NBA Betting: Vol. 2

So, based on the latest news that Amar'e Stoudemire is out (RIP Rip Hazell), I really think it’s worth taking a shot at Carmelo Anthony over 25.5, and I'm also throwing in a bet on the New York Knicks - Utah Jazz game going under 194.5.

Luigi Gallinari over 16.5 @ 1.85

The Houston Rockets have a defensive unit that struggles big time protecting the paint—they're sitting at #27 in the league right now—and Gallinari is exactly the kind of player who averages about four shots per game right at the rim, whether he's doing layups or driving for dunks. Since this matchup looks like it's going to be high-tempo with plenty of scoring opportunities, I'm expecting a few easy points for Gallinari on the fast break, plus he'll definitely draw some fouls, which should easily push him over the line; honestly, this line feels at least two points lower than it actually should be. 🤷

I’m putting some moderate action on the Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks today.. Good luck to everyone 🙂

Today, I actually find myself liking a whole stack of picks, which is a rare occurrence for me.

Orlando Magic - LA Clippers - 2 ...Even though they’ve won their last three, I wouldn't trust them as far as I can throw them (I’m barely counting the wins against Cleveland and Washington; only the Indiana win actually counts). On the other hand, the Clippers look like a much more cohesive unit in great form. That loss to the Denver Nuggets came right after a grueling win against the Utah Jazz, and Denver's pace simply overwhelmed them.

DeMar DeRozan (15.5) - Over ...He put on a hell of a performance last night, and he should be able to replicate that tonight against a weak Washington Wizards squad.

John Wall (15.5) - Over ...Playing at home against two sub-par teams, scoring 4 buckets per quarter shouldn't be an issue.

Andre Iguodala (13.5) - Over ...I’m always waiting for this guy to finally explode and significantly bump up his averages. It’s a heavy matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers today, meaning it could go either way, which usually translates to high minutes. Even though they've caught me off guard before by absolutely demolishing opponents—they have the largest point differential in the league—if they want this win, I think they'll need him to step up. 4-5 field goals and 4-5 free throws, and he hits it.

Luigi Gallinari (16.5) - Over ...Last game, when I took him, he fell just short of the margin. Not a bad showing, as he can always chip in, but for me, Gallinari is a lock for the over whenever they face teams like the Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns, or Golden State Warriors. He's a safe bet in my book, and today is no different. In a high-scoring game, I expect an easy over.

Kevin Martin (21.5) - Over ...After two unders in a row, I'm expecting another explosion from Martin, especially tonight with the fast transition play and plenty of shot attempts. I just hope nobody gets blown out too badly and he doesn't spend too much time riding the pine. It seems to be becoming a trend where he disappears toward the end of the first or start of the second half, only to reappear late in the game.

Mo Williams (21.5) - Over ...They're missing half their roster, so if they want to avoid a total disaster, they're going to need a real performance from Williams. Honestly, because of how bad things could go, I'm even hesitant to touch Derrick Rose. That's my riskiest play.

Brooklyn Nets (+8.5) - Chicago Bulls - 2 ...Everything has been said. The Nets playing with a second-string lineup offers very little hope.

There we have it. Now I just have to decide which three plays to actually pull the trigger on.

Bet on Trpajte Mela over 25,5. Stodmajer isn't playing tonight because his brother was killed in a car crash.

stormygull7 said:Trpajte Mela over 25.5. Stodmajer isn't playing tonight due to the tragic loss of his brother in a car accident.

Do you really think it’s such a "sure thing"
..the way you're framing it, anyway..

Lisa Ramos59 said:Do you really think he's that much of a "sure thing"
..the way you're presenting him, anyway..

Who else is going to step up if he doesn't? 🙂 They need to wake up, otherwise they're getting nothing out of the playoffs. And honestly, if Amar'e Stoudemire were actually here, I’d be all in on Mel's over, especially since the Utah Jazz have the slowest perimeter defense in the league—they couldn't stop Mel even if they tried a few tricks.

And if Melo was playing like his old self from last year, we might actually stand a chance...
But right now? His shooting is absolutely pathetic... going 3-for-15 is just pure nonsense...
Still, I think I’m going to end up playing him anyway... as long as Jeremy Lin doesn't go out there and drop 40 points on us...

So, what’s the take on the Brooklyn Nets at -91... they’re missing a ton of guys right now... and the Chicago Bulls are actually putting on a decent defensive show... but let's be real, the Brooklyn Nets always seem to find a way to drop 90+ points, damn it... and they really shouldn't be doing it this time
Thoughts?

Don't go thinking Jeremy Lin is going to have a night like that every single time. It was really just a byproduct of a poor scouting report—basically, the team wasn't prepared for his specific moves.

steelhawk12 said:So what's the vibe on the Nets hitting 91... they're missing a ton of guys... and the Bulls play such solid defense... but man, the Nets always seem to find a way to crack 90 points somehow, ugh... they really shouldn't be doing it now
Thoughts?

My take? It passes. The Bulls have been keeping teams well under 90 lately, and they definitely should handle these Nets, especially since they've got all those injury issues going on right now.

I just caught the highlights from that Chicago Bulls vs. Brooklyn Nets game, and honestly, even without Luol Deng and Gibson, the Bulls still walked away with a 15-point win. Now, looking ahead, the Nets are dealing with way more injuries, while the Bulls aren't even at full strength yet—they probably won't have Carmelo Anthony in the lineup either. In my opinion, the spread should definitely be wider than it is; I’m thinking they need to go past -8.

Something like this would be a more realistic look...
Melo +25
The Nets lose by more than 8.

Since the Houston Rockets are basically a sieve when it comes to defending the rim, I'm thinking Luigi Gallinari should go over... right?
The line is 17.5
honestly, seems like an easy over to me...

Washington Wizards - Toronto Raptors 2nd Half 2 @ 2.10
Philadelphia 76ers - Los Angeles Lakers 2nd Half 2 @ 2.05
Brooklyn Nets - Chicago Bulls 2nd Half 1 @ 3.20
Atlanta Hawks - Phoenix Suns 2nd Half 2 @ 2.65
New York Knicks - Utah Jazz 2nd Half 2 @ 2.10
Denver Nuggets - Houston Rockets 2nd Half 2 @ 2.50

This is pretty much how I've been playing for quite some time now—just testing the waters. If it hits, it hits. So far, I’ve managed to catch this parlay twice. 🙄

Man, I really wish I’d seen this coming... now it’s too late.
http://www.denverpost.com/nuggets/ci_19903923

Honestly, I think it’s worth trying to play the spread on this one.

It’s decent news for the Luigi Gallinari over, though I suppose it’s a bit of a double-edged sword now; the defense might actually step up their game because of it.

If you ask me, this situation plays right into Kevin Martin's hands... assuming he doesn't have another absolute disaster of a game tomorrow. If things stabilize, Luis Scola starts looking like a serious option again.

I spent some time diving into the numbers today—looking at 10 different matchups:

John Wall (-15.5+)-Washington Wizards - Toronto Raptors (02/07, 01:00)
Over
1.85
Chris Paul (-17.5+)-Orlando Magic - LA Clippers (02/07, 01:00)
Over
1.70
Luigi Gallinari (-16.5+)-Denver Nuggets - Houston Rockets (02/07, 03:00)
Over
1.70
Derrick Rose (-25.5+)-Brooklyn Nets - Chicago Bulls (02/07, 01:30)
Over
1.85
Carmelo Anthony (-25.5+)-New York Knicks - Utah Jazz (02/07, 01:30)
Over
1.70
Orlando Magic - LA Clippers (02/07, 01:00)
2
1.95
Washington Wizards - Toronto Raptors (02/07, 01:00)
1
1.60
New York Knicks - Utah Jazz (02/07, 01:30)
1
1.75
Brooklyn Nets - Chicago Bulls (02/07, 01:30)
2
1.25
Atlanta Hawks - Phoenix Suns (02/07, 01:30)
1
1.35

Arthur Hill2 said:I suppose if I had to make a call on this one, I might lean toward the idea that the Chicago Bulls could cover a spread of -8.5, though I'm really trying not to be too certain about it. It feels like one of those situations where you have to weigh a lot of different factors, but perhaps there's enough momentum there to justify looking at them in that light.

It seems like the Brooklyn Nets are going to be facing some significant challenges, especially considering they’ll be playing without Robin Lopez, Zoran Okur, Stevenson, and Jordan Morrow, not to mention the absence of Brooks. I suppose it's going to be quite an uphill battle for them given those roster gaps. I believe he was the one who received permission to take some time off due to a death in the family.

It seems like the Chicago Bulls have managed to get Luol Deng back into the rotation, which is certainly a boost for them, though I suppose my only lingering concern might be that they're facing the Brooklyn Nets—a matchup that historically hasn't gone particularly well for Chicago.

I suppose one might consider taking a chance on Deron Williams going over his projected stats, especially since he seems to be the only truly capable player left on that roster right now..

James Taylor3 said:

I suppose if we're looking ahead to the matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and the Chicago Bulls, there's quite a bit to consider regarding how both squads are shaping up. It feels like one of those games where you have to weigh the individual matchups very carefully, as neither side seems to have a definitive edge that jumps out immediately. I guess you could argue that the momentum might swing toward one side or the other depending on how the rotation settles in, though it’s hard to say for certain without seeing how they handle the pace. Maybe the Bulls find a way to control the tempo, or perhaps the Nets manage to disrupt their rhythm early on. It’s a bit of a toss-up, really, but I'll be watching closely to see which direction this one leans.
I’ve been looking closely at the upcoming matchup, and if I had to make a call, I think I’d lean toward the Chicago Bulls covering that -8.5 spread. It feels like one of those games where the momentum might just swing heavily in their direction, though I suppose there’s always a chance things could go sideways. Still, my gut tells me Chicago is going to pull this one out by a decent margin.

I suppose the odds are sitting at around 1.87, if I'm reading that correctly.

Log entry: May 10th.

I suppose it’s fairly obvious to anyone paying attention that the Chicago Bulls are a significantly better squad than the Brooklyn Nets. It seems like common knowledge at this point, doesn't it? It seems like there might be some questions regarding whether Derrick Rose will suit up for tonight's game, but from what I gather, he actually intends to play despite dealing with some pain.It seems that the only injury on the Chicago Bulls roster right now is Carmelo Anthony.

I have a quick question for Arthur Hill2 and James Taylor3... I’ve been following your moves for a while now, and since you've been more or less successful so far, I suppose there isn't really any reason why tonight shouldn't be the same.

If I’m looking at this from a casual observer's perspective, I suppose the home team is currently struggling with four players missing from their rotation. It seems like Deron Williams is really the only legitimate threat left on the floor, and since he usually puts up around 20 points, my gut feeling is that almost everything is going to flow through him tonight. Given that, I wonder if hitting the over might be a realistic play here. I noticed they set the margin at 21, which feels a bit strange to me, though I could be mistaken.

It seems like the Chicago Bulls might end up breaking up the Brooklyn Nets roster quite soon. I suppose Derrick Rose is dealing with a bit of an injury issue—maybe James Taylor3 is onto something there? If the Bulls manage to grab a lead of, say, 15 points, I really don't see any reason why they would continue to push Rose so hard. In my estimation, he’ll likely see about a 30% reduction in his minutes. Plus, with Luol Deng making his return to the lineup, it feels like Rose might naturally take fewer shots. Honestly, looking at him lately, does he even look like he's under 25 anymore?

Thank you.

I'm not quite sure how serious that injury actually is, but you have to take into account that the Bulls coach is sticking with his core rotation despite those growing leads.

Luol Deng participated in the entire practice with no issues. Derrick Rose took some time off due to a stiff back, but he's set to play Monday vs. Brooklyn Nets. #Bulls

I agree regarding Deron Williams; he really should be an over bet because he's practically become the only reliable player left on this roster.

Played:
LA Clippers x2
Deron Williams over
Chicago Bulls -8,5
Carmelo Anthony over

Just to add my two cents, the Los Angeles Lakers are playing without their head coach tonight.

I've been digging into the head-to-head stats between the Atlanta Hawks and the Phoenix Suns, and man, it's pretty wild. Out of their last 10 matchups where Atlanta played at home, they've only pulled off a win twice. It’s pretty clear the Phoenix Suns just have their number whenever they head out on the road 🤷
I was thinking about taking the spread (+7.5) or maybe even going for the 2-win bet at 3.90
Do you guys think it's worth a shot if I keep the stakes low?