David Gomez6 said:👍 You're doing pretty good for someone up at 8 AM tonight, I guess. 😁
I was planning on adding that explanation later tonight, so here it is... And honestly, I think I hit the nail on the head—the director usually shows up around 8 AM, so I guess I just completely lost track of time! 😁
David Gomez6 said:I mean, I think I get how it’s supposed to work in theory, but I've really just been reading up on it.
I guess I didn't quite catch one thing... it's pretty obvious you can't net multiple pairs across different bookies, but is it actually possible to net several odds from the same provider if they're offering more than one? Maybe.
I guess this Lay position only really pays off if it hits a double, maybe. I’d rather just call it a Lay position since we're acting like the broker here—basically setting the odds and deciding the max stake ourselves.
I'm not totally sure I get what people mean by "nesting." Like, is it actually possible to play several parlays at once? I guess you can find that stuff under the "Parlays" section. If you just play it normally by backing everything on the slip, it’s basically just a standard ticket like you'd see at any local sportsbook—you only win if every single pick hits. But, you could also lay your parlay, which means you'd win if even just one of your picks loses. In that case, you're kind of acting like the house, or the broker who took the bet, and if one leg fails, they lose the money and you win. Though, to be honest, I don't really like doing parlays on E*TRADE. I've never actually placed one myself; I mostly just stick to singles, specifically the in-play ones.
David Gomez6 said:I guess this Lay position only really pays off if it hits that x2 mark. Maybe it's better to just think of it as us acting like a broker, where we're the ones setting the odds and deciding the max stake for that price.I guess it all just depends on whether anyone actually wants to bet on our lines. That's really what I'm curious about—how it actually works in practice, I guess.
So, you're saying there's not much action on the smaller leagues? I guess that might mean it'd be pretty easy to move those odds if we actually wanted to offer them at realistic levels. Maybe.
So, you basically set your own price with that bolded text, I guess. But if nobody bites, then what? You’ve gotta estimate a realistic price and watch how it moves, kind of like watching stocks on the NYSE. As for the second part... I'm not really sure, haven't tried it myself. If liquidity is low on a game, maybe you can get the price you want to buy or sell, but the real issue is whether you can actually exit the position later. If you just hold until the end, that's just regular gambling, not really trading. In actual trading, you're trying to predict the movement so you can flip it for a profit regardless of the final score. It's all about making sure your Back price is higher than your Lay price—it doesn't even matter which comes first. Of course, you won't always win; sometimes you'll get stuck in a bad position where the math doesn't work, but I suppose that's just how you minimize losses when things go south.
David Gomez6 said:I'm also wondering how sure you can be about selling a price that's common in the market if yours isn't actually different from the others??
It just depends on the liquidity and how the price moves, I guess. When you offer a price, you basically join the end of the line—the queue—behind everyone else who offered that same price. You have to wait until all their bets are matched or cancelled (since you can always pull your bet if nobody takes it before then) before it’s your turn. Of course, there's a chance nobody ever takes it because the price might move away from you. For example, looking at tonight's game between Roma and Udinese, there's currently $7,370 available for a Roma win at 1.72, and $1,288 for Roma not to win at 1.73.
If you try to Lay at 1.73 (meaning you expect Roma to win and want to take the Back side, so your bet shows up on the Lay side for someone betting against them), you won't get matched until those $1,288 are cleared out first. But, looking at it now, the price seems to be drifting down slightly, so maybe your bet won't even get picked up? It might just trade at 1.72 and then drop to 1.71. On the flip side, if you think Roma won't win and you Lay at 1.72, you're just waiting at the back of that $7,370 line.
Then again, you could just take whatever is already sitting there. If you think 1.72 is a fair price for a Roma win, you can just jump in and match immediately. Or if you think they won't win and 1.73 is the right spot, you can just grab that Lay bet right now.
By the way, a Lay price of 1.73 on Roma is basically like a Double Chance (X2) at 2.37, which is 2.30 after a 5% Service Fee. At my local sportsbook, the Roma win is 1.70 and the Double Chance is 1.90. So, getting 2.30 instead of 1.90 is like a 44% better return!
David Gomez6 said:..if I'm following you correctly, when we sell a price, we set a max stake, like $100. So one person could take the whole thing, or twenty people could each take $5? If that's how it works... maybe you could answer this:
Let's say I set a price for a huge game where the odds have crashed from 1.4 to 1.3. (Quick side question: does the price crash because people are piling in, or because people see the price dropping and decide to bail? Or maybe when the price drops so much that shops start blocking bets, that's when the rush actually starts?) Anyway, if I put in a Lay at 1.3, matching everyone else offering 1.3, and I somehow set an unlimited stake (which obviously I can't do without infinite coverage)...😁 ...but just for an estimate... how much cash would people actually pay me to take those odds off my hands??
I know you can't give me a straight answer, but I'm just curious about the general ballpark, even if it sounds silly. I'm wondering if we're talking about maybe just a few bucks
...or if it's the complete opposite: where everything in your range sells easily until you hit your max limit....
I hope you get what I'm asking... and if you've dealt with this before, maybe you could help me out 👍
I think I've kind of touched on this already—you put up an odd and a stake, and whether it gets picked depends on market interest (if enough people want it) and how the market views if that price is right, or if it needs to move up or down. It happens pretty often that, say, you offer a $100 stake, and maybe only $70 gets matched at your price. That remaining $30 might just stay unmatched and eventually get canceled, or you could manually cancel it yourself, or even tweak the odds to match the market movement so they get accepted at a different price.