NBA Betting: Vol. 2

It's just not worth betting on the NBA at 1.20 odds...

Edward Brown4 said:Date Pos Player Injury Status
04/09/12 F/C Tim Duncan Rest "?" Monday vs. Utah
04/09/12 G/F Manu Ginobili Rest "?" Monday vs. Utah
04/09/12 PG Tony Parker Rest "?" Monday vs. Utah

Is this a done deal or what?

It looks like Odom is officially moving on from Dallas!

Why on earth isn't Dwight Howard playing?
What's the deal with Kobe, and what in the world is going on with the Spurs? 😁

People are questioning if Batum is gonna get subbed out for Jamal Crawford, and man, look at this tweet from Jamal: "Must win 2nite!" lol what a guy. On the flip side, Houston gets Lowery back on Friday, and that’s only two days away—plus, Dragic has basically become untouchable and is a lock for Player of the Week in the West. Here’s his take: "Thank you guys!!!! I couldn't do it without my teammates. Let's get to the playoffs." Honestly, I hate playing Portland at home, but I’ll probably have to take the average 3.5 spread on the road. Won't go overboard though; gotta save some cash just in case it turns out the Spurs trio is out, or at least two of them.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:There’s some serious doubt swirling about Batum's role if he doesn't step up to take over for Jamal, and honestly, looking at Jamal Crawford's recent tweet, the guy is clearly feeling it: "Must win 2nite!"... about 26 minutes ago, haha. On the flip side, Houston is getting Lowry back this Friday—and on a Tuesday, no less—while Dragic has essentially become untouchable. He's easily a Player of the Week contender for the West at this point. Check out his own words: "Thank you guys!!!! I couldn't do it without my teammates. Let's get to the playoffs." Now, even though I absolutely loathe playing against Portland, I'll probably have to lay down a 3.5 average on the spread for the away game. I don't want to get too greedy; I need to protect my bankroll in case those rumors about the Spurs' big three being sidelined—or at least two of them—actually turn out to be true.

What on earth is going on with the Spurs?

Bradley Kern6 said:What's the deal with the Spurs?

Still a total toss-up. We might find out right before tip-off. It's hard for me to buy the idea that all three of them are sitting out at once, though one of them definitely won't be playing.

I didn't turn up anything regarding their injuries

It’s not even about injuries; it’s just the coach deciding to sit them, which isn't exactly a new move this season. But hey, if he keeps doing that, these guys are gonna be feeling their age sooner than we think.

I honestly don't know, but I’ve been staring at these lines for a while, and looking at Gasol for over 14.5 points at +105 on DraftKings... it just feels like one of those situations where you can't quite shake the feeling that things might go sideways...

Wait, what letter comes after the last name??? For crying out loud...

I suppose I’m putting my foot in my mouth again... :-)

Eric Smith: Bargnani isn't gonna suit up for the #Raptors

Collison is dealing with a groin injury and is sidelined for the #Pacers. Expect Arthur Hill2 to step into the starting lineup instead.

There might be something worth looking at regarding the Spurs, just waiting for the right moment to place my bet.

The Minnesota Timberwolves take it! A solid 2-1 victory. It’s like finding that perfect extra nugget in the bag—unexpectedly great and exactly what you needed to see.
Minnesota looks like they’re just going through the motions lately. In that last matchup, Smith and Kaman absolutely dominated the boards against Peković and Love. Meanwhile, things are heating up big time for the Suns as they push for the playoffs!

Rest in peace to that 2011/2012 Timberwolves squad. A total heartbreak!

With five straight losses now—including that fourth one against a team with zero chance of making the playoffs—Minnesota has officially checked out. They clearly don't care about the season anymore, so I’m checking out too. Why waste precious time analyzing this mess? There is way too much action happening across the league right now to sit around watching Love and Pekovic let themselves get outplayed by players with half their talent.

That loss to the Hornets was really the breaking point. It was painful watching Love get absolutely dismantled by Jason Smith. An MVP candidate simply can't let a rotation player—especially a pick-and-pop specialist who can hold his own defending both bigs—bully him like that. Those 29 points from Love? Just window dressing. They don't hide the embarrassment of Smith dropping 26 on him while shooting a ridiculous 75%.

Once you realize Pekovic let Kaman letting him run wild like that, it’s obvious why the Wolves were doomed. It wasn't just about giving Smith and Kaman wide-open looks all night long—the real kicker was letting them dominate the glass. Without any edge in rebounding, Minnesota simply doesn't have the tools to beat anyone.

Watching this without even a shred of grit or professionalism makes it feel like you're sitting front row at a WWE match. I honestly can't wrap my head around why the front office lets such hard-earned credibility go down the drain like this. Sure, things are brutal right now—dealing with Pekovic's issues, missing Rubio and Reddick, and having a roster full of G-League rejects—but a lack of fire and willpower can only be explained by one thing: they're tanking.

It would be much easier to accept their season if they could actually influence their draft position, but that pick has been sitting with the Hornets for ages. Honestly, they might even be in a better spot than Minnesota right now. They’ve got superior depth with guys like Vasquez, Ayon, and Smith, plus they have twice the salary cap breathing room to make moves. Between those two lottery picks and keeping Eric Gordon via Bird rights, they could build a legitimate young core practically overnight.

Minnesota’s only real shot at landing a decent draft pick rests on Utah actually making the playoffs. If they do, the Timberwolves could snag that 15th or 16th spot—just enough to breathe some fresh life into the roster for next season. Since Utah has lottery protection, they should be safe; it’s tough to climb into that 8th seed when you're staring down the likes of Houston, Denver, and a deep Suns squad.

Looking at it this way, missing out on a top-tier lottery pick in such a loaded draft might actually be the catalyst this team needs. Since they can't rely on a rookie phenom, the pressure is entirely on finding solid starters through free agency—and that’s going to be an uphill battle. Between a lukewarm market and tight constraints, things look tricky. If they don't blow their budget on some nonsensical long-term deal this summer, they might have about $20 million to play with in 2013. But after that? Once those big contracts for guys like Al Horford or Rajon Rondo kick in, the breathing room vanishes.

It looks like that short-term deal for Love was actually a brilliant strategic move. It keeps their cap space flexible enough to hunt for a star who can truly utilize that franchise max they’re sitting on—especially since guys like Peković and Rubio are decent starters, but carry massive question marks. Honestly, pairing Love with Peković is like trying to build a house without any foundation; you just don't get that rim protection you need. And let's be real: trying to assemble a championship roster without a lockdown presence in the paint is an uphill battle.

To balance out his lack of scoring, Rubio is going to need two elite shooters by his side at all times—it’s like trying to fix a broken engine with just tape. Honestly, it's hard to justify paying franchise money to a guy who struggles to crack double digits in scoring. Practically speaking, the Timberwolves are stuck hunting for fringe All-Star talent. With limited opportunities ahead—they'll likely be a playoff team next year, which means losing that crucial high draft pick—they look like the textbook definition of a mid-tier team stuck in neutral. Their only real moves are swapping core players or hitting the reset button entirely, which might happen in three seasons when Love hits his early exit option.

Sure, we can dissect their season and potential, but with less than three weeks left and only about ten games per team on the schedule, my eyes are strictly on the playoffs. It isn't just about the race for those final seeds; it's about watching how the heavy hitters try to build momentum before the real battle begins.

Nothing's happening for the Spurs before 2:00. I just don't see it going down.

It’d be a lot better if they stopped posting these picks before 8 or 9 AM. Most of us are playing online anyway. When they drop them this early, the lines just get crowded—and I’m looking at DraftKings right now, half the odds have already tanked since this morning because everyone jumped on. Besides, you can always find some solid last-minute info right before tip-off.

Dana Baker2 said:It’d be a hell of a lot better if people stopped posting picks here before 8 or 9 AM. Most of us are playing online anyway. When they drop early like this, the lines start getting crowded immediately. I’m looking at the spreads right now and half the odds at DraftKings have already tanked since this morning because everyone jumped on them. Besides, you never know—some crucial insider info might drop at the very last second.

Do you seriously think this forum is what's moving the betting lines? 🙂🙂🙂

placidranger19 said:Wait, you actually think odds shift because of some random online forum? 🙂🙂🙂

Of course not—but if it helps nudge things in a certain direction, then yeah. Look, if thousands of dollars suddenly flood in on one specific player in a short window, a sportsbook like DraftKings or FanDuel isn't just going to sit there—they’ll move the line or hike the vig immediately. Plus, you can always find "spies" lurking in forums.
Don't laugh at me here—I used to bet pretty seriously back in the day (not on the NBA, mind you) and I know exactly how public bets work and how bookies protect themselves. 🙂
In my opinion, it's way smarter to place your bets later—partly for those last-minute injury updates, but also because of the shifting lines. But hey, do whatever you want.
I see plenty of newbies who think they've found three "guaranteed locks" by 2:00 PM, only to watch the same pattern repeat over and over again.

Just look at the pros—the best bettors don't even post their picks until the evening, which makes perfect sense (guys like Lin or Lawrence Castillo76).