NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Man, the Phoenix Suns absolutely wrecked me yesterday. But hey, since today is the last night before the break, I might as well recap. My bankroll is up four times what it was when I started this NBA run, so I’m feeling pretty damn good about it. I guess I hit a bit of a rough patch recently, but overall, the profit is looking solid. Tonight, I'm putting a small stake on the Orlando Magic and maybe digging around for one more little play just to keep things moving. Once we get through the All-Star break, though, things are getting serious.

Honestly, if you ask me, the lock for today is Jeremy Lin over 17.5, because man, he was just chilling yesterday, playing maybe 32 minutes, taking 11 shots, and still managed to sink 17 buckets? Are you kidding me? I’m looking at him today and I’m seeing him take at least 20 shots and drop 25 makes easy. It's a total no-brainer!🤷

Dwyane Wade over 23.5 @ 1.85
Jeremy Lin over 17.5 @ 1.85
Tony Parker over 19.5 @ 1.85
Kobe Bryant over 27.5 @ 1.85
Kevin Durant over 28.5 @ 1.85 National Parlay☕

Let's see the National crowd step up already!🤷

LeBron James over 27.5 @ 1.85
Josh Smith over 16.5 @ 1.85
Dwight Howard over 20.5 @ 1.85
Tim Duncan over 13.5 @ 1.85
Pau Gasol over 16.5 @ 1.85
-10.5/Miami Heat - New York Knicks @ 2 @ 1.85
LAL over 92.5 @ 1.82
Russell Westbrook over 24.5 @ 1.85
Amar'e Stoudemire under 17.5 @ 1.85 National Parlay

Running an 8/9 system with a small stake here, let's go!🙂

As far as Jeremy Lin is concerned, it’s a great read.

The narrative surrounding Jeremy Lin being a "stopper" against the Miami Heat is gaining traction, and it’s worth a deep dive. People seem to forget how much defensive grit he actually brought to the court during those matchups. It wasn't just about his scoring or that sudden surge of popularity; it was about his ability to disrupt the rhythm of high-level guards. When you look at the tape, the way he pressured the ball and forced mistakes from players like Dwyane Wade was significant. He didn't just play alongside the stars; he actively worked to neutralize them. There's a specific kind of toughness required to face a lineup like Miami's, and Lin showed he could hold his own in that environment. It's one thing to be an offensive spark plug, but it's quite another to be the guy tasked with shutting down an elite scorer. He did both, and we shouldn't overlook that aspect of his game.

@play...nice work 👍

So what we're looking at today is...

Atlanta vs. Russell Westbrook
Russell Westbrook over 24.5 points

should be a lock 🤷

The odds on the Orlando Magic are already tanking. I jumped in when they were at 1.80, but now they've dropped down to 1.60... ugh, I guess I just got lucky timing on that one.

...so I'm sticking with the under on Amar'e Stoudemire. Honestly, I think Bosh is going to lock him down tonight. And after reading that nonsense Bones posted? Now I’m feeling like betting on Jeremy Lin is just as much of a joke...
I've got both Amar'e Stoudemire and Jeremy Lin at the -18.5 line or better.
Everyone is betting against the New York Knicks spread, but if they actually shut down the paint and kill their pick-and-roll game like everyone's saying, and then their outside shooting goes cold? They're absolutely cooked...

wiredcanyon39 said:The odds on the Orlando Magic are tanking. I grabbed them at 1.80 and now they're sitting at 1.60.

...on some of the online books, it's almost down to 1.50...

I put my money on Chris Bosh over the New York Knicks, mostly because the Miami Heat "eventually have to show up."😍

Just kidding. Here is the breakdown I am using to argue why this should be pretty close:

I mentioned earlier tonight that he had an excellent game. It was obvious that he and Carmelo Anthony aren't quite sure who should be handling the rock in those final minutes, but they’ll likely find their rhythm again as the game progresses. It's a shame they still have to face the Miami Heat shortly; that will be a massive test, even if they look decent against them on paper:

Jeremy Lin > Mario Chalmers (assuming Lin keeps this pace up, though there are hints of a slump coming, at least regarding his shooting percentages)
Amar'e Stoudemire and Chris Bosh (I am referring to how Bosh is playing right now—he is incredibly passive and honestly tedious to watch, so I am expecting Amar'e Stoudemire to step it up a bit)
Carmelo Anthony < LeBron James (The gap isn't huge, but you have to give the edge to LeBron James, for crying out loud)
Tyson Chandler >>> Carmelo Anthony (No discussion needed here)
Fields < Dwyane Wade (And by a wide margin)

Furthermore, the New York Knicks bench is just as solid. You have J.R. Smith, Danilo Gallinari, and Mychal Jeffries—who is proving to be an elite defender—all looking like top-tier Sixth Man candidates, plus Baron Davis, so Jeremy Lin doesn't necessarily have to play 100 minutes straight through the night.

Also, a 9.5 spread is a massive number. Even in blowout situations, the Miami Heat tend to keep things somewhat competitive; I recall Orlando leading by something like 20, only for the lead to shrink to 12 or so.

It's a shame Carmelo Anthony isn't on the Stat Sheet; I have a feeling he’s going to have a much better performance tonight.

Pau Gasol in his matchup against Chris Bosh caught my eye too. I assume Tyson Chandler will be guarding Bosh to make life difficult, especially since we all know Amar'e Stoudemire is a liability on defense. Gasol dropped 24 yesterday, so maybe he hits 18 today. That should be enough to outproduce Bosh, who has reclaimed his role as the primary playmaker since Dwyane Wade returned.

In the end, I played:

Orlando Magic
Chris Bosh over New York Knicks
Pau Gasol over Chris Bosh

Arthur Hill2 said:I took Chris Bosh over the New York Knicks because I figured the Miami Heat would eventually have to hit their numbers.😍

Just kidding, here's the breakdown I'm basing this on:

Also, a 9.5 spread is huge. Even in blowouts, the Miami Heat usually manage to stay somewhat competitive—I'm picturing the Orlando Magic being up by 20 and then cutting it down to maybe 12 or something.

Too bad Carmelo Anthony isn't on the Stat Sheet; I have a feeling he’s going to have a big night.

I was also drawn to the Pau Gasol vs. Chris Bosh matchup. I assume Tyson Chandler will be guarding Bosh to make life difficult, especially since we all know how much of a liability Amar'e Stoudemire is on defense. Gasol dropped 24 yesterday, so if he gets 18 tonight, that should be enough to edge out Bosh, who regained his lead role once Dwyane Wade came back.

In the end, I went with:

Orlando Magic
Chris Bosh over New York Knicks
Pau Gasol over Chris Bosh

Honestly, you probably would've been better off just taking Bosh under. Even Serge Ibaka isn't easy to score against.

Arthur Hill2 said:I took Chris Bosh over the New York Knicks because the Miami Heat "eventually have to show up" 😍

Just kidding, here’s the breakdown I’m basing this on—should be pretty close:

And honestly, that 9.5 spread is massive. Even in total blowouts, you see the Miami Heat hang around decently. Like, if the Orlando Magic are up by 20, they might claw it back to 12 or something.

Shame Carmelo Anthony isn't on my Stat Sheet; I've got a feeling he’s going to cook tonight.

The matchup between Pau Gasol and Chris Bosh caught my eye too. I'm assuming Tyson Chandler will be riding Bosh hard to make life difficult, especially since we all know how much of a liability Amar'e Stoudemire is on defense. Gasol dropped 24 yesterday, maybe he hits 18 today? That should be enough to edge out Bosh, who basically reclaimed his superstar status once Dwyane Wade came back.

So, my final picks:

Orlando Magic
Chris Bosh over New York Knicks
Pau Gasol over Chris Bosh

...I’m staying away from that handicap, but I'm with you on Gasol. It's like Kobe Bryant sparked some competitive fire in him, plus that comment about letting the guy play without constant scrutiny didn't hurt. And yeah, Bosh definitely slowed down once Wade returned...
Alright, here's what I'm actually playing:
Amar'e Stoudemire under
Orlando Magic -2,5
San Antonio 2
☕

Miami Heat (-15.5) vs. New York Knicks... I'm saying no way they cover that spread
Tim Duncan over 13.5... definitely going under on that one

Orlando Magic
Amar'e Stoudemire under
Spurs by 2
Miami Heat -15, 2

Odds at 5.96🙂

Atlanta Hawks (+2.5) vs. Orlando Magic (-1) (1.95)

Against everyone else, so whatever happens, happens.. ☕

Anyone got a solid stream for Miami vs New York?

ruggedcyclist7 said:anyone got a decent stream for Miami vs New York?

http://www.balkansport.info/channel-...sport-2-a.html

...Stoudemire is already sitting at 7, this isn't looking good at all...🙂

wiredcanyon39 said:http://www.balkansport.info/channel-...sport-2-a.html

Now this is what I call quality... thanks.

shadowjackal27 said:Atlanta Hawks (+2.5) vs. Orlando Magic (-1) | Odds: 1.95

Against everyone else. Whatever happens, happens. ☕

29:20, first lead for the Atlanta Hawks.

The Orlando Magic can't hit a three to save their lives. This could have been a blowout by halftime. ☕

shadowjackal27 said:29:20 first bucket for the Hawks.

The Orlando Magic can't hit a three to save their lives. This could be a total blowout by halftime at this rate. ☕

...what a joke of a team. They've got a center like that, yet they just keep forcing these threes... shooting 2-for-12 from deep so far... Congrats shadowjackal27, you called it... this is getting pathetic...
Not against a squad like this...
I'm checking out... peace.

ruggedgull32 said:...what a joke of a squad. They have a center like that, yet all they do is settle for threes... shooting 2-for-12 from deep so far... Congrats shadowjackal27, this is an absolute disaster...
Not against a team like this...
I'm checking out now...

Look, it wasn't exactly a stroke of genius. I just took a gut feeling gamble. And judging by how things look right now, it's paying off.
But they could easily flip the script before the buzzer sounds.
Then again, the Orlando Magic is one of those teams I never, ever bet big on unless they're the underdogs (unless I'm betting on total long shots).☕