rustyseal5 said:Yeah, and what part of that isn't crystal clear? 😕
Just because a few individuals screwed up doesn't mean we need to find more idiots to blow their cash the exact same way. Where is your basic logic in all of this?
I'm asking you again... How can you know what tomorrow brings? How can you be sure hyperinflation won't hit and trigger a massive bank run? That's just an assumption on your part that it won't happen, but nobody knows for certain.
I said it in 2008 and I’m saying it today: it isn't happening. Only a complete moron would try to draw parallels between the US and countries that actually lived through hyperinflationary nightmares.
You people have been obsessing over some imaginary hyperinflation for five years straight. Don't come at me again with that tired, broken argument.
You're assuming too much. If hyperinflation actually hits, what are you even going to use to trade for decent goods?
No, time has already proven that you and everyone else like you are just guessing—whereas I actually know. You'll still be making those same assumptions five years from now, while I'll still know that hyperinflation isn't coming.
From that perspective, even though I haven't even posted in this specific thread until today, I have way more credibility on this forum than you do. I could dig up your old posts right now and we'd have to take everything you say today with a massive grain of salt, wouldn't we?
And who are you going to sell art to, especially if that person is sitting in some restaurant without any real power, since that power is drawn from the people?
If things ever actually get that bad, paying a bill at a restaurant is going to be the least of your worries.
Will the average person—who doesn't know which way the wind is blowing—actually buy art they can't afford or use hyperinflated paper money?
You don't have the credibility to say something like that, or for anyone to take you seriously. Period. Time has already shown you were wrong.
Because investing isn't about blind faith; it's about hard data. If you want to rely on faith, go sit in a church or a mosque.
Look, if anyone decides to sell right now, they’ll lose a little at worst. And I mean *little*, especially when you compare it to how much people bleed out when playing with stocks. You can try to crucify me for making that distinction, be my guest.
Why would anyone dump gold right now? Especially if they picked it up just eighteen months ago? Only a fool does that unless they absolutely have to. And if they *have* to, then they made a bad call from the jump. People used to say the same thing about gold as they did about real estate—that prices could only ever go up and never down. Time has a funny way of proving those experts wrong.
To be fair, back in 2009 and 2010, I was personally advising on these boards that you shouldn't just buy when it hit $1,000, but that you should also hold a portion in paper gold because of possible deflation. Gold is a long-term play, and a crisis is always on the horizon eventually.
You also used to write about how the collapse of the dollar and the entire system was just a matter of days. Well, time has shown you weren't exactly right about that.
Mind you, I did sell some gold myself, even though I had cash savings and another family member was liquid. I just realized through practical experience that my investment works best as an immediate hedge, while holding the paper side makes sense as support for my long-term strategy.
I think we can all agree that as a long-term investment, gold isn't a bad move.
So, in the absolute worst-case scenario, people lost 15%. But we've always emphasized that this protection is meant for a timeframe of ten years or more. Anyone looking for a quick flip should have stuck to paper gold.
And that’s exactly the problem. People bought in hoping to walk away with a 10% or 30% profit in six months. In the end, they ended up in the red.
I don't see the issue with me saying that gold is a terrible short-term investment, especially if you look at the last year and a half.
What you're saying is flat-out wrong.
Look, what we really need to point out is that while we’re seeing this massive spike in food prices, energy costs, utilities, and government services...
You can't just talk about rising food and energy costs while ignoring the fact that some prices are actually dropping. For the last year and a half, we've seen a seesaw effect—prices going up, then down. Look at oil today; it's sitting right where it was back in 2010. So, what kind of inflation are we even talking about here? Or is your definition of inflation strictly limited to when things get more expensive, while you conveniently ignore it when they drop?
Basically, your "famous" inflation theory boils down to the fact that oil is back to 2010 levels. That means three years of absolutely nothing happening.
And I'm not using America as an example here, just like you gold bugs refuse to use anything else.
...but on the flip side, there's a decline in property values and all the assets held by average Americans (whose standard of living has plummeted). Combined with private sector deleveraging, this actually dampens inflationary pressures... otherwise, it would be significantly higher...
That wouldn't even be a factor if all that money printing hadn't failed to trickle down into actual income. Let's be real: real wages have been sliding for the last three or four years.
So, what we're facing right now is a mix of deflation (in terms of what citizens own) and inflation (in terms of what citizens need)... which, in a single word, is stagflation.
Inflation of what? The cost of most things is hovering right around pre-crisis levels. In some sectors, it's actually lower.
As for the money printing, it's not like it isn't happening; you can clearly see here how $80 billion was conjured out of thin air in a single day.
And? What? Did that money magically land in people's wallets? They could print another $10 trillion tomorrow and nothing fundamental would change. All that cash ends up flowing straight into capital markets and, of course, into gold. Eventually, prices settle based on fundamentals, which is why we're stuck in a spot where oil is priced like it's 2010 again.
Why wouldn't you use a hedge to protect your principal? I'll say it again: you can lose massive amounts on individual stocks. Look at the data—compare those losses against how much gold and silver have gained over the same three-to-five-year periods. It’s simple math.
You’ve been obsessing over some supposed hyperinflation for the last five years. Now you’re coming at me again with that same tired, fundamentally flawed argument.
Real inflation is already well north of 10%, and I expect that number to climb. Just ask everyday Americans about their cost of living; if you can look past the insults, the reality is clear.
No, time has proven that you and others like you prefer guessing while I prefer knowing. You’ll still be making those same assumptions five years from now, but I already know hyperinflation isn't coming.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Even though I haven't posted on this specific thread before, my credibility on this forum far outweighs yours. I could easily dig up a few of your old posts to prove that everything you're claiming today should be taken with a massive question mark.
Let’s get back to it. I argued that avoiding hyperinflation for the dollar would be an uphill battle. Looking at the situation now, maybe we just got lucky, but don't hold your breath. How much value has the dollar actually shed over the last five years? Let me save you the math: it has lost a massive chunk of its purchasing power—at least 20%, if not more. Meanwhile, gold and silver have surged by 50%. My conclusions are set in stone. If I had stayed strictly in dollars—or even euros, to be honest—I would have lost dozens of percentage points compared to the cost of food, energy, gold, and silver. The math simply doesn't add up.
If you manage to get to that point, your biggest headache will probably just be settling the tab at a restaurant.
I've lost my appetite for fine dining. I'd much rather just grab some street food.🤣
You lack the credibility required to make claims like that, let alone be taken seriously. Time has already proven you wrong.
The data regarding gold, silver, food, and energy clearly confirms I was right all along.
Investments aren't based on faith; they're based on data. If you want to rely on faith, go to a church or a temple.
I’ll say it again: I stick to the facts when looking at a 3-5 year horizon, because that's what the numbers suggest. Look for yourself...
As for the short term, I have no idea what happens next. I don't trade short-term; I just hedge my position.
Why would anyone sell gold right now? Especially if they bought in eighteen months ago? Unless they absolutely have to, only a fool would do that. And if they have to, they made a bad call. Gold was the same story as real estate. The price can only go up, never down. Time has proven everyone who claimed otherwise wrong.
It's easy enough for me to find my own posts where I warned about heavy corrections. It would be helpful if you could actually point out where I said gold "can only go up."
You also wrote that the collapse of the dollar and the entire system was just a matter of days. Time has shown you weren't right.
I predicted the dollar would weaken within a year or two, and it did...
Essentially, my conclusions were sound. First, I don't buy government figures claiming inflation is at 2%. It's significantly higher than that. During that window, gold and silver rose 50%, and food and energy prices followed suit. We aren't seeing hyperinflation, but we aren't far from it either. The core of my analysis holds up. Theoretically, dollar hyperinflation could happen tonight; gold and silver, quite simply, are not going to fail.
I think we can all agree that gold is a solid long-term investment.
Amen to that.
And there's the issue. People bought in hoping to walk away with a 10% or 30% profit in six months. In the end, they lost money.
So where is the issue if I state that gold is not a smart short-term play, especially considering the last eighteen months?
That's their problem, not the problem of the people here who cautioned against it. No one is giving short-term advice on this forum.