, so there’s a chance that lead might shrink a bit.

What about that third-party guy pulling 5-6%? Where do those votes end up in a runoff?
I mean, who is his base actually leaning toward?

Capitalism in China is way more cutthroat than what we deal with here in the States
What are you even talking about?
And regarding those photos, we could definitely have some fun with it this way
Chinese
uncommon Japanese names
vs American

Arthur Miller7 said:Noah Diaz doesn't buy into this system, yet he sure loves milking all its perks. Since I'm already going off on a tangent about sanctions:

They're selling government debt to Russia.

The real kicker is how Russia wants to trade in rubles with foreign countries and corporations—it's like they're trying to spin it into a new global trade currency.
Back in 2014, before the annexation of Crimea, you could grab a dollar for just 37 rubles.
Now? You're looking at 80 rubles, and that number is probably headed even higher.
Honestly, anyone holding onto rubles right now is just asking to lose money. It's a fool's errand.

George Robinson43 said:Purchasing Power Parity is completely irrelevant when you're trying to evaluate and compare national economies. It relies on adjusted GDP based on consumer baskets containing thousands of items, most of which aren't even identical from one country to the next. Because of this, the data accuracy is always highly questionable.
That is precisely why all serious economic analyses rely exclusively on nominal GDP.

It’s pretty obvious to us, but the pro-Russia crowd won't hear a word about nominal GDP. They stick exclusively to PPP just so they can make their backwater towns look a hell of a lot better than they actually are. 😁

Noah Diaz said:Is GDP actually a meaningful metric when you're in the middle of a war?😁

Which war are we even talking about?
If you had said that over in Russia, you’d be sitting in a prison cell right now—you know, thinking about that whole military operation and that "special" situation everyone talks about. 😁

By the end of March, federal revenue hit $45 billion while spending climbed to $96.7 billion. That puts the budget deficit sitting at over $51 billion through the first quarter.

https://tass.com/economy/1598147

So, for the first three months, they pulled in $3.49 trillion in revenue but blew through $7.5 trillion in spending. 👍

Noah Diaz said:On top of that—and this is clearly by design—they disrupt energy supplies and goods movement while simultaneously ramping up the frantic printing of dollars. It’s basically a desperate attempt to patch holes on a sinking ship.

It feels like the idiots in power are just throwing gasoline on a fire. It’s high time we stop them or vote them out. Do whatever you want, but I've seen enough.

We are watching a catastrophe unfold in slow motion, and it all traces back to Year zero (2020).

I don't really get why everyone is obsessed with the money printing thing. There's probably 100 or even 1,000 times more dollars circulating globally through various accounts than what was actually printed; no matter how much they pump out, it's peanuts compared to what's already out there.
The total value of stocks on the US stock market alone is sitting at something like $50 trillion.

Anthony Hill5 said:I would have argued previously that India would be forced to grovel to the West because their military is so heavily reliant on Russian hardware, but current trends suggest Russia is rapidly becoming nothing more than a puppet for China. This leads me to wonder: how exactly does Russia plan to sell weaponry to a Chinese adversary if they are being held firmly in Beijing's grip? Furthermore, one must consider whether the Russian defense industry—stripped of essential Western components—is even capable of anything more significant than supplying skirmishes between tribal factions in Africa.

Back in 2010, about 80% of India's arms imports came from Russia.
By 2020, that number had already dropped to 35%, and I'm pretty sure it's even lower now.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...rt-by-country/

After we saw a $25 billion hole in the federal budget back in January,
it jumped up to $34 billion in February. If things keep moving at this rate, we’re looking at a massive $200 billion deficit by the end of the year.
https://www.reuters.com/article/russ...-idINL8N35E3XD
The numbers are just getting worse by the day.😁

quietviper0 said:If you just grab the highest possible figure without stopping to wonder why it was so high in the first place—or if that number even makes sense to use as a baseline—and then you layer on your own little mathematical fantasies where you assume every single barrel is sold at the absolute lowest price point regardless of reality, well, presto! Suddenly Russia is earning three times less, and all those readers who aren't really looking closely at the details are absolutely thrilled by this supposed news of Russia's collapse...

But while we're wandering outside that fantasy world, the actual situation can be somewhat observed right here: https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/
On the first graph, "Daily flows by fuel type," you can actually hover your mouse over different parts of the chart to see the specific value of a particular product on any given day...

I'd suggest taking a look at what the daily figures under "Crude oil" looked like during the first week of 2022 when Brent Crude was hovering between $80-$85, and then compare that to January or February of this year when Brent Crude was also sitting right around that same $80-$85 range...

It is truly fascinating to watch how the most vocal critics will eagerly swallow and repeat propaganda, even when it's just a reflection of their own biases...

Back in late February last year, the European Union was pulling $550 million worth of energy products daily from Russia. This year, that's dropped below $100 million and is still trending down, while most other countries have stayed roughly at the same level.
So far, there's been a monthly deficit of $13.5 billion from the European Union alone; energy revenues have essentially been cut in half.
At the end of the day, tonnage doesn't matter—cash flow does.

goldenpuma84 said:Major price hikes are coming on March 1st, 2023.

Take a look at your utility bills from Duke Energy...

What happens when the Government's relief measures expire on March 31st, 2023?

Just because the European Union managed to scrape by through one mild winter doesn't mean they've fixed the systemic issue of energy demand versus supply.

Honestly, the European Union hasn't even begun to address the core problem...

I couldn't care less about the Russian deficit. I'm just worried about what life is going to look like for the average American soon...

Gas prices are actually lower now than they were before the invasion.
Prices skyrocketed last winter, not after the invasion started.
Why does everyone keep forgetting that and sweeping it under the rug?

Carl Lee27 said:That 2.2% drop for last year? Honestly, that’s just an estimate. It feels like they’re dragging their feet on releasing the actual data because, if you look at all the indicators, things started taking a massive dive back in December. I was expecting the numbers to drop just yesterday! But look, it's pretty obvious what's happening: the private sector is shrinking fast, while government spending is spiking—which is basically why the overall GDP contraction looks so minimal. If anyone actually thinks this can keep going indefinitely, well, good luck to them, I guess.

I can already see new taxes on the horizon. Once the war in Ukraine escalates any further, those reserves are going to dry up incredibly fast.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...-report-a80172

Honestly, you really ought to subtract all those spiked military expenditures—the Wagner Group, the Chechens, all that—
which are being funded straight out of state reserves
If we don't account for that explosion in military spending, a 6-7% GDP crash is basically a given.

electricsurfer47 said:What do you guys think would happen if Russia ditched the ruble entirely and started using gold as their main currency? Just thinking hypothetically here... would gold end up being more stable than the ruble? Probably, right?

People have been talking about gold becoming the go-to currency for ages, which is probably why so many countries are hoarding it in their reserves.

If you went to a convenience store to grab some gum, how much gold would you actually hand over for it?
Like, one milligram?
That’s basically just a speck of dust that a light breeze could blow away.😁

Back in January 2022, the Russian government was pulling in about $2,089 billion while spending roughly $1,964 billion
leaving them with a surplus of $125 billion.
Fast forward to January 2023, and things look pretty different: revenues hit $1,356 billion against a massive $3,117 billion in spending.
That’s a deficit of $1,760 billion—basically, their hole is deeper than their entire income.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/...t-budget-value

Just waiting on the February numbers now.🍿

Nathan Thomas12 said:Besides, it’s a damn shame all that Western hysteria over helping Ukraine happened when it did—if they'd just stayed out of it, this whole war would've been wrapped up ages ago. You with me on that?

And how exactly would it be "over"?
Without Western aid, the fighting would just keep dragging on. Kyiv wouldn't have fallen even without the help.
Sure, maybe Krematorsk and Slavyansk would have gone, and Kherson might've ended up in Russian hands,
but the war itself? It would still be going on for a long time.