NBA Betting: Vol. 2

rapidhound19 said:They just bumped Jamison's line up to 20.5 points over at DraftKings.

I'm done playing today!🙂
Clearly you have to get your bets in by 1:00 or 2:00 PM latest if you want anything decent.

A. Jamison (Cleveland) (18.5) at WWIN (Williams)
but then you have T. Evans (Sacramento) (15.5)
only DraftKings is offering T. Evans (Sacramento) at 17.5

Dana Baker2 said:I’m definitely sitting this one out!🙂
Clearly, you gotta get your bets in by 1 or 2 at the latest if you want any chance.

😂

Whatever, man, it's all relative... just a mess no matter how you slice it. 🤣

Anyway, regarding betting on player props, I've realized waiting around doesn't usually pay off. Most of the time, the books just correct those "too good to be true" lines—you know, the ones where the margin was slightly off—and suddenly your parlay loses all its value. It's a headache. Like that whole Monroe vs. Howard situation yesterday—total chaos, though it worked out okay in the end 😬—but look, I don't just pick things based on one single stat. I try to look at the bigger picture, especially when the stakes are actually high.

Dana Baker2 said:Panda, Tsigi, what’s the verdict on Jamison? Lawrence Castillo76 thinks he won't hit the over again.😁
I don't see anyone else on this Cleveland roster capable of scoring besides him—not with Irving gone.
Plus, the matchup isn't exactly a disaster.🙂

No clue—I haven't really been following Cleveland this season. But without Irving, he's likely going to hunt his own shot, which is his bread and butter. Charlotte doesn't have much of a defense, so an over is possible—but then again, don't take my word for it.

It looks like Rose might be sidelined tonight.

Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose was seen in a walking boot on Monday following an ankle injury sustained during Sunday's matchup against the New York Knicks. Per league sources, his availability for Tuesday night's rematch remains uncertain.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story...ay-source-says

Rose might be sitting this one out tonight:

K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop Close
John Paxson told WMVP, the Bulls' main radio station, that D-Rose is dealing with some soreness and they aren't willing to take any unnecessary risks with him.

It’s a minor injury, just like I mentioned earlier. If we were heading straight into the playoffs, he’d definitely be out there, but right now, the weight of this decision falls squarely on his shoulders and the coach's. They don't have a game tomorrow, but they do have that matchup against the Heat the day after. Personally, I suspect he'll suit up, likely playing strictly controlled minutes.

Can anyone else weigh in on Williams over 20.5? Because honestly, looking at Jamison's 20.5 line right now... I'm not feeling it anymore.
Wallace is a lock to be out, and Green is a game-time decision—sounds like some oral surgery drama, maybe a wisdom tooth or something, who knows. They're basically the Nets' entire scoring punch alongside Williams, yet I still don't buy that Philly, in this kind of form, can just walk in and steamroll them on the road.🤷

Dana Baker2 said:Can anyone else weigh in on Williams over 20.5? I don't know, I'm starting to lose my nerve on that 20.5 line for Jamison too.

I’d say it’s basically a coin flip, maybe 55-45 in favor of the over. Even though Philly’s been playing pretty rough lately, they still put in work on defense—they're actually ranked 11th in the league when it comes to guarding the point guard spot. Plus, with Wallace out, Deron might get a few extra looks at the rim. That said, if we do hit the over, I don't see it blowing past 22 or 23. For me, anything higher than that is probably a no-bet.

Dana Baker2 said:Once again, I’m sitting this one out!🙂
It’s pretty obvious you gotta get your bets in by 1 or 2 at the absolute latest if you want any chance.

Honestly, you should just get your money down as early as possible if you can swing it, because once later in the day rolls around, those margins and odds start jumping all over the place constantly🤷,so I usually just lock mine in by 11 AM and then I don't have to stress about it anymore😍,though before that, I'll take a quick look to see if anyone's on the injury report or looking questionable, but man, there's no real science to that since you never know which player is gonna wake up feeling like garbage🤷,you definitely need a massive amount of luck combined with keeping a close eye on things, obviously, but I’d say the first guy has a 70% edge here☕

K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
The silver lining here is that Derrick Rose mentioned his groin feels "fine." #Bulls
25m K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Rose: "It’s nothing more than an ankle sprain. I’m hoping to be past this in a few days." #Bulls
25m K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Rose: "You know my mentality: if it's a tight game or a matchup I really want to win, I'm staying on the floor. I ended up aggravating it." #Bulls
33m K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Rose noted the injury started impacting him during the fourth quarter and overtime. He claims he's a game-time decision and is "certain" to return before the season wraps up.
42m K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Coach Thibodeau stated Rose is a game-time decision. He noted the injury occurred in the second quarter after landing on a player's foot. #Bulls

It appears he might be able to suit up, though I have my doubts. He isn't the type to push himself right before the playoffs. My stance remains unchanged: take the Knicks +9.5 and the Caramelo over.

I find myself pondering the current state of affairs regarding our roster—what do you all honestly think about keeping the Knicks or going with Deng? I’m torn on which direction we should actually commit to here.

Joshua Peterson56 said:What’s the consensus on the Knicks vs. Suns matchup? Who should we be looking at for the spread?

Before you even consider betting on the Knicks, you have to realize that Durant is playing with a torn ligament in his shooting hand.

Man, I just realized Deng is out there playing through an injury too... :S

I’ve been playing him and Jamison way too much lately.

In the end, I’m just going with my gut—going to wait a bit longer before making a call...
Anyway, those odds were absolute garbage.🙂

NJN - Wallace is out. He's a game-time decision.

DAL - Kidd is playing.

As for Rose... I don't see him taking the floor.

Drew Palmer66 said:NJN - Wallace is out. Green is a game-time decision.

DAL - Kidd is playing.

As for Rose, I don't see him hitting the floor tonight...

Green is out too... tooth issues.
Deron’s gonna have to go absolutely nuclear tonight...😁

I decided to take Deron in my matchup against Pierco. I’ve got a feeling Deron is destined to go over his line, while Pierco is banking on LeBron James to keep him suppressed—hopefully he can hold him under the 20-point mark.

Arthur Hill2 said:I went with Deron in my head-to-head against Pierca. Seems like Deron is "destined" to go over, and since LBJ is guarding him, he'll probably keep him stuck under 20.

So Bones, what’s your take on LBJ under 27.5 if things flip? Wade looks like a lock to play, and if they end up finishing this game with such a low score, there's no way LBJ hits the over either. He's only hit the over 4 times in his last 16 games—that's 25%. Not exactly looking like a sure thing...🤷>

ruggedgull32 said:Hey, Arthur Hill2, what’s your take on hitting the under 27.5 for LBJ? If that doesn't land, what are we even looking at? I mean, look at Wade—he looks like a lock to go over, right? But if these guys decide to turn this game into some low-scoring defensive grind, there's no way he's hitting his over either. I was checking the stats, and man, out of his last 16 games, he only cleared the over four times. That's like 25%, which isn't exactly a winning streak, is it?🤷

I mean, sure, you could look at it that way if you really want to be dense, but let’s get real for a second—you have to account for the fact that elite players are always going up against heavy hitters, not some bottom-feeder like Charlotte where they can just coast with half an ounce of effort and still walk away with a win, right? It’s not like that! And don't even get me started on how the Celtics absolutely dismantled them recently; you honestly think they just shook it off and moved on like nothing happened? No way, man, I refuse to believe they've forgotten that humiliation!🤷Look, just take a second and actually look at his best performances, okay? If you really sit down and watch them, you’ll notice he’s almost always going up against the absolute heavyweights. And honestly, isn't that just how the game works? I mean, who wouldn't want to prove themselves by taking down a powerhouse like the Lakers or the Celtics? Those teams are basically legends in the NBA, total icons, so if you're trying to make a name for yourself, you go after the big dogs!☕

I recall hearing some stats suggesting that LeBron holds the highest scoring average whenever he faces off against the Celtics. However, I generally avoid betting on the over for any of the big three players if all three are active on the court. My preference shifts toward the under when matchups like Bosh versus Garnett present themselves, much like my position today.

Allow me to share my picks for the next 12 hours, which I believe hold significant value:

Knicks +9.5
Car Melo over 25
Bosh under 17
Deron in his matchup against Pier-- wait, let's look at Deron facing Pierce

Good luck to everyone this evening.👋