Posts by Nicholas Chase34

Arthur Hill2 said:Also, Lin is out for the Knicks

Melo is looking hungry, taking 30 shots🤣

New York under 107.5 @ 1.85

Get in on this before the window closes🙂

😁

David Locke said:Just finished nice conversation with Deron Williams -- I am putting his over under points tonight at 36

Tim Bontemps said:Now #Nets only have three guards available for tonight's game: Deron Williams, Sundiata Gaines and MarShon Brooks.

Facing off against a tired Jazz squad, this feels like the perfect setup for Deron to absolutely light it up, especially since he’ll definitely have that extra fire in his belly playing against his old teammates. Since the backcourt is looking so thin right now, Deron should end up seeing plenty of minutes on the floor. Plus, let's be real, the Jazz defense is struggling big time when it comes to one-on-one coverage—especially Harris—so everything is lined up perfectly for Deron to hit that over.🤷

D.Williams over 22.5 @ 1.85

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Nets walk away with the win here, too.

Brian T. Smith said:With Bell absent and Howard out, Jazz will have 12 players vs. Nets night after four-overtime game.

David Locke said:Last time Jazz played 3 OT v. Miami (Memo 54 mins, Deron 51, Boozer 45) next day 105-87 loss to Orlando - Memo played 13 Deron 31 Boozer 34

edit: Also, Wade over 24.5 looks pretty juicy to me; the Pacers really struggle when defending the post, which is exactly where Wade loves to operate, often pulling up with those silky smooth fadeaways to rack up points. On top of that, Indiana is consistently among the top three teams when it comes to fouling, so there's a good chance Wade gets sent to the free throw line quite a bit. That said, I don't think we're going to see the Pacers get totally dismantled, mostly because the Heat guys are dealing with that Back-to-back fatigue.

It’s basically like watching a high-stakes matchup between a gritty underdog from a mid-sized city like Des Moines and a massive powerhouse out of Chicago. You've got Silkeborg bringing that scrappy, hard-working energy to the pitch, while Copenhagen comes in looking like the heavy hitter everyone expects to dominate the conversation. It’s always fun to see if the little guy can pull off an upset against the big city giants!
Quick heads-up for anyone looking at the slate today: I’m feeling pretty good about seeing at least two goals pop off in that Hattrick matchup, especially since they're sitting at around +105 odds. It feels like one of those games where the momentum just keeps building, much like watching a slow burn turn into a blockbuster movie halfway through.

It’s basically a statistical lock at this point, honestly—looking at the numbers, these two teams have been stuck in that 2 to 3 goal sweet spot more than anyone else in the league so far.
They’ve hit this exact range in 13 out of their last 21 matchups—which is about 62% if you're doing the math—and looking at their most recent five head-to-head battles, they've landed right in that sweet spot four times now.

It’s kind of like watching a matchup between two classic mid-tier teams in the Midwest—maybe something like a matchup between Des Moines and Omaha—where you know there’s going to be some grit and hustle, even if it isn't exactly the Super Bowl. It’s just one of those matchups where you settle in, grab a coffee, and see who manages to find a little bit of magic in the grind.
Hey, just a little heads-up for anyone looking to play the games today: I’ve got my eyes on a solid play where we see at least two goals scored, sitting at around +100 odds over at Hattrick. It feels like one of those matches where the action is bound to pick up early, almost like watching a high-scoring matchup in the NBA where nobody wants to play defense. Definitely worth a look if you're feeling lucky!

So, looking at how things are shaking out with the Portland Timbers lately, they’ve been on this wild streak where they've put up exactly two or three goals in seven straight games. It’s kind of crazy when you step back and look at the big picture, too—out of their last 28 matches, they’ve hit that specific scoring window in 18 of them, which is about 64% if you're doing the math. They really seem to find that sweet spot at home, too, since 9 of their 14 home games have landed right in that same range.

It’s kind of like watching a classic matchup between two heavyweights in the Midwest—think of it as a high-stakes showdown between teams from places like Des Moines and Omaha. It’s going to be an interesting one to watch!
Quick tip for everyone watching the game: I’d say go for a draw at halftime with odds around 2.05 on Hattrick—it feels like one of those matches where both sides are just feeling each other out early on without anyone wanting to commit too hard.

I’d say this is a total value bet if you ask me. Take the first half results for these two teams—it’s honestly kind of wild. One side has seen a draw at halftime in 16 out of their last 21 matches, which is about 76%, meaning statistically speaking, you should be seeing odds around 1.31. On the flip side, you've got the other squad who sits just a little bit lower in that department, pulling off draws in 14 of their 21 games, roughly 66%, which would put the fair odds closer to 1.50. When you realize we're looking at the two teams that lead the entire league in halftime draws, I feel like a realistic price for this should be anywhere up to 1.75 or even 1.80, so this pick could definitely go in our favor. Check out this thread!Honestly, it’s fine if it stays right here in the soccer thread.

Pierce over 18.5 @ 1.85 + Wizards +9.5 @ 1.85 Germany

Pietrus is likely sitting this one out, but Pierce usually shows up big against the Wizards, dropping 34 and 21 in his last two outings. That said, I don't see them absolutely demolishing Washington, especially since they've looked pretty solid lately after bringing in Nene. With Boston dealing with a mountain of injuries, it’s hard to imagine a total blowout happening in this setup.

Jamison over 18.5 @ 1.85 + Duncan under 15.5 @ 1.85 Germany

The Suns have been looking pretty shaky defending the post, which should be plenty for Jamison to hit the over, and considering he’s taking a ton of shots at a 40% clip, he ought to cruise past that line.
Since Duncan is on a back-to-back, Popp will probably try to manage his minutes a bit.

Batum over 13.5 @ 1.85 + Golden State +8.5 @ 1.85 SS

Golden State has been struggling quite a bit with covering spot-up shooters, and since Batum takes about a third of his shots from there, it feels like a great opportunity. Personally, I think Batum knocks down at least 10 points by halftime and finishes with something like 18. I also think GSW covers this spread because their style of play really meshes well against how the Blazers operate, and honestly, given how much Portland has been struggling recently, 8.5 feels like a massive cushion. ☕

Nicholas Chase34 said:4:00 PM Pittsburgh - Buffalo Bisons, pick: both teams to score @ 1.70, DraftKings

Final Score 4:3 👍

4:00 PM Charlotte - Portland- Portland, pick: both teams to score @ 1.65, FanDuel

Final Score 1:0

After an hour of playing with a man advantage, Portland just couldn't capitalize on the extra guy.😠

Stoudemire A(dk)-Kaman C. 1 @ 1.85
Chris Kaman is feeling under the weather and had to head home early during Saturday's shootaround, which leaves his availability for tonight's matchup up in the air.
If you've got him on your roster, you'll probably want to keep a close eye on the news right before tip-off to see where things stand. While Carl Landry should be good to go, Jason Smith is currently sitting out due to a two-game suspension, so if Kaman ends up being sidelined, that frontcourt rotation is going to look pretty thin.

4:00 PM Forfar - Stirling Albion, tip: both teams to score @ 1.70, DraftKings

We’re heading over to the US second division for a matchup between Forfar and Stirling Albion. Right now, both these squads are hanging out near the bottom of the standings, separated by just two points. Forfar is sitting in eighth with a 7-9-13 record and a goal differential of 47:61, while Stirling is right there with them at 7-7-15 and a 38:57 differential. But honestly, let's get to the meat of my bet here—we're looking at two teams that basically have the worst defenses in the league. Forfar leads the pack in being leaky with 61 goals conceded, and Stirling isn't far behind with 57. When Forfar plays at home, they almost always find the back of the net, though they manage to keep a clean sheet maybe once every ten games. On the flip side, Stirling struggles a bit more to score on the road than they do at home, but their defensive issues are pretty much identical to Forfar's. If you look back at their head-to-head history, it’s been nothing but absolute shootouts. In their last four meetings, both sides managed to score at least once every single time, and in three of those, they both put up at least two goals (scores like 2:4, 2:2, and 2:2). So, when you step back and look at the big picture—two defensive disasters facing off against decent enough offenses—it’s super realistic to expect the nets to be rattling on both sides, and the odds are juiced just right to give it a shot.

4:00 PM Barnsley - Peterborough, tip: both teams to score @ 1.65 Favorite

Barnsley is in a bit of a jam because their top two keepers are out, so they grabbed David Button on an emergency loan from Tottenham to fill the gap.
Goalkeeper David Button, an emergency loan signing from Tottenham earlier this week, will continue in the side as both Luke Steele (abdomen) and David Preece (fractured wrist) remain sidelined.

Peterborough has been pretty shaky on the road, managing to keep a clean sheet only once, and they've walked away empty-handed without scoring in four of their away trips. Meanwhile, Barnsley is a different story at home; they've only failed to score twice in 19 matches, and they've only kept a shutout four times.

Their past matchups have been total goal fests
03/12/2011 Championship Peterborough vs. Barnsley 3:4
05/04/2010 Championship Barnsley vs. Peterborough 2:2
31/10/2009 Championship Peterborough vs. Barnsley 1:2
so it feels totally natural to expect that high-scoring madness to carry over today.🤷

shadowjackal27 said:I don't know, maybe we should look into grabbing Mel over 18.5 too? ☕

Man, it feels like just a couple of weeks ago everyone was calling his line at 21 or 22 points, but it looks like they finally woke up and realized what was actually happening. It’s kind of funny seeing them smarten up all of a sudden after being so far off the mark before.
Honestly, he’s only 18 and he already looks like he’s got some serious potential, don't you think? He’s definitely holding his own. What's your take on him?

The value is definitely sitting on the over here, because Melo—who honestly plays like a slightly more chill version of Bryant—is such a pro at drawing contact. He’s got this knack for getting to the charity stripe, so I really think he could easily breeze past that ridiculous line. 🤷

Bosh over 16.5 @ 1.85
He's looking sharp, plus the Detroit frontcourt defense has been looking pretty shaky lately, so I think he eats well tonight.

Pierce under 18.5 @ 1.85
😁Iggy
should be able to hold him down enough.
☕

Jennings hit exactly 19 points 🙂

It's just not happening, man 😠

Jennings under 18.5

So, Brandon Jennings—the guy running the show for Milwaukee—is about to run headfirst into a defensive wall, and I’m talking about Boston. These guys are currently sitting pretty with what feels like the toughest perimeter defense in the league when you look at how they shut down point guards, especially with that 37.9% shooting percentage they force on opponents. Now, Brandon recently got a new partner in crime on the backcourt via trade, Monta Ellis, who was basically the engine behind the Warriors and can easily drop +20 PPG. This means Milwaukee just added another heavy hitter who needs the rock. Honestly, the Bucks have such a deep rotation right now that anyone can step up and grab 15 shots if they need to—we're looking at Ilysov, Gooden, Dunleavy, Delfino, and of course, the newcomer Ellis. Because of that, Jennings doesn't really need to force things; he can just focus on being a pure facilitator since there are plenty of shooters ready to do the dirty work. Since Ellis joined the mix, Jennings hasn't even touched that 18.5 mark, putting up 17, 14, and 15 points in his last three outings. Plus, Boston plays pick-and-roll defense like absolute pros, specifically targeting the ball handler, which is exactly where Jennings usually looks to create his look. He’s been absolutely stifled against the Celtics lately, scoring only 6 and 8 points in their last two matchups, and looking back at his eight games facing Rondo, he only cleared the 18.5 line twice (hitting 23 and 19). Even though he's playing at home, I really think taking the under is the move here because that Boston defense is just too much of a factor to ignore. Over at Pinnacle, the line is set at 17.5 with the under sitting at 1.68, so when you crunch those numbers, it feels like a solid bit of value that I just have to take. ☕

The NBA results have been absolutely wild lately, and honestly, I just can't seem to catch a break when it comes to betting on Kobe Bryant.

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8:30 PM, Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions - pick: both teams to score @ 1.70, DraftKings

The Bills are sitting pretty in 11th place with 33 points, which puts them in a really comfortable spot compared to the relegation zone hovering down at 13 points—which just happens to be where their opponent, the Lions, is currently stuck. Honestly, Buffalo is such a wild ride of a team; they’ve been rolling through the league quite nicely even though their defense is basically a revolving door. It’s actually kind of crazy when you realize they haven't played a single game without conceding a goal yet, which tells you everything you need to know about how shaky their backline is. But hey, they aren't sweating the drop because their offense has been absolutely carrying them lately. On average, Buffalo is pumping out about 2.14 goals at home while letting in 1.57, which gives us a juicy total average of 3.71 goals per match. On the flip side, the Lions are fighting for their lives in the relegation zone right now, so this is the perfect moment for them to pull an upset and snatch all three points from Buffalo. Their rough patch is mostly due to a massive injury bug tearing through the roster, and they've struggled to find any way to fill those gaps. However, they actually showed some life last week when a few guys finally returned from the injured list and caught the 6th-place Eagles totally off guard with a 3:2 win. Even with everyone sidelined, they've managed to find the net against heavy hitters like the Chiefs or the Bengals. Looking at the history books, the Lions have actually won the last four matchups between these two, scoring at least twice in every single one. When you weigh it all up—Buffalo playing high-octane offense with a leaky defense, versus a desperate Lions squad that’s found its rhythm after beating the Eagles and historically holds the edge over Buffalo—it feels like a slam dunk that both sides will find the back of the net. DraftKings is offering a sweet 1.7 line, whereas Bet365 is sitting at 1.53, and over at the local lottery, it’s already dropped down to 🙂 1.45.

Robert Sanders2 said:Hey everyone! I'm new to the group, but I've been lurking for a while now, and honestly, you guys deserve some serious props for how deep your breakdowns go. 😉
For today’s slate, I was thinking about taking the under on Kobe Bryant and the over on Kevin Durant. I'm leaning toward the under on Kobe because he dropped 29 points total against the Dallas Mavericks over their last two matchups, so it looks like their defensive scheme really messes with his rhythm.
I'd love to hear what you all think 😉

Hey there, welcome to the club! 👍

I'm totally on board with you regarding Kobe. 😁

Last night against the Houston Rockets, Kobe shot 10-27 (37%) from the field, which was just enough to squeeze out 29 points and blow past that line, but let's be real—that was against a defense that wasn't exactly suffocating. He’s basically been feasting on them lately. If the Rockets struggled to keep him under 29, imagine how much trouble he'll have running into this elite Dallas defense! They’re sitting comfortably in the top 5 when it comes to guarding the backcourt, they run zone incredibly well, and they’re actually ranked #2 in the league at shutting down spot-up jumpers. Their ability to neutralize pick-and-roll ball handlers is a huge part of why they're so tough, especially with guys like Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, and Beaubois locking things down. Kobe always seems to hit a wall against them; in their last five meetings, he hasn't even come close to clearing the bar, peaking at 23 points before dipping down to 17, 17, 14, and 15 on some pretty shaky shooting percentages. Plus, he usually shoots about 7% worse on the road than he does at home. At the end of the day, I'm just hoping he finally realizes he needs to feed those twin towers, Gasol and Bynum, since that interior game is one of the best in the league. When you weigh it all up, I think it's worth taking the under on a line like 28.5 🙂, which feels way too high given who they're playing; 24.5 would be more realistic.

Also, looking at Bargnani over 17.5, I think he can eat up against a defensively weak Boozer in the post. Between that and picking up a few threes or free throws, that line shouldn't be an issue, especially since he put up 23 and 24 points in their last two H2H matchups. He's also got a great track record playing at home, so he should have everything he needs to put on a show.☕

shadowjackal27 said:Should I grab the Granger over 16.5 in the lottery?

Is it actually worth the juice?

DraftKings has him sitting at 18.5 right now.

🙄

Look, Granger is just classic Granger—he’s basically the black cat of betting where things can get unpredictable fast.

The Clippers have been looking pretty shaky defensively lately, especially with Butler struggling to lock things down in recent games.
For Granger, if he hits his usual rhythm of shooting 6-of-15 from the field, 2-of-5 from deep, and 3-of-4 from the line, he’s already hitting his baseline productivity. 🤣
Plus, when he’s playing on home turf, he tends to hunt his shots a bit more aggressively, so it might be worth a shot. 🤷

I'm also torn between taking the over on Aldridge or Batum.
Both guys usually step up their game significantly when they're playing in front of a home crowd.
Batum has some pretty weak defenders shadowing him right now—think guys like Delfino or Dunleavy—so crossing that 13.5 threshold shouldn't be much of an issue.

Also, Bosh looks like a dream matchup for an over 15.5 play (specifically against Frye), since he's historically had zero issues scoring against him throughout his career.

03:00, Sacramento vs. Memphis, tip: DeMarcus Cousins under 17.5 points @ 1.85, DraftKings

So, looking at DeMarcus Cousins, the Sacramento Kings center is heading into a matchup that looks like a total uphill battle in the paint, especially since they’re facing the Memphis Grizzlies, who basically have one of the most suffocating interior defenses in the league. Last season, those guys were easily sitting in the top three for rim protection. They’ve taken a bit of a hit this year, mostly because Zach Randolph has been out, but now that he's back in the mix, things should feel much more stabilized for them. When you look at the history books, Cousins averages about 11 points over his last six games against Memphis, mostly because Pau Gasol and the rest of that squad know exactly how to shut him down. In their last meeting, Cousins managed to drop 19, but let's be real—that was largely thanks to Thornton getting injured early and forcing some lineup shifts. A huge chunk of Cousins' scoring usually comes from crashing the glass since he's pretty solid on the offensive boards (averaging 4.2 per game), but I really doubt he's going to get nearly as many second-chance opportunities against a Memphis frontcourt that won't give him an inch. Plus, we can't forget that Cousins is notorious for being a bit of a headache when it comes to fouls; he's currently averaging about 4 fouls a game, so there's a very real chance he gets sucked into foul trouble early and spends half the night riding the bench. Even though he’s playing in front of his home crowd where he usually finds a bit more rhythm, facing off against a guy like Gasol—who is such a beast at defending isolation plays and post-ups—makes me think it's going to be a tough night for him to find his scoring touch.

Bradley Kern6 said:Thanks for the input! So, what’s your take on the Houston game? I feel like that would be a killer matchup to bet on. 😉

I don't see any reason why the Lakers wouldn't absolutely crush Houston. Sure, their road record has been kind of a mess lately, but they finally found that missing ingredient—they’ve actually started playing with that steady, rhythmic flow you see from guys like Jalen Brunson. Now that they've tapped into that kind of playmaking rhythm, I'm expecting their game to level up big time, especially when they're playing away from home.
The Houston Rockets are still dealing with Martin and Lowry sitting on the sidelines, and honestly, losing guys like that is such a massive blow to the rotation. It’s kind of like trying to run a high-end kitchen when your head chef and your sous-chef both call in sick at the same time—you might be able to scrape by, but you aren't winning any Michelin stars. Without those two anchoring things, our chances of pulling off a win feel pretty slim, almost like we're playing uphill in a thunderstorm. Why is it such a struggle? Well, it basically comes down to the fact that they provide the backbone for everything we do on the court.
Since they’re missing those two guys who actually know how to draw fouls—you know, basically just racking up easy points at the stripe—they’re in a bit of a spot. Even when they're healthy, the Rockets are pretty much bottom-of-the-barrel in that department, averaging only about 19.9 free throws a game. Honestly, Scola is really the only one out there who can consistently make things happen in the paint; you aren't getting much of a spark from Dalembert or Camby. Then you look at the backcourt and it's just Dragic and Lee, which isn't exactly a lineup that's going to give them an edge over anyone. After that tough loss to the Jazz, I’m really hoping Bryant starts leaning on Bynum and Gasol a bit more instead of just trying to go hero ball on his own. 🤷

Bradley Kern6 said:What’s the vibe on Sacramento? They’re riding high after two straight wins, absolutely dismantling Boston by 25 and taking down Minnesota by 16. Their coefficient is looking pretty sweet at 2.30.

🙂

I mean, I honestly have my doubts about whether the Kings can pull off anything similar against Memphis. It’s kind of hard to see them walking away with a win when you look at their interior defense—they're giving up about 48 PPG in the paint, which puts them dead last at #30—and they're also struggling big time on transition defense, letting in 17.4 PPG, also sitting at #30. Meanwhile, Memphis is basically a juggernaut in those specific offensive categories, sitting comfortably in their top 5. Looking back at the last time these two met when Memphis was in the mix, the Kings got absolutely bullied in the paint by 18 points, even without Zach Randolph being out there. Memphis just knows how to play lockdown defense; they force teams into tons of mistakes, averaging about 17.1 turnovers per game, and they're leading the pack with an average of 10.2 steals. All things considered, if they're facing a full-strength Memphis squad, Sacramento has a pretty slim shot at pulling off an upset 🙂

I’m totally on board with what Howard is saying about his over, mostly because the Bulls have one of the weakest interior defenses in the league right now 😠, which makes it super tough for them to keep him away from the rim where he can just feast on offensive rebounds and turn those into easy buckets. Noah and the rest of that crew honestly don't have any answer for how he plays ☕

Now that Zach Randolph is back in the mix for the Grizzlies, I’m fully expecting them to absolutely steamroll the Wizards.
With Zach Randolph and Pau Gasol patrolling the paint, they’re going to totally overpower the Wizards' frontcourt; I’m eyeing at least 12 offensive rebounds between just those two because, honestly, I don't see anyone on Washington capable of slowing them down. Because of that, I'm throwing out two picks:
Wall under 18,5 (since he’s pretty much always struggled when playing on the road anyway)
Rudy Gay under 20,5 (with guys like Zach Randolph and Pau Gasol doing the heavy lifting, I just don't think the offense is going to need him to score that much).