I think I'm going to take a shot at Ray Allen over 14,5 @ 1,85
Last night he was absolutely cooking, playing one of his best games of the season so far, and looking ahead, he’s facing a squad similar to the Sacramento Kings when it comes to how they handle perimeter defense. Arron Afflalo isn't exactly a lockdown defender—especially when it comes to stopping spot-up shooters—which should give Ray Allen a nice little window to work with, especially since he gets about half of his looks from those spot-ups and off-screen plays that Denver struggles to cover. I'm just crossing my fingers that the fatigue doesn't catch up to him too much before tip-off.
A few other interesting picks on my radar: Tim Duncan under 14,5 Boozer over 14,5
4:00 PM, Seattle Sounders FC - Buffalo Bisons, pick: over 2.5 goals @ 1.57, Hattrick
We've got a matchup in the US third division today between Seattle Sounders FC and the Buffalo Bisons. I’m leaning into this one because these two squads are basically the definition of "all gas, no brakes"—they’ve got killer offenses but their defenses are about as solid as a wet paper bag. Take Seattle Sounders FC, for instance; they’re sitting pretty with the second-best home offense in the league, averaging about 2.29 goals per game, but they give up almost exactly the same amount, around 2.07, thanks to some shaky defending. Out of their 14 home games so far, 11 of them have busted through that 2.5 goal mark. Then you look at the Buffalo Bisons, who aren't quite as explosive offensively, but honestly, it's a minor detail. If you're looking for high-scoring games, the Bisons are basically your go-to team in this league, since 19 of their 28 matches have gone over 2.5 goals. They tend to play even more wide open when they're on the road compared to back home, scoring an average of 1.77 while coughing up 2.38 in the process. In 13 away trips, they've only managed a clean sheet once, and they've failed to find the net just twice—it's super clear their whole vibe is just "outscore the other guy." So, you've got two of the worst defensive units in the league facing off alongside some really sharp attacks, and based on how their head-to-head history has been a total fireworks show of goals, I’m expecting the exact same chaos today.
12.26.11. Buffalo Bisons - Seattle Sounders FC 2:3 11.12.11. Seattle Sounders FC - Buffalo Bisons 4:4 08.27.11. Buffalo Bisons - Seattle Sounders FC 3:2 03.29.11. Buffalo Bisons - Seattle Sounders FC 1:2 03.26.11. Seattle Sounders FC - Buffalo Bisons 3:1 02.22.11. Seattle Sounders FC - Buffalo Bisons 2:0 09.25.10. Buffalo Bisons - Seattle Sounders FC 1:2
Nicholas Chase34 said:Looking ahead to the 3:30 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Milwaukee Bucks, I’m leaning toward Monta Ellis staying under 20.5 points, currently sitting at 1.85. It feels like one of those games where the defense might tighten up more than people expect, keeping him just shy of that mark.
We've got a matchup in the American fourth division between Stranraer and Montrose coming up. Stranraer is sitting pretty in 2nd place right now with a record of 14-7-7 and a goal difference of 64:42, so you could say they're in pretty decent shape, especially since they've grabbed two wins and two draws in their last four outings. On the flip side, we have Montrose hanging out near the bottom of the table, currently in second-to-last place with a 7-5-16 record and a goal difference of 42:63. What really caught my eye for this one is just how much action there usually is in this league—goals are basically a staple here. Stranraer boasts the best offense in the league with 64 goals scored, and at home, they’re pumping out an average of 2.43 goals per game. But, even with that powerhouse attack, their defense is a bit of a sieve, giving up nearly two goals a match, averaging about 1.79 at home. Now, looking at Montrose, even though they're struggling in the standings, they still find ways to score, but they leak goals just as fast. Away from home, they average 1.36 goals scored while conceding a whopping 2.43 per game. Honestly, these two teams are basically the "over" kings of the league; their matches are legendary for being high-scoring affairs. Out of 28 rounds played, Montrose has seen over 2.5 goals in 21 of them, while Stranraer is right behind with 20. When Stranraer plays at home, 11 out of 14 games went over 2.5, and 9 of those actually cleared the 3.5 mark. For Montrose, 11 of their 14 away trips hit the over 2.5 line, with 8 of those going over 3.5. If you look at their head-to-head history, it's been a total fireworks show; in their last seven meetings, every single one has gone over 2.5 goals, and only one failed to hit the 3.5 mark. So, when you weigh everything up—the crazy stats and just how these teams play—I really think grabbing this bet is a smart move. 1/7/12 Montrose - Stranraer 1:3 11/12/11 Stranraer - Montrose 4:4 8/27/11 Montrose - Stranraer 0:6 4/16/11 Montrose - Stranraer 3:2 2/12/11 Stranraer - Montrose 2:2 10/9/10 Montrose - Stranraer 3:3 10/2/10 Stranraer - Montrose 1:2
03:30, Golden State - Milwaukee, pick: Monta Ellis under 20.5 points @ 1.85 SS
The Bucks just added some serious firepower to their roster, picking up sharpshooting guard Monta Ellis in a trade from Golden State (tonight's opponent) in a trade... Monta Ellis was actually the leading scorer for Golden State, averaging about 21.9 PPG. With him joining the mix, Milwaukee is going to have two guys who absolutely love to let it fly, which makes for a super explosive backcourt. There’s a good chance Ellis makes his debut for Milwaukee tonight against his old squad, and I'm really looking forward to seeing him put on a total show for the fans. Since Ellis is stepping in, Jennings should see a dip in his shot attempts, which naturally means fewer points per game. This season, Jennings has been averaging 19.1 PPG while taking around 17 shots per game. Honestly, Milwaukee has plenty of offensive weapons right now, especially with guys like Kyle Dunleavy, Chris Gooden, and others getting more active lately... Jennings has been a bit hit-or-miss lately, having one great game followed immediately by a total slump. Facing off against the Bucks tonight, Golden State actually boasts one of the best defenses against point guards, statistically ranking in their top three. Part of the reason is that Golden State is elite at defending the pick-and-roll—especially when it comes to the ball handler, which is where Jennings gets about a third of his shots—and they are great at stopping transition plays, something Jennings relies on heavily because he’s so quick. He’ll be matched up against Nate Robinson, who isn't exactly a lockdown defender, but for a PG like Jennings, I think it'll work out okay since he can use his speed to create space. All things considered, I expect Monta to have a solid outing to honor the club he's been with since 2005, but that leaves Jennings with fewer looks, making it very likely he stays under his total. ☕
01:00, Steve Nash(Phoenix Suns) - Chris Kaman(New Orleans), tip: 2 @ 1,75 SS
Let's kick things off with our first matchup, looking at Steve Nash. As the veteran playmaker for the Phoenix Suns, he’s heading out to Los Angeles to face off against the Clippers, where he'll be going head-to-head with one of the elite floor generals in the league, Chris Paul. Now, Paul is an absolute beast on the defensive end, usually holding his matchups to around a 35.7% shooting clip. While Nash has put up some decent numbers lately, those performances mostly came against teams with pretty shaky defenses; when he runs into squads that actually know how to lock in on defense, he tends to get stifled. If you look back at when he played the Clippers on March 2nd, he was held to just 6 points while shooting 1-4 from the field. At the end of the day, scoring isn't really the main mission for a guy like Nash—his whole vibe is about facilitating and setting others up rather than hunting for his own shot. He rarely goes on high-volume shooting tear, which is why he frequently lands on the under. Plus, his recent history against CP3 hasn't been great; in their last five meetings, he hasn't even come close to hitting the line, posting totals of 12, 10, 8, 3, and 6. Since he's playing on the road against a defender as lockdown as Paul, I'm leaning towards Nash staying under his average here. Our second duel features Chris Kaman, who's been in pretty solid form lately, even if it's a little hit-or-miss since he struggles to string together several stellar games in a row. That said, today's opponent should be the perfect setup for him to really cook. He had a fantastic outing last night against the Lakers—who, by the way, boast one of the toughest interior defenses in the league—dropping 21 points. Since the Hornets are feeling pretty thin at the center position right now, Kaman has become their go-to offensive weapon down low, especially with Kevin Landry, Emeka Okafor, and Smith all sidelined with injuries. He hasn't faced Washington yet this season, but back when he was rocking a Clippers jersey, he absolutely tore it up against them. In his last three matchups against Washington as a Clipper, he dropped 19, 14, and 28 points while shooting a scorching 67.5%. Given that Washington sits right at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to protecting the paint (ranking 29th), I think when you weigh everything up, Kaman is the one who walks away with the win in this matchup.
stormyseal9 said:Man, this was one of those nights where hardly anyone got a win🤷,but huge props to the few who actually pulled it off😉,because I fell flat on my face😢
Seriously, last night was nothing to write home about—three straight losses in a row. We saw Oklahoma City Thunder lose at home to Houston (missing both Martin and Lowry), and then Sacramento dropped their home game against the Golden State Warriors (without Ellis and Curry) 🙄 🙂
The line for him today is sitting at 29.5 points, which honestly feels pretty massive. I mean, Kobe Bryant usually clears that kind of number without breaking a sweat, but maybe today's the day he stays under—it'd be about time for a breather. It’s hard to make a definitive call when you're talking about someone who could drop 60 points just because he felt like it one night, you know?
My pick: Kobe Bryant under 29.5
🤣 Man, what an analysis for Kobe Bryant; you almost convinced me to take the under myself! 🤔
Try giving us some actual logic behind the play 🤷 because right now it just looks like you grabbed some random picks from an unknown site and passed them to me. 🤷
Washington Wizards under 93.5 points or the game goes under 198.5 Favorite The Dallas Mavericks are coming in as favorites by 10 or more, and honestly, looking at the numbers, it makes sense since they usually hold opponents to about 78 points while putting up an average of 95.7 PPG themselves. Generally speaking, Dallas runs one of the sturdier defenses in the league, especially when they're rocking the home jersey—they’re ranked #5 overall, giving up just 90.8 PPG. Now, even though the Washington Wizards have been heating up lately, we really have to account for the fact that most of those high-scoring bursts happened at home. The Wizards aren't exactly known for being offensive juggernauts when they're playing back-to-back games, so I don't see them blowing past this margin tonight.
Andrew Bynum under 18.5 Favorite I feel like this line is Andrew Bynum under 18.5 favorite slightly overinflated given his recent averages; this number is really just riding the wave of his recent hot streak, but you have to remember that some teams are just struggling significantly with interior defense. The Memphis Grizzlies are right up there with the Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers as one of the top three defenses against centers. Plus, Andrew Bynum hasn't once cleared this specific mark in their head-to-head matchups, and since he's playing on the road tonight, I’m expecting him to stay under.
Ben Wallace under 13.5 Lottery He’s definitely a home-court player, since his scoring average is nearly double what it is when he’s traveling. His whole offensive rhythm relies heavily on transition plays, but the Indiana Pacers are absolute specialists at shutting that down (ranking #3 in the league), so in my book, he stays under.
Kobe Bryant under 29.5 Lottery although Kobe Bryant loves to force things sometimes, my gut tells me he’s going to land just under that 30-point mark. That said, the Memphis Grizzlies have Tony Allen in the lineup this year, so it’s not going to be a walk in the park for Kobe Bryant. Memphis boasts one of the best isolation defenses out there, meaning Kobe Bryant only clears this line if he starts forcing shots until he’s completely exhausted, and I seriously doubt he’ll go on such a reckless tear while playing away from home—though, let's be real, you can never truly predict him. 🤣
Chris Evans over 16.5 Favorite We can say the same thing about Chris Evans regarding his home vs. away splits, as his production is noticeably better in front of his own fans. When his team breaks the 100-point barrier, Chris Evans tends to average about 20.6 points, which could very well happen tonight since the Sacramento Kings are set at a total of 104.5. Looking back at the two times they faced the Golden State Warriors this season, he dropped 26 and 22 points respectively, so the momentum is definitely on his side. ☕
I haven't seen any posts from ramos_4 yet! If you have something they wrote that needs a complete overhaul, just toss it my way and I'll get to work turning it into something that sounds like a real person living in the States. kaže: So, everything from Nicholas Chase34 just went down, thanks a million, legend! 🙏🙏👍
I’m still feeling pretty good about Amar'e being an under against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and definitely taking Blake Griffin as an over (though that might move to a different list)
👍
Man, don't even get me started on Amar'e—when you're going up against Carlos Boozer, nobody is an under, even if he's playing like absolute garbage right now. 🤣
wiredcanyon39 said:Stealing the first and third one😁
Arthur Hill2 said:Derrick Rose is such a wild card, man; he’s basically lurking in the shadows reading everything you guys post just so he can play the exact opposite of what everyone's expecting.
🤣 Derrick Rose, if you’re reading this, come on man, please tell me you aren't going to drop 24 points on the New York Knicks! 😂 😍
Brandon Clark5 said:Hey, what do you think about this:
Kevin Love over 25... honestly, without Rubio, their chances look pretty slim against Phoenix. Love is really going to have to carry the load here because I just don't see anyone else stepping up to that level... Jeremy Lin under 16... I've got a feeling the Chicago defense is going to be way too much for him to handle...
Thanks in advance 😉 cheers
Hmm... looking at it this way, Love without Rubio is going to miss out on a ton of those pick-and-roll opportunities where he usually picks up all his points. Even though Frye hasn't looked like a defensive powerhouse lately, he’s actually done a decent job keeping Love in check during the last few games. I'm not sure—if they were playing at home, maybe, but hitting that line on the road feels like a stretch to me.
As for Lin, he’s showing more and more that he doesn't really have that reliable perimeter shot; most of his production comes from easy layups. I just don't see that working against Chicago, since they protect the paint and the space under the rim so well. Plus, he's playing away from home without the crowd behind him, and we've already seen how Lin can struggle when he goes up against high-level players. 🤷
For today, those three plays I mentioned earlier are really catching my eye: Al Maggette under 22.5(that line feels a bit inflated probably because he's been playing well lately, but I don't think he'll find much breathing room tonight against Luis Ariza, who's a solid defender, not to mention Maggette is on the road, enough said 😛), Wall under 19.5(Wall is definitely one of those guys who thrives at home; he's easily about 30% less effective on the road. San Antonio is bringing their strongest lineup, and they might wrap this game up before the fourth quarter even starts, which could leave Wall riding the bench. Derrick Rose over 23.5 (we saw what Sweet Lou did to the Knicks' defense—he could have easily cruised to +35, but he played a bit too relaxed and ended up stuck at 28, basically because the point guard defense was non-existent. Rose loves playing against the Knicks, so this should be another walk in the park for him, especially with Luol Deng being such a huge question mark right now).☕
Newark vs. Udinese, first goal by Udinese @ 1.9 Lottery
Basically, looking at the stats, Newark is pretty much struggling the most in the league when it comes to striking first—they've only managed to open the scoring just three times out of their last 26 matches (3-26). On the flip side, Udinese's opponents have only beaten them to that first goal three times as well (3-26). Since Udinese has been the team opening the scoring more than anyone else this season (18-26), I really feel like it’s worth taking a shot on this bet.
Stephen Curry (mild right ankle sprain) might have even suited up for Saturday's matchup if things had gone differently, based on what coach Mark Jackson was saying, and he’s fully expecting Curry to play on Sunday. 🤷
Hedo Turkoglu got slapped with a one-game suspension without pay because he got a little too handsy with a ref during the Orlando vs Chicago game this past Thursday. If he decides not to challenge the call, Turkoglu is going to be sitting on the sidelines for the Magic game against the Pacers this Sunday.
On top of that, Jason Richardson is dealing with an ankle issue, so he’s out for Sunday, and coach Stan Van Gundy mentioned he probably won't see any action on Tuesday or Wednesday either.
He put up 24 and 27 points in his last two matchups against Indiana, so he's definitely been heating up lately. 🤔
2:30 PM Detroit Tigers vs. Detroit Pistons (half-time or full-time), pick: draw @ 1.60, DraftKings
We've got a Week 21 matchup in the American first division happening today between the home side, Detroit Tigers, and their visitors, the Detroit Pistons. Right now, the Tigers are sitting comfortably in 8th place with a 7-8-5 record and a goal differential of 18:16, while the Pistons are hanging out in 11th with a 6-5-9 record and a goal differential of 24:22. The reason I’m eyeing this specific bet is honestly because these two squads have been the absolute kings of drawing at the half throughout the entire league. If you look at the numbers, the Tigers have seen 14 draws at halftime over their last 20 games, alongside 4 wins and 2 losses, and the Pistons are looking pretty much identical to them with a 4-14-2 split. When we zoom in on home versus away splits, the Tigers show a half-time record of 2-8-0 at home with a +3 goal difference, whereas the Pistons have gone 0-8-2 on the road with a -3 goal difference. It's pretty clear both teams love to play a tight, defensive style, which is basically the perfect recipe for these kinds of half-time scores. Looking back at the last three times these two clubs faced off, this exact pick hit quite easily. I really think it’s worth a shot here, especially since some other US sportsbooks are only offering odds around 1.45 for this outcome. I actually toyed with the idea of swinging for the fences with a draw at halftime—which is sitting at a juicy 2.1 on FanDuel—but just to play it safe and grab some actual value compared to the rest of the market, I'm sticking with this play.
