NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Carlos Boozer over 14.5 @1.85

I noticed the line dropped by a full two points since this morning, and honestly, I’m feeling even better about this pick now. I haven't caught any of the Bulls games live, but looking at the stats, Boozer started the season pretty strong before cooling off just a bit over the last two outings. He’s going to be guarded by Serge Ibaka, who everyone knows is an elite rim protector, but he still struggles quite a bit against mobile Power Forwards who can hit from deep. Ibaka tends to get caught ballin' or late on closeouts when facing shooters. Now, looking at the Thunder's small-ball lineup with Kevin Durant at PF, I don't see KD playing overly aggressive defense or hunting fouls to stop him. Plus, you've got Alfred Collison as a defensive option, though his minutes are pretty limited. I’m expecting a nail-biter that stays close until the final buzzer, which means Boozer should see plenty of action—probably north of 30 minutes. With enough touches, he should clear this number easily.

True, but you have to consider Joakim. He’s seeing fewer touches lately, so he might actually find his rhythm if the OKC Thunder defense continues to be this porous. It's also possible the coaching staff has some specific plays cooked up for him.
Carlos Boozer really gave us a run for our money last year with those limits; Bones and I definitely felt the sting while trying to chase his points and the overs/unders. Personally, I’d probably pass on this one and call it a no bet, but hey, best of luck to you.

This is probably the best advice you’ll ever get regarding the NBA if you want to skip a day
A qualitative and quantitative scarcity of matchups that leads to forcing bets
With that in mind, here is what I would force today:

Portland Trail Blazers/LA Clippers (101.5) - more
The LA Clippers, coming off two unexpected back-to-back losses yesterday, just gave up 106 points to an actually decent San Antonio Spurs team. They give up a lot, but they also tend to grind through things—they've allowed 101 to the Memphis Grizzlies, 105 to the LA Lakers, 110 in a loss to the Golden State Warriors, 101 to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and then those 106 to the Spurs last night. So, the scoring stays in that range. If the margin were 103.5, I might be leaning toward the over. After giving up 106 in two games, Portland played an unexpectedly high-scoring game against the Houston Rockets; if that had been their last game, I’d feel way less confident about this, but they followed that up by giving up 114 to the Dallas Mavericks.
The argument against it would definitely be that in recent head-to-head matchups involving Portland, the Clippers haven't cleared this margin—if I counted correctly using some stats site, it's been 14-4 in favor of the under 101.5 over the last 8 years for the LA Clippers

Deng L (-18.5+) - Chicago Bulls less
That principle is pretty tricky to nail down. For the first three, it was under 17.5—including one where it stayed convincingly in single digits—only for that massive over against the Orlando Magic the night before last to bump the margin up by half a basket. I don't know, it's purely a gut feeling that his shot won't fall against Oklahoma City and he won't find many open looks. I'm also hoping he doesn't get to the free-throw line more than 2-4 times. A few fouls always help when playing the under, and I think they'll struggle defensively against the OKC Thunder, who are finally finding some rhythm; playing defense against their lineup isn't easy, whether it's the starters or the rotation. That's why I see a chance they might just throw in the towel on the bench a little earlier than usual.

I'd agree with the previous suggestion for Carlos Boozer 14.5 - over, he's slightly more offensively engaged in home games, whereas I'd describe his defensive effort as somewhat phlegmatic—which, honestly, helps with those foul trouble issues players in his position often run into. He'll grab a rebound here and there or just let a player quietly lay it in or dunk it when he sees his window has passed instead of risking a foul. Joakim Noah is much more vital under their basket.

I'll take these three matchups at 2/3; missing one returns the stake, and hitting all three is roughly stake * 3

wiredcanyon39 said:It’s not exactly a massive play today, but I figure we can take this one if we keep the stake relatively low 👍
OKC @1.85
.

☕

Los Angeles Lakers - Golden State Warriors 1 @1.40
Man, it is about damn time the Lakers actually pulled off a win. The Warriors look absolutely desperate right now, especially when they're playing on the road. With Russell out, they’re even more shorthanded tonight, so I guess Kobe Bryant and the rest of the crew really need to lock in at the Staples Center and grab this win just to keep the peace at home.

New Orleans vs Charlotte 2 @ 3.00

The Pelicans are missing Anthony Davis, Doc Rivers, and Aaron Gordon. Meanwhile, Charlotte is without Henderson, who honestly just eats up too many possessions without being efficient. I think Charlotte should pull this one off... regardless, at this Coefficient, it's worth a shot.
Washington, D.C. vs Milwaukee Bucks @

Washington, D.C. vs Milwaukee 2 @ 1.7

No Nene, no Ben Wallace... Milwaukee is coming in with a full roster. It's an easy win for them.

Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets 2 @ 1.75

That Coefficient is basically a gift from the sportsbook.

Denver vs Utah 2 @ 2.5

Denver is still trying to find their rhythm. Utah has looked incredibly convincing over the last few games. The value here is great, so I’m taking this as a lock... anything other than a Utah win would be a total shock.

James Harden (-25.5) 1

They're facing the Memphis Grizzlies, one of the toughest defensive squads out there. Plus, they'll have Tony Allen shadowing him, and he's a lockdown defender. Looking at a clear under here.

Dwight Howard (-21.5) 2

Last year, the Golden State Warriors used the Hack-a-Shaq strategy against the Orlando Magic because they lacked the height to match up defensively. They'll likely do the exact same thing this year since Andrew Bogut isn't playing and they can't effectively guard Dwight Howard. I'm expecting at least 30 free throw attempts... add about 10 regular points to that, and we've cleared the line.

Cheers!

wiredcanyon39 said:LA Lakers - Golden State Warriors 1 @1.40
It’s about damn time the Lakers actually pulled off a win. Honestly, the visitors look pretty desperate, especially when they're playing on the road. With Russell out injured, they're even more shorthanded tonight, so I guess Kobe and the rest of the crew at the Staples Center really need to secure a victory just to keep some peace in the house.

I'm with you there! The Lakers absolutely have to win this one. Personally, I'm feeling good about the -6.5 handicap, and maybe even taking the over on 101.5.🙂

wiredcanyon39 said:The odds are sitting at 1.40 for the Los Angeles Lakers to take down the Golden State Warriors. I guess that's what the books think, anyway.
...

Honestly, I think the coefficient is a bit too high here. It feels like they just set it based on the current number of teams, if you ask me.

It probably should have gone through without much trouble.

Jerry Vaughn said:I’m feeling good about Carlos Boozer going over 14.5 points here. At those odds? Honestly, it feels like a solid play. It's one of those situations where you just look at the matchup and think, "Yeah, that's happening." I'm leaning into it.

Carlos Boozer - 9 pts 🙂
I'm about to go dive into the replay just to see exactly what Carlos Boozer was bringing to the table. ☕

Steven Baker12 said:James Harden is sitting at a minus 25.5 coefficient. That's a massive gap to bridge. It’s like trying to make up twenty-five points in a single quarter—it sounds impossible when you really sit down and think about it. Just a huge hole to dig out of.

They’re up against the Memphis Grizzlies, and let me tell you, that squad is a defensive powerhouse. To make things even tougher, they've got Tony Allen lurking, and that guy is an absolute lockdown specialist. Honestly? I'm leaning heavily toward the under here.

Dwight Howard is sitting at -21.5 right now. That’s a massive spread to cover.

Last year, when the Golden State Warriors went up against the Orlando Magic, they had to resort to that whole Hack-a-Shaq strategy because they just didn't have the size in the paint to match up defensively. I'm calling it now: they’re going to pull the exact same stunt this season. Without Andrew Bogut in the rotation, they're basically helpless at guarding Dwight Howard. Honestly, I'm expecting him to get sent to the charity stripe at least 30 times. Toss in another 10 points from regular plays, and boom—they've already cleared that magic threshold.

Honestly, what else can I say? Just sign these two pairs and call it a day. 😁
I have to admit, I’m genuinely curious to see how James Harden handles himself tonight when he runs into an elite defender who’s basically camping out on him all game. Honestly? I’m expecting some heavy-duty flopping and shooting efficiency that looks a lot like Russell Westbrook's. ☕
When you look at the matchup with Dwight Howard, if they don't have Andrew Bogut in the lineup, that's basically a one-way street. It’s just going to be a straight shot for Dwight to run right over the rest of the Golden State Warriors' frontcourt.

I’d also throw in... I’m looking at Kevin Durant for under 26.5 points at 1.85. Honestly, it feels like a solid play to me. It's one of those spots where you just have to weigh the matchup and see if the math adds up. I've been staring at these numbers all morning, and something tells me we might see a slightly quieter night from him. Just a little hunch, but I like the value here. I’m honestly just saying this because that margin still feels way too wide for comfort. Kevin Durant has actually dialed back his shot volume compared to last season—we're talking about four fewer attempts per game. On the defensive end, he's putting in much more heavy lifting with rebounding, and when he's on offense, he's either playing facilitator by finding his teammates or just tossing the ball into the well, trying to make something happen out of nothing. Plus, we can't completely ignore the possibility of a total blowout.

Danilo Jaqua over 15.5

Utah's defense isn't exactly elite when it comes to guarding guards, and Jaqua is seeing plenty of volume right now. I'm expecting an entertaining matchup with significant minutes for him. Honestly, hitting 16 points shouldn't be much of a stretch, I guess.

Monta Ellis over 18.5

Brandon Jennings is a wild card; you never really know what to expect with him. 🙂 He’s getting a ton of shot attempts, and with Ben Wallace out, I anticipate they pull off the win tonight. Personally, I think he could easily clear 20 points.

Los Angeles Lakers 1

They are the significantly better squad here. Golden State is missing Andrew Bogut, so it feels unlikely they'll pull off an upset at the Staples Center.

New York Knicks 1

Without Dirk Nowitzki, they don't really have an answer for a New York City team that looks this good this season.

Phoenix Suns vs Cleveland Cavaliers. 1 1,60
LA Lakers - Golden State Warriors. 1 1,40

KF - 2,24

Phoenix isn't exactly great right now, but I guess they're still stronger than Cleveland. Plus, Cleveland kind of "used up" their momentum after that away win against the LA Clippers. I'm expecting a pretty ugly game, but maybe the home team pulls it off anyway.
The Lakers had a rough start to the season, so regardless of what the stats say, they really need this win to find some balance and keep building toward that 70-80% win rate goal. And hey, they've definitely got the star power. Golden State might actually struggle a bit here.
Good luck everyone, not just the bettors!

Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets 2 @1.75 – I honestly don't have much respect for this Orlando squad. Some people might disagree with me on that, but in my personal opinion, they’re just pretty weak. They seem to rely way too much on those little gimmicks that, I have to admit, work for them occasionally. Of course, that can happen, but over a larger sample size, I expect them to see a lot of losses. On the other hand, I really like Brooklyn. I think they've got good coverage across all positions and have the potential to actually build something special. The downside for this group is that the last two games showed just how much Brooklyn misses Ben Wallace, who got hurt in the season opener and probably won't play today. They don't really have an adequate replacement for his position, and I think it would be smart if they looked for a solution. But, what am I even saying? I guess they've realized that themselves. Still, I think they'll be able to make up for the handicap of not having a tough Ben Wallace against Orlando. Orlando is also without Mehmet Okur and Caron hậu today, and Nelson is questionable. To me, it's a good coefficient.

Atlanta Hawks – Miami Heat 2 @1.45 – Atlanta is a solid team, but I wouldn't say they're anyone the Miami Heat should be afraid of. There isn't much point in saying too much about Miami. I feel like we all know everything there is to know about them since they're probably the most heavily covered team in the media. As long as they aren't dealing with major injury issues, I think they're a lot more powerful than Atlanta.

New York City Knicks – Dallas Mavericks 1 @1.40 – Dallas is playing unexpectedly well this season, especially since everyone knows they're playing without Dirk Nowitzki. Then again, New York is playing just as well; they actually broke a season record by starting the year 3-0 for the first time since 1999. With the home crowd behind them today, I think they might even push that to 4-0. It's worth mentioning that Shawn Marion, who is so important for Dallas, won't be playing today either. So far, New York has surprised us all with their defense, while Dallas has been the opposite with their offense. I'm hoping the Knicks can find the right solution to win today in front of what I'm sure will be a wild crowd.

Steven Baker12 said:Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets 2 @ 1.75

That Coefficient is basically a gift from the sportsbook ...

Denver vs Utah 2 @ 2.5

Denver is still trying to find their rhythm... while Utah has looked more than convincing over the last few games ... the odds are so good I'm taking this as a lock... I mean anything other than a Utah win would be a total shocker.

Oh please, stop talking nonsense... seriously, because people who don't understand the NBA are going to read this and get greedy—it's statements like those bolded ones that cause problems🤦.

The Orlando Magic have shown that even after all those roster changes and looking weaker on paper, they might not just be some easy target... if their perimeter shooting starts clicking, anything can happen, especially since the Brooklyn Nets play absolutely atrocious defense—plus, they probably won't even have Ben Wallace playing his best defensive game tonight, and their offense is still a complete mess...

That second game is even more ridiculous... Denver is clearly the stronger team on paper, and Utah is notoriously bad on the road—I honestly don't know where you got the idea that they've been "more than convincing" lately... sure, they beat the Lakers, but the Lakers are a total mess right now, and before that, Utah had lost three straight on the road, and in their first home game, they only beat Dallas when Dirk Nowitzki and Marcin Gortat weren't even in the lineup...
I'm not saying both road teams can't win—not at all—but maybe dial it back a bit with these kinds of claims...

>>pa look, it’s just straight-up nonsense or lies—that's just the reality of it, I guess—but whatever... I get what you're trying to say, and I definitely wasn't trying to take a personal dig at 👍.

Keith Moore21 said:Come on, please don't talk nonsense... It's because of people who don't understand the NBA—and who might read this and get greedy—that statements like those bolded parts happen. 🤦

Orlando showed that despite big changes and looking weaker on paper, they might not just be a punching bag after all. If their perimeter shooting clicks tomorrow, anything can happen. Especially since the Brooklyn Nets play catastrophic defense, and they likely won't even have Ben Wallace playing his best defensive game tonight. Plus, their offense still feels a bit disjointed...

The second game is even more nonsensical... Denver looks stronger on paper, and the Utah Jazz are notoriously bad on the road. I have no idea where you got the idea they've been convincing over the last few games... They beat the Los Angeles Lakers, who are a mess right now, and before that, they lost three straight on the road. Then, in their first home game, they took down the Dallas Mavericks without Dirk Nowitzki and Marcus Kaman...
It's far from saying both visiting teams can't win—they certainly can—but let's dial back the extreme claims.

Utah has one of the best frontcourt rotations in the league. Meanwhile, Denver is incredibly thin at those positions... Iguodala hasn't quite integrated into the system yet, and it’s clear it'll take time to gel with the rest (which isn't easy). If we also consider that Danilo Gallinari and DeAndre Chandler haven't shown anything special this year, you can't expect miracles. By the way, to be clear—I actually really like Denver...

Orlando MIGHT win today if their shooting percentage stays above 0.9... If you compare the players and names on paper, you know this game could go one way... And dismissing a 1.75 koef. by saying JJ Redick might hit 20 threes is just ridiculous. Besides, nobody is forcing you to put $$ on these parlays... and nobody is forcing you to read other people's thoughts... so... 😉

Looks like Dwyane Wade is feeling a bit under the weather, so he’s sitting out the Miami Heat shootaround today.

Woodson mentioned he might stick with the same starting lineup tonight, but honestly, it all hinges on what the Mavericks decide to do. If they decide to roll with Brand and Kaman, then Woodson probably will go bigger.

The Wolves are being super quiet about whether Barea is actually going to play. He didn't say a word after the shootaround, and the team hasn't given much away besides saying he's still day-to-day.

On the bright side, we should see Anthony Davis back from that concussion and Austin Rivers back from his finger injury—they're both expected to suit up and be in starting lineup for Hornets!

Steven Baker12 said:New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte Hornets 2 @ 3.00

The Hornets are missing Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers, and Eric Gordon, while Charlotte is without Henderson, who’s basically just a high-volume, low-efficiency ball hog anyway. Charlotte should take this one... regardless, at these odds, it's worth a shot.
Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks @

Washington - Milwaukee 2 @ 1.7

No Nene, no Wall... Milwaukee is coming out full strength... easy win here...

Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets 2 @ 1.75

The odds are a total gift from the sportsbook...

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz 2 @ 2.5

Denver is still trying to find their rhythm... whereas Utah has looked incredibly convincing over the last few games... the odds are solid enough that I'm taking this as a lock... honestly, anything other than a Utah win would be a massive upset.

James Harden (-25.5) 1

They're facing the Memphis Grizzlies—one of the best defensive squads out there—and they'll have Tony Allen shadowing him, who's a lockdown defender... so, a clear under...

Dwight Howard (-21.5) 2

Last year, Golden State played "Hack the Shaq" against Orlando because they lacked the size to match up inside... they'll likely do the exact same thing this year since Andrew Bogut is out and they can't guard Dwight Howard effectively, so I'm expecting at least 30 free throw attempts... toss in another 10 regular points and that line is easily broken...

Cheers!

Look, both Davis and Rivers are playing tonight, and Henderson actually started the season strong, so his absence is huge. Calling something a "guaranteed win" is just plain stupid (Joshua Garcia8, don't take this personally, it's just the truth—you can't just say something is a "sure thing" without explaining why).
Same goes for this—calling the odds a "gift" isn't how this works; you need to provide actual reasoning. Joshua Garcia8, I hope the rules apply to everyone equally and that stuff like this isn't classified as "minimal info," because it's really not providing any info at all and shouldn't be allowed on the forum. Not to mention, Orlando's perimeter shooting is solid and their defense isn't a disaster either. Anything other than a Utah win would be a shocker— 🤦, Denver is significantly stronger and deep at every position; even if Utah has a slight edge in the paint, Denver is much more talented at the 1, 2, and 3 spots. I agree with the plays on Howard and Harden, but you simply can't use terms like "GUARANTEED UNDER," "SURE WIN," or "GIFT FROM THE BOOKIE"... it's immature and cocky. Plus, it breaks the basic rules of this thread.

Joshua Garcia8, I'm saying it again: you should probably get a warning for this... I know what I've been flagged for, so I know how this works.

Jerry Vaughn said:Carlos Boozer - 9 pts 🙂
I guess I should actually watch the game to see what Carlos brings to the table. ☕

Not much to say other than we need to sign both those pairs. 😁
I’m honestly curious to see how James Harden handles things tonight when he runs into an elite defender who's camping out solely on him. I'm expecting some heavy flops and shooting efficiency similar to Westbrook. ☕
As for Dwight Howard, without Andrew Bogut in the lineup, this should be a one-way street in the matchup between Dwight Howard and the rest of the Golden State Warriors frontcourt.

I'd also add Kevin Durant under 26.5 @1.85 just because the margin still feels way too high. Durant has dropped his shot attempts by about 4 compared to last season, and he's spending way more energy crashing boards on defense, while on offense he's either passing more or just chucking them into the well trying to force it. A blowout is also definitely on the table.

Just reading this now and it's basically identical to what I posted on SPAT; I'm totally down with that bet. 👍

Also, another solid play looks like: Kevin Durant-LeBron James duel 2 @1.95. Since Dwyane Wade probably isn't playing tonight, LBJ is going to have to carry even more weight, and Chris Bosh will be well-guarded.

Steven Baker12 said:The Utah Jazz have one of the most solid big man rotations going right now... whereas Denver is looking scary thin at those positions—like, seriously thin. Igoudala still hasn't quite found his rhythm within the system either, and you can tell it’s gonna take some real time before he actually meshes with the rest of the squad (which, honestly, is probably going to take a while). If you factor in that neither Gallinari nor Chandler have really brought anything special to the table this season, you just can't go expecting any miracles. Though, let me be clear—I've always had a soft spot for the Nuggets, they're definitely one of my favorite teams to watch.

The Orlando Magic might actually pull this one off today—if their shooting percentage stays north of 90%... though, I don't know. If you just look at the names and the roster on paper, it’s pretty obvious which way this game is leaning. Honestly, betting on a 1.75 line when you consider the possibility of JJ Redick draining maybe 20 threes? That feels kind of ridiculous to me. And besides, it's not like anyone is forcing you to put your hard-earned cash on these kinds of parlays... nor is anybody making you sit there and read what other people think... so... yeah. 😉

Man, I don't think you really caught my drift with my last post... I wasn't actually trying to comment on your take or what you’re predicting for tonight's games—it was more about the way you wrote up how they'd end, you know? Like, all that talk about gifts, surprises, and "if this happens, then that" stuff... it just doesn't really square with how these teams are actually playing right now. And honestly, if you're seriously out here thinking the Orlando Magic can only pull off a win because of JJ Redick... I mean, there's just no logic there. 😉

edit: @pro 👍