Boom Analysis Game - January 2022

Verona (PIK)-Bologna FC (Fri 20:45) 1

Since Tudor took over, Verona has been playing this incredibly aggressive, attractive style of football—they’re actually sitting at second in the league for most goals scored! Even in the few games they lost this season, the squad looked significantly better than before. On the other hand, you've got Bologna stuck in the bottom half of the table and struggling hard right now—likely a perfect storm of suspensions, injuries, COVID hits, and international duty. They’re missing some massive pieces: Musa Barrow (AFCON), Lorenzo de Silvestra (illness), Ibrahim Mbaya (AFCON), Federico Santander (injury), and Adam Soumaoro (suspension from yellows). Verona’s defense is pretty shaky too, especially with Polish international Davidowicz still out, which is their biggest headache. Expect some wild swings in momentum and plenty of goals; there's a huge chance Verona takes the lead in the first half, though they might blow it—if they do, we can always look to secure things in the second half or late in the game. Verona is definitely the favorite here.

1.65 SS

Saturday, February 22, 2022 02:30

Halep-Kovinić AH2 (+8.5)

DraftKings is making a massive mistake here. Every other sportsbook has this handicap sitting around the 1.20-1.30 range. There is absolutely no way it should be 1.50. Look, I’m not saying Halep isn't a top-tier player—she clearly is—but let's be real, she's nowhere near the level she was when she held that number one spot. If you look at her last ten matches, she’s only covered this spread twice, and those were against Haddad and Rusa, who aren't even in the same league as her opponent today. The Mexican kid is playing out of her mind lately. She took down Jang in the first round, and then pulled off that absolute shocker against Raducan in the second—and Raducan is arguably the biggest talent in the game right now, a future number one for sure. In that match, the underdog odds on the Danak were 6, and she crushed them. These two have only faced off once before, about six years ago back in Romania, where the Danak spread hit easily. I'm expecting a tight contest. While the Romanian woman might be slightly closer to a win, I don't see anyone getting absolutely steamrolled. After that stellar performance against Raducan, Kovinić looks incredibly confident and capable of putting up a hell of a fight. Personally, I wouldn't touch a margin higher than 4.5 games. Just grabbing four games—something like a 6:2, 6:2 scoreline—is a very realistic outcome. If she plays even half as well as she did against Raducan, she’ll walk away with at least a set, and honestly, an outright win wouldn't surprise me. I know, I know, it's women's tennis, but you don't pass up odds like this. I've put a significant chunk of change on this because, in my mind, it's a 99% lock. Still, if you follow the action, maybe throw a little something on it if you feel inclined, because we all know nothing in this world is a sure thing.

1.50 DraftKings

Leeds United vs. Newcastle United (sub 16:00) Yes

Leeds finally got some key players back from injury, and honestly, you can see the difference immediately—their form is up and they’re looking much sharper on the pitch. That said, their defense is still a total mess due to missing personnel, and Bielsa’s high-octane philosophy basically invites chaos; they just play for goals and leave the back door wide open. As for Newcastle, we’ve lost count of how many times we’ve pointed out that their defense is a disaster waiting to happen, even if their attack is stacked. They brought in Wood—who was absolutely tearing it up for Burnley—but they also grabbed Trippier from Atletico Madrid. He’s an England international, sure, but let’s be real: he isn't exactly a defensive specialist. He’s there for those pinpoint crosses, free kicks, and corners. Since Leeds is playing at home, this is almost certainly going to be a high-scoring shootout.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.55

January 22nd

We all know the struggles facing the US right now, so expecting a miracle against Denmark today would be pure fantasy. Denmark is coming in with a perfect record and hasn't been hit hard by COVID. Their only infected player is Lindbergh, who isn't exactly a cornerstone of their roster anyway. The US desperately needs this win, but after seeing what those Mexicans did to our defense from 9 or even 10 meters out, I just don't see our keepers—statistically the worst in the tournament—stopping Denmark's elite shooters. Last year, Denmark crushed the US by 12 goals using mostly their bench; frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar blowout tonight. Given how fast and efficient their style of play is, I’m putting my money on Denmark scoring over 29.5 goals.

Denmark vs. USA
Denmark over 29.5 goals
Odds: 1.30
Betting shop: DraftKings

January 23

Tonight, Phoenix hosts Indiana at home, but the Pacers are dealing with some massive absences. They can't rely on Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner tonight, and with Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert also questionable, Indiana might be severely shorthanded. On the flip side, Phoenix will be without Deandre Ayton, though I think JaVale McGee provides plenty of value on both ends of the floor. With Ayton out, expect more offensive heavy lifting from Devin Booker. He’s been absolutely scorching lately, dropping 35, 30, 48, and 28 points over his last four games—and he actually scored 35 against Indiana in that stretch even with Ayton on the floor. The line for him is set at 26.5 points; is that too high? I don't think so. I believe he clears it.

Phoenix vs. Indiana
Devin Booker over 26.5 points
Odds: 1.85
Betting shop: DraftKings

frozenhound9 said:January 23rd

Tonight, Phoenix hosts Indiana at home. The Pacers are facing some major setbacks, as they likely won't have both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner on the floor. With Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert also questionable, Indiana might be significantly shorthanded. On the flip side, while Deandre Ayton is out for Phoenix, I think JaVale McGee provides enough quality as a replacement for both defense and offense. Offensively, I expect Devin Booker to take over more of the load without Ayton there. Booker has been in incredible shooting form over his last four games, dropping 35, 30, 48, and 28 points. In that 35-point performance, he was actually playing against Indiana. Even with Ayton in the lineup during that game, Booker still managed to take 25 shots. His line is set at 26.5 points tonight; that’s a high bar, but I believe he can clear it.

Phoenix vs. Indiana
Booker over 26.5 points
odds: 1.85
betting shop: DraftKings

I blink, I look away, and then I see Booker's field goal is 3/16.🥱

Arsenal-Burnley (Sun 15:00) 1

Just throwing a tip out there to get things moving. Arsenal is looking absolutely solid right now. On the flip side, Burnley is sitting at the very bottom of the table—and to make matters worse, they already offloaded their top scorer, Wood, to Newcastle. That leaves them relying on Vydra and Rodrigue upfront, who have managed a measly one goal between them all season. I’m expecting a physical match, but Arsenal has proven to be incredibly consistent when facing bottom-tier sides this year. Their midfield looks fantastic—so much creativity in there—and if everyone stays healthy, we’ve got a legitimate arsenal of weapons in the center with Smith Rowe, Saka, Martinelli, and Odegaard. Sure, we're missing Xhaka and Partey due to suspensions, but those two are defensive destroyers who aren't nearly as vital against weaker teams as they are when you're going toe-to-toe with City or similar giants. Arsenal's winning streak was snapped by Manchester City in what was actually an incredible game where Arsenal held the reins—until a red card and a 90+3 minute goal killed it. Still, it showed that Arteta is doing a stellar job; they are clearly evolving from just dominating small teams to being able to go toe-to-toe with the big boys. As for Burnley, besides losing Wood, they're also missing Cornet—their second best player and a regular for his national team—plus their starting center-back Taylor is out sick. An Arsenal victory should be a foregone conclusion. Burnley will probably try to park the bus and play purely destructive football to hunt for a 0-0, but Arsenal has too much creative depth and dominance over smaller clubs for that to work. I find it extremely hard to see anything else happening, even if Burnley manages to sneak a fluke goal early and then sits deep. In my book, they are the number one candidate for relegation.

SS 1.30

January 23

Tonight, Marin Čilić takes on world No. 9, Felix Auger Aliassime (or just Auger 😁). After his impressive performance against the favorite, Rublev, Čilić faces another top 10 player, though he certainly isn't facing an unbeatable opponent. Auger dropped two sets against Ruusuvuorij and one against Davidovich Fokina, so I really don't see anyone walking away with a clean 3-0 sweep here. In fact, with both players serving quite reliably, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect at least one tie-break? That’s why the line at DraftKings is set at just 32.5 total games. Almost any outcome that isn't a straight-sets victory should make this bet hit. It would honestly surprise me if we saw fewer than 32.5 games. There are even a few scenarios where someone wins 3-0 and the bet still clears.

Marin Čilić vs. Felix Auger Aliassime
Over 32.5 games
Odds: 1.30
Betting shop: DraftKings

January 26. European Championship Handball

Today, Mexico takes on Iceland in their group's third-place playoff. While this might look like a minor matchup on paper, there is actually a lot riding on it. The two third-place finishers from their respective groups will play for fifth place, and the winner earns a direct ticket to the World Cup. Because of those stakes, I don't expect a relaxed game; instead, we should see a gritty battle. Both Mexico and Iceland boast incredible goalkeepers, so it would honestly surprise me if this game saw more than 58.5 goals. I suspect neither side will rush their possessions, and with the defense playing at such a high level, scoring will be controlled. Should we expect a defensive showdown?

Mexico vs Iceland
Under 58.5 goals
Odds: 1.35
Bookmaker: PSK

January 26, 2022 7:00 PM

Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee D1+

Looking at this American third-division matchup between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, my money is on the home side finding the back of the net at least once. On paper, if you just glance at the standings, it looks like there's a massive talent gap, but that’s a bit of a trap. Pittsburgh had a rough start to the season, but things started turning around after they made a coaching change. Hagen Schmidt has really tightened up the squad, and they’re looking decent now. To put it simply: Pittsburgh has scored in nine of their last ten matches. They’ve also got the league's top scorer, Ademi, who’s already signaled that the team is hungry for a win today. On the flip side, Milwaukee is dealing with some setbacks—Alexander Bittroff and Florian Kath are both sidelined with injuries, specifically COVID. To make matters worse for the visitors, away fans aren't even allowed in, meaning the home crowd is going to be absolutely deafening. There's also a deeper emotional layer here; today marks the fifth anniversary of the passing of Pittsburgh legend Michael Tönnies, and the players have made it clear they're playing for him. The odds on the home team are dropping fast. I think Pittsburgh has a real shot at pulling off an upset, but I'm almost certain they'll get at least one goal on the board.

1.40 FanDuel

January 27th.

Today, we have a matchup in the Danish women's handball league between Odense and Aarhus. Odense has assembled an incredible roster this season, largely fueled by talent from Denmark and the Netherlands. They've brought in nearly all the heavy hitters from the Netherlands, including Abbingh, Housheer, Nusser, van Wetering, and Vollebregt. The team chemistry seems exceptional—I actually heard it directly from one of the players. You saw proof of their strength this past weekend when Gyor, the heavy favorite for the Champions League title, barely scraped by with a 27:26 win against them. Is there any doubt about the gap in quality here? I'm expecting a decisive victory for Odense. Looking at the standings, Odense sits comfortably at the top with 15 wins and just one loss, while Aarhus is sitting third from the bottom with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 10 losses.

Odense (-5.5) vs Aarhus
1
Odds: 1.45
Bookmaker: PSK

frozenhound9 said:January 27th

Today in the Danish women's handball league, we've got Odense taking on Aarhus. Honestly, Odense has put together an absolute powerhouse this season, pulling in talent from all over, mostly from Denmark and the Netherlands. They’ve basically vacuumed up the best talent from the Netherlands, bringing in players like Abbingh, Housheer, Nusser, van Wetering, and Vollebregt. From what I can gather—and one of those players actually confirmed it to me personally—the chemistry in that locker room is incredible. You saw a glimpse of that level just this past weekend when Györ, the heavy favorites for the Champions League, barely scraped by with a 27:26 win against Odense at home. There is just a massive gap in quality here, so I’m expecting a dominant performance from Odense. Looking at the standings, Odense is sitting pretty at the top with 15 wins and only one loss, while Aarhus is hanging out in third place... if you're counting from the bottom. They’ve managed 4 wins, 1 draw, and a whopping 10 losses.

Odense (-5.5) vs Aarhus
1
Odds: 1.45
Bookmaker: PSK

I will never understand these kinds of analyses... You didn't mention a single comparable match result within the league to back this up. 🤣

First off, that draw against Györ is actually a negative factor because they likely exhausted themselves there; they definitely won't be playing "like there's no tomorrow" today.

Secondly, looking at how Aarhus performs against top-tier teams, they beat Odense by 9 (which is fine, but you have to account for a brutal schedule), then they were -6 against Esbjerg, -3 and -8 against Herning, and -12 and -4 against Viborg. But look at those last two—the -3 against Herning and -4 against Viborg—that shows much better form than they had at the start of the season. Maybe they had some injuries or absences back then, I don't know, I don't follow closely enough to say for sure, but if you're writing an analysis, you really ought to explain those details. So, the probability of hitting this -5.5 spread is about 4 out of 6, keeping in mind one was against Esbjerg, and you've got a rested Odense facing an Aarhus side that just showed they can stay competitive against big teams with those recent -3 and -4 scores.

Thirdly, Odense's results against similar opponents include Ringkøbing +17, Randers +6, Ajax +8, Skanderborg +16 and +16, and Horsens +5. That looks convincing on paper, but you have to consider that Randers was +6, and Odense might rotate their roster more heavily today. When you factor in that Aarhus has clearly found a way to hang with the giants lately, I just don't see any value in this specific handicap.

At the end of the day, we can argue whether this is a bet worth making or not, but my point is that this is my attempt at an actual betting analysis based on relevant scoring trends, rather than just listing who is on which roster or where they sit in the standings.

January 27, 2022 20:30

Arsenal vs Brighton AH1 (-1.5)

Looking at this matchup in the American women's top flight between Arsenal and Brighton, I’m calling it now: the home side walks away with at least a two-goal cushion. Honestly, the women's league operates pretty much like the men's—you've got this "big five" tier, though Liverpool is currently out there fighting just to stay in the title conversation. Arsenal is sitting pretty at the top, and they actually have a game in hand compared to most of the field. They’ve always been heavyweights; they took the title three seasons ago and hovered around third place the last couple of years. When they play at home, they’re an absolute force—they’ve been perfect so far with a goal differential of 19:2. The only team that managed to cover the spread against them was Chelsea. On the other side, Brighton is languishing in 8th. They're basically the definition of a mid-table team; they don't quite have the depth to challenge the elite, but they aren't bad enough to worry about relegation either. Right now, though, they’re in a total tailspin. They’re effectively bottom of the form guide after a brutal run where they managed only a draw and four losses in their last five outings. Out of their six losses this season, four were by handicap, and their only narrow one-goal defeats came against lower-tier sides like Leicester and Aston Villa. The head-to-head history tells the whole story. They’ve met eight times, and Brighton has only managed to snag a win in the league cup. In all seven other encounters, Arsenal took the spoils—and they covered the spread every single time. Six of those wins were blowouts by three goals or more. Their aggregate goal difference against Brighton is a staggering 26:2. I expect that trend to continue today. Arsenal isn't dealing with any major injury headaches, and since they just dropped points in a draw against Manchester City, they’ll likely come out swinging from the opening whistle. If they do, Brighton is going to have a very long afternoon.

1.30 PSK

driftingotter47 said:Ultimately, we can debate whether this is playable or not, but my point is that this is an analysis based on relevant results, rather than just listing who plays whom or where they sit in the standings.

Look, criticism is fine, but I laid out the specific reasons why I chose that bet. To me, analysis isn't just staring at numbers—anyone can do that by checking a scores website. By that logic, you could place a bet on any matchup in any sport every single day. It shouldn't matter where teams sit in the standings; what matters is how they performed last June against squads that were "similar" to their current opponents (and "similar" based on standings which we already agreed don't drive the analysis😵).

Generally, I think most people aren't familiar with some of these players. Why is it considered bad to represent a team's strength by highlighting who will actually be on the pitch for this match? I missed the handicap in the end, so anyone can claim my reasoning was flawed, but I’m sticking to my guns. At the end of the day, if my style of analysis doesn't meet the house rules of this game, feel free to remove me. That's that. 😁

frozenhound9 said:Look, criticism is fine, but I laid out my specific reasons for picking that type of bet. To me, an analysis isn't just staring blankly at numbers—honestly, anyone can do that if they just open a results page... If we follow that logic, we could place a bet on absolutely any matchup in any sport played today because it wouldn't matter where teams are playing or their standing; what matters is how they performed last June against a squad that was "similar" to their current opponents (and by similar, I mean in the standings, which we already established wasn't relevant to the analysis 😵)

Generally speaking, I think most people don't even know half these players exist, and I don't see why it's considered bad to represent a team's strength by highlighting who is actually stepping onto the field for this match. Look, I missed the handicap in the end, so now anyone can claim my reasoning was flawed, but I’m not backing down from my logic. At the end of the day, if my analysis doesn't meet some arbitrary standard of how things "should" be written in this game, then feel free to kick me out of the group and call it a day 😁

There aren't any formal rules for writing analyses, and nobody is going to ban you, but people *will* tell you that your breakdown provides zero utility, even if the pick itself ends up being a winner. As someone who does this professionally, I'm telling you that you are analyzing this completely wrong; you are focusing your attention on all the wrong variables

Of course matches against similar teams under similar circumstances matter! You look at those specific results to determine the probability of success, which dictates whether there's actual value. Then you compare that probability against the odds offered by the sportsbook to see clearly if there is value or not. In your case today, there was actually value to be found on the basic contra-handicap.

I honestly don't understand how you think you can prove value through anything other than relevant results. What else is there? "Good team atmosphere"? Or some other tired cliché you hear in every single sports interview? And no, this isn't just raw statistics; if you actually followed this team and knew anything about them, you would have known how they behave after a grueling match in the Champions League, which is exactly why they played poorly today (and if you had actually watched the game, you'd realize that right now and admit you messed up your analysis).

You can take the advice or ignore it, I really don't care and I don't gain anything from your picks, but believe me, for your own sake—you are doing everything absolutely wrong 🙂

January 28th

Today marks the first semifinal match of the European Championship, featuring Spain against Denmark. Even while missing several key players, Denmark completely controlled the game against France, only allowing them to snatch a victory in the final minutes. They have maintained an elite level throughout this tournament, and crucially, they are healthy and rested their stars specifically for this semifinal. On the other hand, Spain—the defending champions—have struggled through the second round. After a nail-biting win over Russia where the Russians missed a last-minute penalty, they dropped a game to Norway by four points. They barely escaped with a one-point win against Poland thanks to two clutch saves from Corrales in the closing moments. It’s also worth noting they are playing without Dujshebaev, and you can really feel that void. I suspect the World Cup winners, Denmark, will be too much to handle here. Expect a decisive victory that proves why they are the heavy favorites for gold.

Spain - Denmark (-3.5)
2
Odds: 1.55
Bookmaker: PSK

frozenhound9 said:January 28th

Today we’ve got the first semifinal match of the European Championship in handball, featuring Spain against Denmark. Even without some of their heavy hitters, the Danes completely dictated the tempo against France, only for the Frenchmen to snatch it at the very last minute. They’ve been playing at an elite level throughout this entire tournament, and most importantly, they aren't dealing with any major injuries since they managed to rest their key players for this semifinal. On the flip side, you have Spain, the defending champions, who actually looked pretty underwhelming during the second round. After barely scraping past Russia in a game where the Russians missed a penalty right at the buzzer, they dropped one to Norway by four. Then, in another massive must-win game, they just barely edged out Poland by a single point thanks to two incredible saves from Corrales in the final minute. It’s also worth noting they’re playing without Dujshebaev, and you can definitely feel that void. Personally, I think the World Cup winners, the Danes, are going to be too much to handle here; I expect a comfortable win that proves why Denmark is the absolute favorite for gold.

Spain - Denmark (-3.5)
2
Odds: 1.55
Bookmaker: PSK

Now, this is a decent analysis, but what about the fact that Denmark struggled against America and a seriously weakened Iceland? Are you really sure Spain is underperforming that much? That Spanish squad beat Sweden by +4 in the group stage, so despite those weird games against the weaker teams, they were actually quite convincing against Sweden.
The Danes are winning, sure, but it’s never lookin' easy. Look at that Iceland game where they were neck-and-neck until the last ten minutes, or how they played against America—both were huge tests in this Euro.
At the Olympics, they had Spain +4, Norway +3, losses to Sweden and France, and Egypt +5.
At the World Cup, it was Egypt X, Spain +2, and Sweden +2.

Basically, at these odds of 1.55, you're looking at only a 30% success rate (3 out of 10, and those wins were +4, +4, and +5—so there wasn't even any cushion) in Denmark's big matchups over the last year. Yet, those odds imply a 65% chance of hitting. So, it's not just that there's no value here; it's actually "contra-value."🤷

We could sit here and argue that this Spanish team is below the level of the top-tier squads I just listed, but honestly, I don't see the point in debating it if you haven't studied the tape enough to prove me wrong (and frankly, even I'm not 100% certain, given how convincing they were against Sweden in the group stage—we need to be careful with them).

Friday, January 28, 2022, 7:00 PM

Nimes vs Valenciennes — looking at the 1X option here.

Looking at this Week 21 matchup in the French second division between Nimes and Valenciennes, my gut tells me the home side isn't walking away empty-handed. It’s one of those classic situations where you look at the history and the current chaos and realize the smart money is on the underdog staying afloat. Nimes used to be a mainstay in the top flight, but now they're just hovering around mid-table in the second tier. They’re sitting about 10 points adrift from that playoff zone, which sounds discouraging, but there are still 18 games left on the schedule—plenty of runway to make things interesting if they catch a spark. And honestly, they’ve found that spark recently. They’ve picked up four wins in their last six outings, and the only times they stumbled were against Rodez and the league leaders, Toulouse. You can take those losses as a bit of a wash given who they were playing. The real kicker here, though, is the absolute disaster unfolding in the Valenciennes camp. Their roster is looking incredibly thin right now. They're missing Yatabare, Debuchy, Abeid, Ayite, Ouattar, and Rahou. When you lose that much depth, you aren't just playing shorthanded; you're playing wounded. To add more fuel to the fire, Nimes recently brought in Usai to take over on the sidelines. We all know how that goes—it’s like a shot of espresso for a tired squad. A new manager usually brings a sudden burst of motivation because everyone wants to prove they belong in the new era. If you dig into the Head to Head stats, it gets even more lopsided. Nimes hasn't actually lost to Valenciennes since back in 2004. In fact, they’ve swept the last six meetings. Given the current momentum, the injury crisis on the road, and that "new coach bump," I’m expecting the streak to hold. At the very least, Nimes should avoid a loss today.

1.30 Germany