NBA Betting: Vol. 2

ruggedgull32 said:..thanks for the tip, Play, I've got Aldridge at -20.5+ so I think I'll just roll with him...
Totally, Rose, since I've got him sitting at -23.5+ so this "your" Denver guy is looking solid...
Lawson is also playing out of his mind lately, hovering around 18 or 17, but since I have him at -16.5+ he might just clear the over too...🤷

👍

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Play, these stats you're pulling up are super interesting, but if my time at the local sportsbook taught me anything, it's that you can basically throw statistics out the window—otherwise, we'd all be millionaires by now! While stats definitely play a part, it's mostly huge in baseball, which is just a niche thing people over here in the States don't bet on nearly as much as they do other sports.
I'm feeling really heavy on Indiana at 13.5 today and taking the under on J. Crawford at 16.5. Good luck to everyone with their parlays today!

For sure, in a way, stats won't save you because there's always that unpredictable human element involved, but I look at them as a way to carve out a little bit of an "edge," which can honestly make or break your day, especially when you're digging into things like offensive rebounds or field goal percentages. At the end of the day, it's always better to have more info than less; sometimes having those numbers in your head lets you make a really sharp call based on gut feeling before you even see the game unfold. 🤷

Ever since I started following my gut and using that site Play been posting, I’ve bumped my hit rate from about 65% up to 80% on the players I analyze. That’s just for the deep dives I write up for the forums; I still miss quite a bit on my daily parlays, but those I mostly play on pure instinct anyway.

The stats aren't exactly trash; they definitely help a little.

The sportsbook bumped the line on Jamison from 18 up to 20.5 🙂 I guess, what do you guys think... is it still worth hitting the over? Guy's been kind of hot lately, maybe 😁

Thoughts on Walla (over 18.5) and Jamison (over 18.5), plus the Washington vs. GSW matchup?
Should I play it or skip? 😁

EDIT: Since the line moved on Jamison, I’m definitely passing on him—just curious what you guys think about Walla and the Warriors now. 🙂

shadowjackal27 said:Would you take the spread on Denver? Like if they land around -6.5 to -8.5? At maybe -110 odds.

Also... could you maybe toss in another pair for me to parlay?😁

Just looking at it... I guess I might take Jamison under 20.5.
Everything points to him being hot, since he hit the over 20.5 in 6 of his last 7 games.
But 20.5 still feels like a pretty high line, I guess.🤷

I'd probably go Griffin under before even thinking about Jamison,🤷
since they're playing away at Love's, so it'll be a real grind.

William Hughes40 said:What do we think about Walla (18.5) and Jamison (18.5)—both overs—and the Washington vs. GSW matchup?
Bet or pass? 😁

EDIT: Since they bumped the line on Jamison, I’m definitely sitting that one out. Now I'm just curious what you guys think about Walla and the Warriors. 🙂

Man, Wall is absolutely losing his mind at home lately; last time he played, he was basically a ghost, so he ended up hitting the over easily. Plus, Curry's out again today, so I feel like the over is looking pretty good, especially if Young isn't playing and wasting all those possessions. Jamison is playing hot right now, but honestly, facing Milsap and Jefferson? I wouldn't touch him, especially since they already hiked up the margin.

Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: 1.85
Pick: Dirk Nowitzki over 22.5

Dirk’s been a bit inconsistent lately—barely played against Memphis and dropped 19 against New Orleans, though you have to credit the Pelicans for having a decent PF defense, giving up about 19.4 points there. They even gave up 40 to Utah last game. But looking at his matchups against OKC this season, he’s hit 26 and 29, just missing the mark once. Oklahoma is struggling to defend the PF spot and the paint in general, allowing roughly 22.1 points to that position. Dirk is averaging over 23 in his last 10, so I think he clears this easily tonight, especially since OKC games tend to be high-scoring.

Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: 2.00
Pick: Griffin vs. Howard, leaning Howard

This one looks interesting; honestly, whenever I see odds like 2.00 on this matchup, it screams "value" to me. Howard has been putting in work lately with scores of 28, 33, and 14. It feels like he's grinding harder now than he was at the start of the season. He’s averaging 21 over his last 10, and tonight he faces Toronto, who isn't exactly elite at guarding centers—they're sitting 11th in points allowed at that position. He had 19 against them earlier this year, but he was dealing with Bargnani, who's been out for a while, so Howard should have a much easier path tonight.
On the flip side, Blake Griffin hasn't looked the same since the All-Star break, posting 14, 17, and 14 against teams that aren't even great at defending the paint or the four spot. He’s also struggled on back-to-backs, averaging only 18, and he’s coming off an overtime game yesterday, so fatigue is definitely a factor. He's facing Minnesota tonight, and while they have Kevin Love—who absolutely went off against Portland—Griffin usually plays well against Minnesota, but I think the exhaustion might catch up to him.

Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: 1.85
Pick: Kyrie Irving over 18.5

Kyrie has been rolling lately with 20, 22, and 24 points over his last three. He’s been on fire since the All-Star break, and he was the standout during the Rising Stars game, dropping 38. With Vareja still out, he’s seeing plenty of shot attempts, and I think Millsap and Jefferson can handle Jamison in the paint. Utah is actually tied for second-worst in points allowed to point guards, alongside Miami and Memphis, giving up about 21.1 per game. This feels like a total shootout given both teams' defensive struggles; their first meeting ended 113-105. Kyrie scored 20 in that one, and historically, when Cleveland breaks the 100-point mark, he averages 21.7. Utah is even worse at defending guards when opponents score 100+, which is where they rank worst in the league at 25.7 points allowed. Easy over for me.

Good luck. I'd lean toward Irving and Dirk early. Also, these look good:

over 18.5 Jamison @1.85 FanDuel
over 19.5 Paul @1.85 FanDuel
under 11.5 Rubio @1.85 FanDuel
under 15.5 Deng @1.85 FanDuel
over 195.5 Cleveland-Utah @1.85 DraftKings
over 16.5 DeRozan @1.85 FanDuel
over 24.5 Rose @1.85 DraftKings

shadowjackal27 said:Would you take the spread on Denver? Like, if they open around -6.5 to -8.5? Probably at +105 odds, obviously.

And one more thing... hey, could you throw in another matchup for me to pair this with?😁

Looking at the board, I might lean toward taking the under on Jamison, like under 20.5 points.
The whole situation is interesting because he’s been on fire lately, hitting the over on 20.5 in six of his last seven games.
But man, 20.5 is still a pretty beefy line to work with.🤷

It’s definitely worth a shot, though, especially considering the pace Denver likes to set—the Kings are probably going to have a hard time keeping up once Denver starts pushing the tempo.

And just like always, it might be smart to look at DeRozan under 17.5... he doesn't really have much of a perimeter game, shooting maybe around 35%, and I don't see him getting too many easy looks inside against someone like Dwight.

Maybe even Wall over 18.5.

I wouldn't touch Jamison, though; even if that under looks tempting, I just don't have a ton of faith in Utah's defense at the four spot.

@Joshua Gonzalez33

Nelson and Richardson are good to go, but Q. Richardson will be sidelined, and he's been out for quite a while now.

☕

Nicholas Chase34 said:Definitely worth a shot; given the pace Denver sets, the Kings are going to struggle to keep up with that onslaught.

Same as usual, DeRozan under 17.5 seems solid... he’s got zero perimeter game (hovering around 35%), and I don't see him getting much paint action against Dwight.

Maybe Wall over 18.5 too.

I wouldn't touch Jamison; even though the under looks tempting, I don't trust Utah's defense in the fourth quarter one bit.

@Joshua Gonzalez33

Nelson and Richardson are playing, but Q. Richardson will be out, and he's been sidelined for a while now.

☕

So I wrote

Nelson and Richardson are still banged up.

Since Richardson is still out and Nelson is too—though I saw on Yahoo he might sit, which could be wrong info. Maybe I phrased things poorly earlier regarding them having fewer touches (I meant Nelson). I don't think I'm off base unless Nelson actually plays, so please check that later and drop a link if you find proof he's in.

p.s.

DeRozan is averaging 19.0 points over his last five meetings with Orlando. He finished with 17 in the New Year's Day loss.

+

DeRozan last 10 games 18.6 average

So yeah, watch that under.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:So what I was trying to get at was

If Richardson is still sidelined like he is right now, and then there's Nelson—I read somewhere that he might sit out on Yahoo, though honestly, that might just be bad intel. Maybe I didn't word things quite right earlier when I mentioned we'd see even fewer fantasy points from him (I was specifically talking about Nelson). So, I don't really see where I went wrong here (unless Nelson ends up suiting up), but hey, could you double-check that for me later today? Like, maybe drop a link if you find something confirming he's actually playing.

Nelson is definitely going to play; I can't see any reason why he wouldn't, considering he's been in the lineup for the last three games without any issues, and he hasn't even shown up on the injury report.

http://www.donbest.com/nba/injuries/

Just keep an eye on this site for injury updates because their info is always way ahead of the curve. Yahoo isn't exactly the most reliable source when it comes to the real-time stuff.

What do you guys think—is Howard gonna drop 23 points tonight?
I’m looking mostly at his headspace and where his motivation is at... I mean, he’s itching to get out of Orlando, but in these last three games, he’s just been playing totally flat, barely hitting his averages
Caught the Raptors game last night—honestly, they aren't anything special. DeRozan is really the only one worth watching, the rest of them are basically forgettable
They pulled off the win last night mostly because of Amir Johnson’s defensive masterclass. He was an absolute brick wall in the paint, but then he caught an injury right toward the end and had to head to the locker room (with about two minutes left on the clock)
He gassed himself out last night, whereas Howard should be fresh, and since the Magic are scrambling to make the playoffs, Howard really needs to step up and satisfy all his fans tonight🙂
I’m leaning towards the over.
🙄

Is there anything solid out there? Looking for one reliable parlay for a bigger play.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Nelson’s gonna play. Don't see why he wouldn't—he's started the last three and hasn't dealt with any injuries. He wasn't even on the injury report.

Check out the NBA injury report over at Don Best if you need the latest updates on who's sitting out tonight.

Just stick to this page for injury updates; they’re way faster than anyone else. Honestly, Yahoo isn't even worth using if you want the real scoop on this stuff.

Ouch. 🤦

My bad, I wasn't even paying attention to what I was reading. It says...

Jameer Nelson keeps grinding through despite that sore left knee and right ankle. Honestly, you wouldn't even know he's hurting; it hasn't touched his game at all.

Gotta pay closer attention to what I'm reading. 🤣

I'm digging this:

03/04/12 F Danilo Gallinari Ankle likely. Monday against Sacramento. Let's see what happens.

frozengardener98 said:Is there anything safe out there? Maybe just one pick for a bigger bet?

Man, I really can't stand it when people use the word "safe" 🙂—it’s just not a thing in sports betting, unless you're counting some kind of mathematical certainty that doesn't exist in the real world.

It’s much better to say something looks "highly probable," because honestly, that's a lot more realistic for what we do here.

There are plenty of picks being posted in this thread, so it's really just about paying closer attention and actually learning something from all the info being shared. ☕

I honestly think there's a massive chance J Crawford drops to under 16.5 points. There’s a real shot he gets moved back to the bench after starting these first five games. Plus, if Nene and Gallinari get some minutes, I wouldn't be against taking Lawson under 16.5 for a mid-tier role, but we definitely need to wait for better lines before jumping on that.

...thinking about picking a system to run today. Honestly, stormyseal9 is always crushing it with some pretty solid setups...

Rose over
The Clippers at +8.5. Look, I realize they had a grueling matchup against Houston last night, but let's be realistic: this roster is fundamentally superior to Minnesota's. Even if things go sideways and they end up dropping this one, there is no way they lose by more than eight points given the current margin.
Rubio under—he’s being anchored by one of the premier defenders in the league. Lately, his perimeter shooting has been non-existent, and honestly, he operates as a pure point guard who prioritizes playmaking over his own shot selection anyway.
DeRozan under—his long-range shooting remains inconsistent, and they have to contend with Howard protecting the paint. My read is that Toronto might stay competitive until the final quarter, at which point DeMar will likely head to the bench to rest for those extra 12 minutes.🥳

ruggedgull32 said:...I’d suggest trying out a specific system for today, as stormyseal9 always seems to have quite a bit of success with them...

I'm a little lost on the quota, would you mind walking me through it if you could?????

Back to the main point, Howard has been hitting over 21.5 points quite easily in his recent games, even when he's struggling from the free-throw line... Since Toronto doesn't really have a legitimate center to guard him, I have a feeling we'll see plenty of trips to the line and some easy buckets in the paint, which should carry through alongside Portland covering the spread, hopefully bringing us all a nice 2.22 return...

Minnesota Timberwolves - LA Clippers +2.5, 2, 1.85
6/10

So, we've got two super young, high-potential squads facing off here. Honestly, though, I don't really see why the Wolves are getting the nod as favorites. The Clippers have way more veteran depth, and yeah, they’re on a back-to-back, but this is the NBA—these guys are pros, they deal with fatigue all the time. I doubt it'll be a huge factor tonight. Looking at the matchups, the Clippers probably hold the edge at Power Forward and maybe Center. I mean, Love might have a slight edge over Griffin just because of that perimeter shooting, but both teams are kind of struggling in the paint right now. I think Gobert has been looking a bit sharper lately, so he might have the upper hand against Jordan. On the perimeter, though? That's where the Clippers really shine. I wouldn't be surprised if CP3 absolutely tears through Rubio, and Butler should be able to shut down Williams and Beasley on defense. Plus, Foye comes off the bench as a killer option, and Williams is always dangerous when he gets hot from deep. If I had to pick a reason to lean toward the Clippers, it’s probably Chris Paul. Minnesota has been giving up about 18.2 points per game at the point guard spot and averaging around 9 assists, so CP3’s playmaking could really go off tonight. Just to stay safe, I'm taking the small handicap 😍

I’m looking at Denver -8.5 and Portland...
I already gave my full breakdown on Denver to Nicholas Chase34, but honestly—you just can't expect Sacramento's defense to hold up against an offense like Denver's—and besides, they’ve been absolutely pathetic on the road lately (sitting at 4-19)...
As for Portland, I mean, damn, they have to pull a win eventually, right? And there’s probably no better time to do it than against New Orleans, especially since they're missing a ton of guys (Okafor, Smith, Gordon, maybe even Landry—though Ariza will likely suit up)... they're playing at home, so maybe, just maybe, they'll actually show up and 😁