NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Bryan Adams6 · 2012-02-09T07:36:57+00:00

Where’d Keith Moore21 disappear to? My mom is looking for him... 🤣🤣 Next time I'm just gonna blame you for blowing my par, since I already picked the LA Clippe…

Keith Moore21 Active Member

56 messages
joined Jun 2014

#261 · Feb 14, 2012

I think these two picks look pretty solid

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz under 200.5
Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards under 193.5

First off, just looking at the numbers—like how much Oklahoma City Thunder puts up and allows at home versus how Utah Jazz performs on the road—it feels like an under to me. Plus, the Jazz are on a brutal b2b2b stretch, so I’m banking on them being gassed and maybe having a slightly worse shooting percentage than usual...
Second, I don't know, my gut says the line just looks way too high🤣 and when you look at their head-to-head matchups, an under seems totally plausible...

Arthur Hill2 Member

20 messages
joined Jul 2009

#262 · Feb 14, 2012

Odigrao:

Jeremy Lin under 19.5—with Amar'e Stoudemire returning to the lineup, the scoring numbers for this sensational player, who looks like a future MVP, should take a significant dip. The Pick and Roll with Amar'e Stoudemire will be the main course tonight.

Carlos Boozer over 16.5—the man known as the "bum destroyer" holds his highest averages against teams with sub-.500 records, which aligns perfectly with the squad facing the Bulls tonight. The absence of Derrick Rose should only help this bet.

LeBron James in the duel against Kevin Durant—James put up 35 points in just 30 minutes recently, but Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder should have an easy night against a tired Utah Jazz team playing their third game in three nights.

Good luck to everyone.

stormyseal9 Member

20 messages
joined Oct 2011

#263 · Feb 14, 2012

Arthur Hill2 said:The breakdown:

Jeremy Lin under 19.5—look, Amar'e Stoudemire is coming back into the lineup, so you gotta assume the shooting numbers for this sensational guy, who’s basically the future MVP, are gonna take a massive hit, especially since the main course tonight is going to be those Pick and Roll plays with Amar'e.

Carlos Boozer over 16.5—our man Carlos Boozer, better known as the "bum destroyer," always puts up his biggest numbers against teams with sub-.500 records, which fits perfectly with the squad facing the Bulls tonight. Plus, having Derrick Rose out should really help this bet go through.

LeBron James vs Kevin Durant—LeBron dropped 35 points in just 30 minutes the other night, but Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder should have an easy ride against a tired Utah Jazz team playing their third straight game.

Good luck everyone.

You really gotta watch out with Durant because at home he averages about 15 shots and plays around 35 minutes,🤷 unlike on the road where he takes 5 more shots and stays on the floor 5 minutes longer, and honestly, that applies to Russell Westbrook too,🤷 I mean, it might not mean anything, but hitting over 28.5 is gonna be a tough climb,🤷 and even I'm not feeling super confident about LeBron since Dwyane Wade plays so well against the Pacers,☕ anyway, good luck to all.😉

Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer

1 message
joined Sep 2011

#264 · Feb 14, 2012

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns
under 107.5 @ 1.85

I honestly feel like the bookies went a bit overboard setting the line this high for Denver, especially since they've been averaging just about 99.2 points over their last five games and have only cleared this mark once—that was against the Indiana Pacers, where they absolutely dominated the paint. On the flip side, the Phoenix Suns are giving up around 96.3 points per game and they boast a pretty stout interior defense, which is usually the bread and butter for the Nuggets' offense.
Denver is currently dealing with some absences, missing Danilo Gallinari (17 PPG), Nene (13.4 PPG), and Timofey Mozgov (5.7 PPG).
With Gallinari out, Denver's offensive rhythm has definitely taken a hit, and losing Nene on top of that makes hitting that 108-point mark feel like quite an uphill battle.

Chicago Bulls vs Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings +19.5 @ 1.3

The Bulls are still playing without Derrick Rose due to those lingering back issues, and while they're still a squad capable of pulling off wins, they aren't exactly blowing people out right now. Because of that, I’m leaning towards the Kings being able to at least keep it within a reasonable margin and avoid getting blown out by 20+. GL!

☕

Arthur Hill2 Member

20 messages
joined Jul 2009

#265 · Feb 14, 2012

It's official: Derrick Rose is out:

@KCJHoop
K.C. Johnson
Thibodeau has officially ruled Derrick Rose out vs. Kings. Mike James might get some minutes. He didn't show up for the shootaround, but he is expected to be there for tip-off.

Joshua Gonzalez33 Active Member

150 messages
joined Jan 2012

#266 · Feb 14, 2012

Jeremy Lin under 21.5

paired with 2 quotes at 1.05... lets go Jose Calderon 😁

Thomas Cook54 Member

41 messages
joined Jan 2012

#267 · Feb 14, 2012

Arthur Hill2 said:If Amar'e Stoudemire comes back, I guess Jeremy Lin might go under. 20 points is a lot, and Jose Calderon is decent on defense. 🤷

Regardless of Amar'e, Jeremy Lin should probably get plenty of shots. He’s proven himself, and his team seems to trust him—against the Timberwolves, they shot 1-for-11 in the second half and he still had the ball in the final play. Plus, Rubio is a solid defender in my opinion, so scoring 20 is tough. We'll see. It's a risky Pick and Roll bet, but I'm leaning toward the over.

Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer

1 message
joined Sep 2011

#268 · Feb 14, 2012

The teams Jeremy Lin has been facing lately haven't really had much bite when it comes to transition defense, which let him just cruise right past them with that quickness of his. Now he’s heading out to face the Toronto Raptors, and those guys actually know how to get back and set up their defense pretty efficiently. On top of that, we've got Amar'e back in the mix, ready to tear things up in the Pick and Roll, which is an area where the Raptors' defense tends to show a little bit of weakness. 🤷

Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer

1 message
joined Sep 2011

#269 · Feb 14, 2012

Kobe Bryant
pick: under 28.5 points @ 1.85 SS

Kobe Bryant is looking at a pretty tough matchup tonight against Joe Johnson, who’s been putting in some serious work on the defensive end lately. Plus, the Atlanta Hawks are currently sitting at 5th in the league when it comes to points allowed per Shooting Guard.
Since Kobe relies so heavily on isolation plays—we're talking about a third of his shots right there—along with post-ups and running the Pick and Roll as the ball-handler, he's running into a wall because the Hawks are actually elite in those areas, especially defending isolation where they rank #2, even if they are a bit softer in the post at #15. Honestly, hitting 29 points feels like a bit of a stretch for him unless he's pumping up the volume to at least 25-30 shots 🤣 while staying super efficient. For a game like this, I feel like the realistic ceiling should be closer to 25.5 or 26.5, so I just have to grab the under. ☕

Thomas Cook54 Member

41 messages
joined Jan 2012

#270 · Feb 14, 2012

Nicholas Chase34 said:Kobe Bryant
pick: under 28.5 points @ 1.85 SS

Kobe Bryant has a tough matchup tonight against Joe Johnson, who plays really solid defense. Plus, the Atlanta Hawks are currently ranked 5th in points allowed at the SG position.
KOBE's offensive game relies heavily on isolation (about a third of his shots), post-ups, and playing the ball-handler in the Pick and Roll, but the Hawks are pretty good there—especially defending isolations (#2)—even if they're a bit weaker in the post (#15). I guess 29 points might be asking too much from him; he'd probably need at least 25-30 shots 🤣 with decent efficiency to hit that. A more realistic line for a game like this would be around 25.5-26.5, so I feel like I have to take the under. ☕

Where are you getting those stats? Maybe a link to the site?

Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer

1 message
joined Sep 2011

#271 · Feb 14, 2012

Thomas Cook54 said:Hey, where are you pulling those stats from? Any chance you could drop a link to the site?

http://www.hoopsstats.com
http://www.mysynergysports.com

Maria Long10 Newcomer

1 message
joined May 2009

#272 · Feb 14, 2012

Nicholas Chase34 As requested:
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns
Under 107.5 at 1.85.

I honestly think the oddsmakers went a bit overboard by setting the line this high for the Denver Nuggets. If you look at their recent stretch, they’ve been averaging just 99.2 points over the last five games, and they've only managed to clear this specific threshold once—and that was against the Indiana Pacers, a game where they absolutely dominated the paint. On the other side, the Phoenix Suns are giving up an average of 96.3 points per game and they boast a pretty stout interior defense, which is exactly what the Nuggets rely on to fuel their offense.
The Denver Nuggets are facing some serious setbacks right now. They're heading into this matchup without Danilo Gallinari (17 PPG), Nene (13.4 PPG), and Timofey Mozgov (5.7 PPG) in the lineup. That is a massive amount of scoring and interior presence to be missing all at once.
The Denver Nuggets' offense definitely feels a bit more vulnerable right now. Between losing Danilo Gallinari and having Nene out as well, pushing past that 108-point mark is going to be a much tougher climb than usual.

For instance, looking at the Favorites, the line is set at under 108.5 at 1.85 odds. It’s wild how much weight a single basket carries in these matchups; one solitary point can be the difference between a win and a loss on your ticket. 🙄.

Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer

1 message
joined Sep 2011

#273 · Feb 14, 2012

Kevin Cruz46 said:For instance, if you look at the favorite, the under is set at 108.5 with odds of 1.85. It’s crazy how much a single point can change everything in a game like this. 🙄.

I totally get where you're coming from, I've seen those numbers too, but the sportsbook doesn't have the specific handicap for the Chicago Bulls game that I'm trying to pair up with my bet. 🙄

Maria Long10 Newcomer

1 message
joined May 2009

#274 · Feb 14, 2012

Nicholas Chase34 said:I know, I've seen it, but my favorite sportsbook doesn't offer the specific handicap for the Chicago Bulls game that I'm trying to parlay. 🙄

So, you're absolutely certain that even 107.5 would be enough? 🙂 .

Alright, let me clarify something. It’s happened a few times now where I’ve just automatically assumed that the margin posted on the forum was the absolute best deal available for that specific bet (at least based on what we usually see at our local US sportsbooks). Then, after I've already placed my wager, I realize there were actually better margins available—maybe by a point or two—even with the exact same odds. So, from now on, I’m double-checking everything first. 🙄

Joshua Garcia8 Member

11 messages
joined Mar 2012

#275 · Feb 14, 2012

Kevin Cruz46 said:So, you're sure 107.5 is enough 🙂.

Fine. It's just that a few times I've automatically assumed the margin posted on the forum was the best deal available (at least for our local sportsbooks). Then I place the bet and realize there were actually better margins by a basket or two for the exact same odds. Checking 🙄
now.

🙄

Why are you posting on the IMF sportsbook site? Looks like you really stick to your guns.

Patrick Wells2 Newcomer

4 messages
joined Feb 2012

#276 · Feb 14, 2012

What are your thoughts on Chris Bosh over 16.5? Personally, I'm leaning toward the under.

Anthony James69 Newcomer

3 messages
joined Sep 2008

#277 · Feb 14, 2012

Los Angeles Lakers over 91.5 at 1.85... that's a solid value...

vividbison47 Member

20 messages
joined Aug 2021

#278 · Feb 14, 2012

wall J. (15.5) - Por-Was over 1.85 👍

fadedcrane46 Newcomer

1 message
joined Sep 2008

#279 · Feb 14, 2012

So what are we thinking for tonight, guys? Based on what Nicholas Chase34 was saying about how the Raptors defend, I’m feeling like maybe we could take Toronto Moneyline at 2.84 on Pinny, or even just take them at +5? I mean, if you actually look at the numbers, Toronto was a 5-point underdog against both Boston and the Los Angeles Lakers during their last two home games and they covered both—they actually beat Boston and almost took down the Lakers too. Like, why are the New York Knicks such a big deal all of a sudden??? Amar'e Stoudemire is coming back, but honestly, the real question is whether he's even mentally ready after his brother's passing... and besides, the Knicks were doing just fine without him anyway...

Maria Long10 Newcomer

1 message
joined May 2009

#280 · Feb 14, 2012

Joshua Garcia8 said:🙄

So why are you posting on the IMF betting board? I see you really value your word.

Fair enough. You caught me.

With a heavy heart, I decided to break my promise and go against my word because I felt it was in everyone's best interest. See, so many people follow Nicholas Chase34's picks (myself included). What if the game ends up being a 108-point total, and that one extra point proves decisive for someone who placed their bet on SS instead of Favorite? Even though I knew I could have pointed that out, I didn't. That would have haunted me for a while.

But alright. I’m starting the countdown today! :-).

P.S. Is it just me, or is the forum acting up with the emoticons?

NBA Betting: Vol. 2

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