NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Nicholas Chase34 said:SS dropped it to 17.5 🙄

Hey SS crowd, I'm a bit confused here. The actual line should probably be 30.5 points—can we get a correction? 🤣 😂 🤷

Doesn't matter... I could drop it down to 5 if I wanted. 🤣

At this point, the over is worth a shot. Just looking at that 17-point mark. 🤣

I remember when they dropped the under 22.5 for Jeremy Lin in the Lottery from 1.85 to 1.45, and the guy ended up dropping 27.

Nicholas Chase34 said:SS dropped it down to 17.5 🙄

Hey, SS crowd—I think I’m getting a little turned around here. I mean, wouldn't the actual line really be closer to 30.5 points? Maybe there's a mistake... could someone check that? 🤣 😂 🤷

🤣
Man, they are absolutely pathetic. Just terrible. 🤦

shadowjackal27 said:It doesn't really matter... I could easily drop down to 5 points if things go south🤣

Honestly, taking the over feels like a solid move here. Just looking for those 17 points to land.🤣

I still remember back when the Lottery shifted the under 22.5 for Jeremy Lin from 1.85 down to 1.45, and then the guy just goes out there and drops 27.

😂 Hold off for now, man. You know the folks over at Pinnacle are just waiting to pounce.🤣

If they happen to drop the line to 15.5, expect some major shifts—that’s when hitting the over actually starts looking tempting.😂

Nicholas Chase34 said:😂 Don't jump the gun; they're waiting on Pinnacle too. 🤣

If they happen to drop it to 15.5, expect some shifts. That's when an over might actually be worth looking at. 😂

I'm not sure—do you really think the SS guys will drop it by at least another basket?
I'll take the over on 17 regardless, but I won't be betting the house on it.

If they move it down to 15 or 16, then I'm in for a standard unit, similar to what I'd play on an under 19.5.

I highly doubt they'll lower the line. It’s more likely they'll just shave the odds on the under 17.5 to something like 1.70. Ultimately, it all depends on Pinnacle, and I'm not entirely sure how aggressive they tend to be with adjusting lines and odds. 🙂

shadowjackal27 said:I’m not really sure, you think they’ll drop the line in the SS by at least another bucket?
I’m probably going to take the over on this 17.5 anyway, just nothing crazy large.

If they move it down to 15 or 16, then I’ll jump in with a standard stake, basically what I’d put on an under 19.5.

Honestly, I highly doubt they'll lower the number; it's more likely they'll just shave the odds on the under 17.5 to something like 1.70. Then again, it all comes down to how Pinnacle moves, and I haven't quite figured out their vibe when it comes to tweaking lines and odds...🙂

Well, looks like Pinnacle just posted 17.5, so there won't be any line adjustments happening here.😁

But hey, keep a close eye on those odds shifts over at the SS.🤣

shadowjackal27 said:I don't know, you think they'll drop the line in the SS by at least one more point?
I'll probably take the over on 17 regardless, just nothing too crazy.

If it drops to 15 or 16, maybe I'll put down a standard stake, like I would for an under 19.5.

So you really think it lands somewhere between 16 and 19.😁

Thomas Cook54 said:So, you actually think he’s going to sink it between 16 and 19?😁

I mean, let's just say I'm thinking. But that’s just wishful thinking...
Maybe somewhere between 12 and 20 could squeeze in. ☕

shadowjackal27 said:I mean, I guess that's just how I see it. But maybe I'm just being hopeful...
Maybe someone between 12 and 20 could squeeze in there. I guess. ☕

And if he drops another 7 like last time? I guess. Maybe.😁 Yeah, that's how it should work. A couple of points could definitely make the difference, but I still ended up sticking with the under, even though I already placed my bet before they dropped the margin...

Thomas Cook54 said:And what if they drop another 7 points like last time?😁 Honestly, that’s how it should go. A couple of extra buckets could change things, but I’m sticking with the under, even though I already placed my bet once they lowered the margin...

I don't see them pulling off back-to-back blowouts against this squad. Between Dwight Howard dominating the glass and Nelson being in the mix, I doubt we'll see a massive scoring outburst. I also have a hunch Orlando's shooters might cool off today; hitting over 10 threes every single night isn't sustainable. Staying at 18 points feels like the safest bet to keep things simple.☕ 🤣 😍

shadowjackal27 said:I don't really see them blowing them out two games in a row. Maybe not huge scoring either, given Dwight Howard's rebounding and Nelson being there. I have a feeling Orlando's threes might dry up today; hitting over 10 per game every night seems unlikely. Staying around 18 points would probably be enough to keep things quiet in Canada. ☕ 🤣 😍

I can't go lower than 17.5😁 But I put that on the public spread since they lowered the margin. I should probably bet heavier on Orlando; they won 7 of their last 9, and the Bucks haven't won in Orlando in 7 years.

I’ve got a gut feeling we’re looking at a total blowout for Orlando here, mostly because the Bucks seem to be hitting a bit of a rough patch right now 🤷

So, Orlando -13.5 @ 3.3 SS

Play, would you mind checking how Milwaukee handles three-point defense if it isn't too much trouble? 🙂

Arthur Hill2 said:Hey Play, if you don't mind, could you do me a quick favor and check out how Milwaukee is holding up when it comes to defending the three? 🙂

Right now, the Bucks are sitting at 19th in the league for three-point defense, allowing about 35.6%. 🙂
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat...hree-point-pct

Nicholas Chase34 said:The Bucks are currently sitting at 19th in the league when it comes to three-point defense, shooting 35.6%. 🙂
Check out these NBA three-point percentage stats over at TeamRankings. It’s a solid breakdown if you're looking to dig into the numbers.

I didn't know that.🤣

And they’ve dropped to third place for the third straight time. Just great.🤣

The only thing that really bugs me is the fact that when they play on the road, the best team in the league gets their three-point shooting completely stifled.

Rondo over 14.5

Portland vs LA Clippers

but yeah, fatigue just caught up with the Blazers in the closing minutes🙂

since I missed out on catching that @Play Brandon Jennings post, here’s what’s actually catching my eye from the rest of this lineup:

Philadelphia vs Dallas 1 @1.75 (so, like Play already mentioned, the Mavericks are playing without West and Terry today—and maybe even Beaubois too, which honestly feels like too much of a handicap for them on this road trip, especially since it's one of the toughest spots in the league)

OKC/Golden State(98.5)- Golden State under @1.85 (games between these two have traditionally been high-octane affairs with fast paces on both sides, but I've got a feeling things might shift a bit this time. Honestly, I think OKC is more than capable of locking down some decent defense and keeping the Warriors under the 100-point mark; the Warriors are coming off a total letdown at home against a depleted Portland where they only managed 91 points; they're dealing with some injury issues and, looking at their recent performances, I don't think either Ellis or Curry are quite at 100% for this matchup; plus, I'm not convinced Nate Robinson is going to hold his own against Westbrook the way he did against Felton, and I doubt Lee will have an easy night either; I just think the margin is set a tiny bit too high this time around🤷)

and I'm also leaning slightly toward Detroit @1.75 and Cleveland(+9.5) @1.85🤷

Nicholas Chase34 said:The Bucks are currently sitting at 19th in the league regarding three-point shooting percentage (35.6%).🙂
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat...hree-point-pct

Thanks. If Orlando ends up crushing anyone, it’ll be strictly because they’re living by the three. They don't really have a cohesive plan beyond that. It's the same way the Heat tore things up; they were even worse back in '21.

I'm going to sit down now and run through some independent analysis. I'll likely suggest Jeremy Lin under immediately if it turns out Carmelo Anthony is actually playing tonight. :-)

from Twitter 31 min ago

As expected, Carmelo Anthony is sitting this one out. ☕

#Knicks Reports say Carmelo Anthony is ruled out for tonight's matchup. I guess we won't be seeing that #Linsanity and Melo debut just yet.

I’m feeling this vibe

Lakers-Suns under 186.5 (Play already called it)
Dirk Nowitzki over 21.5 (They're missing Terry, West, and Beaubois—but honestly, Terry is the big one since he’s basically the primary ball-handler for Dallas. Because of that, I’m eyeing more shots for Nowitzki. They sat yesterday and they're out tomorrow too, so there shouldn't be any weirdness with rotation minutes, plus Philly is pretty shaky defending isolation plays... I’m leaning toward the over here, no doubt)😁
Amaré Stoudemire over 21.5 (The visitors are without Emeka Okafor, Landry, and Smith—all solid guys, and really high-level defenders at that... word is Melo is out for the Knicks, too. If Jeremy Lin wasn't shooting so much, I could see Amare hitting the over, maybe even something like 25 points🙂... plus the Hornets are pretty bad at defending the post-up and the pick-and-roll—perfect for Lin & Amara—not to mention those cuts where the Knicks are actually elite)

GS at 10.5, I took 15.5, total bet 10/10
Oklahoma's missing Perkins and Sefolova, plus Durant's dealing with some stomach issues, though he's still expected to suit up.

Can we really expect the Cavaliers to cover that two-point spread against the Heat? It’s an interesting matchup to consider, isn't it?
Is there anything more exhilarating than seeing a series kick off with such high stakes? Looking at this matchup between OKC and the Golden State Warriors, can we really afford to overlook how much momentum shifts after just one game?
Lakers-Suns - 1
New York Knicks - New Orleans Pelicans - 1
Could there be anything more invigorating than watching the Jazz take on the Wizards? It truly feels like we are witnessing a fascinating matchup unfold, doesn't it?
Could we perhaps consider the possibility that Jeremy Lin might finish with under 20.5 points tonight?
Could Marc Gasol go over 15.5 points tonight? I'm feeling pretty optimistic about it!
Kobe hit 27.5 points—what an incredible performance!
I simply have to say, I am absolutely loving that 24.5 line—doesn't it just feel like the right call?