Posts by Nicholas Chase34

Rose vs Westbrook @ 1.85

If Deng ends up sitting this one out, combined with how much Utah struggles defending the Point Guard position, I’m feeling like this could go either way and stay pretty close, whereas we're basically expecting a total blowout in the OKC-CHA matchup.

G. Monroe over 16.5 @ 1.85

Monroe is looking really sharp lately, and he consistently puts up big numbers against weaker teams—you know, those squads hovering under a .500 winning percentage—and he just dropped 30 points on Toronto in their last outing. Since Toronto generally struggles to defend the post, taking the over feels like a slam dunk to me.

@ 3.42 SS

Nicholas Chase34 said:Just one triple for today:

G. Wallace
tip: I’m feeling pretty good about taking the under on 13.5 points at 1.85 odds. It feels like one of those situations where you just expect things to stay quiet, almost like a slow Sunday afternoon when nothing much is happening, so I'll stick with that.
Deron Williams
tip: I’m feeling pretty good about taking the over on 23.5 points at 1.85; it just feels like one of those situations where the momentum is totally on our side and everything is lining up perfectly.
C. Anthony
tip: I’m feeling pretty good about taking over 21.5 points at 1.85; it feels like one of those situations where the math just lines up perfectly, kind of like when you find a great deal on a vintage jacket that fits exactly right. It’s got that steady, reliable vibe to it, so I'm definitely leaning into this one.
☕

Injury list. 😠

Nicholas Chase34 said:Basically:
Jennings It looks like we’re looking at a spread of over 18.5 here, which honestly feels like a pretty solid line to play with if you think things are going to get moving. The way the PG is locking down New York right now is actually wild to watch, honestly.
L. Williams I'm feeling pretty good about this one, honestly—I'm leaning toward taking the over 14.5. It just feels like the kind of game where everything starts clicking and the scoring just keeps snowballing, much like how a small spark in a backyard bonfire can suddenly turn into a massive blaze if you let it catch. When you look at the momentum building up, it feels like we're headed for a high-scoring affair, so I'm riding with that number. The way the PG handles defense against Utah is honestly something else to watch.
Aldridge I'm feeling like we're looking at an under 21.5 situation here. Garnett
Bryant I’m feeling pretty good about this one—it feels like we're looking at over 28.5. Ridnour
Germany
🤔

Aldridge was absolutely cooking out there today with those 22 points.😢Hey, look on the bright side—it’s like when you're playing a hand and everything just swings back in your favor; you basically doubled your money!

The quick rundown:
Jennings is looking to clear 18.5 (defending the point guard for New York City)
Serena Williams should go over 14.5 (guarding the point guard for the Utah Jazz)
LaMarcus Aldridge stays under 21.5 (facing Kevin Garnett)
Kobe Bryant hits over 28.5 (against Luke Ridnour)
Germany
🤔

crimsonangler1 said:If he was in the SS, I'd take him right now. Such a shame.

I mean, what are you actually expecting from Deron Williams here—is he really going to pull a repeat performance like he did against the Charlotte Bobcats last time? 🙂

Look, if you think he’s going to drop another 57 points, I honestly have my doubts, but hitting the over on 23.5 seems like a pretty safe bet.
The Charlotte Bobcats actually made things easier for him by basically letting Deron Williams run the show instead of forcing the rest of the squad to get involved in the scoring. Personally, I think he should easily cruise to at least 25 points; even if his jumper isn't falling, both teams are aggressive enough with their fouling that he'll rack up plenty of free throws, making this line feel like a total steal. He’s such a beast in isolation and as a pick-and-roll ball handler, and looking at the Charlotte Bobcats roster, there really isn't anyone who can shut him down. Plus, Deron loves to feast on teams hovering under .500 (averaging 27.1 PPG), mostly because those defenses just aren't disciplined enough to stop him. 🤷

shadowjackal27 said:Man, you basically snatched that second point right out of my mouth. 🤣

By the way, if you don't mind me asking, is there a specific reason why you're leaning so hard on Ben Wallace?

It’s because he’s such a massive home-court hero who really finds his rhythm when the home crowd is buzzing, since his scoring average jumps significantly compared to when he's on the road—we're talking 17.1 PPG at home versus just 9.5 PPG away. Looking back at those 17 away games, Wallace only managed to clear that mark three times total; he hit 14 points against the New Orleans Pelicans twice and dropped 24 on the Golden State Warriors once, but otherwise, he pretty much cruises under the line. On the road, he usually takes about two fewer shots per game and heads to the free-throw line twice less often too. Basically, in games where the Portland Trail Blazers stay under 100 points, Wallace averages about 10.1, and even in losses, he sits around a low 10.3. Plus, looking at the last three games against the Boston Celtics, his average is a pretty measly 7.66 points. 🤷

Just one triple play for me today:

Ben Wallace
pick: under 13.5 points @ 1.85
Deron Williams
pick: over 23.5 points @ 1.85
Carmelo Anthony
pick: over 21.5 points @ 1.85

☕

ruggedgull32 said:...this is basically what I'm getting at in the next few lines...
The players were totally dialed in last night, and man, I am absolutely eating my words like a kid who thought he could outrun a lightning bolt because I went all in on the LA Clippers with a 🙂Farmer🙂 vibe... honestly, I've been riding the player over/under wave lately, and I really thought I was playing chess while everyone else was playing checkers last night, but nope, I just tripped over my own feet....

The guys played almost flawlessly, but honestly, the actual quality of the games was pretty rough to watch 🙂

Keith Moore21 said:The LA Clippers 🤦
still have a massive mountain to climb before they can actually be considered a serious contender...

Until they figure out how to tighten up that defense, they aren't going anywhere 🙄

wiredcanyon39 said:Man, those pages of yours have been absolute lifesavers for me lately. 😍
By the way, does anyone have a link they could DM me for? I remember seeing this one forum where some guy was constantly crunching the numbers on average points scored by different teams, which really helped me when I was betting on overs, unders, or even just first-quarter winners.

I'm seriously stoked to hear they’ve been working out for you, 😁

As far as that site goes, is there any chance you're thinking of http://www.teamrankings.com/nba-betting-picks/😕
?
That's my go-to spot for digging into over/under stats, team trends, quarter breakdowns, and pretty much all that other random stuff you need to track. 🤷

Arthur Ross5 said:Hey man, if you don't mind, could you let me know which site you're looking at? Thanks a ton.
I'm pretty much the new kid on the block here, though I've been following the NBA for ages, so I'll definitely try to jump in and lend a hand whenever I can...
Cheers

That first image you posted is from hoopdata.com.

The second one looks like a clip from a box score over at covers.com.

I think I finally found my play of the day:

New Jersey Nets vs. LA Clippers
pick: LA Clippers -7.5 @ 1.85
bet: 8/10

I’m definitely riding with the Clippers on this one because their absolute dominance in the paint is going to be a total game-changer between these two squads. Honestly, the Nets might have stood a fighting chance if they had Brook Lopez in the rotation, but without him, they just look pretty limited out there. Based on how the first matchup went down, we already saw enough of the quality gap in the interior to make a call.


If you look at the tape, the Clippers' massive advantage in the paint was super obvious, especially when it came to scoring right at the rim. The Nets just don't have anyone who can consistently hammer home layups or easy dunks, and that’s exactly why they ended up trailing by 18 points in their last outing—though they did claw some of that back with some perimeter shooting. It’s the same story as when the Heat absolutely dismantled them recently; the Nets could only muster 16 points in the paint compared to the Heat's massive 34.😲 🤷


Even though Chris Paul wasn't in that last game, Chauncey Billups did a pretty decent job holding things down, but now the tables have turned, and I truly believe Paul is going to run circles around them even better than Billups did.
I really feel like this is a huge edge for the Clippers that the oddsmakers aren't fully accounting for (I guess so), so I'm feeling super confident about the visitors winning by at least 10. Any team with guys who can actually attack the rim seems to blow past the Nets by a ton. I should also mention that the Clippers were struggling miserably from the free-throw line in that last game, hitting only 54.3% (19-35), so if they tighten that up, I don't see how the Nets can stop the "Lob City" onslaught. You might even want to take a flyer on the larger spread of 13.5 @ 3.3 ☕

Looking at today's slate, here’s what’s catching my eye:

Pierce under 19.5
Playing a B2B game when you're that young is a total grind on your energy levels, so I don't see him having enough gas in the tank to keep up with an absolute powerhouse like Iggy.

Rose over 23.5
He had a bit of a rough outing against the Pacers last time out, but it feels like his main focus right now is just getting the win, regardless of how his individual stats look. Jennings is going to have a nightmare trying to shadow him, and honestly, the vibe in Milwaukee feels just as electric as playing at home.🤔

Parker over 19.5
I think Parker is really going to find his rhythm against the Knicks, especially since their defense still looks a little soft and disorganized. His veteran experience should give him the edge over Lin, who hasn't quite figured out how to handle elite players yet.

San Antonio vs. New York under 198.5
The line might be set a little high if you ask me; I’m picturing something more along the lines of a 101-94 finish, mainly because the Knicks are pretty much the go-to underdog for anyone looking to bet the under.

Griffin over 21.5
Even though Griffin is hitting the road for this one, the Nets roster just doesn't have anyone capable of actually slowing him down. In the season opener, he snatched up 6 offensive boards and racked up 16 points just from dunks and layups alone (shooting 8-for-12 at the rim). Sam Humphries simply can't stay glued to him, and the Nets seem totally lost when defending the post-up, the pick-and-roll, or transition plays—all areas where Griffin absolutely shines. In my book, the only way he stays under is if he struggles from the free-throw line or if it turns into a total blowout; otherwise, I'm leaning heavily toward the over. ☕

Duel:
Amare Stoudemire vs Pau Gasol, tip: Pau Gasol @ 2.0 SS

What can I even say about this matchup? It’s pretty wild because Amare is surrounded by a massive crowd of shooters—we're talking Melo, Lin, J.R. Smith, Shumpert, and you can't just overlook guys like Chandler and Novak either. Because there's so much offensive traffic, he's going to have a really tough time finding his rhythm for shots; he might get some pick-and-rolls going with one of the playmakers, maybe Davis or Lin, but honestly, the competition for touches in that offense is just too high. His scoring average is likely to stay pretty flat since he'll constantly be fighting for space. When Dallas and the Knicks faced off about twenty days ago, Amare only managed to take 10 shots, which was enough for 11 points. I should mention that Melo wasn't even in that game, and he's definitely going to be out there tonight cranking out 15+ shots easily. On the flip side, Gasol is sliding a little bit in terms of recent form, averaging about 13.7 points over his last three games, though his five-game average sits at 17.4 PPG. This feels like the perfect setup for him to find his groove again because the matchup is just right. Detroit has been known over the last couple of seasons for having a pretty leaky defense in the paint, especially against power forwards. They've improved a tiny bit this year, but barely. Their biggest issue is still defending the pick-and-roll and post-up plays, and when it comes to spot-up shooting, they’re basically bottom-tier in the league (#29). Gasol should be able to exploit that weak post-up defense, especially since he's actually one of the better players in the league when it comes to that specific part of the game. Throw in a few pick-and-rolls and some cuts, and he should have plenty to work with to come out on top in this duel. ☕

Looking at the rest of the board, I'm really feeling: Charlotte vs Orlando, tip: under 188.5, mainly because Orlando tends to trend toward the under whenever they're playing on the second night of a back-to-back (they're 4-10 in those situations).

Edward Gonzalez36 said:Hey everyone! 😉
Detroit vs LA
Since Detroit lets in a ton of shots in the paint—we're talking around 76 per game—I really think LA is going to feast on that and punish them.

My pick: LA x2

Hey man, I think you totally misread that stat about the 76 shots in the paint.

The way I see it, Detroit is actually one of those squads that limits opponents better than anyone else, giving up an average of only about 76.2 shots per game, so it looks like you might have just flipped the meaning of that number around. 🤔

frozengardener98 said:Is there anything safe out there? Maybe just one pick for a bigger bet?

Man, I really can't stand it when people use the word "safe" 🙂—it’s just not a thing in sports betting, unless you're counting some kind of mathematical certainty that doesn't exist in the real world.

It’s much better to say something looks "highly probable," because honestly, that's a lot more realistic for what we do here.

There are plenty of picks being posted in this thread, so it's really just about paying closer attention and actually learning something from all the info being shared. ☕

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:So what I was trying to get at was

If Richardson is still sidelined like he is right now, and then there's Nelson—I read somewhere that he might sit out on Yahoo, though honestly, that might just be bad intel. Maybe I didn't word things quite right earlier when I mentioned we'd see even fewer fantasy points from him (I was specifically talking about Nelson). So, I don't really see where I went wrong here (unless Nelson ends up suiting up), but hey, could you double-check that for me later today? Like, maybe drop a link if you find something confirming he's actually playing.

Nelson is definitely going to play; I can't see any reason why he wouldn't, considering he's been in the lineup for the last three games without any issues, and he hasn't even shown up on the injury report.

http://www.donbest.com/nba/injuries/

Just keep an eye on this site for injury updates because their info is always way ahead of the curve. Yahoo isn't exactly the most reliable source when it comes to the real-time stuff.

shadowjackal27 said:Would you take the spread on Denver? Like, if they open around -6.5 to -8.5? Probably at +105 odds, obviously.

And one more thing... hey, could you throw in another matchup for me to pair this with?😁

Looking at the board, I might lean toward taking the under on Jamison, like under 20.5 points.
The whole situation is interesting because he’s been on fire lately, hitting the over on 20.5 in six of his last seven games.
But man, 20.5 is still a pretty beefy line to work with.🤷

It’s definitely worth a shot, though, especially considering the pace Denver likes to set—the Kings are probably going to have a hard time keeping up once Denver starts pushing the tempo.

And just like always, it might be smart to look at DeRozan under 17.5... he doesn't really have much of a perimeter game, shooting maybe around 35%, and I don't see him getting too many easy looks inside against someone like Dwight.

Maybe even Wall over 18.5.

I wouldn't touch Jamison, though; even if that under looks tempting, I just don't have a ton of faith in Utah's defense at the four spot.

@Joshua Gonzalez33

Nelson and Richardson are good to go, but Q. Richardson will be sidelined, and he's been out for quite a while now.

☕

ruggedgull32 said:..thanks for the tip, Play, I've got Aldridge at -20.5+ so I think I'll just roll with him...
Totally, Rose, since I've got him sitting at -23.5+ so this "your" Denver guy is looking solid...
Lawson is also playing out of his mind lately, hovering around 18 or 17, but since I have him at -16.5+ he might just clear the over too...🤷

👍

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Play, these stats you're pulling up are super interesting, but if my time at the local sportsbook taught me anything, it's that you can basically throw statistics out the window—otherwise, we'd all be millionaires by now! While stats definitely play a part, it's mostly huge in baseball, which is just a niche thing people over here in the States don't bet on nearly as much as they do other sports.
I'm feeling really heavy on Indiana at 13.5 today and taking the under on J. Crawford at 16.5. Good luck to everyone with their parlays today!

For sure, in a way, stats won't save you because there's always that unpredictable human element involved, but I look at them as a way to carve out a little bit of an "edge," which can honestly make or break your day, especially when you're digging into things like offensive rebounds or field goal percentages. At the end of the day, it's always better to have more info than less; sometimes having those numbers in your head lets you make a really sharp call based on gut feeling before you even see the game unfold. 🤷

ruggedgull32 said:I've been glued to the screen watching Steph Curry all day, and since I see he's on your radar too, I'm starting to get a little nervous—honestly, I'm just praying we don't end up with another performance like what happened against the Hornets this past Saturday.🤣

Honestly, you’re probably better off sitting this one out—if he wasn't playing so terribly lately, he’d be a total lock for the under, but just look at his current form. Plus, Ariza is finally getting back into the rotation after being sidelined with that injury, and we all know he’s a beast at shutting down shooters; he basically holds guys to a measly 37% from deep. It reminds me a bit of how Batum operates, especially since he's always hunting those spot-up looks which make up about a third of his shots. When you look at the big picture, the Pelicans have a rock-solid defense when it comes to stopping perimeter shooters, ranking pretty high at number five in the league.
Their biggest weakness is definitely how they handle the pick-and-roll, so I really think this is the perfect setup for Aldridge to finally go off and put up some massive numbers at Madison Square Garden.

Aside from everyone else. DenverIt’s basically like watching a world-class offense go up against the absolute worst defense you could ever imagine—you know, kind of like seeing the best high-powered offense in the NFL run wild against a rookie defensive line that hasn't even figured out their footwork yet. + Things shot up past 34.5!☕

Wait, didn't you maybe mean assists instead? 🤣

Arthur Hill2 said:Bryant is totally locked in, though I see that little trickster Nicholas Chase34 out here trying to mislead the crowd; if Bryant doesn't go over, I'm putting Danilo Gallinari in my avatar ☕.

and Bones,

which avatar should I hunt down for you, the one with Danilo Gallinari rocking the mohawk or the plain version? 🤣 😂
😍

Arthur Hill2 said:S ☕

Sure thing, I just found one and he's practically itching to get put to work. 😁😛