darkmarlin16 said:They were solid in Bahrain last year, and sure, they won in Australia, but let’s be real—that was mostly thanks to Haas pulling off some mechanical miracles. I wouldn't write Ferrari off just yet.
Australia is always a weird one. It doesn't tell you much, and the same goes for Red Bull Racing, just in reverse.
If you listen to the "wisdom" coming out of Toto's kitchen, they were actually dominant last year. 😁
The Reality is they were worse than the USA last year. The only caveat is that Hamilton spent the first half of the season looking pretty checked out...
He looked more hungover than like a serious contender for a podium, let alone a win. ☕
Here was the Situation last year:
Australia:
Mercedes had a 0.664 edge in qualifying...
The Race — Mercedes absolutely choked on strategy, basically handing Ferrari a free pit stop. If it wasn't for that screw-up, Ferrari would've been screwed in Australia, trailing by at least 15 seconds.
Bahrain:
Ferrari had a 0.166 advantage in qualifying.
The Race — Ferrari won, but barely, scraping by with Bottas only 0.699 behind—and that’s assuming Bottas wasn't even really trying to hunt down Vettel.
The USA easily could have taken both Australia and Bahrain last year, especially if Hamilton had actually driven at his usual level...
Since the USA looks even better in Australia this year,
even if Ferrari gets their act together, I don't see them having a prayer. Last year they barely held off Bottas, and Hamilton was practically invisible in Bahrain.