NBA Betting: Vol. 2

I just hit a 17.5 on Parker and 14.5 on Monroe... what do you guys think? Where am I missing the mark? :P

ruggedgull32 said:I dropped Iggy for Gortat—turns out they both ended up hitting.
A solid night...😁

You called it—Aguilera was definitely struggling from beyond the arc last night. 👍

Alex Cook said:Just placed some routine bets over at DraftKings. ☕ I'm also taking the under on the Chicago Warriors and the Charlotte Hornets in a double at DraftKings. It was a solid night—I have a good feeling about this one. ☕

Here's one for you. 👍 Listen, mr. Ćirohito.

Everyone else seems to be winning—meanwhile, I’m just standing here playing the fool, stuck watching from the sidelines despite being absolutely certain about my position. 🤦

The term "panderas" doesn't really hold much weight here—it’s just noise. says:
At least the lead made it through—barely. 😁

These two are just over the line. 🙂

I told you—Johnson would end up scoring more. 🧐

And you’re in the same boat—you're betting on the guy who made you famous on this forum in the first place. haer. 🙄

Looking at today's slate, the matchup between Detroit and Cleveland is actually worth watching. I’m not entirely sure what possessed the Pistons last night to pull that win over the Bulls—they’re sitting right there with four or five other teams with the exact same record. Honestly, they’d be better off playing the numbers and taking a few losses if it means boosting their odds for a better pick.
A rebuild is inevitable anyway.

Cleveland’s score is hovering around the same level as the Pistons—except they actually manage to lose their games.
I'll be damned if we don't pull off an away win tonight—especially since the odds are sitting at a sweet 3.60 on DraftKings.

Looking at the most realistic matchups, a Memphis victory seems like the play here. They really ought to be gunning for that fourth seed—and the home-court advantage that comes with it—in what will likely be a series against the Clippers (or maybe the Lakers, though I wouldn't count on them falling that far). Memphis has been coasting through their last six games—with the exception of tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota is currently sitting on a ten-game losing streak and is playing without their three best players this season; clearly, they’re just cruising toward a better draft pick next year, and honestly, they probably wouldn't be much better even if they actually tried. If my memory serves, Memphis still has to face Cleveland, the Charlotte Hornets, Portland, and Orlando to close out the season. They should sweep through those, which would easily put them ahead of the Clippers—who have a brutal schedule ahead and look like they could drop two or three more games before things wrap up.

Given how things are looking, Memphis is going to push hard in these upcoming games—home-court advantage carries massive weight in the playoffs.

At 1.45, I think the Stanley odds on Memphis are actually quite solid; should be an easy win.

Wondering why the Sacramento Kings are struggling?

Check out this clip—starting at the 56-second mark—to see how Thortonov's teammates reacted after he drained that game-winner. 🤣

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtqPLQhkRsw&t

The betting lines against the Kings should be interesting to watch over the next few games. 😬

James Taylor3 said:So, everyone’s acting shocked by this Sacramento losing streak? Really? Give me a break.

Check out this clip starting at the 0:56 mark—you gotta see how Thortonov's teammates reacted after he drained that game-winner. Total madness. 🤣

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtqPLQhkRsw&t

The betting odds against the Kings in their upcoming matchups are gonna be pretty interesting to watch. 😬

Haha!
He actually had to pull the guy on the other team aside just to explain how he "put the ball in"... Seriously?🤣
Hey James Taylor3, what’s your take on Gay over 19.5 tonight? If Gasol is out, the whole load falls on him. What do you think?🤷

ruggedgull32 said:James Taylor3—what’s your take on Gay over 19.5 tonight? If Gasol is out, the whole load falls on his shoulders.🤷

Gay could really put up some numbers tonight—he’s looking sharp.

Once again, Memphis is stacked—they have plenty of guys capable of dropping 20+ points on any given night without breaking a sweat. You’ve got Mayo and Conley, plus their best player, Zach Randolph, who is finally shaking off the rust after a long layoff; it's pretty clear they're grooming him for a deep playoff run. He might just have a breakout game tonight. On the flip side, Peković is a defensive liability—if he actually tries to play physical, he'll pick up three fouls in the first five minutes and be headed straight to the bench, much like his performance last season.

I see that Gay is putting up 21, 19, and 19 points this season—despite some mediocre shooting percentages—all while Randolph hasn't even stepped onto the court.

I’m not sure—Gay might be an option to bet on, but he isn't exactly the only one capable of delivering a solid performance in series. I’d probably just steer clear of him, though—most of the stats seem to point toward the over anyway.

Hey, can someone please tell me who's currently sitting on the longest winning streak for overs?? thanks 🙂

Scott Jackson said:man, can someone please tell me who’s currently riding the biggest over streak?? thanks 🙂

From what I can see, it's Dirk—he's sitting on a 3-game over streak right now...
Meanwhile, derrick williams is deep in the unders, so he's probably looking at a solid 6 or 7 game stretch of that 😁

James Taylor3 said:Regarding today's slate, the matchup between Detroit and Cleveland is actually quite interesting. I honestly don't know what possessed the Pistons to pull that win against the Bulls last night. There are at least four or five other teams sitting right there with the exact same record; it would probably be smarter for them to just play the odds, lose some games, and boost their chances at a better draft pick.
A rebuild is their priority regardless.

Detroit lost in overtime to the Bulls the night before last, and then they went ahead and dropped one to the Wizards tonight. 🙂

Arthur Hill2 said:Detroit lost in overtime to the Bulls the night before last, then they went ahead and let the Wizards take them tonight 🙂

I messed up—yeah.

I was thinking about how hard they fought against the Bulls—they were actually in it until the final buzzer. 😁

Scott Jackson said:seriously guys, can someone please just tell me who's on the biggest over streak right now?? thanks 🙂

I'm pretty sure gay is sitting on a 4-game heater right now, but hey, there aren't really any official rules for this kind of thing, right? 🤷, but if we're actually talking about pure form, then Granger is the absolute king—he hasn't dipped below 18 points in his last 12 games straight! ☕

Roger Phillips said:If you ask me, Dirk... three wins too many...
d. Williams is definitely hitting the under. I’m calling it now... he’ll probably land around 6 or 7 points...😁

Thanks, but I already know that lunatic is staying under... and honestly, Griffin is playing like absolute garbage right now.

stormyseal9 said:I think Dirk is on a hot four-game streak, though there aren't really any set rules for this kind of thing...🤷but when it comes to pure form, Granger is king. He hasn't dropped below 18 points in his last 12 games.☕

Nah, I think there are definitely patterns here. It’s incredibly rare for someone to consistently hit the over five games in a row... right?

Hey there!

I've been hanging out here for a little while now, and honestly, I think this is such a killer spot to find some legit advice, sharp opinions, and actually useful info.
Huge props to everyone for putting in the work and keeping the energy up!

Anyway, let me throw my two cents into the ring...

Philadelphia (h-3.5) - Indiana 2 1.85

We’re looking at a total clash of two teams that play almost identically! They both really lean on gritty defense and grabbing those boards, but if we're being real, Indiana just looks like the better squad right now.
Looking at the numbers, PHI has dropped their last three at home, going 3-7 in their last ten. Meanwhile, IND is absolutely tearing it up on the road with four straight wins!
Over their last five games, IND is giving up 2 fewer points on average per game, while PHI is giving up 10 more.
Also, check this out regarding the B2B schedule—IND covers the spread 6-3 on the road after playing at home, whereas PHI is sitting at 0-3 at home following an away game.

And don't forget the Playoff race is heating up!
PHI is currently sitting in eighth, tied up with the New York Knicks, who actually have the edge in head-to-head matchups. But hey, Milwaukee is only two games behind, and they're heading to PHI on the 25th.
So yeah, the pressure is definitely mounting on them.
On top of that, there's all this chatter that coach Collins and the players aren't exactly seeing eye-to-eye lately.

IND is sitting in third and they are on fire! They are fighting hard to lock down that third seed and secure that sweet home-court advantage for the Playoffs. "Everything we do is geared toward winning in the playoffs," Vogel said. "And the first step is getting homecourt advantage."

I really don't see them taking any easy nights or resting the big guns here.
It's also worth noting that none of the starters played more than 26 minutes yesterday, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue for anyone.
Regarding Collison's injury, expect Hill to step into the starting lineup instead.

- Hibbert definitely has the upper hand over the shorter, weaker, and older Brand.
With Hawes providing the only real substitute for him, IND has four heavy hitters in their rotation. I'm banking on them dominating the paint.
Iguodala, Holiday & Meeks are lightning fast, but even though it's their fourth game in five days, IND hasn't burned themselves out too much and has the deeper rotation advantage.
All this points to a slower pace since both squads love to play lockdown defensive basketball.

Scott Jackson said:but if you ask me, there are definitely patterns here, because I mean, it’s insanely rare for someone to hit the over five games in a row... right?

everything just depends on who they're playing against, plus you've got certain players who just chuck a ton of shots, so it's totally logical that they end up scoring more,🤷take Bryant out of the equation for a second and you see how Bynum rarely takes fewer than 20 shots now, whereas he used to max out at around 15, obviously he’ll have an off night because he isn't some damn robot, but 90% of the time he’s going over, and then you look at Granger, he's taking more or less the same amount of shots as before, but his shooting average has improved, and that's the key difference right there, and even those times he was putting up 18 points was mostly because he was sitting on the bench half the game, so instead of grinding out 40 minutes he was maybe only getting 25+, plus you've got teams that just fit a player's style regardless of their season average, so a guy might have a lower overall average but still consistently drops huge numbers, like Bryant Phoenix who is constantly dropping 40+ or Henderson playing for Boston where they're famous for having maybe the best defense in the league, so he hits the over without breaking a sweat every single time, it’s not all just raw statistics, man, there are so many moving parts that have to align perfectly, otherwise wouldn't it be enough to just glance at the stats and hit every single bet?🤷.

Cheers, James Howard63. Come on in. 😁

Keep doing exactly what you're doing. 👍

stormyseal9 said:it all depends on the matchup. Some players just take more shots, so logically they score more🤷. Take Bryant, for example. With him out, Bynum is taking way more than 20 shots, whereas he used to cap it at around 15. Sure, he’s human and can have an off night, but 90% of the time, he's hitting the over. Granger is taking similar volume, but his efficiency has improved, and that's the key difference. Those games where he only dropped 18 points were mostly because he was resting—playing 25 minutes instead of 40. Then you've got teams that suit certain players perfectly regardless of their averages. You might see someone with a lower average still pumping points, like Bryant Phoenix who consistently drops 40+, or Henderson in Boston, where they play such lockdown defense that he hits the over without breaking a sweat. Stats don't tell the whole story. If it were that simple, everyone would just look at the numbers and win every time🤷.

Yeah, obviously. I'm totally with you on that. It's just that, for some weird reason of my own—call it the "law of the under"—I hate betting a player over if they've already hit three overs in a row... 🙂 That's it. Everything you said is spot on, and hey, come at me, I'm ready for the analysis... but I've got a gut feeling against the spread here. I think Philly is fired up and they're going to pull this off and cover the spread. Just a hunch. We'll see who's right... 🙂

Scott Jackson said:Man, obviously, I am totally with you on that, but look, for some weird reason of my own—let’s call it the "Under Law"—I just can't bring myself to bet a player over if they’ve already hit, say, three overs in a row... 🙂 And that’s really it. Everything you laid out is spot on, and hey, come at me, analyze me all you want, but I’ve got a gut feeling against the spread here... because I honestly think Philly is fired up and they're going to pull this off and cover that spread. It's just a vibe, you know? We'll see who gets it right... 🙂

I hear you, there's definitely something to that, but you know how it goes—when someone is playing out of their mind, we always assume they'll keep that momentum going into the next one, and then boom, they bust 😍. Just look at Lawson; I’ve been tracking him, and like 90% of the time, if he puts up a massive game, the very next one is an under, but then yesterday, just to mess with my head, he went hard again! You can never truly know because a coach might just bench a guy, or suddenly there are foul trouble issues or injuries, and everything changes. Like graniteotter6 said, sometimes you just have to play based on pure instinct 🤷. It drives me crazy because the ones I second-guess and pass on end up hitting, while the ones I confidently put down just fall flat 🤷

Hello everyone,
with the Playoffs right around the corner, here are my picks for today.
NYK-Boston 2
Pierce - Over
Carmelo Anthony - Over
It’s very likely Rondo will have a big night, but when he's sitting on the bench, we just have to hope Pierce goes over his total. I'm skeptical about Garnett, though; they'll probably keep him fresh, especially since this game is such a huge deal for the Knicks. It should be a great matchup.

Michelle Ruiz5 said:Hey everyone,
with the Playoffs looming, here’s my take
NYK-Boston 2
Pierce - Over
Carmelo Anthony - Over
It's highly likely Rondo shows up tonight—but when he's riding the bench, we just have to hope Pierce delivers. I wouldn't bet on Garnett; they'll probably keep him fresh, especially since this one matters more for the Knicks. Expect a solid matchup.

I don't really follow basketball or the NBA very well... could someone explain why you're picking these specific pairs and what "Playoffs" actually entails? Thanks.

What’s the move tonight? I was thinking New York and Indiana victories, Memphis over 101.5, and Bynum 20.5 over... you think there's any actual juice in that?