#561 ·
I'm not sure if I answered everything you asked, but maybe I can try to show you with an example; right as I'm typing this, there's an in-play game happening in the US Cup between Vestel Manis and Denizli. The opening odds for Manis were floating around 1.75 to 1.80; once the game kicks off, those odds usually start climbing. It’s just how it works for the home or away team—as long as no one scores, the odds for a win keep rising because there's less time left on the clock for anyone to score, so the probability drops. On the flip side, the odds for a Tie constantly fall, since it's way more likely to end in a draw if it's 0-0 in the 60th minute compared to the 10th. Anyway, by the 16th minute, the odds hit about 2.10. (Keep an eye on the seventh minute—you can see a tiny little spike at 2.00; but honestly, it makes no sense for someone to "buy" at 2.00 if they could have gotten 1.85, so someone probably just messed up, meant to place a back bet but accidentally placed a Lay, and well, someone took them up on it immediately). So, in the 16th minute, Manis takes a 1-0 lead, and the odds obviously crash to about 1.30, staying there for four minutes before Denizli equalizes. And get this—the odds for Manis jumped right back up to exactly where they would have been if those two goals hadn't happened, around 2.15! About ten minutes later, Manis scores again, and the odds settle back near 1.30.
So, let's say you expected Manis to win, waited about ten minutes, and backed them at, I don't know, 1.90 with a $100 stake; you're risking $100 to potentially make $90. Once Manis scores that first goal, you can Lay them at 1.30. For that Lay bet, you'd put down $146.15, meaning your liability is $146.15 * (1.30 – 1) = $43.85. If Manis wins, you pocket that $90 from your initial back bet but lose the $43.85 on the Lay, leaving you with a $46.15 profit. If Manis doesn't win (a Tie or a Denizli win), you collect the $146.15 from the Lay but lose your $100 initial stake, which still leaves you with a $46.15 profit. Now, the Service Fee isn't charged per individual bet, but on the total net profit for the market, so E*TRADE would take 5%, leaving you with a final profit of $43.84 regardless of the result. That’s about a 44% ROI, which is pretty incredible in trading terms. I can see now that Manis is leading 4-1, so they'll definitely win, making that Lay bet look unnecessary, but hey, you could do this at a regular sportsbook too. That's really the whole point of trading—locking in a profit no matter what happens, what people call "greening up." After all, who could've guaranteed Denizli wouldn't have leveled it again after that equalizer!
Just so you know, I calculated that $146.15 Lay amount using math to reach what's called "hedging" or "equalizing profit," which basically means ensuring the exact same profit no matter the outcome. Of course, you can split the profit however you want—like aiming for max profit if Manis wins and just breaking even otherwise. There are tons of calculators online; I usually use http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/popups/slider_pop.htm or just an Excel sheet I built myself.
Obviously, for someone to walk away with that money, someone else had to lose it. Someone thought Manis wouldn't win and took the Lay bet; some did it at 1.75 at the start, some at 2.10 just before the first goal, and some were patient enough to wait for the goal and Lay at 1.30. To make $100, that first person risks $75, the second risks $110, and the third only risks $30. If the first and third person were smart, they'd have immediately backed Manis at 2.15 right after the equalizer to lock in a nice profit (for instance, if you Lay at 1.30 and then Back at 2.15, on a $30 risk, you'd clear $37.55 after fees, which is a 125% ROI!). However, the guy who Lay at 2.10 is in a tough spot—if he does nothing, he loses his full $110 since Manis won. But if he sees things going south, he might Back at 1.30 after the second goal, losing $61.53 instead of the full $110. That's one of the hardest things for traders to swallow, and I've definitely been there too. But if you want to survive on E*TRADE, you have to learn to accept when things go against you and take a partial loss rather than praying that things go your way and that, damn it, Denizli won't equalize again! Unlike that "green" scenario above, this is what we call a "red screen."
So, looking back at the Inter Milan vs. Udinese match; it looks like right when the market opened, someone grabbed odds between 1.58 and 1.65. I guess they were just small bets, but it was clearly a bad call on the Back side, which someone else took advantage of by taking the Lay side. After that, the price jumped to 1.80 and has been slowly drifting down to where it is now, around 1.72.
Now, the person who took that initial Lay at 1.58 really could have just Backed at 1.80 to lock in a guaranteed profit before the game even started—that would’ve been a solid 20% return, maybe? Like, on a $100 risk, you’d grab $20 regardless of what happens. And the person who Backed at 1.80 can now Lay at 1.72 to snag about a 4% profit. But, the other two "opponents"—the one who Backed at 1.58 and the one who Layed at 1.80—well, they're kind of stuck. They just have to sit there and hope the odds move their way. Maybe the first guy hopes Inter Milan wins or scores early so he can find a Lay lower than 1.58, while the second guy is praying Udinese doesn't lose or concede early so the price climbs back above 1.80. If not, they might lose everything or part of it, depending on if they try to hedge. Life on the NYSE is pretty tough, I guess. Not trying to scare you, but you don't want to end up being one of those two!
So, let's say you expected Manis to win, waited about ten minutes, and backed them at, I don't know, 1.90 with a $100 stake; you're risking $100 to potentially make $90. Once Manis scores that first goal, you can Lay them at 1.30. For that Lay bet, you'd put down $146.15, meaning your liability is $146.15 * (1.30 – 1) = $43.85. If Manis wins, you pocket that $90 from your initial back bet but lose the $43.85 on the Lay, leaving you with a $46.15 profit. If Manis doesn't win (a Tie or a Denizli win), you collect the $146.15 from the Lay but lose your $100 initial stake, which still leaves you with a $46.15 profit. Now, the Service Fee isn't charged per individual bet, but on the total net profit for the market, so E*TRADE would take 5%, leaving you with a final profit of $43.84 regardless of the result. That’s about a 44% ROI, which is pretty incredible in trading terms. I can see now that Manis is leading 4-1, so they'll definitely win, making that Lay bet look unnecessary, but hey, you could do this at a regular sportsbook too. That's really the whole point of trading—locking in a profit no matter what happens, what people call "greening up." After all, who could've guaranteed Denizli wouldn't have leveled it again after that equalizer!
Just so you know, I calculated that $146.15 Lay amount using math to reach what's called "hedging" or "equalizing profit," which basically means ensuring the exact same profit no matter the outcome. Of course, you can split the profit however you want—like aiming for max profit if Manis wins and just breaking even otherwise. There are tons of calculators online; I usually use http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/popups/slider_pop.htm or just an Excel sheet I built myself.
Obviously, for someone to walk away with that money, someone else had to lose it. Someone thought Manis wouldn't win and took the Lay bet; some did it at 1.75 at the start, some at 2.10 just before the first goal, and some were patient enough to wait for the goal and Lay at 1.30. To make $100, that first person risks $75, the second risks $110, and the third only risks $30. If the first and third person were smart, they'd have immediately backed Manis at 2.15 right after the equalizer to lock in a nice profit (for instance, if you Lay at 1.30 and then Back at 2.15, on a $30 risk, you'd clear $37.55 after fees, which is a 125% ROI!). However, the guy who Lay at 2.10 is in a tough spot—if he does nothing, he loses his full $110 since Manis won. But if he sees things going south, he might Back at 1.30 after the second goal, losing $61.53 instead of the full $110. That's one of the hardest things for traders to swallow, and I've definitely been there too. But if you want to survive on E*TRADE, you have to learn to accept when things go against you and take a partial loss rather than praying that things go your way and that, damn it, Denizli won't equalize again! Unlike that "green" scenario above, this is what we call a "red screen."
So, looking back at the Inter Milan vs. Udinese match; it looks like right when the market opened, someone grabbed odds between 1.58 and 1.65. I guess they were just small bets, but it was clearly a bad call on the Back side, which someone else took advantage of by taking the Lay side. After that, the price jumped to 1.80 and has been slowly drifting down to where it is now, around 1.72.
Now, the person who took that initial Lay at 1.58 really could have just Backed at 1.80 to lock in a guaranteed profit before the game even started—that would’ve been a solid 20% return, maybe? Like, on a $100 risk, you’d grab $20 regardless of what happens. And the person who Backed at 1.80 can now Lay at 1.72 to snag about a 4% profit. But, the other two "opponents"—the one who Backed at 1.58 and the one who Layed at 1.80—well, they're kind of stuck. They just have to sit there and hope the odds move their way. Maybe the first guy hopes Inter Milan wins or scores early so he can find a Lay lower than 1.58, while the second guy is praying Udinese doesn't lose or concede early so the price climbs back above 1.80. If not, they might lose everything or part of it, depending on if they try to hedge. Life on the NYSE is pretty tough, I guess. Not trying to scare you, but you don't want to end up being one of those two!

and when I select that last option and hit confirm, it just redirects me straight back to my PayPal account dashboard.