NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Woke up this morning and saw Washington is already under 87.5... How on earth are they supposed to hit that mark? What do you guys think?

Frank Morgan30 said:So, I woke up this morning and saw Washington sitting under 87.5... honestly, I don't see how they even touch that line. What’s your take?

👍

Phoenix should be an easy enough win against Portland, even if the odds aren't huge. Portland had a rough, shaky one last night against the Kings—they actually blew a massive lead in the final seconds, just totally choked it away. For the Suns, it’s really a question of whether they show up or not. Nash will probably suit up, so we're looking at a full squad against a Blazers team missing Aldridge, Felton, Okur, and those two Williams guys. 🙂

I’m also leaning toward Philly. They’ve got some debts to collect from Orlando, who’s going to be shorthanded tonight without Howard and Turkoglu—and it looks like they might be missing Dwight Davis too. That leaves a pretty massive hole in their paint.

The rest of my picks are still up in the air...

Experts, what’s your take on Granger over 18.5?

Had a good laugh seeing Griffin at 20.5.🤣
I don't trust this guy at all. No way he clears 9 field goals, which means he won't hit 18 points.
And expecting him to sink more than two free throws is pure delusion. He’s bottom tier in that department.
Plus, he's got a brutal matchup, and there are way too many ball hogs on this roster.

Easy under 20.5. DraftKings 8 / 10. ☕

I guess that Griffin has been really focused on hitting a very specific margin lately

I gotta vent about these absolute jokes of coaches in the NBA. I seriously don't get why they can't just call a timeout when they're up by three on the final possession. It started last night with the Detroit coach, and then you've got that clown on the Heat bench—I just can't wrap my head around it. Honestly, they need to go back to coaching school over in Europe or something. And of course, both teams that gave up those threes ended up blowing it in OT.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I honestly have to address the absolute comedy routine going on with some of these NBA coaches—I just don't get it. Why aren't they calling a timeout when they're up by three on a final possession? You look at the coach for Detroit last night, then you look at that clown sitting on the Heat bench a few days ago... it’s baffling. Honestly, they probably need to head over to Europe for some basic coaching clinics. And of course, both teams that surrendered those threes ended up losing in OT.

Like I’ve already said once before:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...Wdbr5IE#t=397s

What does that even have to do with my post? That kind of thing happens once in a blue moon, but we’re seeing three-pointers at the buzzer almost every single week. It’s such a shame we couldn't close it out last night. But hey, they finally got a new owner, and I guess the guys decided to show exactly what the man paid for.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I honestly can't wrap my head around the absolute joke of coaching we see in the NBA lately. Why on earth wouldn't you call a foul when you're up by three on a final possession? Between what the Detroit coach did last night and that clown sitting on the Heat bench the other day, I’m baffled. They seriously need to go back to basics or maybe take some coaching clinics over in Europe. And of course, both teams that gave up those threes ended up losing in overtime.

Well, it seems like an unwritten rule for them—you don't intentionally foul when you've got a three-point lead; you just try to play defense and hope for the best. I was actually pretty shocked when I first learned that was how they operated a few years back.

I'm back, and I have to say, I'm pretty happy with how things turned out.
I've just been lurking here for the last few days instead of playing.
I did get some action in yesterday, though. Memphis 🙄
Naturally, that was my one slip-up.
I'll throw you guys a bone later today—a solid analysis that should hold up, once I've had a moment to scope out the opposition.
The key word here is momentum.

Is anyone even looking at the Suns vs. Blazers game tonight?

The 1.45 odds seem massive—especially considering how hard the Blazers worked last night, plus they’re missing Aldridge and a few others... blah, blah, blah.
Phoenix has already dismantled Portland twice at home this season—once by 25 points and once by 38—and that was when the Blazers were actually contending in the West.

With Batum and Felton out today, it’s basically a total tank. And who knows what the situation is with Crawford.

The moneyline is sitting at 1.45, while the spread sits at 1.70.

The Suns are fighting for a playoff spot; they need this win, and everything points toward it happening.
I hate being the guy to say it, but this feels like a lock.

Even the -6.5 handicap in Stanley doesn't look bad. 😁

EDIT: Just as I finished typing this, the odds dropped—moneyline is down to 1.25, and the spread is at 1.50. 😠

Wait, where the hell did that 1.45 figure come from?

I was checking USA just five minutes ago, and I think they're sitting at Stanley 1.40 now. Plus, they’re the only ones offering a -6.5 handicap—everywhere else, you're looking at -9.5 or even -10.5.

I think I'll take the over on that. ☕

Anyone else thinking about how Atlanta might just start tanking to leapfrog Orlando and snag that Indiana pick instead of Boston? They looked totally checked out on the court against Toronto last night, so I wouldn't be shocked if they drop another one tonight against the same squad. The home team at 2.6 odds... honestly, tempting.

James Taylor3 said:Is nobody talking about the Suns vs. Portland game tonight?

🙂

Already locked in some action at 1.45, bundled with that Washington under 87.5 that dominium was rambling about...

Now I'm just sitting here mulling over...
that Blake Griffin under 20.5 you guys have (assuming they haven't dropped the line yet)
John Wall under 15.5 (because let's be real, I doubt Rose is gonna let him run wild in his territory),
plus my buddy...🤣
Joe Johnson under 17.5 (honestly, just look at his stat line from last night... 31 mins, went 1-for-6 from two, 1-for-6 from three... finished 2-for-12 with 7 points; also, I don't know if anyone remembers how much these guys were icing him toward the end of last season, and they're in a similar spot now given how the playoff race looks: http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html ...so, looking at the bracket, they face Boston in the first round, and Magic plays Indiana; man, if they actually end up against Boston, they might try to put in some effort against HCA in the opening round, but regardless of last night's loss, I'm not sure how much they're gonna burn themselves out tonight before this brutal stretch of five home games starts the day after tomorrow against the Pistons, then it's Boston on Friday, followed by the Knicks, Clippers, and Mavs—brutal schedule; so, I'm just not seeing Joe Johnson, who clearly can't buy a bucket lately, really going nuts and blowing past this margin to catch up to a hot J.R. Smith; he's only cleared that bar once in his last six games, and even then, it was a struggle 🤷 )

edit: looks like Lawrence Castillo76 is thinking the same thing regarding the Hawks 😬

analoghound21 said:🙂

The bet was already placed at @1.45, including that Washington, D.C. under 87.5 that dominium mentioned...

You could have warned me this morning—I might have actually made it to the sportsbook to place it, rather than this.

By the time I finished my errands and hit up Stanley, they clearly caught on and moved the line to 9.5, so I passed. 🙂 🙂

Though even at -9.5, it shouldn't be much of an issue. 🤷

If you can't pick your buddy Johnson, nobody can. 🤣

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Has anyone considered how Atlanta might start tanking just to let Orlando pass them, ensuring they pick Indiana over Boston? They showed exactly what they're capable of against Toronto last night; I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to the same opponent tonight, especially with those home odds sitting at 2.6.

It’s possible. Quite possible.

I also spent some time looking over Philly's schedule through the end of the season this morning.
They have a decent run ahead of them—half playoff contenders, half bottom-feeders.

I suspect they’d much rather face the Bulls in the playoffs than the Heat. They managed one win against the Bulls this year and lost twice—nothing major—whereas the Heat absolutely dismantled them in all four matchups this season, not to mention crushing them in the playoffs last year. 🤷

They’ll probably prefer being the 8th seed facing the Bulls over being the 7th seed staring down Miami. 🤷

Now, Milwaukee is two games behind Philly currently, though they do have a game in hand, while the Knicks are only half a game back.

With six or seven games left, it’s a bit early to start calculating tactics—you don't want that coming back to bite you—but by the final two or three rounds, they might start playing the numbers. I'll keep an eye on that.

None of this matters if they can't catch Atlanta (who, by the way, might be calculating things too) or Orlando (who knows how they'll finish without Howard and a few others), but catching them looks tough given the 3.5-game gap.

Tonight’s matchup against Orlando will clarify things, which should help in mapping out the next few rounds. 😁

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Has anyone actually sat down and considered the possibility that Atlanta might start tanking just to let Orlando leapfrog them? It would allow them to secure a better pick, perhaps eyeing Indiana instead of Boston. They certainly looked like they were going through the motions during last night's game against Toronto. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped another one tonight against the same team—the odds are sitting at 2.6 for the home side, which is quite intriguing.

I find that hard to swallow. They aren't just going to let Orlando pass them by, especially after they absolutely dismantled them in Orlando just a few days ago. In my opinion, those theories don't really hold much water.

Chicago-Washington under 188.5 points

I’m taking this one. Their last five matchups all stayed under this line. Seems like a pattern that'll hold up again.

Utah-Dallas spread -3.5. I've got 2 units on this. Utah is dealing with six players out, while Dallas has their full roster ready to go. Sure, Utah "needs" this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, but it won't be easy. Dallas isn't about to hand up their sixth seed when the Denver Nuggets are breathing down their necks.

What are your thoughts? ☕

James Taylor3 said:You could've given me a heads-up this morning so I could've sprinted over to the gas station to place my bet, instead of doing it like this.

Look, I put this post up at 11 AM. Honestly, the fact that you don't even bother reading my stuff is just... it's something else entirely...🙂

If you can't pick your buddy Johnson, then nobody's gonna pick him. 🤣

Seriously, stop tracking my every move. I want to go down in peace on my own... ☕

gaucho77 said:Yeah, right. Like they'll just let Orlando pass them by when they absolutely crushed them in Orlando just a few days ago. I don't think your logic holds much water.

Unless Orlando basically decided to commit suicide on the court, anyway...🙂

James Taylor3, did they switch it from 6.5 up to 9.5 at the Stanley arena? I didn't quite catch what you were getting at there!

So, wouldn't that actually be too much for the heavy hitters? 🤷