NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Thanks for the help on the Clippers and Ron 🙏🙏🙏🙏

Got 11 games on the slate today. Let's cook up a winner 👍

Man, screw Jeremy Lee67. One basket away from another winning parlay. But hey, I guess I shouldn't be surprised...
First thing I noticed today—and honestly, it’s your fault because reading these posts actually taught me something—is how Houston absolutely falls apart defending the perimeter. Rubio was getting pushed around today, sitting at a -11.5+ margin. His three-game average against Houston is up to 12.3...
He struggled in the first one, dropped 6, then went off for 18 on the road, and just finished with 13. Thoughts?🤷

Edit:
The guy generally plays better on the road anyway. Just checked his stats and he's sitting at -10.5+ out there...

ruggedgull32 said:...
Edit:
The guy generally performs better on the road—and here I am looking at him sitting at -10.5 points or worse...

You wouldn't lose your mind if you just specified which sportsbook you were using...😉

Rondo pulled it off! xD

Here is my selection for today's slate:
Bryant +27
Martin +20
PHI
I recall Bryant mentioning his intense dislike for Phoenix, which usually means he plays at his absolute peak whenever they are the opposition... if anyone has a moment, please look up his head-to-head stats against PHX.
It looks like Martin has finally found his rhythm again, and the coach is actually rewarding him with some decent minutes.
As for PHI... nothing is set in stone yet, but there are some question marks regarding their lineup: Delonte West, Jason Terry, and Rodrigue B. are all questionable for tonight.
Even if they decide to suit up... I would still lean toward PHI.

EDIT: He’s been averaging 31.0 points over the last 23 matchups, including that 2010 Western Conference Finals run. Los Angeles has walked away with 17 wins in those contests.

Alright then! xD

Terry Cook48 said:Man, you really wouldn't mind dropping a hint about which sportsbook you're actually using, would you?😉

So, I'm looking for the Prime Minister in Canada, but honestly? I'm just trying to figure out if there's even a border crossing like that in the States. Does that even make sense? Who knows.

Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves | Rockets +1 (Moneyline 1.55)
7/10
Kevin Love Under 24.5 Points (1.85)
5/10

Houston has been looking pretty solid lately. After a rough start to the season, they really found their rhythm with a nice winning streak, though they’ve settled into this sort of "win one, lose one" pattern recently. They’ve got a really talented roster, too—guys like Lowry, Martin, and Scola are basically carrying the load and doing a killer job of it this year. I also think Chase Budinger is going to be a huge factor tonight; he’s probably got some extra motivation since he’ll be out at the NBA Slam Dunk Contest soon, so maybe we’ll see him throw down a massive dunk or two tonight. Dalembert is playing his heart out this season, and honestly, paired with Scola, they should be able to lock things down in the paint. Houston tends to give up a bit much at the Power Forward spot—around 17 points or so—and even though they’re playing great, I just don't see them being able to shut that down while playing on the road. Rubio might be a threat from deep, but I’m staying away from that; you never know if he’s going to focus entirely on dishing assists or decide to hunt for his own shot. Pekovic is getting better by the day, so I expect him to take a few more shots, which should naturally eat into Kevin Love's total volume.

wiredcanyon39 said:Houston Rockets - Minnesota Timberwolves 1 1.55
7/10
Kevin Love under 24.5 1.85
5/10

Houston's been decent lately after a rough start, putting together a nice run before things leveled out a bit. They're mostly playing a win-loss pattern now. Lowry, Martin, and Scola are carrying the load pretty well this season. Chase Budinger is a key piece too; I guess he might have extra motivation tonight since he's headed to the All-Star Slam Dunk Contest soon, so maybe we see some big plays. Dalembert is playing solid defense this year, and paired with Scola, they should hold the paint well. Houston gives up about 17 points at power forward, which is high, though I doubt they can fix that gap while on the road. Rubio might go over, but I wouldn't touch that—you never know if he'll focus on assists or look for his own shot. Pekovic is getting better, so he might take enough shots to keep Love's numbers down somewhat.

That makes sense, but it’s also worth noting they've played three times this season and Love went 39, 29, and 25. He hit the over every single time, so I probably wouldn't bet against him...

What do you guys think about Lin hitting the over on 20.5 today? Maybe he pairs it with a Miami 2-1 win?

Man, there's just so much action today that I’ve gotta throw down two different parlays🤷

Dwyane Wade over 22.5 at 1.85
Love over 24.5 at 1.85
Jefferson over 17.5 at 1.85
Cousins over 16.5 at 1.85
Jamison under 18.5 at 1.85
Wall Street under 17.5 at 1.85
Bynum over 15.5 at 1.85

6/7 system play, high stakes☕

Just hoping one of these legends pulls through for me😍

Dwight Howard over 20.5 at 1.85
Aaron Gordon under 15.5 at 1.85
Shawn Marion under 13.5 at 1.85
Dirk Nowitzki over 21.5 at 1.85
Stoudamire under 20.5 at 1.85
Pau Gasol M over 15.5 at 1.85
Lawson over 15.5 at 1.85
Kevin Durant over 27.5 at 1.85
Kobe Bryant over 27.5 at 1.85
-10.5/Utah-Wash 2 at 1.85
198.5/Cleveland-Miami under at 1.85
185.5/Toronto-Charlotte under at 1.85

10/12 system, let's go high stakes🤷HL

Brandon Jennings (-19.5+)-ORL-MIA 1 1.85
Might be tough for him to work the paint next to Dwight Howard. He only put up 7 points against Orlando a few days ago, and now they're on the road.
DeMar DeRozan (-15.5+)-TOR-CHA 2 1.85
He's facing a weak Charlotte Hornets team. He takes a ton of shots, and since Harriet Kleiza isn't even in the rotation yet, I guess the over is likely.
Westbrook (-23.5+)-OKC-GSW 2 1.85
He’s in good form. Golden State is coming to town and they can give up a lot of points. Both matchups this season have gone over, so maybe.

I’m probably gonna bench Lina tonight, mostly because I have a feeling Melo might actually make an appearance

I haven't seen anything from tsigalko-11 lately... just seems like everyone’s gone quiet or moved on to something else... anyway, what's the word? stormyseal9 says:
🤦

Man, they completely missed the call on that boundary line... and then the game just spiraled into this absolute shootout, ending with something like 145 points. Just pure chaos... 😂

Taking a break from Samoban for a few days...

Look, you want me to dive deep into my thoughts on betting? Honestly... where do I even start with that mess? It’s a rabbit hole that most people stumble into thinking they’ve found some secret shortcut to easy money, only to realize pretty quickly that the house always, *always* wins in the end... It’s all just a massive psychological game, really. You see these guys online acting like they’ve cracked the code—showing off stacks of cash from some parlay on a Tuesday night—but they never show you the dozens of losing slips that came before it. It’s pure illusion. People get caught up in the adrenaline, that rush when you’re staring at the clock in the fourth quarter and your whole life depends on one free throw... it’s addictive, sure, but it’s also incredibly draining. I’ve seen too many people treat it like a career or a reliable way to pay the rent, which is just... man, it's tragic. If you aren't doing it with money you've already written off as "gone," you're basically just handing your paycheck to the casinos and sportsbooks. It’s a grind. A cynical, endless cycle of chasing losses and feeling like the next big win is just around the corner... but it rarely is. My take? Treat it like a high-priced ticket to a game you'd pay for anyway. If you enjoy the extra tension, fine. But if you start thinking you can outsmart the math... well, that's when things get ugly. Just stay smart about it, I guess... though I doubt many people actually listen to that kind of advice... ☕ 😬

Dana Grant8 said:What do you guys think about today... is Jeremy Lin actually going to clear that 20.5 line? And what's the play on Miami hitting the over on their spread? I've been staring at these numbers for a bit... nothing feels certain anymore...

Lina, I’m not even gonna get into the weeds with you here—I just don't get this whole parlay move with that 1.20 line. Like, seriously, what’s the point? Honestly, if you really believe in it, you’d be better off just bumping your stake up by 20% and betting on her solo... instead of dragging some useless little multiplier into the mix that adds zero actual value to your ticket...

wiredcanyon39 said:Clippers at +1.5 @ 1.55
Rondo over 14.5 @ 1.85
Total @ 2.8675

wiredcanyon39 said:☕

☕

James Taylor3 said:🤦

Man, they completely lost the plot here. I mean, how does a game end up with 145 points? Like, seriously? 😂

Samoban is out for a few days.

I don't know, maybe missing by 44 points isn't the absolute worst disaster ever... I guess if they had played an extra quarter, things might have looked different, but who knows. 😁

04:30, Los Angeles Lakers - Phoenix Suns, pick: under 186.5 points @ 1.91 Betway

These two squads have already faced off this season, and the Lakers walked away with a 99-83 win (totaling 182 points), where the line was set at 192. Naturally, the oddsmakers realized they missed the mark and dropped the limit by 6 points, but if you ask me, even that feels a bit too high for these two teams. Phoenix has played the under in about 70% of their games this season, sitting right at the top alongside New York City in that department. The Lakers aren't far behind either, with 60.7% of their matchups staying under the total(#4). When Phoenix is coming off a rest day, their over/under split is a wild 4-14 (77.77% - 22.23%). Both sides struggle with pace, as the Lakers rank #25 in possessions per game (93.1) and Phoenix sits at #20 (94.8). Plus, they are both bottom-feeders when it comes to creating extra scoring opportunities—Lakers at #29 and Phoenix at #26. You’ve got older rosters here that just don't run a high-octane game, which explains why the totals stay so low. When I crunch all the numbers, it feels like the real sweet spot is closer to 180.5, maybe something like a 94-86 finish, so I'm feeling confident taking the under 186.5. ☕

LeBron:
Bynum under 15.5 @ 1.85
Philadelphia 1 @ 1.75
Jennings under 19.5 @ 1.85

The free agent J. R. Smith is headed to the Knicks, though he won't see any action until Sunday.
He'll be sliding into a hybrid wing role for the Knicks, where he and Iman Shumpert will likely handle those backup perimeter spots. You'll see guys like Bill Walker, Toney Douglas, and Steve Novak rotating in and out, but they'll mostly be playing second fiddle to Shumpert and Smith—provided Smith keeps things steady and avoids the wild antics he's known for. Last year in Denver, he put up decent numbers—about 12.3 points, 4.1 boards, 1.6 threes, and 1.2 steals in roughly 25 minutes—so he has talent, but his playing time might be limited. He's definitely an interesting option, but probably not a must-have for your 8- or 9-category fantasy leagues.
Pretty interesting stuff ☕

edit: adding another pick:
01:00, Brandon Jennings, pick: under 19.5 points @ 1.85, Betway
Brandon Jennings, the floor general for the Milwaukee Bucks, is clearly hitting a slump lately; he's been averaging just 14.4 points over his last five outings while shooting a shaky 31%. His matchup today is against Orlando, a team that held him to a mere 7 points just a few days ago on a tough 3-for-14 (21.4%) shooting night. Orlando is actually really disciplined when defending isolation plays, pick-and-roll ball handlers, and off-screen movement. Most of Jennings' production comes from being the P&R handler (30.4%), transition buckets (21.2%), spot-ups (17.8%), and iso plays (13.8%). He's facing Nelson, who might not look like a defensive powerhouse at first glance, but he is actually quite stout when defending P&R ball handlers. While Nelson can be a bit vulnerable against spot-up shooters, he's been doing a solid job containing Jennings so far, so I don't see why that would change. Getting to the rim is going to be an uphill battle with Howard in the paint, and Jennings generally struggles more when he's on the road. I honestly think the true line should be around 17.5, so getting the under 19.5 feels like a great value to me.

Nicholas Chase34 said:4:30 AM, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns. My pick: Under 186.5 points at 1.91 on Betway.

These two teams already met earlier this season, where the Lakers took it 99-83. The total was set at 192 back then, and since the oddsmakers realized they missed the mark, they've dropped the line by 6 points. Honestly, I still think that’s too high for these two. The Phoenix Suns have been playing in the under for 70% of their games this season, tied with New York City for the most. The Lakers aren't any different, hitting the under in about 60.7% of their matchups. When Phoenix has a day of rest, their over/under split is a rough 4-14. Both squads struggle with possessions per game—Lakers are sitting at 93.1 and Phoenix is at 94.8—and they both rank near the bottom when it comes to creating extra scoring opportunities. You've got older rosters here that just don't play at a frantic pace, which explains all those unders. When you crunch the numbers, a realistic total looks closer to 180.5, maybe something like a 94-86 finish. I'm taking the under 186.5. ☕

LeBron:
Bynum Taking the under 15.5 at 1.85.
Philadelphia 1 @ 1,75
Jennings Under 19.5 at 1.85.

Free agent. J. R. Smith He's gonna sign with them. KnicksBut he won't be back on the court until Sunday at the earliest.
Smith is moving into a hybrid wing role for the Knicks, where he and Shumpert should cover those backup guard and forward spots. You’ll see guys like Bill Walker, Toney Douglas, and Steve Novak rotating in occasionally, but they'll definitely be playing second fiddle to Shumpert and Smith—provided Smith actually keeps his head on straight and avoids the usual nonsense. Looking at his numbers from last season in Denver—about 12.3 points and 4.1 boards in roughly 25 minutes—he clearly has upside, even if his playing time is limited. He’s a solid speculative add, but I wouldn't burn a high pick on him in 8- or 9-cat leagues.
Interesting. ☕

edit: adding picks:
1:00 AM, Brandon Jennings, pick: under 19.5 points @ 1.85, Betway
Brandon Jennings is clearly struggling right now. Over his last five games, he’s only averaging about 14.4 points on a dismal 31% shooting. To make matters worse, he just got stifled by the Orlando Magic a few days ago, putting up only 7 points on 3-for-14 shooting. The Magic are tough to score against, especially when it comes to isolation plays, pick-and-rolls, or coming off screens. Since Jennings gets most of his looks through the pick-and-roll (30.4%), transition buckets (21.2%), spot-ups (17.8%), and iso plays (13.8%), this matchup is looking grim. He’s facing Nelson, who might not be an elite defender overall, but he’s actually really solid at containing pick-and-roll ball handlers. While Nelson isn't the best at defending spot-ups, if he's been shutting down Jennings lately, I don't see why that would change tonight. Getting to the rim is going to be a nightmare with Howard waiting for him in the paint, and Jennings hasn't played great on the road recently anyway. Honestly, 17.5 feels like a more realistic ceiling for him, so I’m taking the over on 19.5.

Even if Jennings only dropped 8 in the first matchup, he admitted he’s been in a slump and hasn't been playing at 100%. He’s looking to bounce back, so I’m expecting a solid game from him. Not sure how much volume he'll get, but I see massive value in this under.

Hey Play,

Why Phil against Dallas? There’s gotta be a reason.

I'm asking because, from what I can see, Dallas has been playing lights out over their last few games. The only thing I haven't checked is if anyone's sitting out today.🙄

shadowjackal27 said:Hey Play,

why pick Philly over Dallas? Is there a specific reason behind that?

I’m just asking because from what I can see, Dallas has been playing absolutely lights out over their last few games. The only thing I don't know is if they're missing anyone on the roster for tonight.🙄

It's Philly because the Mavericks are going to be without Terry, West, and potentially Beaubois, plus Philly is generally a tough place to play when you're on the road. 🤷

I’ve been scrolling through some American forums again today, and it looks like quite a few people are putting their money on:

76ers -h
GS +h
Cavaliers +h

76ers under

I find the situation with the Cavaliers a bit suspicious, though. Miami has been playing exceptionally well lately, so I wouldn't necessarily want to jump into that one, even if I suspect it’s going to be an incredibly tough road trip for Miami—or rather, for LeBron James.

Personally, I think Golden State is the best bet for today, maybe looking at +10.5 at 1.85 or perhaps +17.5 at 1.3, which I am about 99% certain will hit. I’ve actually been following this one guy on the forum for a while now, and he’s been doing remarkably well—he’s sitting at 8-1, though I suppose he missed his first one tonight after betting on Boston +h. His pick for today is exactly Golden State +h.

As for the 76ers, I guess a fair amount of players taking that side seem a bit questionable to me.

What are your thoughts on New York tonight?

Nicholas Chase34 said:edit: adding a pick:
01:00, Brandon Jennings, pick: under 19.5 points @ 1.85, Pinnacle
The actual line should probably be closer to 17.5, so I'm more than happy to grab this 19.5.

Pinnacle dropped it to 17.5 🙄

Hey Pinnacle fans, I think I got a bit mixed up here—the actual threshold really ought to be 30.5 points, could someone take a look and fix that? 🤣 😂 🤷