NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Eric Fox7 said:Look, you’re the one who claimed they were tanking just to secure a better pick in the draft—and honestly, do I really need to dig up those old posts? We already shut that argument down. It makes zero sense. Improving your position by just one or two spots doesn't change anything; when you're looking at the big picture, those minor shifts in draft order are practically meaningless.

The coaches are resting their key players for a few games before the playoffs kick off. It’s nothing out of the ordinary, really. But I honestly believe Miami screwed themselves over by assuming they could just coast through the rest of the season without their top two stars. That turned out to be a massive tactical error. That said, this isn't about them throwing games or being indifferent toward improving their record—which, by the way, could be incredibly important come the Finals. Because of that, it’s just plain foolish to suggest that the remaining games for Oklahoma and Miami don't actually matter.

That’s it for me today. End of play.

Wait, so they’re tanking, but they aren't actually tanking to secure a better draft position? 😕 What exactly is the point of throwing the game then? Why wouldn't you want to actually improve your odds by securing a better position?

It stands to reason, really. Given how vital the HCA is to Miami, they’ve clearly decided that playing at one-third capacity is a risk worth taking. It's their call, of course.

End of day for me too. There’s really no sense in beating a dead horse. 👋

I see you managed to sneak that provocation in through an edit. 🤣 Good grief, what an absolute troll. 🤣

Arthur Hill2 said:Portland is tanking— which is my ultimate proof that you haven't even once disputed that key players aren't being traded for future picks because you simply can't.

No, Portland isn't tanking; they just had to move some pieces to manage the salary cap. Besides, Batum’s contract expires after this season and he becomes a restricted free agent—the Blazers would rather keep him over Wallace, given the obvious age gap. Camby is supposedly dealing with injuries, but it’s only a matter of time before his knees give out, and being 37 isn't exactly youthful. His contract next season will likely hit the $13–$14 million mark, if I recall correctly—that's a massive chunk of change.

On top of all that, the Blazers realized this roster wasn't "contender material" in the West, so they decided to offload certain players.

That's called rebuilding.

As for tanking—if you can even call it that—it's only been present in the last 6 or 7 games since they decided to let Aldridge fully recover and rest.
During that stretch, they've given opportunities to all the rookies (even Thabeet got about 20 minutes the other night) and younger bench players to see who they can actually rely on.

There's no tactical maneuvering or intentional losing happening here; the Blazers weren't among the bottom 5 or 6 teams in the league three or four weeks ago, nor are they today. They consistently hover around the 20th spot—give or take a position—and that's where they'll finish the season. Moving up or down one or two spots won't affect their next draft position one bit, yet you persistently ignore that fact—a fact that both Eric Fox7 and I have pointed out to you multiple times.

Arthur Hill2 said:Let me repeat: how could you think I don't understand the importance of home-court advantage? It seems to me you don't grasp how much Miami values it compared to how Chicago does—there is a distinct difference in how teams weigh HCA. Miami clearly views it as a smaller variable than, as I mentioned, Chicago.

A rested and ready Durant through every stage leading to the Finals >>>>>> A tired and potentially injured Durant with home-court advantage in an eventual Finals matchup against Miami 🙂

Anyway, we'll see how this plays out for the Oklahoma front office. Tonight is the first night they lack any real incentive to play, aside from that potential edge against Miami, so the ball is in their court.

Yeah, Oklahoma can certainly rest Durant tonight.
But that's not just about preserving him for the playoffs; it's because they can easily beat Sacramento without him. Sacramento is one of the worst teams in the league, and they lose constantly—their players practically want to kill each other when a teammate hits a game-winner (now *that* is a clear example of tanking).

Sure, they can rack up a win without Durant. No doubt about it.

But, in that first post—the one that prompted me to quote you—you wrote that tonight's game doesn't matter at all for Oklahoma, which is a total falsehood.

@ Arthur Hill2

They aren't fueling up. You actually got proof of that? Or are we just making things up now?

Honestly, I live for these kinds of "expert insights" pulled straight from random blogs and Twitter threads—just pure, unadulterated nonsense. 🙏🙏🙏

You're just trolling at this point, man—you're basically slapping yourself in the face. 😉

Anyway, I’m actually calling it. I'm out.

Atlanta-LAC under 193. This is one of those matchups where you honestly never know which way either team is going to swing. Just a month ago, these two were stuck in a low-scoring grind with only 178 points between them. LAC plays a completely different game on the road compared to when they're at home, too. They’re sitting in 4th place right now, but if they slip up, they could lose that crucial home-court advantage against the Grizzlies—which would be a massive headache, especially with the Madison game tomorrow. A win today would probably solve all that stress. For those feeling a bit more adventurous, I’d say go with the over, since Atlanta seems pretty locked into that 5th seed in the East.

The Boston coefficient has dropped down to 1.45 🤣

Arthur Hill2 said:The Boston spread just dropped to 1.45 🤣

Man, back home in the States we’re still sitting at a solid 2.0... lucky you. 🤣
I think your guys just got a little too aggressive with the slashing. Nobody even knows who's actually playing tonight and who's just taking a nap on the bench... 🤷
Edit:
"All Heat players are game-time decisions. Sorry, gamblers." lol

And what's the deal with Utah? Honestly, better to just stay far away from that one... 🤷

Arthur Hill2 said:The Boston coefficient just slid down to 1.45 🤣

2 @2.80 👍

wiredcanyon39 said:2 @2.80 👍

NBAonESPN The NBA on ESPN
RT @WindhorstESPN: Dwyane Wade & LeBron James doing wind sprints after long shootaround. I'd guess they're both out tonight as well.

WindhorstESPN Brian Windhorst
Chris Bosh's injury is a hamstring. He's out tonight at Boston. Said its precaution, he'll be ready for playoffs.

johnhollinger John Hollinger
Heat double-crapping on me. Give me no LBJ/Wade for my Boston visit tonight, and perhaps no games in Atl this weekend as a result.

It looks like all three are out. It’s still unconfirmed regarding the Boston game, but I am betting that at least two of them will be missing from that big "core four" lineup.

looks like Durantula is out

edit: wait, scratch that, the Lakers have some options

P.Milsap over 16.5 Favorite

Everyone is betting on Jefferson but I’m not looking to be the sucker here. It’s a massive game for both sides tonight, and if Utah wants anything from this, they need their big duo to step up—especially since Phoenix’s interior defense is basically a sieve right now. Milsap dropped 18 and 25 in his first two matchups against Phoenix. That’s plenty for me.

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans, 2 at 1.75

Bogut, Lee, Curry, and the usual suspects. Golden State is dealing with an injury bug that won't quit, so expect a ragtag lineup hitting the floor tonight. On the flip side, New Orleans has been clicking ever since Eric Gordon came back, and I think they can walk away with an easy win. Someone mentioned the Warriors might be tanking? Who knows. Maybe. Either way, it's worth a shot.

Nash over 11.5 Favorite

Frye is officially out, which means one less guy helping Nash find his lanes. He should probably carry the load tonight and hit at least 12. He’s sitting at a 12.5 average over the last two games anyway.

And yeah, I have to run two separate slips because I refuse to mix Milsap and Nash on the same ticket when they're both heavy favorites. Threw Oklahoma in there just for flavor.

The Warriors are sitting at 23-41 right now following that win against the Timberwolves. That puts them at the 8th worst record in the league. If the lottery luck actually swings our way—which, let’s be real, almost never happens—we’ll land the 8th pick, only to immediately cough it up to the Jazz.

Back in 2008, we traded that pick away for Marcus Williams (yeah, I know, total disaster), and then the Jazz ended up snagging it through the Deron Williams trade to New Jersey. So, unless we manage to snag a top-seven spot, we’re basically just handing our precious first-round pick straight to Utah on a silver platter.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:...

Obviously—this is one of those games where one team looks like they have zero intention of actually winning!🤣
Hornets +2.5 is a massive value play here.

Since today's lines aren't looking half bad, here are two more picks.

Thunder -8.5
After that absolute disaster in LA, the Thunder can't afford any more unnecessary drama—and they won't. They’re still reeling from that last outing, and with Harden sidelined, I don't see Brooks sitting his remaining veterans—who played like garbage in LA, especially Westbrook—anytime soon. They need to shake this off and get their confidence back before the playoffs hit, and this game is the perfect setup for that. Plus, they really need to keep pace with the Heat, though who knows.
What’s crucial is that Cousins is suspended tonight, which leaves the Kings way weaker—especially on the boards. Thornton was already out, so he's likely a no-show tonight too.

Jazz vs. Suns Over 202.5
Even though this is basically a playoff-intensity matchup, I don't think these teams can defend at that level. Phoenix is defensive trash, but they can easily hand 100 points to anyone. Their game is going to rely heavily on perimeter play, and the Jazz are dealing with injury issues there. On the flip side, losing Frye leaves the Suns weak inside—not that they were ever great defensively anyway—and that's exactly where the Jazz attack hits hardest. I agree with my buddy that Millsap goes over, and I'm taking Big Al too. We've seen scores of 212 and 231 in their matchups this season! I don't think Phoenix can hold them back...

The Heat are missing their Big Three, so now we just wait to see if any of the Celtics' bench players step up. Allen and Rondo are definitely out. If even one of them plays, it’s a lock for Celtics -6.5 (the Vegas line is 5.5). Sure, the Heat's overall record matters, but without their Big Three, they can barely take anyone. Chalmers and Turiaf will probably be out too. Boston’s bench has depth—they showed that recently, especially Bradley—and Boston generally defends like hell at home. Against a depleted Heat squad, they shouldn't have any trouble.

Still waiting on news regarding Atlanta. This game means nothing to them, so the Clippers—fighting for that 3rd or 4th seed in the West—should have the edge, but let's be real: this isn't a team you ever bet on to win predictably, even now.

To build on what Dana Baker2 was saying:
Logic suggests that Utah will play a cautious game, aiming for the win, which usually means tightening up the defense. However, neither team really knows how to play a grind-it-out defensive style, so I suspect we’re looking at an over here.
With that big trio gone, taking Miami under 88 feels like a pretty interesting play.
The same could be said for Sacramento under 101; that looks like a solid value bet.
On the other hand, Golden State under 96 is cutting it a bit too close for my liking.
Atlanta under 98 also sounds like a decent option.
Oh, and I've got one more parlay running.😁

@Dana Baker2/">@@Dana Baker2 where on earth did you find Hornets +2.5? I mean, aren't they supposed to be the favorites here?

What’s Westbrook's average looking like with Sacramento? He’s been playing pretty desperate lately—it's getting hard to watch. This needs to happen today, honestly. If Durant isn't on the floor, I guess it seems likely he goes over 24.5 points 🤷 thoughts?

wiredcanyon39 said:@Dana Baker2/">@@Dana Baker2, where did you even get Hornets +2.5? Aren't they supposed to be the favorites?

My bad, typo—it was -2.5.

swiftcrane823 said:What kind of average is Westbrook putting up with Sacramento lately? He’s been absolutely pathetic recently—this isn't a joke. This needs to hit today. And honestly, if Durant isn't playing, it looks like Westbrook is going over 24.5.🤷 my thoughts

I'm done betting on him. Doesn't matter who he's facing. 🙂
For what it's worth, against the Kings this season, he's put up 33, 22, and 18.
I'm banking on both him and Durant getting at least 20 minutes tonight.

EDIT: Turns out Cousins isn't suspended after all, though his status for tonight is still a question mark.

It’s been hitting me hard lately too—I’m feeling pretty torn tonight🤷

If Boston is sitting at #1 in their division and could finish at least 4th in the conference, doesn't that mean they get home-court advantage for Game 1 of the first round?🤷
Because I'm looking at the game preview on their official site right now, and it says they're still fighting for home-court advantage...

The home-field advantage is determined EXCLUSIVELY by the win count. This means you could theoretically clinch a division with 40 wins, only to face someone in the first round who finished with 41—and because they have that extra win, the home-field advantage belongs to them. 😉

Is the Warriors really going to go all out just to blow it 🙂