Thursday, November 28, 2013 Europa League 7 PM Rijeka vs. Vitoria Guimaraes -3 1.70 (0-0)
This is a massive game for Rijeka. The Portuguese side is in a total slump, coming off five straight losses, so I guess this is a prime opportunity for Rijeka to grab a win on the European stage. They’ve proven they can be incredibly difficult to play against at home, acting as a tough nut to crack even for superior teams. That said, knowing how Coach Kek operates, I don't expect any reckless attacking or overly open play here. I anticipate Rijeka will control the tempo, though there might be a few goals. Maybe. Kek would likely rather play a bit more conservatively to secure a point at the end than overextend himself and risk a loss.
Both teams are struggling right now. Ajaccio has only managed to scrape together two measly points from their last seven matches, leaving them sitting way down in 19th place. Marseille managed to beat Sochaux 2-1 at home this past week, which I guess gave them a much-needed confidence boost after a rough patch in the league and a string of losses in the Champions League. They've essentially lost any realistic shot at advancing in the Champions League, so they have to put all their focus back on the domestic league. They're currently in 5th place, so a win is pretty much mandatory here. Quality-wise, they are significantly better than these underdogs from Corsica. There's no reason for them to hold anything back for European play anymore, so I'm expecting a win.
I suppose I’m only picking this because it’s just a friendly. Both sides play a very attacking style of football, and their forwards are clearly the strongest part of both squads. Since they're playing in St. Louis on neutral ground, we should expect an entertaining match with plenty of chances for both sides, so I guess some goals are likely rather than a dull, defensive tactical grind.
Thursday, Nov 14, 2013 U21 European Championship Qualifiers 8:30 PM
USA - Spain 3.5+ @ 1.90 (1:6)
The first matchup ended 3-2 in favor of Spain. Spain is sitting at the top of their group with a perfect record. Their goal differential over four matches is 14-4; they score plenty, and most of their games tend to go over three goals. The USA has a goal differential of 8-10 through five matches, which averages out to nearly four goals per game as well. Since the odds for over 3+ are only 1.35, I guess it might be worth taking the 3.5+ at 1.90 and hoping for just one extra goal. The USA will likely have to play aggressively here, as they still have a shot at one of the four best runner-up spots to qualify for the playoffs.
Sevilla (-1+) - Slovan Liberec | Sevilla Over 1.35 (1:1)
The last matchup ended in a 1-1 draw over in the Czech Republic, though I guess Sevilla controlled most of the possession and created significantly more chances. I suspect they'll play even better at home and might manage at least two goals.
Europa League 9:05 PM
AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Karagandy f+2 | 1.55 (1:0)
The Kazakh side is decent enough when playing at home, but they're a different story on the road; they've been conceding quite a few goals in European play this season. AZ should probably handle this routinely against the spread.
Galatasaray is a very solid squad, though they seemed sharper last year under Fatih Terim. Maybe Roberto Mancini just needs more time to settle things in.😁 They definitely have a high-quality roster capable of holding their own against the big clubs, but like you mentioned, almost everyone manages to find the back of the net against them. Both outcomes could easily happen here, though I haven't checked the odds on that yet.
I like the option where FC Copenhagen scores. I’m actually expecting a wild match with a crazy scoreline, maybe something like 3:3 or a 2:4 win for the Turks; I wouldn't be surprised.
Viktoria Plzen - Bayern Munich Bayern win DA 1.45 (0:1)
I have been pushing this option for the Bavarians for a while now, and it generally holds up. I have already noted how impressive they are, but they showed their true strength just two weeks ago against the Czech side. I don't see any significant change in the dynamic on the pitch here. So, I expect another barrage of shots against the home goalkeeper and at least one or two goals in each half.
Champions League 20:45
Shakhtar Donetsk - Bayer Leverkusen Over 3.5 goals DA 1.95 (0:0)
Shakhtar is a different team when playing at home compared to their away matches. They will likely attack, and given their strong offensive line, they should manage to score at least once. On the other hand, they struggled easily in Leverkusen, where they conceded four. I believe Bayer will exploit the open play of the Ukrainians and find the net at least once.
The home side is sitting at the bottom of the table. They have managed only one win and have just 9 points total, coming off a rough stretch of two draws and five losses in their last seven matches. Wisla has picked up two wins in a row. They are currently in 3rd place, and if they pull this one off, they'll move into 2nd, tied on points with the leaders, Legia. Decent odds here; maybe worth a look.
Netherlands 2nd Division 8:00 PM Helmond Sport vs Ajax Jong Over 2.5, 1.45 (3:2)
The young Ajax squad is in a terrible slump. They've been conceding a massive amount of goals lately; looking at their recent scores (2:1, 2:3, 1:3, 0:3, 1:5, 0:4), it's pretty clear. Helmond also tends to see plenty of goals at both ends. Their first matchup against them this season ended 2:1.
It's the penultimate round of the season. Second-place Rosenborg is currently sitting on a three-point lead over Stromsgodset, so they really need this win. If they pull it off, they still have a slim chance at the title, provided the leaders slip up. Viking is sitting in 6th. They aren't in contention for Europe, so this match doesn't mean much for them. Rosenborg should theoretically take this one.
Sunday, Nov 3, 6 PM
Besiktas vs Karabukspor 1 1.50 (0:0)
After a strong start and a decent winning streak, Besiktas has hit a wall. They've managed just one win in their last five matches, with two draws and two losses mixed in. They're in 4th place and hosting 13th-place Karabukspor, who has struggled significantly with only one point on the road. It won't be a walk in the park, as games in Turkey can get pretty hostile, but it might be time for Bilić to finally snap this slump. The odds seem decent enough.
Saturday, Nov 2, 7:00 PM Wolfsberger - SV GrödigOver 2.5 goals at 1.70 (1:1)
The first matchup this season ended in a 4:3 win for Grödig. Wolfsberger has managed to both score and concede in each of their last six matches, while Grödig seems to be part of the most high-scoring games out there. They both tend to play wide-open football—you often see scores like 4:3 or 3:3—so I guess it's worth a shot.
Saturday, Nov 2, 8:30 PM
Legia Warsaw - Zaglebie Lubin 1 at 1.35 (2:0)
Legia sits in 1st place while Zaglebie is down in 13th. Legia hasn't secured a win in their last three outings, and the top of the table is getting crowded, with four clubs separated by only two points. A win is basically mandatory today. Zaglebie has lost their last two, and I'm hoping that trend continues.
Bayern continues to maintain an exceptional level of form. Hoffenheim sits comfortably in 8th place, so maybe they might try playing more openly today. Bayern will certainly attempt to impose themselves, just as they do in every match they play. I expect at least one goal in each half, given how easily they create scoring opportunities.
This isn't exactly a lock. You have 14th playing 23rd, but I guess Ipswich is strong enough at home that a win might actually pull them into the top 10. The main argument for this pick is Barnsley's disastrous away record; they haven't managed a single win in five road games. On top of that, their defense is incredibly porous—arguably the worst in the league. They’ve already conceded 30 goals, which averages out to more than 3 per game.
Kansas City Chiefs - Baltimore Ravens 1 1.40 (2:0)
Unlike last season when they were actually a hot team, Kayserispor Robert Prosinečki started this campaign poorly and they are currently sitting at the bottom of the table. They’ve had some decent performances too, though they somehow managed to drop plenty of points in stoppage time. Over the weekend, they played a solid game at home, even if they did lose 2:4 to the Los Angeles Lakers. Today they host a third-division side; I suppose it's an ideal chance for a turnaround, so a win would be quite significant. Since this cup phase is a single-match format, I believe they can get it done without needing extra time or penalties. They really need this momentum because, honestly, they have a pretty good squad.
Nicholas Jones80 said:I'm leaning toward a draw in Real Sociedad vs Valladolid at 2.50. And naturally, I see some decent value at 2.80 for Napoli against Fiorentin.
Maybe back those picks up with a few actual arguments.
After a disastrous start to the season, Los Angeles has managed a few wins and currently sits in 11th place. Given what this club aims for, that’s pretty underwhelming. They even took a heavy 4:1 loss away at Villarreal last week. It might be the perfect moment for them to fix their reputation, as they face bottom-of-the-table Almeria. The visitors have only 3 points, zero wins, and a goal difference of 11:23. The visitors are on a five-game losing streak and look quite bad. I guess Los Angeles should handle this one routinely.
Wisla has been inconsistent this season; they tend to settle for draws on the road, but they’ve been absolutely crushing teams at home. They currently sit third in the standings, trailing Legia and Gornik by 4 points, though they do have a game in hand over Gornik. At home, Wisla boasts a goal difference of 11:1. Widzew is sitting near the bottom of the table. They've picked up all their points at home, but their away record is 0-0-5 with a goal difference of 3:15. Head-to-head matchups have been pretty one-sided. Wisla has won their last 8 home games, and I don't see any reason why that streak would end here. The odds look solid; it might be worth a shot.
Pontedera sits in second place. They suffered a heavy 5-0 loss last week against league leaders Frosinone, but they are trailing by only one point. If they pull off this win, they’ll take over first place. Only the top spot earns direct promotion to the higher division, while everyone else drops into the playoffs. The race for the top is tight, so they can't afford any slip-ups. Nocerina is dead last with just a single point. They haven't picked up a single point in their last six matches, posting a goal difference of 5:19. I wouldn't call this a lock, mostly because things can get unpredictable in the third tier where match-fixing is always a possibility, but it's a decent value play given the gap in quality, form, and current standings.
LA Galaxy is struggling right now. They drew in San Diego, suffered a blowout in Bulgaria, scraped a win against San Francisco in stoppage time, and then lost again at Central Park in Miami. Then, much like before the return leg in Vienna, Zoki takes over the bench and the players suddenly look better, managing a 0:0 draw against the favorites, PSV. I guess the approach and motivation change when the boss is actually on the sidelines. Dragovoljac is sitting near the bottom, locked in a tight fight with Indianapolis to avoid relegation. They seem like the perfect opponent to boost their confidence, while for the Galaxy, following that cup match in a small town, USA, this might be an opportunity to finally score more than once.
As I mentioned a few days ago, Bayern Munich looks impressive. I guess there isn't a team in Europe right now that creates as many chances, registers as many shots on goal, or dominates the pitch quite like the Bavarians. Hertha Berlin is holding their own lately and sits at 4th in the standings, but I expect the home side to go on the offensive from the very start. Last round against Mainz 05, Bayern went into the break with a 0-1 deficit, only to completely fall apart and concede four goals in the second half. I suspect they won't allow any chance to slip backward today. Since they only have a one-point lead over second place, there really is no room for complacency. For context, in their last Champions League match against Viktoria Plzen, they managed 35 shots, 22 of which were on target. One could reasonably expect one or two goals in each half to find the back of the net against Hertha Berlin.