rustyseal5 said:Look, what I’m saying is that images function just like gold does. You have this endless flood of websites and mainstream media outlets constantly buzzing about it every single day. If we had seen the same kind of frenzy surrounding digital imagery that we've witnessed with gold over the last eight years, then images would be just as much of a high-demand commodity right now.
Maybe. I didn't say that. I'm simply saying art is fragile and perishable. Gold isn't much different. When I claim gold preserves purchasing power, I mean it literally—it protects the actual value stored within. Owning gold gives you a stake in paper assets or even art if you choose. I have nothing against art, especially considering how they manipulate the paper price of gold. But insisting on art alone while ignoring gold? Not happening. Not to mention, art is far too expensive for the average person. A legitimate painting is incredibly valuable. Take Vincent van Gogh, for example. If we're talking about two-dimensional works, that's art at its absolute peak. Of course, that assumes such a thing were actually for sale and I had enough money left over after buying it...
Besides, we’ll probably just integrate further into the system, so maybe we can play the "banana republic" card for a little longer. Something like Romania or Bulgaria. If they can pull it off... Let's face it, half—if not more—of the countries in the EU are basically banana republics. That much is obvious.🤣
I'm with you on that. But don't look at Romania or Bulgaria as the benchmark; they haven't even been in the club for ten years. Look at Greece, Portugal, or Spain—they've been members for decades.
The EU members are neck-deep in a massive pile of crap. It's clear we're watching an era of global dominance reach its final, desperate gasp.
Now, all they have left to do is try to manufacture some kind of "United States of Europe" fantasy, and the endless cycle of fake happiness will continue.
And it's necessary... if I were actually in charge... I'd finish the job however I saw fit... On another note, if I may observe, one of your eyes still hasn't quite closed.😉 🤣
rustyseal5 said:Because people haven't been "brainwashed" into believing in gold the way they have. 🤷
And how exactly do you view a painting—with something other than your brain? So, according to this logic, one needs to "wash their brain" just to appreciate art. Ergo, we should all just drone on about gold. I’ve seen enough in practice to know gold preserves value; as for paintings, I’m not even sure what exactly they preserve given how easily they can be burned or ruined. That doesn't mean art isn't a decent way to store wealth—perhaps even more efficient in some ways—but it comes with baggage and question marks. Gold minimizes those uncertainties. If someone wants both gold and fine art, by all means, go ahead. But to me, owning art without owning gold is just illogical. You have to eat every day, and as far as I know, gold has a much larger market than paintings.
rustyseal5 said:We aren't the USA. The US economy has been growing for three years straight. This country has always been a total circus, and frankly, nothing has changed.
We aren't getting out of this crisis anytime soon.
Fine. And? In my household, we’ve barricaded ourselves on just about every level... from production all the way down to consumption. So, prices are crashing? Great. That creates the assumption of growth built on actual foundations. Agony? Personally, I expect at least another 20 years of this... I'm talking about my own family; everyone else can fend for themselves, and the people at the top can handle the state.😉 Since nobody wants to listen anyway. Besides, we'll probably join the European Union, so maybe we can remain a dysfunctional mess for a little longer. Something like Romania or Bulgaria. If they can manage it... Actually, half—if not more—of the countries in the European Union are practically dysfunctional. That much seems obvious.🤣
lonehawk5 said:The TL;DR version for all you fundamentalists out there... According to the CBO's baseline projections for the ten-year outlook, that budget deficit is supposed to plummet from the current 7% of GDP down to just 2.5% in only three years. We’re talking about the $1.15 trillion deficit from 2012 shrinking all the way down to a measly $433 billion by 2015. They're predicting nominal economic growth of 3.1%, 3.5%, and then hitting 5.9%. Apparently, tax revenue is going to skyrocket while spending stays under control. Plus, they claim interest on ten-year Treasuries won't top 3.5% by 2015. And since the Federal Reserve promised to keep things steady, interest on 90-day Treasuries shouldn't climb above 20 bps. Inflation will remain high and the interest component of the consolidated budget will go from $223 billion to a mere $273 billion.
If this actually happens, where the hell is gold gonna be?☕
You're looking at a best-case scenario. If this holds, the paper economy stabilizes and we finally exit the crisis. But you're asking about gold... A crisis will likely return eventually—maybe not in ten years, perhaps in fifty. That’s when gold, which acts as a long-term store of value, finally pays off.😉 I still prefer having that insurance policy on hand, whether I need it this afternoon or when I'm ninety.
Paint might hold its value better in the short term, but it’s far more fragile.Metal requires almost impossible conditions to destroy, and it's much easier to preserve. Plus, the market for art is tiny, and nobody would even consider buying a painting that's damaged or warped...
rustyseal5 said:Look, my take is simple: if you already hold gold, don't touch it. If you're looking at a medium to long-term play, go ahead and buy. But if you're eyeing a 6 to 12-month window? Stay away.
I honestly don't get why people struggle to grasp my point. I am telling people: do not buy gold if you need that cash back in six months or a year. It's a gamble. Nobody—and I mean nobody—can tell you what the price will be in 6 months versus 12 months. Anyone claiming they know whether it's going up or down is simply LYING to your face.
As far as the long-term trend goes, I think we can all agree that gold is headed up. 🤷
And how do you know a crisis won't hit tomorrow? If it does, those without it will be left stranded. You don't actually know, yet you insist people shouldn't buy. That's probability, not certainty. Personally, I try to keep my gambling exposure to a minimum. In fact, for the short term, I'm almost rooting for a price drop—just so I can prepare better and lock everything in to secure myself for the very long haul. But even if it climbs, I won't be caught off guard. For prices to spike like that, things would have to go completely haywire, and I might take a hit on the paper side. Nothing is ever certain, including my own take, so... I suppose one should just appreciate the beauty of the game. If I were bored, I wouldn't be saying any of this.
rustyseal5 said:Look, I’m not trying to lecture you. I’m just giving you the straight truth on how things used to be versus how they are right now.
I’ve been crunching the numbers, and I've come to a pretty blunt conclusion: this round of QE kicked off right when oil prices were hitting their absolute peak. It's hard to ignore that correlation.
Honestly, I don't see why anyone is making such a big deal out of this. It’s trivial. If we were talking about a massive 10% or 20% swing, then maybe we’d have something to discuss, but we're talking about a difference of a few bucks here. A few dollars! Give me a break. Besides, looking at the oil markets, I just don't see any way prices are hitting $110 in the next year, let alone touching those legendary $150 peaks everyone keeps obsessing over. It’s just not happening. Oil fluctuates, sure—it’s always bouncing around—but if you look at the last five years, it’s mostly just been idling between $90 and $110. It stays in that lane. Period.
Look, here’s how I see it. If we get hit with another round of QE, oil prices are going to spike. It’s happened every single time we've seen this kind of stimulus before. Once those energy costs climb, they’re going to put massive pressure on an already fragile economy, eventually forcing us straight into a recession and tanking demand. At that point, QE stops being a magic wand and just stops working altogether. So, what happens then? Is this actually the start of the massive bull market everyone is currently shouting about, or are we all just witnessing one final, desperate bear market rally?
Look, when you step back and look at monetary policy through a macro lens, we’ve clearly hit a wall. We're reaching the absolute limits of what can actually be done. But? If you shift your perspective toward the stock market, those boundaries basically vanish. There is no ceiling. As long as the Federal Reserve decides they want to print money, they can. They’ll keep pumping liquidity into the system just to keep the stock market from ever seeing a real collapse. It's a rigged game, plain and simple.
Yeah, gold is totally undervalued right now. Honestly, the stock market is only staying on life support because of constant QE. It’s artificial.
How is this even possible? Gold is up 60%—and don't even get me started on inflation, because that definitely isn't the reason here—yet the stock market is sitting at a measly 14% gain. We’re talking about corporate earnings hitting historic highs right now. It makes zero sense.
I don't get this.
I’m talking about corporate profits hitting levels we have never seen before. Seriously, they're at historic highs. They’ve never been this bloated.
Look, you can throw around numbers like $145 or that $34 mark from back in 2008 all day long, but honestly? It’s useless. You aren't going to draw any intelligent conclusions from them. That specific growth spurt was its own freak occurrence within the commodity bull market—a total outlier. And that crash down to $34 right after? Just as much of a one-off. Comparing it to anything else today is just bad math.
😕
Quote: Back then, you guys called $150 oil "inflation." Now, suddenly, $90 oil is also "inflation" caused by reckless money printing. You just move the goalposts whenever it suits your narrative.
Yeah, right. Like I’m actually in a position to manipulate the price of gold.
I was talking about the context of your posts. 😁
Way back in October 2011, I mentioned we were looking at at least a year of consolidation for gold. Look, I'm not big on manipulation theories, but in November 2013, there was this low-volume after-hours attack on gold right when it should have been breaking out. It dragged out the consolidation, sure, but there's no way that stopped a bull market that's been running for 12 years straight.
That has absolutely nothing to do with the fundamentals that have driven gold prices since the beginning of time. Based on actual fundamentals, gold has a specific value. It doesn't go higher than $1,800.
Right now? Given the massive debt levels, it’s definitely headed up in the long run—but let's be honest, we'll all be dead by then anyway.
What most gold bugs dream about is some grand conspiracy where they manipulate gold to prevent the total collapse of our monetary system. It’s pure idiocy. I honestly don't understand how someone with even average cognitive abilities can swallow such nonsense and base an entire investment strategy on it.
Usually, this kind of frustrated tone on the forums is a reliable indicator that gold has hit bottom or is very close to it.
The only people who are frustrated are the ones who bought in eighteen months ago and are currently sitting on losses. They bought in because they listened to the amateurs posting on this thread. One amateur reads another amateur, buys in, and suddenly their "short-term trade" becomes a "long-term investment" out of pure necessity. 😁
You’re throwing around plenty of insults, yet you lack any actual facts to back them up. We’ve always maintained that gold is fundamentally a long-term play, even if nobody can pinpoint exactly when a crisis will hit or when prices will spike. I've said it myself. Honestly, I'm starting to bore myself with my own repetition. My point is this: should we sell gold right now or not? Give me a straight answer to a direct question. You claim it's smart for the long haul, but insist there won't be any more short-term surges. Fine. Give me a specific timeframe so we can actually judge your logic.
rustyseal5 said:That pretty much sums up this whole debate. Sure, it’ll go up eventually, but only God knows when it’ll actually hit those levels. And who knows? Maybe it won't even happen. Half the people pushing this "market manipulation" narrative are nothing but skeptics who don't see gold as a true store of value, but just some tool for "manipulation, robbery, and greed."😁
You're wondering if it's time to dump some gold for cash because you said "maybe"... Let me be clear: I'm not selling, even if we fall straight into an abyss or deflation hits hard. Gold is the hedge against inflation. My real dilemma isn't about the current price, but rather figuring out how adding more would actually impact my "paper" assets.
analogharbor44 said:Since you haven't doubled down yet, I'm guessing you're bracing for a dip. Or maybe you've flipped your position and you're just waiting on Jim Sinclair's birthday like some kind of 🙄 ?
I have no idea what Charlemagne is waiting for, but personally, I'm just holding out for the bail out...🤣
lonehawk5 said:I'll pop in every now and then... just to see how your little predictions are doing. What’s the magic number today? $2,000, $5,000, $30,000?...☕
It’s incredibly difficult for manipulators to maintain this kind of pressure indefinitely. Eventually, they have to crack. In fact, I’d prefer if this drag continues a bit longer; it gives me more time to get my ducks in a row. If we play this right, the ultimate "penalty" for these players will be so massive they won't even think about manipulation again. The timeline? Five to ten years would be ideal to ensure that once things finally align, they move aggressively. The price target? Mike Maloney has mentioned $20,000. It’s a bold claim—one I barely dare to contemplate—but the longer the crowd stays sidelined, the harder the eventual breakout could be.
Just stating the facts: I was bullish on gold when it was sitting at $1,000. It’s nearing $1,600 now. Silver was under $20; today it’s pushing $30. That’s a 50% gain in both instances. I doubt many people on this board can claim the same. That was back in 2009 or 2010. I don't see why anyone would call that a reliable contrarian indicator. A little clarification would be appreciated, especially since I’ve always emphasized looking at the long-term forecast.
hollowmoose21 said:hollowmoose21 is being a skeptic. Honestly? I think that’s a solid red flag. 😁
I wouldn't underestimate the paper-pushers in the bond market. They have a knack for cutting interest rates in half just to keep the retail speculators on the hook for as long as possible. Sure, it puts the entire bond market at risk, but we apparently have plenty of "future reserves" to burn through. 😉 So, I’m skeptical about the short-term forecast, nothing more. Long-term? I’m a moderate optimist. Where the price is headed... well, I'll leave that to the experts.
They might try to shave them down just to book some paper profits. Sure, a profit is a profit... But it’s not exactly in the banks' best interest for this game to end on paper alone. There is still plenty of money to be made out there, so I highly doubt they'll attempt to push past $2,000 via paper Gold. Besides, if they can make better margins elsewhere and hedge with paper, why bother aggressively hiking the price through paper Gold? The Dollar still has some decent purchasing power left in it... That said, if someone really wants to push for short-term gains, let them. We'll see how that ends up working out for them. Personally, I don't see that looking good in any realistic scenario...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg58hVEY5Og
"to be or not to be"😁 And just like that, it's gone. Or maybe I should just call this whole ship a sinking vessel... And honestly, I always appreciate it when Kirk shakes my hand.😂
It’s just a minor chart, and honestly, a short position on paper Gold isn't exactly catastrophic.😁 Besides, it isn't exactly Vincent van Gogh; he's the only true magician I know—everything looks realistic, yet it's all an illusion... Whenever there's a massive short position in paper Gold, those "players" always find a way to suppress the price just to cover their tracks. If only I knew how they pull it off or when they intend to strike, I might actually be able to navigate this better... To quote Gargamel: I'll get you, I'll get you all, even if it's the last thing I do... Whether his plan actually works remains to be seen...
2011 was a year where gold saw massive rallies followed by brutal crashes... It was an absolute disaster for long-term investors if they bought at the peak. Looking at how dull the drill has been here in 2013, there really shouldn't be years with swings of several hundred dollars. But hey, who knows. It’s already obvious that things are getting significantly more complicated in the market. I still maintain that for anyone without gold, buying and holding it as insurance is the smart move. I could easily pick up 8 or 10 ounces tomorrow to solidify my position while staying liquid, but I won't do anything out of pure panic. I'll wait for the market to start "drawing pistols" and send prices through the roof. I've already paid a premium for everything, even though there were times when I was bone dry. Being broke actually forced me to sell 3 ounces in early 2012 due to some other unexpected events. My Goldman Sachs moment. So, let the market decide how much further it wants to squeeze everything downward. Personally, it would actually be quite uncomfortable if prices spiked right now. That's when I'd jump back in to patch the obvious hole in my own balance sheet. I can smell trouble coming—mostly due to paper trading, but an extra hit to gold isn't out of the question. Maybe I'll grab some silver; that wouldn't hurt either, perhaps even more for the long term. Right now, I'm sitting on 370 ounces, which feels a bit light. Just to comment on the ratio of the NYSE to gold: it's currently over 8, which is quite something. The NYSE itself is at 14,000, which is high—bordering on ridiculously unrealistic, especially considering the dollar still has decent purchasing power, but whatever.☕
"Another telegram was sent into the ether, and then all went silent. The coffin lid closed over the sixth army (and a fascist one at that)..."
Melissa Sanchez17 said:That's like maybe $20 more per ounce than what you'd find at a place like JPMorgan. 😂 It really would be a shame to let this one slip by. 😂
Hey man, what’s the drive to Denver look like? Should I even mention where you're planning to dump that?