Posts by stormyharbor13

Poland 22:24 fell apart

By the way, Qatar is up by 6 against Germany

I rarely use offshore sportsbooks, though I've placed a few bets on BetMGM in the past. Honestly, I'm pretty shocked by how weak their odds are. I guess there's a reason for that.

Maybe I'm in the wrong thread, my bad.

By the way, Marseille is the champion; the odds dropped to 10.00, which I guess I should have grabbed 🙂

Borussia Dortmund - Hamburg 1 @1.35 SS (0-1)

Following a string of bad luck, they lost 0-3 away at Anderlecht.
It might be time for things to turn around in the league. They have an ideal opponent and decent odds; in my opinion, this is a safe bet.

Zoom, 👍 I’m looking at Marseille. They’re playing incredible football right now, and having no European fixtures to deal with gives them a massive advantage.

13:45 Liverpool vs. Everton 2 @4.20 SS (1-1)

It’s a solid value play. I guess Everton is being underestimated here.
Despite a rocky start, they seem to be playing better than Liverpool lately—just playing this wild, aggressive attacking style where they look poised to score every single game.
I put a small amount on this as part of a parlay to boost the total payout, so we'll see how it goes. 🙂

Spurs supposedly have a makeshift lineup today, but even like this, they should take all three points.

I might give it a shot. Sevilla leads 2-0. Which standard player actually performs well in this tournament against... I suppose there might be some discussion regarding Feyenoord, though I find the topic somewhat lacking in substance. Perhaps we could pivot to a more substantial subject. I guess you'd just say they're mid-tier or decent enough. Maybe even just okay. 1,45.
Plus Panathinaikos vs. Dynamo Moscow: Double chance on the away side (X2) at 1.45. I guess it's a decent play.I guess the Russians are a significantly better side. They create more scoring opportunities and should theoretically improve once they move past those recent qualifying issues.
To increase the odds, I guess I would also add... Everton vs. Wolfsburg: Over 2.5 goals at 1.70. Final score was 4-1.Everton is playing insanely well right now. I think they could easily put two past anyone at home, though I suspect the visitors might manage one in what should be a very high-quality match.

Tuesday, 08.12.
20:45
Carling Cup, England

Millwall - Wycombe 1 @1.50 SS (1-0)

Millwall started the season reasonably well, coming off a 2-0 win against Leeds.
They have struggled in the Championship over the last few years, though they have historically performed well in cup competitions.
Their opponent is Wycombe from League Two, who barely avoided relegation to the Conference last season, finishing 22nd.
I suppose the question is how seriously individual clubs take this tournament, but I suspect Millwall is the superior side and should handle this at home quite easily.

Monday, 08/11
10 PM
Stjarnan - Thor 1 @1.50 SS (2-1)

Second-place Stjarnan is currently riding high after knocking out Lech to reach the Europa League playoffs. They face a bottom-tier Thor side that has managed only a single point all season.
The odds look decent enough here; this feels like a solid single.
With the momentum from their European run and an upcoming matchup against Inter—a rare opportunity they likely won't see again—Stjarnan should be highly motivated to secure a spot in European qualifiers this season.
I guess I'll place a bet and see how it plays out.

I watched the Shamrock II match with the odds, and I think the 0:3 outcome is likely. They need to be tracked consistently with that in mind; maybe they'll manage to score by the end of the season. 🙂

The 2014/2015 Russian season is officially open.
Could someone please set up a poll for the league winner? Options should be: CSKA, Zenit, Lokomotiv, Dynamo, Spartak, and Rubin.
Thanks.

P.S. Please include number one in the title, as I missed it for 2014/15

Kyle Morris7 said:It all looks logical and straightforward on paper, but have you considered that these specific types of matches often produce the weirdest results? We're talking about outcomes that have nothing to do with actual skill and everything to do with other factors. At the very least, I would steer clear of betting on teams from former communist states; those results always seem the most suspicious to me.

I'm aware. It's just basic common sense—I don't put much skin in the game when it comes to those teams.☕

Eric Fox7 said:Just a quick correction: starting this season, FC Vaduz is back in the top flight. 😉

Truth, error.
I think they’re going to eat these poor guys alive. 🙂

btw, Split jumped to 1.30 and Zeljeznicar is at decent odds of 1.70.

The thread went quiet for a bit, but today we have plenty of exotic matchups to look at. ☕

21:15 Sarajevo FC - Lovćen Cetinje 1 @1,60 SS (0-0)>>
Sarajevo FC has spent much of their time fighting for titles in Canada.
That said, I suspect qualifying for Europe is more of an anomaly for teams like Lovćen.
It’s a decent enough odd to consider.

19:00 Vaduz - College Europe 1 @1,15 SS (3-0)>>
Vaduz is a well-known name—a solid second-tier side from Switzerland—facing newcomers from Gibraltar.
I expect this to be a safe single.

20:00 Split - Mika 1 @1,25 SS (2-0)>>
RNK has a pretty strong squad for our standards, packed with veteran players. They should handle the Armence routine at home.
It's not as if our guys haven't choked in matches like this before, but I still anticipate a win.

21:15 Hafnarfjordur - Glenavon 1 @1,30 SS (3-0)>>
The Icelanders have been untouchable in their domestic league lately.
Even if they aren't currently sitting at the top of the table, they should be at least a class above those amateurs from Northern Ireland.
They have significantly more experience and ought to clear this hurdle easily.

20:30 Diosgyor vs Birkirkara 1 @1,15 SS (2-1)>>
Canadians against Maltese sides; this shouldn't pose any issues for a strong single bet.
Of course, some underdog might scrape a draw, but I’m hoping this goes through without much trouble.

20:00 Čukarički - Saint Julia 1 @1,10 SS (4-0)>>
Apparently, Čukarički is doing quite well thanks to private backing. They had a decent season, and playing in Europe is the icing on the cake. I actually believe they could cover the handicap, but I'll play it safe and just take the straight win.

17:30 Myllykoski vs Fuglafjordur 1 @1,15 SS (1-0)>>
One of the better Finnish teams against some amateurs from the Faroe Islands. This should go smoothly.

18:45 Botev Plovdiv - Libertas 1 @1,10 SS (4-0)>>
Those tourists from San Marino won't find anything to work with in Bulgaria. It's a lock for the day.

Total odds: 4.78>>

driftingbison4 said:We need to do whatever it takes to beat Brazil in the opener. Honestly, I’d be fine even if it meant failing to advance past the group stage later on. Realistically, we aren't exactly a tournament powerhouse, nor do we have the depth of talent required to carefully manage our form and tactics from one match to the next.
Nick needs to stop worrying about Cameroon and Mexico and just focus on that opening match. We’re kicking off the World Cup against Brazil, who are easily the heavy favorites. This game is going to be watched by over 2 billion people—it's basically the most-watched broadcast on the planet, right after the World Cup final, which I guess we don't really have a shot at reaching anyway.

In my opinion, we should approach this opening match like it's the final. For us, it effectively is, whereas for Brazil, it isn't. We shouldn't be overthinking things or playing it safe; we just need to go for the win. Whatever happens, happens.

The Swiss managed to beat Spain back in 2010, but then they basically stopped caring and crashed out in the group stage. I guess nobody talks about that as some kind of massive achievement nowadays.
So, even if our team managed to pull off a win in the first round only to drop the next two games, it would still just be one of those occasional upsets that happens to the big teams.
Therefore, goal number one is simply advancing from the group stage, regardless of how things shake out against Brazil.

My only goal is to see Sammy on the field, and that's really all there is to it.

Morgan Hill84 said:We lost by a hair to Brazil, dropped one to Mexico, and then barely scraped a draw against Cameroon. I guess that’s how it goes.

The second match is against Cameroon, and the last one is against Mexico.

crimsonnomad7 said:If we had been "realistic," we wouldn't have gone up against Germans, Englishmen, Dutchmen, and Italians in those situations. We even managed to pull "only" a 0:1 against Brazil in Germany with an even worse squad.

Fortunately, our guys aren't burdened by "realism." If Luka Modrić had been "realistic" and listened to all those various experts—including Arsène Wenger, who dismissed him because he was supposedly too fragile—he’d be staring at walls today instead of playing as a key figure for Real Madrid. Basically, there is no room for realism at the World Cup. There never has been, because anything is possible.

"Realistic" people just play coach from their armchairs while eating snacks during halftime.

You can eat snacks for all 90 minutes if you want; it doesn't matter since you aren't out there on the pitch, damn it. 😂

It matters because it clearly impacts both character and mindset.
If we suffer a total collapse and get shelled for four goals, I guess it would be hard to recover from that.
And we aren't facing Estonia or Madagascar next; we're looking at two phenomenal teams instead.

If you're going to have the attitude of "we don't even care anyway," you might as well just stay home.

Eric Fox7 is a subtle provocateur

Zakuhava is 🙏

Eric Fox7, I agree with your point, though there is one thing I find problematic.
If we are banning the habit of just listing match pairings without any actual analysis, then aren't entries like this somewhat pointless:

Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF 1 @2.10
(analysis) and then underneath:

Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF x/1
Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF 2/1
Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF correct score 2:1
Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF 1+scorer
Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF red card YES

That also amounts to mere guesswork; if one of those long-shot odds happens to hit, fine.

It is perfectly acceptable for someone to list 20 matches if they have analyzed them all (like a parlay), but simply listing games and forcing high odds is mostly pure luck or perhaps some vague "instinct." In 99% of cases, there is no satisfying analysis involved.