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NBA Betting: Vol. 2
NBA Betting: Vol. 2
Started by wiredcanyon39 · · 👁 12 views · 157 replies
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#62 ·
Kenneth Ward said:Charlotte - Dallas 2 1.45 @SS
At these odds, you really have to take the Dallas side. They played a few days ago and cruised to a +27 victory. Even though they started the season without Dirk Nowitzki, they’re playing better than anyone expected. They’ll be missing Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion again today, and potentially Vince Carter due to an injury against the New York Knicks, but their roster is still significantly deeper than what Charlotte is putting out. The Hornets will likely be without Henderson and possibly their center, Haywood.
They missed an absolute sitter🤦
Meaning they settled for a draw🤣 😠
Vince Carter actually looked great👍
#64 ·
stormyseal9 said:Alright, after being MIA all day because of the games, I’m finally getting back into the swing of things🤷, and man, even though Orlando cleaned up yesterday, that's just how the game goes😢.
GS vs Denver 2
-It’s a clash between two teams sitting at 3-3, but honestly, I’m giving the edge to the visitors. They’ve really found their rhythm, pulling off three straight wins after that rough 0-3 start. You gotta look at the facts: they’ve won 18 of their last 23 games! Meanwhile, the home team is probably going to be without Andrew Bogut again since his injury just won't heal, which leaves them looking seriously thin in the paint🤷.
Indiana Pacers (h-8.5) vs Washington 2
-Even though the visitors haven't tasted a win yet, they haven't been total disappointments; most of their games have been super close, which tells me that despite missing Chris Wall and Nenad Krstić, plus a Jamal Crawford who isn't quite 100%, they could actually give this Indiana squad a run for their money. And let's be real, Indiana isn't even half as good as they were last year. Losing Danny Granger to injury has been a massive blow, and a 2-4 record is definitely underwhelming given what everyone expected from them. They’ve dropped their last three, and those two wins they did grab were absolute grinds—one was a nail-biter against the Toronto Raptors where they trailed most of the way, and the other was an overtime slog against the Sacramento Kings. So yeah, I think taking the points with the underdog is the move here
. Stephen Curry over 19.5 FGA
😉-He’s facing a matchup he usually loves, especially considering how he absolutely shredded Denver recently (dropping 63 points over the last two games and shooting an insane 23-30)! Since I'm expecting a high-scoring shootout today, the over feels like a lock
. Andrea Bargnani over 17.5
🤷-With Kyle Lowry sidelined, he's stepping back into the spotlight, which means more shots for him. He showed exactly what he can do against the Dallas Mavericks when he dropped 25 points on just 20 attempts (9-15 on twos, 0-5 from deep), and his minutes went up by five too. I'm expecting something similar today because someone has to pick up the slack for those 20 missed shots, and the only guys with enough juice to do it are DeMar DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani, since they basically run the show
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15w/15l
It's not like I didn't see this coming🤷, but man, Denver had to grind out an overtime win, which doesn't change my outlook at all, and Curry ended up stuck right at 19 makes😍. Just great, isn't it? Another streak continues just like that🤣.
#65 ·
Oklahoma City Thunder (203.5) vs Cleveland under
-Honestly, that line feels way too high if you actually look at how these teams are playing lately. OKC has been sitting on an 8-game streak where they stay under 200 total points. The home team is averaging about 99 buckets while giving up 92.5, whereas the visitors are hovering around a 98/103 split🤷. Looking at the last 7 games, the under hit 5 times out of 7, and when they play specifically in OKC, the under has popped 3 times in their last 4 outings.
LeBron James under 25.5
-He’s nowhere near his usual efficiency levels this year, but honestly, why should he be? With Gordon Hayward coming in to pick up the slack from the guys who have been struggling, he doesn't need to carry the whole load. So far this season, the only time he even cracked 26 was in that first matchup against the Boston Celtics (8-12), which isn't surprising given how heated that rivalry gets. The home squad is a beast on the boards with some solid individual players (Gordon Hayward, Alvin Gay...) handling the defensive dirty work, and I don't think they're gonna let Alvin Gay go overboard, especially since he picked up that minor knee injury on Friday—no way the coach pushes him too hard there.
Miami under 98.5
-Even though Miami is one of the most efficient squads in the league, they are a completely different animal on the road, and they aren't facing an easy task against Memphis. Memphis allows home teams to score around 90 on average, and with both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James not being at 100% health, I just don't see how the visitors push past this margin🤷. It's just not happening🤷.
Brook Lopez (190.5) - Orlando under
-I remember when the Brooklyn Nets absolutely demolished the Orlando Magic on the road, winning 107-68; that was actually the first time in ten games they even broke the 100-point mark. The visitors started the season strong with two wins but have totally fallen off a cliff since, especially in their last two games where they averaged only about 71 points. I'm not expecting a shootout here, especially with all the guys missing from the rotation (Rasheed Wallace / Hedo Türkoğlu, Caron hậu Harrington, Don Nelson???)
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Going a bit bigger than usual on this one, SS
17w/17l
-Honestly, that line feels way too high if you actually look at how these teams are playing lately. OKC has been sitting on an 8-game streak where they stay under 200 total points. The home team is averaging about 99 buckets while giving up 92.5, whereas the visitors are hovering around a 98/103 split🤷. Looking at the last 7 games, the under hit 5 times out of 7, and when they play specifically in OKC, the under has popped 3 times in their last 4 outings.
LeBron James under 25.5
-He’s nowhere near his usual efficiency levels this year, but honestly, why should he be? With Gordon Hayward coming in to pick up the slack from the guys who have been struggling, he doesn't need to carry the whole load. So far this season, the only time he even cracked 26 was in that first matchup against the Boston Celtics (8-12), which isn't surprising given how heated that rivalry gets. The home squad is a beast on the boards with some solid individual players (Gordon Hayward, Alvin Gay...) handling the defensive dirty work, and I don't think they're gonna let Alvin Gay go overboard, especially since he picked up that minor knee injury on Friday—no way the coach pushes him too hard there.
Miami under 98.5
-Even though Miami is one of the most efficient squads in the league, they are a completely different animal on the road, and they aren't facing an easy task against Memphis. Memphis allows home teams to score around 90 on average, and with both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James not being at 100% health, I just don't see how the visitors push past this margin🤷. It's just not happening🤷.
Brook Lopez (190.5) - Orlando under
-I remember when the Brooklyn Nets absolutely demolished the Orlando Magic on the road, winning 107-68; that was actually the first time in ten games they even broke the 100-point mark. The visitors started the season strong with two wins but have totally fallen off a cliff since, especially in their last two games where they averaged only about 71 points. I'm not expecting a shootout here, especially with all the guys missing from the rotation (Rasheed Wallace / Hedo Türkoğlu, Caron hậu Harrington, Don Nelson???)
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Going a bit bigger than usual on this one, SS
17w/17l
#66 ·
Brooklyn Nets vs. Orlando Magic
-7.5 Brooklyn @ 1.926 Pinnacle
under 191 @ 1.952 Pinnacle
Orlando under 91.5 @ 1.85 SS
The Nets are still finding their rhythm at the start of the season, which makes sense given the massive roster overhaul and moving into a new arena. But honestly, that home loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves is the only real stumble they've had so far. Just a few days ago, they absolutely dismantled this same Orlando squad in Florida by 39 points, and that’s exactly why I’m making this pick. I don't see how the Magic can adjust to the Nets' winning formula in just a couple of days. Kris Humphries just played his best game of the season against them, which isn't surprising since the Magic interior is totally gutted after losing Dwight Howard. Orlando is going to have to completely rethink their system this year. Having Howard on the roster meant way more easy buckets, better looks from deep, and significantly more free throw attempts—which is a huge factor in the final score. In their last matchup against the Nets, Orlando only managed 8 free throws. To make things even weirder, not a single starter even stepped up to the line. The fact that the Magic didn't take a single free throw in the first half, while the Nets were clearly the more aggressive team, tells you everything you need to know about how that Florida game went. Even without anything particularly flashy from the backcourt duo of Russell Johnson and Williams, the Nets controlled the tempo. I just don't see how the power dynamic changes today.
-7.5 Brooklyn @ 1.926 Pinnacle
under 191 @ 1.952 Pinnacle
Orlando under 91.5 @ 1.85 SS
The Nets are still finding their rhythm at the start of the season, which makes sense given the massive roster overhaul and moving into a new arena. But honestly, that home loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves is the only real stumble they've had so far. Just a few days ago, they absolutely dismantled this same Orlando squad in Florida by 39 points, and that’s exactly why I’m making this pick. I don't see how the Magic can adjust to the Nets' winning formula in just a couple of days. Kris Humphries just played his best game of the season against them, which isn't surprising since the Magic interior is totally gutted after losing Dwight Howard. Orlando is going to have to completely rethink their system this year. Having Howard on the roster meant way more easy buckets, better looks from deep, and significantly more free throw attempts—which is a huge factor in the final score. In their last matchup against the Nets, Orlando only managed 8 free throws. To make things even weirder, not a single starter even stepped up to the line. The fact that the Magic didn't take a single free throw in the first half, while the Nets were clearly the more aggressive team, tells you everything you need to know about how that Florida game went. Even without anything particularly flashy from the backcourt duo of Russell Johnson and Williams, the Nets controlled the tempo. I just don't see how the power dynamic changes today.
#67 ·
stormyseal9 said:Brook Lopez(190,5)-Orlando under
-So, apparently the Brooklyn Nets absolutely crushed the Orlando Magic on the road with a 107-68 blowout, which was actually the first time they’ve cracked the 100-point mark in ten games. The visitors started the season strong with two wins, but then they totally fell off a cliff, especially in their last two outings where they averaged only about 71 points. I wouldn't expect a massive scoring night here either, especially considering all the guys missing from the rotation like Rasheed Wallace / Hedo Türkoğlu, Caron hậu Harrington, and Don Nelson.
17w/17l
I am totally on board with this pick; there is just no way this game hits that over margin for a few different reasons. First off, look at Orlando's free throw rate—it's sitting at 15% (FT/FGA, #28), while their opponents are at 18.5% (FT/FGA, #20). What I mean by that is Orlando rarely gets themselves to the charity stripe, which makes it tough to rack up those easy points, but they aren't exactly handing out free throws to anyone else either, even though the Nets managed 25 attempts and still struggled with a mediocre 64% conversion rate. Then you have the pace, or the average number of possessions per 48 minutes, which basically tells you how fast the game flows. The Brooklyn Nets are pretty sluggish there, ranking 28th, while Orlando sits at 23rd. It really feels like Orlando just doesn't attack the paint; against the Nets in their first matchup, they only had 17 field goal attempts at the rim with 9 made, compared to the Nets putting up 28 attempts and hitting 19. All these stats point toward a game where you won't see many easy buckets, but rather a lot of mid-range jumpers, which is basically Orlando's whole playbook. Orlando just doesn't have anyone capable of driving to the hoop and cleaning up offensive boards; Glen Davis is really their only weapon in that department, so if you shut him down, you've basically won half the battle. All in all, taking the under is the perfect move, and the only reason that high margin even exists is because of their recent averages for points scored and allowed.☕
#68 ·
Jerry Vaughn said:So, looking at today's slate...
Milwaukee vs Boston 2 @2.00
DeMar DeRozan under 17.5 @1.85
James Harden over 24.5 @1.85
Milwaukee vs Boston 92:96
DeMar DeRozan - 19 pts
James Harden - 20 pts
If I had to pick one more thing to lean on, I’d go with Glen Davis over 15.5 @1.85. It’s pretty straightforward logic: the Orlando Magic are still going to be feeling the absence of Hedo Türkoğlu and Caron hậu Harrington, and since Don Nelson is listed as doubtful, the rotation shifts. The ball is going to have to circulate through Afflal and JJ Redick. Right now, the shot distribution among those three favors Davis heavily (it's sitting at 18-14-10), so if he gets his usual minutes, he should easily clear that margin.
#69 ·
LA Clippers - Atlanta Hawks
-5,5 LA Clippers @1,909 Pinnacle 6/10 units
I don't really see how the Hawks can hang with the Clippers tonight if they're feeling it. Honestly, looking at it realistically, the Clippers probably should have been 6-0 by now. Those home losses against the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers were mistakes they can't afford to make again if they actually want to contend this postseason. But, the games since then suggest they learned their lesson. They looked dominant beating the San Antonio Spurs and on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers. Their offense is clicking right now. They’ve cleared 100 points in all six games so far, averaging about sixty players in double figures. The roster feels balanced at every spot, and the depth at the guard positions is huge. You basically have Chris Paul and Draymond Green starting—who just came over from the Hawks this year—but the real strength is the bench. Having Jamal Crawford there, who's been arguably the league's best sixth man for years, changes everything. Add Eric Bledsoe and Jimmy Butler to that mix, and you're just waiting for Chauncey Billups to get back. On paper, I guess that's easily a top three backcourt in the league. On the flip side, the Hawks have been shuffling their guards constantly this season. Losing their main guy, Russell Johnson, left a hole they've tried to fill with a revolving door of guys like Williams, Morrow, Stevenson, Kyle Korver, and Tony Harris. Drew is experimenting a lot early on, and it's pretty obvious he hasn't found the right formula yet. Maybe the Hawks have an edge at the wing with Josh Smith, but the Clippers' rotation there is deep enough to shut him down. They've got two veterans from the LA Lakers, Odom and Marvin Barnes, plus Butler, who can slide over to cover Smith. Inside, the Clippers should dominate again, especially seeing how much Michael Jordan has improved offensively compared to last year. It'll be an interesting matchup between Al Horford and Jordan, especially since Jordan has a much stronger backup in Blake Griffin. Also, the Hawks have another game tomorrow against Portland, so if they find themselves in a big hole early, I doubt Drew is going to force it.
-5,5 LA Clippers @1,909 Pinnacle 6/10 units
I don't really see how the Hawks can hang with the Clippers tonight if they're feeling it. Honestly, looking at it realistically, the Clippers probably should have been 6-0 by now. Those home losses against the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers were mistakes they can't afford to make again if they actually want to contend this postseason. But, the games since then suggest they learned their lesson. They looked dominant beating the San Antonio Spurs and on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers. Their offense is clicking right now. They’ve cleared 100 points in all six games so far, averaging about sixty players in double figures. The roster feels balanced at every spot, and the depth at the guard positions is huge. You basically have Chris Paul and Draymond Green starting—who just came over from the Hawks this year—but the real strength is the bench. Having Jamal Crawford there, who's been arguably the league's best sixth man for years, changes everything. Add Eric Bledsoe and Jimmy Butler to that mix, and you're just waiting for Chauncey Billups to get back. On paper, I guess that's easily a top three backcourt in the league. On the flip side, the Hawks have been shuffling their guards constantly this season. Losing their main guy, Russell Johnson, left a hole they've tried to fill with a revolving door of guys like Williams, Morrow, Stevenson, Kyle Korver, and Tony Harris. Drew is experimenting a lot early on, and it's pretty obvious he hasn't found the right formula yet. Maybe the Hawks have an edge at the wing with Josh Smith, but the Clippers' rotation there is deep enough to shut him down. They've got two veterans from the LA Lakers, Odom and Marvin Barnes, plus Butler, who can slide over to cover Smith. Inside, the Clippers should dominate again, especially seeing how much Michael Jordan has improved offensively compared to last year. It'll be an interesting matchup between Al Horford and Jordan, especially since Jordan has a much stronger backup in Blake Griffin. Also, the Hawks have another game tomorrow against Portland, so if they find themselves in a big hole early, I doubt Drew is going to force it.
#70 ·
I honestly feel like I’m overdoing it sometimes; it seems like every tenth post could probably skip the deep dives, but hey, I just love sharing my takes and trying to help out whenever I can!
Nikola Vucevic/12.5 under 1.85
Looking at this Matchup, facing off against Lopez & Blatche in that first game was just way too much for a talented guy like Nikola Vucevic who's still finding his footing. He couldn't find any rhythm against the second guy, so he definitely wasn't going to have an easy time against the first one either.
Nikola Vucevic/12.5 under 1.85
Looking at this Matchup, facing off against Lopez & Blatche in that first game was just way too much for a talented guy like Nikola Vucevic who's still finding his footing. He couldn't find any rhythm against the second guy, so he definitely wasn't going to have an easy time against the first one either.
#71 ·
OKC -9.5 @1.85
Look, we all know the OKC Thunder have a killer squad right now. They absolutely tear through opponents at home, especially when they're facing those bottom-tier teams from the East. The Cavs show a little flashes of talent here and there, I guess, but let's be real—they aren't going anywhere significant for at least a couple more seasons. Kyrie Irving is obviously their main guy, but tonight it feels like Russell Westbrook might be the one running the show; he’s such a beast physically. They might even throw a defensive specialist like Sefolosh at him, which would be a pretty tough matchup to handle. Varejão has had a decent start to the season, but honestly, trying to get anything meaningful done in the paint against Ibaka / Perkins tonight? Probably not gonna happen. Their two biggest scoring threats are likely getting shut down, so I don't see OKC having any trouble putting up a hundred points or so thanks to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Andre Martin.
I'm totally with you on the LA Clippers, man. Especially when you look at how bad the Atlanta Hawks are on the perimeter lately—I really think Chris Paul is going to just dismantle them tonight. As for the Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic, I'm leaning the same way; both are struggling squads without any real elite scorers, so it's looking like a total under to me.
Look, we all know the OKC Thunder have a killer squad right now. They absolutely tear through opponents at home, especially when they're facing those bottom-tier teams from the East. The Cavs show a little flashes of talent here and there, I guess, but let's be real—they aren't going anywhere significant for at least a couple more seasons. Kyrie Irving is obviously their main guy, but tonight it feels like Russell Westbrook might be the one running the show; he’s such a beast physically. They might even throw a defensive specialist like Sefolosh at him, which would be a pretty tough matchup to handle. Varejão has had a decent start to the season, but honestly, trying to get anything meaningful done in the paint against Ibaka / Perkins tonight? Probably not gonna happen. Their two biggest scoring threats are likely getting shut down, so I don't see OKC having any trouble putting up a hundred points or so thanks to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Andre Martin.
I'm totally with you on the LA Clippers, man. Especially when you look at how bad the Atlanta Hawks are on the perimeter lately—I really think Chris Paul is going to just dismantle them tonight. As for the Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic, I'm leaning the same way; both are struggling squads without any real elite scorers, so it's looking like a total under to me.
#72 ·
James Howard63 said:I mean, seriously; it feels like every tenth post here could probably get by without some deep-dive analysis—I think I’m putting enough out there, making suggestions and helping whenever I can, for as much as I'm able to.
Look, just don't go using "it's a lock" or "it's a gift" as actual arguments for a pick—if you do, those posts aren't gonna stay up.😉
#73 ·
New York – Orlando – I guess you have to wonder if writing an analysis for this matchup even makes sense? I say that because they just played two days ago, and Orlando was a total disaster. They lost by 39 points to Brooklyn. Honestly, the situation hasn't changed much. Orlando is missing Turkoglu, Harrington, Nelson, and Jones, while Brooklyn is without Wallace and Brooks. If you need my previous take so I don't repeat myself -> I really don't have much respect for this Orlando squad. Some people disagreed with me on that, but I'll stick to my guns: in my opinion, they're just weak. They seem to rely entirely on those little lucky streaks that, I have to admit, look incredible at times. Sure, that can happen, but looking at a larger sample size, I see a lot of losses ahead for them. Brooklyn, on the other hand, is a team I actually like. I think they're well-covered at every position and have real potential to do something special. The downside for this group is that the last two games showed just how much Brooklyn misses Wallace, who got hurt in the season opener and probably won't play today either. They don't really have a decent replacement for his position, and I think it would be smart for them to find a solution. But, what am I even saying? I'm sure they've realized that themselves. Still, I suspect they'll be able to make up for not having a solid Wallace against Orlando.
J. Smith 14.5 over – J. Smith is basically the main guy in Atlanta now that Johnson moved on to a different club. It’s pretty obvious he’s in a bit of a slump, which you can tell just by looking at his stats—they're honestly kind of ridiculous right now. Naturally, I expect him to turn things around and fix those numbers soon. Right now, he's averaging about 17.3 field goal attempts and 3.3 free throws, but his shooting percentages are so low that he's only averaging 14 points. RIGHT NOW! That can't last forever, and I'd bet on a player taking that many shots to hit the over on a 14.5 line. I think in the last game, he took 19 shots and 5 free throws. So, yeah, I think 14.5 is just too low for him.
Oklahoma – Cleveland 1 – We all know Oklahoma is one of the top teams in the league. Maybe they're still finding their rhythm after that massive Harden trade, so the pieces are still settling, but I don't think there's much to overthink here. You shouldn't expect much from Cleveland when they're playing on the road. Since I felt comfortable betting against them when they went to face Golden State, I see no reason not to bet against them again today.
J. Smith 14.5 over – J. Smith is basically the main guy in Atlanta now that Johnson moved on to a different club. It’s pretty obvious he’s in a bit of a slump, which you can tell just by looking at his stats—they're honestly kind of ridiculous right now. Naturally, I expect him to turn things around and fix those numbers soon. Right now, he's averaging about 17.3 field goal attempts and 3.3 free throws, but his shooting percentages are so low that he's only averaging 14 points. RIGHT NOW! That can't last forever, and I'd bet on a player taking that many shots to hit the over on a 14.5 line. I think in the last game, he took 19 shots and 5 free throws. So, yeah, I think 14.5 is just too low for him.
Oklahoma – Cleveland 1 – We all know Oklahoma is one of the top teams in the league. Maybe they're still finding their rhythm after that massive Harden trade, so the pieces are still settling, but I don't think there's much to overthink here. You shouldn't expect much from Cleveland when they're playing on the road. Since I felt comfortable betting against them when they went to face Golden State, I see no reason not to bet against them again today.
#76 ·
redhawk3 said:why doesn't DraftKings have New York – Orlando or Brook in their lineup? 🤷
I noticed most of you guys mentioned placing bets through DraftKings
the game tipped off at 9:00 PM 🙂
#78 ·
redhawk3 said:Why doesn't DraftKings have the New York – Orlando or Brook game on their board? 🤷
I noticed most of you guys mentioning you placed your bets through them.
Perhaps because they tipped off at 9?🤷
It was definitely available on the DraftKings app earlier.
#80 ·
Jerry Vaughn said:If I had to pick one more thing to bet on, I’d go with g. Davis over 15.5 @1.85. It’s pretty straightforward logic here: Orlando is still going to be feeling the absence of Turkoglu and Harrington, and since Nelson is listed as doubtful, the offense is going to look a bit different. He’s going to have to share those shots with Afflal and Redick, but if you look at the current shot distribution among those three (18-14-10), things are heavily leaning toward Davis right now. If he gets his usual minutes, he should easily clear that line.
g. Davis - 19 pts
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