NBA Betting: Vol. 2

So, looking at the opening matchups—it’s going to be the Bulls, the Thunder, and the Warriors taking it.

I'm calling it now: Rubio's going to struggle against the pressure, while Rose and Wall definitely come out on top.

Hmm... my New Year's Eve passed by without much fanfare.
No real reason to celebrate, though—my bank account was looking pretty empty.🙂
I might just hang myself after the festivities. And then, perhaps, myself right after that.

I haven't given this too much thought—just played it straight based on the player stats:

1423 28.5/Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder) 03/06/2012 at 02:00
PLAYER POINTS - over 2 1.85

Cheers and good luck.

It’s Rose versus Ellis. Rose is coming in hot—he actually went out of his way to announce he was going to put up a massive performance tonight. Ellis, on the other hand, has been struggling significantly with his shooting lately.

Rose averaged a team-best 27.6 points in last year's five-game playoff series with the Pacers, and he’s been even more dominant recently, averaging 28.8 points per game over his last four regular-season matchups in this series.

The matchup against the Pacers looks solid to me. That 7.5 spread offers some decent cushion, especially considering the Bulls just came off a much tougher contest tonight.

Arthur Hill2 said:Rose taking on Ellis (Rose’s looking good, he actually PROMISED a massive night tonight, while Ellis has been struggling big time from deep lately.)

The spread on Indiana looks decent to me. 7.5 gives us some breathing room, especially since the Bulls played a brutal game last night.

...Rose is gonna have to step up tonight because they dropped their last one to Indiana, and the underdog isn't exactly a pushover either...
🙂Indiana had an easy win against the Hornets on Saturday, they had yesterday off, but Chicago just came off a grind, so it's a back-to-back situation...

hey guys, what do you think about these picks today:

Jamison 18.5 OVER - i mean, he's cleared 20 points in 6 of his last 7 games... Cleveland really needs to get back on track, and Utah's been pretty rough on the road lately. Plus, they tend to give up too many shots to Cleveland, so I guess Jamison just has to step up if they want those big wins...

Washington vs Warriors 1 - visitors won't have Curry, which is maybe the only reason this works 🙂 i guess if they can just shut down Montrezl, they might actually pull off an upset...

Rose 24.5 OVER - dude seems pretty fired up since Indiana celebrated beating them like they just won a ring... honestly, it just shows how much they think Indiana is a big deal, and only rookies get that hyped over one win. They're gonna show them who's boss, and I think they cover the spread. Probably expecting Rose to lead the charge just like last night...

Milwaukee vs 76ers 2 - watched the Philly game against OKC, they were super close and looked like a solid squad. I think they're way better than Milwaukee here. It was just bad luck losing two out of their last three against some of the top teams in the league. Maybe they're a little tired, but I guess a win here would mean a lot...

🙂cheers

I’m no NBA expert, even if I do watch a lot of games. What’s the consensus on Rubio? Is he looking like an under? How’s his recent form been lately?

Alright, listen up, because today we’re diving headfirst into two different slips targeting those role players who might actually show up for once!🤷

Batum over 15.5 @ 1.85
Westbrook over 23.5 @ 1.85
Paul over 20.5 @ 1.85
Nowitzki over 22.5 @ 1.85
Granger over 18.5 @ 1.85 SS

Jefferson over 17.5 @ 1.85
Ellis over 22.5 @ 1.85
Lawson over 16.5 @ 1.85
Crawford over 16.5 @ 1.85
Jennings under 18.5 @ 1.85
DeRozan over 16.5 @ 1.85 HL🙂

Any word on the injury report for Cleveland? Is Kyrie Irving actually suited up for this one?
He’d be starting against Utah, which would certainly change the complexion of the game.

Klay Thompson is benched; Kyrie Irving is getting the minutes instead.

Arthur Hill2 said:Valero is sidelined, while Irving is on the court.

The Jazz just knocked off both Miami and Houston, so they’re feeling pretty confident they can handle Cleveland too.🤷

🙂🙂🙂

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stormyseal9 said:going to try two parlays today on some role players🤷

Batum over 15.5 @ 1.85Westbrook over 23.5 @ 1.85
Paul over 20.5 @ 1.85
Nowitzki over 22.5 @ 1.85
Granger over 18.5 @ 1.85 SS

Jefferson over 17.5 @ 1.85
Ellis over 22.5 @ 1.85
Lawson over 16.5 @ 1.85
Crawford over 16.5 @ 1.85
Jennings under 18.5 @ 1.85
DeRozan over 16.5 @ 1.85 HL🙂

...been watching Batum all day. Looks like you're feeling him too? Honestly, I'm getting nervous he’ll pull that same disappearing act he did against the Hornets last Saturday...🤣

Magic -6.0..1
Bulls -7.5...1
Mavericks +7.0...1
Trailblazers -10.5...1
Big Al -18.5 Over
Jamison -18.5 Over
Rose -24.5 Over

ruggedgull32 said:I've been glued to the screen watching Steph Curry all day, and since I see he's on your radar too, I'm starting to get a little nervous—honestly, I'm just praying we don't end up with another performance like what happened against the Hornets this past Saturday.🤣

Honestly, you’re probably better off sitting this one out—if he wasn't playing so terribly lately, he’d be a total lock for the under, but just look at his current form. Plus, Ariza is finally getting back into the rotation after being sidelined with that injury, and we all know he’s a beast at shutting down shooters; he basically holds guys to a measly 37% from deep. It reminds me a bit of how Batum operates, especially since he's always hunting those spot-up looks which make up about a third of his shots. When you look at the big picture, the Pelicans have a rock-solid defense when it comes to stopping perimeter shooters, ranking pretty high at number five in the league.
Their biggest weakness is definitely how they handle the pick-and-roll, so I really think this is the perfect setup for Aldridge to finally go off and put up some massive numbers at Madison Square Garden.

Aside from everyone else. DenverIt’s basically like watching a world-class offense go up against the absolute worst defense you could ever imagine—you know, kind of like seeing the best high-powered offense in the NFL run wild against a rookie defensive line that hasn't even figured out their footwork yet. + Things shot up past 34.5!☕

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers @ 1.75
7/10
Andre Iguodala over 12.5 @ 1.85
5/10
So, here I am again looking at Philly. I feel like I’ve already ranted about this squad a million times in my past breakdowns—from those wild seasons when Iguodala was running the show to whenever Williams comes off the bench to play the joker role. Look, the Bucks are clearly aiming for the playoffs, but honestly? Even in a weak Eastern Conference where they might scrape in with a losing record, I don't see them climbing higher than ninth. They also got hit with some bad luck when their big man with those Australian roots, Bogut, went down with an injury. Milwaukee is one of those teams that just can't seem to defend the small forward position, which is exactly where lethal Iguodala lives; he’s going to cause absolute chaos tonight with those drives to the rim. Plus, Milwaukee is pretty much bottom-tier when it comes to protecting the paint, and that’s basically Philly’s bread and butter. We’ve seen the Bucks' defense fall apart plenty of times before, but usually, that's only because they were having these insane offensive outbursts. Against a Philly defense like this? I guess they don't really stand a chance of outscoring their mistakes. The odds on this are killer—it's sitting at this price on Hattrick, whereas if you look at it on a site like SS, it's only 1.65. Also, Jackson is out too, and it looks like he’ll be sidelined for a good while.
Iggy was taking a ton of shots yesterday, and even against one of the best defenses in the league, he managed to drop 14 points despite shooting 5-of-16. I’m thinking today his transition game will really start to shine, especially since, like I mentioned, the Bucks are just terrible at guarding the paint and the SF spot.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Just skip him. He’d definitely be an under if he wasn't playing out of his mind right now. Plus, Ariza is coming off that injury, and the guy is famous for shutting down spot-up shooters—keeps them to about 37%. Same deal with Batum, who takes a third of his shots from spot-ups. Generally speaking, New Orleans has a solid defense against spot-ups (#5 in the league).
Their biggest weakness is defending the pick-and-roll, so maybe Aldridge finally gets a decent night at Madison Square Garden.

As for the rest, Denver(best interior offense vs. worst interior defense) + Rose over 34.5 ☕

..thanks for the tip, Play. I've got Aldridge at +20.5, so I'll take him...
Obviously Rose, since my line is +23.5, and this "your" Denver crew...
Lawson is also on fire too, sitting around 18 or 17 in some places, and I have him at +16.5, so he could easily go over...🤷

I honestly cannot wrap my head around the fact that the odds for Oklahoma playing Dallas tonight are sitting at 1.35... I mean, if you don't see the red flag waving in your face right now, you’re asking for a massive headache—seriously, who is actually setting these lines? I remember the last time Oklahoma took down Dallas at home; it was a total fluke, a buzzer-beater three from Durant at the death. I was actually riding with Oklahoma back then, but even then, the odds felt much more grounded—around 1.60—which actually made sense.

So, there is no way in hell I am touching this game. My plan for tonight is to stick to some straight bets: taking Chicago over Indiana and Denver over the Kings. The only thing I’d love to get your take on is the Rose vs. Ellis matchup—do you guys think Rose is going to outscore him?

Man, the data you're pulling is super interesting, but if there's one thing the bookies have taught me, it's that you can basically throw stats out the window—otherwise, we’d all be millionaires by now. The only exception where the numbers actually matter is baseball, but most people over here in the States don't touch it for betting, let alone the rest of the world.
I'm feeling really good about taking the Indians over 13.5 and Crawford under 16.5 today. Good luck to everyone hitting their parlays today!

Hey everyone.

Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors. One of those matchups that feels like a grind.

Orlando really needs this win. Honestly, they’re the better team, especially with how much Dwight Howard has been carrying the load over these last two games.
I don't see Toronto having any shot at this. Orlando’s been holding their own on the road with an 11-7 record, and they’ve got three straight away games coming up to keep that momentum going.
Looking at the matchups against Toronto, Charlotte, and Chicago, I’d say they’ll probably pull off the wins against Toronto and Charlotte.
Orlando finally looks like they’ve found their rhythm. Honestly, even without Howard on the floor, the offense actually flows better. It was enough to take down Toronto, anyway.

Here’s my pick: Orlando.

Chicago vs. the Indiana Pacers. Just another night of watching grown men run back and forth on a hardwood floor while I wonder where my life went wrong. Let's see if Chicago can actually pull it together tonight or if it's going to be another long flight home.

Chicago’s sitting pretty at 14-2 at home, and one of those two losses was actually handed to them by Indiana. Tonight, Chicago is looking for payback—kind of like what we saw in Philly last night. You can't count Indiana out, but honestly? Against a Chicago squad this fired up, led by Rose and his crew, I don't see them standing a chance.

Here’s my take: Chicago.

OklahomC – Dallas

Oklahoma dropped their last game, but I don't see a repeat of that happening today. Even though Dallas ranks 4th defensively—giving up about 91.3 points per game—Oklahoma’s offense is just on another level, averaging around 102. They took their last trip to Dallas and walked away with a 9-point win, so I'm not sweating it too much.

Here’s my pick: Oklahoma City (-6.5)

Taking Dirk Nowitzki for the over on 22.5. Let's see if he can actually hit it.

I've got a feeling Dirk is going to clear 22 points tonight. Oklahoma lets up way too many shots, so he should breeze past that 22.5 line without much trouble.

Take Dame Lillard over 21.5. Just a gut feeling.

Howard’s been playing way above his weight class these last two games. Honestly, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't suit up again tonight against Toronto.