Boom Analysis Game - January 2022

January 14th. Esport - League of Legends - LEC

A bit of a different approach this time. Tomorrow (Friday, Jan 14th), the new League of Legends season kicks off, and this bet falls under the esports category. In the European league, known as the LEC, Vitality will face off against the defending champions, MAD Lions. Vitality is one of the wealthiest organizations in the league, which explains why they've brought in Perkz—one of the best players in the world—alongside Carzy, who just secured two consecutive titles with MAD Lions, and the reliable Alphari. Then there's Labrov, who spent a long time ranked as the top player in Europe. My prediction? A Vitality victory. While MAD Lions holds the last two LEC titles, they’ve lost two of their heavy hitters: humanoid and, of course, Carrzy. I expected much lower odds for this matchup, so I felt compelled to take this play for the date mentioned above.

Vitality - MAD Lions
1
Odds: 1.60
Betting Shop: FanDuel

15.1 sub 16:00 Newcastle United/vs-Watford yes

We were already talking about Watford last month—specifically that Dennis-King duo, which is basically the budget version of Salah and Jota. Everyone expects them to just hover around mid-table, which is why they brought in Ranieri to spice up the attack; that move actually paid off with that massive 4-1 win over Manchester United. Since then, even in their losses, they’ve been finding the net against tough sides like Chelsea, twice against Leicester, even City, and most recently Brentford. They finally tried playing a defensive game against Tottenham, and honestly, it looked solid right up until that 90+6 minute heartbreak when Spurs snatched it at the death. Again, that Dennis and King duo is like the "budget Salah and Jota," though there’s more talk lately that Dennis might actually be good enough for a top-tier club—he was back in training yesterday after recovering from his injury and narrowly avoiding the AFCON drama, so expect him in the starting XI. Watford’s next three matches are against Newcastle, Burnley, and Norwich—three games that will basically define their entire season. These are bottom-half teams they absolutely have to go out and attack to grab three points. I’d honestly rather see one win and two losses than three boring draws, and with this current attacking setup, they have a real shot at picking up more than one win since they won't need to park the bus like they did against Tottenham—which, let's face it, they'll probably go back to doing very soon. On the other side, Newcastle is going on a massive spending spree, especially in the backline, but so far only Trippier has signed—and he's hardly a defensive specialist; he’s more about those pinpoint crosses, corners, and set pieces. Newcastle's logic makes sense because their defense has been an absolute disaster lately, whereas their attack is stacked with options—plus, they just snagged Burnley's best striker, Wood.

1.65 @ Betting Shop

January 15, 2022 20:30

USA - Mexico - 2 @ 2.90 (BetMGM)

It’s a make-or-break kind of night for Team USA. These two squads are coming into tonight feeling worlds apart. Mexico is riding high on a wave of euphoria after an incredible opening performance against Ukraine, while the Americans are looking to shake off a tough loss to France. If the US wants any hope of advancing to the next round, they absolutely have to pull this one off tonight. Honestly, I see this as a total toss-up—a true 50:50 split where nobody stands out as a clear favorite. On the bright side, Luka Cindrić is back in the lineup, and we've had Musa and Ravnić called up as well due to some recent COVID cases within the US squad. Given everything going on right now—the current state of the roster, various player injuries, the COVID situation, and the coach's decision to leave some heavy hitters off the list—I have to give a slight edge to Mexico. In my opinion, getting Mexico at 2.90 is serious Value.

Joseph Newman31 said:January 15, 2022 20:30

USA - Mexico - 2 @ 2.90 (BetMGM)

Is tonight a make-or-break moment for the Americans? Both teams enter this matchup with completely different momentum. Mexico is riding high after a dominant opening performance against Ukraine. Meanwhile, the USA is staring down a must-win situation following their loss to France if they want any hope of advancing to the next round. Personally, I see this as a true toss-up; there isn't a clear favorite here. While Luka Cindrić returns to the lineup, the roster has been shaken up by recent COVID-19 cases, leading to the call-ups of Musa and Ravnić. Given the current instability within the American squad—dealing with injuries, illness, and questionable roster selections—I’m giving a slight edge to Mexico. At 2.90, the odds on a Mexican victory represent real Value.

I would play the exact same matchup as my colleague, though my pick would be the opposite. I'm going with an American win. I agree that 2.90 is solid value on Mexico, but I believe 1.85 is equally strong value on the USA. Even with everything going on, the individual talent on the American side is simply superior. Despite the absences, the players who faced France proved they belong, and we still need to see more from the likes of lamb and Martinović. The main headache will be the left wing, as both Mihić and Mandić are out, and Horvat opted for Ravnić over Štrlek again. However, having Cindrić back provides much-needed depth to the perimeter.

In that first game, Kukić was the standout for Mexico with 7 goals. But don't mistake my assessment of Ukraine as an understatement; they were genuinely struggling, which explains why major books like Bet365 had them ranked among the bottom four teams with longshot championship odds of 2501. Mexico certainly took advantage of that, and one has to wonder if that early euphoria might lead to complacency today.

USA - Mexico
1
Odds: 1.85
Bookmaker: BetMGM

This is just too much. We've got serious 🤣 value on the Americans at 2.90, but then there's our own squad sitting at 1.85 🤣 🙏

driftingotter47 said:This is too good. We have Value on the Americans at 2.90, but even on our guys at 1.85 🤣 🤣 I haven't heard this one yet 🙏

If the odds for an America vs. Mexico handball match are 1.85 for America, I am placing that bet 999,999 out of 1,000,000 times.🤣

frozenhound9 said:if it's 1.85 on the US to beat Mexico in handball, I'm taking 🤣
999,999 times out of a million.

Look, that's your call, but you actually wrote a sentence claiming you see Value in both outcomes, which is mathematically impossible. 🤣🤣

It’s not even about whether the math checks out or if it's physically impossible... it's more about why we aren't seeing any picks on the over/under players from the EP? 😁

Kyle Torres60 said:It’s not even about whether the math checks out or if it's technically impossible—that's not the issue here. My real question is, why on earth aren't there any picks for under/over player props from the EP? 😁

Look, I do this professionally, and I can't just go around dropping tips for everyone to see publicly like that. If I start giving away my plays for free, I’m basically sabotaging my own edge and hurting my own bottom line. 🙂

It’s all just numbers on a screen at this point.☕

Just like sports betting, this has turned into a cold, hard business. The raw emotion and the days of just sharing picks are long gone.

Because of that, this whole competition feels pretty pointless, but whatever—we'll grind through the rest of the month.☕

Ethan Jones5 17 As if I care what they say!
Everything is just one big mess—gross and net, it’s all the same headache.☕

It’s exactly like sports betting—it’s turned into this cold, calculated business. There isn't any heart left in it anymore, no more passion, and definitely none of that old-school vibe where people actually shared their picks just for the hell of it.

To be honest, this whole competition feels pretty pointless right now, but whatever—we’ll just grit our teeth and power through until the end of the month.☕

I honestly don't think anyone else on this entire forum is doing this at a professional level, but clearly, people just aren't willing to put in the work. We’ve already gone over all of this in our private chats anyway. 🤷

driftingotter47 said:I don't think anyone else on this forum is actually doing this professionally, but clearly, people just aren't willing to put in the work. We've already talked about this privately anyway. 🤷

I already told you everything in our DMs. It’s simple: people are just chasing profit. You’ve got the pros doing it professionally, while amateurs like me just hunt for bonuses and long shots before we all get wiped out.

A competition that doesn't deliver at least ten solid analyses a month is pointless. It just lacks the passion it used to have. I guess I’m getting old—I sound like one of those retirees constantly rambling about the "good old days." It might be time to hang it up and retire.☕

Ethan Jones5 said:I already laid it all out for you in our private messages. It’s quite simple: people are just chasing profit. The experts pursue it with professional precision, while amateurs—myself included—tend to chase after bonuses and "sure things" right before they vanish from the board entirely.

A competition loses its entire purpose if it doesn't feature at least ten rock-solid analyses every month. That old spark, that genuine emotion we used to feel, is just gone. I suppose I've grown old; I sound like one of those retirees reminiscing about their glory days. Perhaps it truly is time for me to retire.☕

I've been lurking on this forum for a long time now, and I've noticed you've announced your retirement more often than you've actually hit a winning ticket at the betting shop.

The US is facing Ukraine today in a match that will likely secure their spot in the second round. While the media keeps preaching caution and warns against underestimating the opponent, the reality is that the US should dominate this one. Ukraine lost by 8 points to Mexico and 13 to France; they were labeled as massive underdogs before the tournament even started, and their performance so far has proven that label right.

It’s been tough keeping track of the injury report for the US, but from what I can gather, Jakob Gojun is returning. Even better news is that Mandić has finished his one-game suspension. Having him back is huge, especially since we didn't manage to score a single goal from the left wing against Mexico. A victory by 5 goals or more feels like a very realistic outcome; honestly, anything less would be surprising and a bit disappointing.

Ukraine - USA (-4.5)
2
Odds: 1.30
Betting shop: DraftKings

Gerald Carter53 said:I've been on this forum long enough to notice you've announced your retirement more times than you've actually hit a winning slip at the betting shop.

Look, I give up on life about 100 times a day—that's just how I'm built.😁

As far as betting goes, I've been retired for two years now; I might throw down a few bucks here and there, but that's it.

But now, the retirement is coming from the tournament organization side too.☕

Wednesday, January 19, 2022, 01:00

Granollers/Zeballos vs. Nishioka/Vesely 1

The opening round of doubles at the Australian Open is finally here. Honestly, anything short of a convincing win for the Spanish-Argentine duo would feel like a complete fluke. We’re looking at the world No. 6 and No. 7 ranked pair, guys who have already clocked 89 matches together. They aren't picky about the surface either; they play just as well on clay as they do on hard courts. If you look at their resume, it’s impressive—they’ve hit the Wimbledon final, took home the title in Cincinnati, reached the US Open quarterfinals, won the Madrid Masters, and even made it to the Masters Cup semifinals. That kind of history speaks volumes about how dialed-in they are. On the flip side, Nishioka and Vesely? They’ve never even teamed up before. Neither of them is a specialist in doubles, and since they both sit outside the top 300, the writing is pretty much on the wall. To make matters worse, their individual form is non-existent right now. Nishioka got knocked out in the first round by Albot 3:1, and Vesely got absolutely dismantled by Kozlov 3:0. When you weigh up pure talent, chemistry, and current momentum, it’s all leaning heavily toward Granollers and Zeballos. I’m feeling pretty confident this bet lands.

1.31 DraftKings

January 19, 8:30 PM Leicester-Tottenham X2

Tottenham under Conte in the Premier League are sitting at 5-3-0. Honestly, they look better match after match. Even with all this negative noise following those back-to-back losses against Chelsea, I think they’re ready to step up—or at the very least, they aren't going to let an underdog walk all over them. They’re the favorites here, and they desperately need to reclaim their standing. On the other side, there was all this drama about whether the game would even happen, but Leicester managed to pull a squad together. They've got guys returning to training from injuries and COVID, which gives them some depth, though—let's be real—they probably wouldn't even be options in a normal situation: Perez, Soumare, Justin, Thomas, Dewsbury-Hall, Soyunac, and Daka. Vardy is out, and a few others are away for the AFCON.

SS 1.45

01.19. 18:45

Tonight, Metz hosts Kastamon in the women's Champions League. Metz leads the French league and performs exceptionally well in Europe, whereas Kastamon comes from Turkey with a rough record of zero wins in eight Champions League matches. With stars like de Paula, Burgaard, Horaček, Mičijević, Kanor, and Flippes, Metz is clearly operating on a much higher level than their opponents. On the other hand, Kastamon brought in a few players from Mexico this season, most notably Mehmedović and Radičević. But regardless of their individual talent, their backcourt is a disaster, which explains those poor results.
These two teams already met earlier this season in Turkey, where Metz cruised to a 30:20 victory. Can we really expect anything different today? I'm leaning towards Metz winning by 8 points or more.

Metz(-7.5) - Kastamon
1
Odds: 1.50
Betting shop: DraftKings

01.20.

Here is a pick for today from the Handball Euro. France is facing the Netherlands, a team that wasn't really expected to make it to the second round. Still, they earned their spot here, and now they face an incredibly tough test against the Olympic champion. France showed exactly what they're capable of against Mexico, even if they did ease off in the second half and let Mexico close the gap to just four goals. Because of that, my prediction focuses solely on the first half. France will come out firing, and with players like Mahe, Mem, Descat, Karabatić, and especially goalkeeper Gerard, they are simply too much for the Netherlands to handle. I watched the matches involving Iceland, Canada, and Portugal—the teams the Netherlands faced in the first round—and my takeaway is that none of those opponents had a defense strong enough to stay competitive. Those games regularly saw around 60 goals, but I suspect that won't be the case against France.

France (-1.5 first half) vs Netherlands
1
Odds: 1.41
Betting shop: DraftKings

Friday, January 21, 2022, 7:00 AM

Mektić/Pavić-Kyrgios/Kokkinakis 1

There’s really no point overthinking this one because the reality of the situation is pretty obvious. Mektić and Pavić are the best duo on the planet right now, and they’re the clear favorites to take home the US Open title. I’m guessing the odds are creeping up because they looked a bit shaky yesterday, but even when they aren't at their peak, they have enough pure talent to grind out a win. It’s also common knowledge that they tend to start tournaments slow, finding their rhythm as the rounds progress. They can play on any surface, though their biggest wins have definitely come on hard courts. Then you’ve got Kyrgios and Kokkinakis. These two actually played their first match together way back in 2013, yet they didn't pull off a win until last year. Honestly, they aren't even close to being a cohesive unit—they’ve only played eight matches together, losing five of them. Anyone who follows tennis knows these two can be a total wildcard mentally; if things start sliding downhill, they tend to spiral, making unforced errors and losing their cool. You just can't win like that, not against average players, let alone the number one team in the world. Their only real edge is playing in front of a home crowd, but I don't think that’ll be enough to tip the scales. Everything points toward the Americans, so I'm expecting them to pull this off and move into the third round of the US Open.

1.55 DraftKings