NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Hornets | 2 (1.75)
9/10
The math here is pretty straightforward, I guess. If the Warriors actually want to hang onto that high draft pick, they basically need to stay among the seven worst teams in the league—otherwise, that pick just slides right over to Utah. Honestly, if they end up dropping both matchups against the Hornets, they’re looking at a lock for a top 7 pick. Since this roster is still such a work in progress, keeping that pick is huge for them. At this point, they kind of need to lose tonight, no matter how weird that sounds.

What’s everyone’s take on taking Miami at 1.90?

Bradley Kern6 said:What do you guys think about Miami at 1.90?

Yesterday was a gift—Portland, the Bobcats, all that...
Out of all my picks, the only ones that actually hit were the unders on Indiana and those awful Nets, which, predictably, played out exactly how they did.🤣
But hey, it is what it is. Not our first rodeo. Today’s slate is much worse, I agree—some of these games are just too high-stakes or too evenly matched to call.
I'm with my buddy on the Hornets. Regardless of whether the Warriors need the pick, New Orleans has been playing lights out since Gordon came back—they've taken 5 of their last 7, even if they choked away a winnable one in LA last time. This team has been the biggest underdog story this season because they haven't even had more than three starters on the floor at once (sometimes zero!). If they stayed healthy, they'd be a lock for the playoffs...
Everything else looks pretty uninspiring, and the board isn't even full yet. Honestly? Might be best to just "sleep on it" today.🧐

I've got an Iguodala over 13.5 on one leg of my parlay, and then Ellis over 16.5 on the other—anybody happen to catch the final scores for those? 🤷

feralranger81 said:I'm just sitting here waiting on my parlay—looking for Iguodala to go over 13.5 and Ellis to hit over 16.5. Anyone happen to catch the live stats? 🤷

Looks like 14 and 17.
A buddy of mine who actually knows how to use Google sent these over:

http://www.nba.com/games/20120423/PH...#nbaGIboxscore
http://www.nba.com/games/20120423/TO...#nbaGIboxscore

Eric Fox7 said:14 and 17
A buddy of mine who actually has INTERNET sent me this:

http://www.nba.com/games/20120423/PH...#nbaGIboxscore
http://www.nba.com/games/20120423/TO...#nbaGIboxscore

Must be some kind of rich 🤣

Eric Fox7 said:14 and 17
A buddy of mine who actually has INTERNET just sent me this:

http://www.nba.com/games/20120423/PH...#nbaGIboxscore
http://www.nba.com/games/20120423/TO...#nbaGIboxscore

I was checking some stats over on NBA.tv—and apparently, I'm a total amateur—because it showed 8 points for Iguodala, but turns out he hit that in just the first quarter! What was I even looking at? haha. So, I did a little digging to double-check, and yeah, looks like both of those bets cleared after all.

Just so you know where to look next time:

http://www.nba.com/
You can grab the box score for every single game right there.

Eric Fox7 said:Just so you don't have to ask next time, here's where you look:

http://www.nba.com/
Every single game has its own box score right there.

Plus, any sportsbook's site will have yesterday's results posted on their pages.☕

Yesterday was a bit of a mixed bag, seeing as I missed out on the Charlotte Hornets under and that Cavs game landing at 13.5 hands ☕.

As for what might be worth looking at today... well, the selection is looking a little thin, which is always a bit of a bummer, but one specific matchup caught my eye: Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns, specifically the over 202.5. It seems to me that almost every single game involving these two squads lately has been
trending well above that line, so honestly, I don't see any reason why it shouldn't happen again today.

That being said, I should probably exercise a little patience and wait for the injury reports and the latest news to trickle in around 6:00 or 7:00 PM...

Hmm, it’s entirely plausible that we might see the Miami Heat showing up in Boston tonight without much of a perimeter threat. Wade is dealing with an injury, LeBron has been making public comments about needing some downtime—and honestly, if he’s looking for a break, Bosh probably should be too. Now I’m left weighing the risk of taking that +2 spread versus just waiting for more official news.

I should also mention that since Oklahoma missed out on the top seed in the West, their upcoming schedule feels pretty inconsequential. Because of that, those 28 points for Durant feel a bit excessive to me. In a worst-case scenario, I'm looking at a voided bet.

Still, we all get a little wiser every day after the closing bell.

Arthur Hill2 said:Let’s not forget that Oklahoma already dropped their spot at the top of the West—which basically makes their upcoming games irrelevant. Because of that, those 28 points from Durant feel a bit excessive to me. In a worst-case scenario, we're looking at a complete wash.

You're overlooking the overall record again—specifically regarding a potential Miami vs. Oklahoma finals matchup, where they currently sit even. Home-court advantage is a massive factor here.

James Taylor3 said:You’re overlooking the overall matchup dynamics here. We have to consider the potential for a massive Miami vs. Oklahoma City matchup in the finals, where they currently sit at an even split. In a series like that, home-court advantage becomes an absolutely critical factor.

Miami has already started resting their starters for a few games now, which is a huge strategic move—specifically rotating two of their top three players. It is highly probable that OKC will end up taking a full week of rest before they even face the possibility of a home-court advantage against the Heat, assuming either team actually makes it that far.

On another note, it's been a while since I've heard from you or Eric Fox7. How are things going with Portland? Are they finally playing to win instead of tanking? ?

Arthur Hill2 said:Yeah, it’s totally plausible that the Heat show up in Boston tonight without a decent three-point threat—Wade’s banged up, LeBron’s already out there publicly hinting he needs a breather... so who knows if Bosh is even going to grind through it? Might be better if he just sits too.

LeBron isn't playing the last two.😉

@ Arthur Hill2

Man, you’re still spinning your wheels on the same old points—even if half of what you're saying doesn't really hold water. Look, we both already laid out why those seed ratios matter if these teams actually end up facing off in the Finals, but hey, whatever makes you happy 🙂

Keep having fun "learning" basketball and NBA strategy via Twitter threads, though 😉

As for Portland, they haven't moved an inch from where they were, so I don't see much of a tanking situation happening there—besides, with their roster being so thin right now, they wouldn't be competitive enough to aim for anything higher anyway 🤷

Arthur Hill2 said:Miami has been resting players for a few games now—a massive strategic move. Given they might rest two of their top three guys, OKC will likely take a week off before any potential home court advantage against the Heat, assuming either team even makes it that far.

Anyway, you and Eric Fox7 have been quiet lately—how's Portland doing with that whole "tanking" theory of yours?

Wade and Bosh are dealing with minor injuries; there’s no reason to risk them against the Bobcats, Nets, Raptors, or teams like that when they can just lean on LeBron. They stumbled against Washington, sure, but they’ve still won six of their last seven.

Rest days aside, home-court advantage is the real factor here—though you clearly aren't seeing that.

As for Portland, you were completely off regarding their tanking. Just look at their record right after you posted that—they beat some of the best teams in the league and lost several close ones by razor-thin margins. It’s only in these last six or seven games that they decided to coast and play the bench, mostly because they're missing Aldridge in those stretches, along with the occasional rotation from Batum, Felton, or Crawford.

The point remains: intentionally losing makes zero sense for them. Their standing hasn't changed in ages—not since Eric Fox7 and I pointed out they were already locked into a specific slot. Tanking would barely budge their draft odds.
In these meaningless matchups, they’re simply rotating the roster to see which rookies and bench players actually deserve a spot next season.

I haven't chimed in on this because I don't see the point in dwelling on it—not because I was wrong.

Thinking about grabbing some Boston at 2.00...
Might be worth the gamble to get in early. Boston looks decent enough without Allen, plus most of the teams over here are already coasting through their rest days...🤷

I mean, maybe Boston could take a night off tonight too? I guess playing away at the Garden is a much bigger deal than just resting up after a home game, right?

Eric Fox7 said:@ Arthur Hill2

You’re still spinning your wheels on the same nonsense, even though you’re talking trash and we both already established that seedings matter if these teams meet in the Finals. Regardless, his excitement is 🙂

Keep enjoying your NBA education via Twitter feeds. 😉

Portland is exactly where they were before, so I don't see any actual tanking going on. Besides, with their roster depleted by injuries, they don't have the depth to contend for anything more anyway. 🤷

I was wrong about 🙂
The idea that he learns from Twitter 🙂(p.s. Is that really necessary? Let me dismantle your logic first before you resort to cheap shots, alright? ☕)
Where did I ever claim home-court advantage wasn't important? It’s just obviously not a deciding factor for Miami when Bosh is sidelined with those "bumps and bruises." 🤣🤣 And Wade had some phantom injury right before the finger dislocation, if I recall correctly.

Portland was definitely tanking. My smoking gun—that they aren't trading key assets for future picks—is something you haven't been able to refute because you simply can't..

James Taylor3 said:Wade and Bosh are just dealing with minor knocks; there's no way they want to risk them against heavy hitters like the Bobcats, Nets, or Raptors when they can just roll with LeBron inside. They only stumbled against Washington, and they've won six of their last seven.

Rest doesn't matter, and home-court advantage is a massive deal—you clearly just don't get it.

As for Portland, you completely missed the mark regarding their tanking. Just look at their record immediately after you posted that; they beat some of the best teams in the league and lost several close ones. They only decided to tank and play the bench during these last six or seven games, specifically because they're missing Aldridge, and occasionally Batum, Felton, and Crawford.

And my point still stands: there’s no incentive for them to lose on purpose. They aren't in a position to gain anything from it, and they haven't been for a while. Like Eric Fox7 and I said back then, they're sitting at the 2nd or 3rd spot, so a slightly better draft position wouldn't change their trajectory.
Part of the reason they're rotating heavily in these meaningless games is simply to see which of their new signings and bench players actually deserve a spot next season.

I'm not stepping back from this discussion because I'm admitting fault; I'm doing it because I see no point in indulging this.

Let me rephrase, because you seem to think I don't grasp how vital home-court advantage is. It feels more like you don't understand the disparity in how teams value it. Miami clearly views HCA as a much smaller variable than, say, Chicago does. There is a fundamental difference in perspective here.

A rested and ready Durant through every stage leading up to the Finals>>>>A fatigued and potentially injured Durant facing Miami with home-court advantage in an eventual Finals matchup🙂

Ultimately, we’ll just have to see how the Oklahoma City front office handles this mess. Tonight marks the first night they lack any real incentive to compete, aside from that potential edge against Miami, and the choice rests entirely on them.

Portland started tanking the very second they traded Wallace for a future pick. Is it really that difficult to comprehend that by doing so, they effectively weakened their own future? Or is it somehow logical to shoot yourself in the foot during the final sprint? 🙂

Yeah, but you were actually claiming they’re tanking just to snag a better pick in the draft—do I really need to dig up those old posts?—and when we called you out on it, we pointed out how little sense that makes. A couple of positions aren't going to change much of anything once the draft actually starts.

On another note, teams resting their stars a few games before the playoffs kick off isn't weird at all—it's standard procedure—but I honestly think Miami screwed the pooch there. They probably thought they could coast through the rest of the season without their top two guys, which turned out to be a massive miscalculation. That said, it’s not about them throwing games or not caring about their seeding (which, by the way, could be huge if they make it to the Finals). So, saying Oklahoma (and Miami, for that matter) doesn't care about these end-of-season games is just plain stupid.

But hey, feel free to keep getting your "education" from Twitter. 🙂

I'm done for the day.