Grand Prix of Mexico City (Indianapolis Motor Speedway) | November 5-7, 2021

Any music suggestions to listen to while reading this intro?



Hello everyone. Welcome to the opening thread for the very first Grand Prix of Mexico City. Why am I saying "first"? Well, for some strange reason, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway has hosted the Grand Prix of Mexico City per the contract until now, but the new agreement dictates that both this race and the next one in New York City will carry the city's name in the title of the Grand Prix.



Anyway, enough about the oddities. This season has been giving us unprecedented battles—probably the best since the turbo hybrid era kicked off back in 2014. For anyone who isn't pulling for Mercedes, that era has felt like an eternity. We still have Mexico City and New York City left on the classic calendar. After those, we head into the unknown: Miami, Las Vegas, and a radically redesigned Miami.

There’s only a week of downtime between Mexico City and New York City. In the USA, we'll be watching the season's penultimate sprint race this year, followed just a week later by NASCAR in the USA. There will be a two-week break before the first-ever Grand Prix in Saudi Arabia, and then, just a week after that, the finale in Miami.



Mentioning Mexico City and New York City brings to mind those high-altitude tracks that really punish the turbochargers. It'll be interesting to see how things develop for Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. They share the record for two wins at this track with legends like Jim Clark, Nigel Mansell, and Alain Prost. On the constructors' side, Mercedes holds the record with three wins, alongside McLaren, Williams, and Lotus. Red Bull Racing has two. Unrelated, Honda holds the record with four, while Ford and Mercedes have three each.







Action Zones

Turns 1-3

2014 - Lewis Hamilton cuts the chicane in Lap 1.

Turns 4 and 5

2015 - Valtteri Bottas vs Kimi Raikkonen.

Turn 7

2015 - Sebastian Vettel crashes.

Goodyear is bringing the usual mix of unspecified compounds for this one. We can expect the same from the drivers through the end of the season, though we'll likely see the softest compound used during the Miami race.



After a rough qualifying session, Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing came out on top. Sergio Perez securing third really helped close the gap, leaving the Red Bull Racing team just 23 points behind the championship-leading Mercedes. There have been some concerns regarding the internal combustion issues within the Mercedes Power Unit, which might lead them to run prototype tests on Valtteri Bottas's car—basically trying to find a fix for the problems Mercedes is facing. It’s pretty obvious they won't risk doing that with Lewis Hamilton, since he's leading the championship, but eventually, Lewis Hamilton will probably have to switch to a fourth PU. Racing at high altitudes is definitely going to impact that third PU Lewis Hamilton is using right now.

Regarding Hamilton, he’s sitting 12 points behind Verstappen. A potential retirement here could honestly decide who takes the 2021 title. I don't want to play fortune teller without a crystal ball, so we'll just have to wait until race weekend rolls around.



McLaren and Ferrari are locked in a battle for third and fourth. Right now, Ferrari is trailing by just 3.5 points, which is basically nothing. Just like before, Daniel Ricciardo's current form is going to be the deciding factor in this fight for third place. As for the guys in red, Sainz is doing a great job despite some struggles. He's holding steady at 5.5 points behind Leclerc, and they're working well together.

Alpine suffered their first double DNF in the US, which breaks that streak of scoring points they started back at the Grand Prix of Emilia-Romagna. Fernando Alonso showed his true colors in the US while battling both Alfas, and from what I can tell, he’s going to give everything he's got to beat AlphaTauri. Pierre Gasly unfortunately dropped out in the last race, and Yuki Tsunoda helped AlphaTauri get a bit closer to Alpine. Honestly, it feels like they're just fighting for scraps; in normal circumstances, Aston Martin can only pick up tiny amounts of points, which isn't nearly enough to catch even AlphaTauri. The only silver lining is that Williams is 39 points behind them. But then again, we all know how that big plan starting with Racing Point is paying off. Even if people see the situation negatively, I think it's actually pretty cool because the Mercedes W10 replica turned out so well, and the evolution just makes it easier for them to transition into the 2022 overhaul. Sebastian Vettel knows this, and I'm sure he's doing everything possible to prep for next year. Haas can only hope for a massive pile-up ahead to snag their first points of the season.



Temperatures look pleasant for the weekend. I'm basing this on Sunday's forecast, which is usually hit-or-miss, but it doesn't look like any rain is coming. That should give the drivers ideal conditions to dial things in. Thanks for reading, everyone. We've got a real spectacle coming up over the next two races in South America.

Edit: I messed up the date in the title; it should be November 5th–7th, 2021. Sorry for such a silly mistake.

This race is going to be a fascinating battle for the constructors' standings, especially looking at the fight between Mercedes-Red Bull, Ferrari-McLaren, and Alpine-Aston Martin.

I'm calling it now: I expect a 1-2 finish for Mercedes during qualifying.

Raymond Anderson4 As specified by:
Could one even begin to fathom how much tension is currently building within the constructors' championship standings, given that we are seeing such a fierce struggle between the likes of Mercedes-Red Bull, Ferrari-McLaren, and even the Alpine-Aston Martin outfits? It really makes you wonder, doesn't it? When you look at the sheer volatility of the points gap, one has to ask if any of these teams can truly maintain their current momentum, or if the pressure of these high-stakes battles will eventually cause someone to falter just when it matters most.

I find myself sitting here, contemplating the future and attempting to peer through the fog of what is yet to come, wondering if my own intuition might hold some weight. I am making a prediction. It appears that Mercedes managed to secure both the first and second positions during qualifying, which leads one to wonder if we are truly witnessing a shift in the competitive landscape. Is it possible that their technical direction has finally yielded such decisive results?

Then, one can only assume that the front row is practically guaranteed for Red Bull Racing. 😁

No girls allowed? 👎

No girls allowed 👍

Go Checo!
Red Bull Racing is the clear favorite in that thin Mexico City air—both because of the engine and the chassis. Back in '19, Max Verstappen was half a second ahead of Mercedes on Saturday, but then he got dinged for those yellow flags and ended up having a rough time battling both Mercedes cars.

Just one correction: Lewis Hamilton is already running that fourth Power Unit. If they decide to go with a fifth, Mexico City would be a logical spot—but honestly, given how far behind he is in the standings and the performance issues in these conditions, they might just rethink it.

Let’s just set aside all those "stories" about favoritism for now. We can start lamenting about who the favorites actually were once the Grand Prix weekend is officially over.

Sure, the data is right there, much like in previous seasons at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway—Red Bull Racing thrives in the thin air of Mexico City, Alpine seems to find its rhythm, and I can't recall who else... meanwhile, Mercedes struggles, and Ferrari feels the pinch too...

...but let's take it one step at a time. First we have free practice, then qualifying, and finally the race itself.

Only then will we see who truly holds the cards. It'll be a real showdown to see who comes out on top.🙂

graniteharbor502 said:Then it's a lock—they've practically secured pole position for Red Bull Racing. 😁

Considering the absolute rocket ship they’ve built over at Red Bull Racing, anything other than this outcome would have been nothing short of a miracle.
What on earth would have happened if someone actually competent was behind the wheel of that rocket? I’m talking about a driver like Daniel Ricciardo. Honestly, I’m almost afraid to even think about it—if he had been driving that car, the season would probably be wrapped up and over by now.

wiredseal7 said:Go Checo!
Red Bull Racing is the clear favorite in that thin Mexico City air, thanks to both their engine and the car itself. Back in '19, Max Verstappen was half a second ahead of Mercedes on Saturday, but he got hit with a yellow flag penalty and ended up having a rough time battling both Mercedes cars.

One quick correction: Lewis Hamilton is already running his fourth Power Unit. If he decides to step up to a fifth, Mexico City would be a logical spot to do it, though they might hesitate given the points gap and how performance holds up in these conditions.

Max Verstappen might actually need a new Power Unit before the season wraps up. He’s already put three races on this one, and there are still five left to go. Even if he manages to make it to the finish line—which is doable—this Power Unit will be worn out, leaving him at a disadvantage against Lewis Hamilton's Power Unit.

frozenheron7 said:Given the sheer magnitude of the rocket they’ve constructed over at Red Bull Racing, wouldn't anything less than this outcome be nothing short of a miracle?
And one can't help but wonder, what might have happened if a driver of significant caliber—someone like Daniel Ricciardo, for instance—were actually behind the wheel of that machine? I shudder to even contemplate it, but the season would likely have been decided a long, long time ago.

Nice try. Perhaps attempt a more sophisticated troll next time.🕺

Raymond Anderson4 said:Max might actually grab a fresh Power Unit before the season wraps—he’s already put three races on this one, and there are still five left to go. Even if he makes it through, that engine will be totally worn out, leaving him at a disadvantage against Lewis's Power Unit.

You're forgetting he’s also got that third Power Unit from Saudi Arabia that's seen three full race weekends. Plus, he swapped out all the components in Russia—not just the ICE like Lewis did—and he had that easy run in Turkey where he could really baby the engine.

The first Honda engine managed six races including practice sessions, so these guys should be able to handle it. Unless they start pushing too hard like Mercedes does—then we're looking at a fifth engine or them dialing back the power for the last two rounds if things look comfortable enough.

Mercedes' strategy doesn't really need an explanation. They're playing high-stakes poker with these engines. You can see it with Valtteri, who's been hoarding engines for the final stretch. 🙂

fadedwalker18 said:Let's just ignore all this talk about favorites. Once the Grand Prix weekend is over, then we can start complaining about who was supposed to win.

Sure, the facts are right there, much like in previous seasons in Mexico City—Red Bull loves the thin air, Renault (Alpine) likes it, I don't know who else... but Mercedes and Ferrari? Not so much.

Predicting performance is just pre-race folklore. I'm not going to speculate on what actually happens on track. There's plenty of precedent for the fastest car not winning—look at 2019.

This will probably end up being damage control for Mercedes, while Red Bull Racing has to stay aggressive to close the gap in the constructors' championship.
Even Mercedes admits that, at best, they'll just be fighting alongside Red Bull Racing.
https://readmotorsport.com/2021/11/0...or-mexican-gp/
My bet? Either Red Bull Racing hits those balance issues they saw in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, or Mercedes pulls out some secret weapon—maybe an upgraded turbine compared to '19.

And hey, if someone gets hit with a penalty for a yellow flag, blows a tire, shreds a wing or floor during a duel, has an engine blowout, or gets lucky with a VSC, we can chat about that after the race.

Raymond Anderson4 said:Maybe Max grabs a new Power Unit before the season wraps up—he’s already used this one for 3 races, and there are still 5 left. If he manages to make it work, that Power Unit is gonna be totally worn out, which means he might end up lacking compared to Lewis's engine.

There’s a bit of a catch here, though. This is actually the first season where Mercedes is dealing with real engine struggles—like, they don't have that massive edge from previous years where they could just crank it up a notch and leave everyone else in the dust. It feels like they hit the ceiling of their current engine design this year, so now they’re basically redlining it every single race just to stay in the hunt with Max. And we all know what happens when you run engines at those limits for too long. So, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we see Mercedes having issues before we see any with Red Bull Racing. Even Ferrari has closed the gap a bit with their latest engine version, which just goes to show they don't really have that extra room to just "dial up" the power like they used to.

Mercedes doesn't have that luxury anymore where they can just blast ahead at the start and then cruise on autopilot—which, let's face it, they did a ton in past seasons. Now, they have to push that engine to the absolute limit the whole time just to stay close to Max (I mean, looking at how many laps he's led this year 😁 versus them
).
The big question now is whether Max is also pushing his Honda engine right to the breaking point.

wiredseal7 said:You’re overlooking the fact that they also had a third Power Unit from Saudi Arabia that lasted three full races. Plus, unlike Lewis Hamilton, who only swapped out his ICE, he replaced every single component in Russia. He even had a relatively easy race in Turkey where he could afford to baby the engine.

The first Honda engine managed six full race weekends including practice sessions, so surely these can hold up too. Unless they decide to run them at full tilt like Mercedes does—in which case we might see a power drop-off during the final two races if things get comfortable.

Mercedes' strategy doesn't really need an explanation. They're playing high-stakes poker with their engines. You can see it clearly with Valtteri Bottas, who has been hoarding engines to save them for the season finale. 🙂

I'm not sure if there have ever been instances during a season where teams revert to an older engine for a race. I know they use old units during practice, but as far as I know, that hasn't happened in an actual Grand Prix.

graniteharbor502 said:Nice try. Maybe work on making your jokes actually funny next time. 🕺

You're just mixing trolling with facts.

Fact 1: Ricciardo is, at the very least, a solid driver.
Fact 2: Ricciardo is a better driver than Max Verstappen.

You just have to look at the facts objectively. That’s really all there is to it.

frozenheron7 said:You seem to be blending a bit of trolling with actual facts here.

Fact 1: Ricciardo is, at the very least, a perfectly solid driver.
Fact 2: Ricciardo is actually a better driver than Max Verstappen.

One simply needs to look at the facts with true objectivity, and nothing more.

Perhaps you should write a letter to Red Bull Racing and try to open their eyes.🙄

I’m expecting Red Bull Racing to just steamroll this track—while watching Mercedes slowly die off before the season wraps up. But hey, whatever happens, happens...

Raymond Anderson4 said:I'm not sure if there's ever actually a race where teams switch back to an old Power Unit—I know they run the older specs during practice sessions, but as far as I can tell, that doesn't happen during a real Grand Prix.

NASCAR doesn't bother publishing who's running which specific component—they just give you the current allocation—so tracking down exactly where a certain part was actually used is a massive headache.

If an old engine is good enough for practice, it's good enough for the race—there's nothing in the rulebook that says otherwise.

It looks like there’s no going back once they switch to a new component spec. Take Ferrari, for example—they’re already burning through a fourth engine during practice sessions just because trying to sync up a new battery cell spec with the training engine, only to swap it all back for Saturday, is apparently too much of a headache.

As for the Power Unit, here’s my take 😁



🤣

What’s actually going on behind the scenes with Valtteri Bottas and all these constant engine swaps lately?

Sam Clark75 said:I’m expecting Red Bull to just dominate this track while Mercedes slowly fades away as we head toward the end of the season. But hey, who knows...

I’m right there with you. Mercedes is still showing some signs of life, but let's be honest—it's purely down to Lewis Hamilton's sheer talent at this point. Red Bull is clearly the superior machine. I don't see any realistic way for Mercedes or Lewis Hamilton to snatch the championship this year, unless we witness some sort of unprecedented, total meltdown from Red Bull Racing.