NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Looks like they've got Landry listed as doubtful, so I guess he probably won't be suiting up tonight...

What would be the smarter play here...
LA Clippers - Clippers ML or taking the Clippers +190...

The Clippers are looking solid, but Orlando is on a serious roll right now... If Dwight Howard starts getting aggressive and drags Jordan into foul trouble...
They could easily rack up a ton of points from the field...

Or should I just skip this one entirely?

Pick of the day:
New Jersey - Chicago
pick: under 191,5 points @ 1,85

Amare Stoudemire
pick: over 19,5 points @ 1,85

☕

Nicholas Chase34 said:Pick of the day:
New Jersey - Chicago
pick: under 191.5 points @ 1.85

Amare Stoudemire
pick: over 19.5 points @ 1.85

☕

Moses, can you please explain why you're taking the Amare Stoudemire over? I mean, sure, they dropped the margin by a couple of buckets, but looking at the trends, this guy is constantly hitting the under, even when it's set lower than this... I was actually leaning toward the under myself, so maybe you can talk some sense into me and convince me otherwise....

thanks

steelhawk12 said:But what's the deal with all those injuries hanging over the Hornets?
Between J. Jack, Carl Landry, and that center Smith who took like three hits to the head last game and had to exit...
Has anyone actually seen anything official saying they're definitely out, instead of just being listed as game-time decisions?

If those guys aren't playing... then I guess SAC should take this one, damn it...

http://www.nola.com/hornets/index.ss...ward_ca_5.html

Landry's out for a couple of weeks😉

Anthony over 24.5 at 1.85
Rose over 24.5 at 1.85
Evans over 17.5 at 1.85
Westbrook over 21.5 at 1.85
Aldridge over 22.5 at 1.85
Parker under 20.5 at 1.85
177.5/Philly-LA over 1.85
191.5/New Jersey-Chicago under 1.85
208.5/Denver-Houston under 1.85 HL

Going for an 8/9 system, feeling lucky🤷🙂

darkgull11 said:So, you're asking why I’m leaning toward the Amare Stoudemire over? Look, I get where you're coming from—they did trim the margin by two buckets, which definitely changes the math a bit. But honestly, if you've been watching him lately, you know the guy is practically living in the under territory. He’s consistently hitting below that line, sometimes even dipping way under what people expect. I was actually eyeing the under myself, so I'm curious to hear your take—maybe you can talk me out of it if you've got a better angle!

Thanks!

Alright, here’s the breakdown of why I’m leaning toward the over:

A few days ago, C. Anthony decided he was going to stop playing hero and actually start looking for Amare on the court, and honestly, since he started playing more unselfishly and sharing the load, the Knicks have looked like a totally different team.

Amare is such a classic home-court hero, honestly; he absolutely lives for playing in front of his own fans, especially since his scoring average jumps up by a solid 3.3 points when he’s playing at home compared to when he's on the road.

Let’s take a quick look back at how he’s been performing lately. If we jump back to January 28th when he went up against Houston, he really found his rhythm, dropping 23 points while shooting a solid 10-for-20 from the field. After that, he faced off against Detroit and put up 15 points in about 30.5 minutes of action, shooting 5-of-11. Honestly, he probably could have easily padded those stats even more, but there just wasn't any need to push it since the Knicks were already cruising toward a massive lead and an easy win.

After that, the Bulls took over at the Garden, and Amare absolutely went off, dropping a season-high 34 points while shooting 16-of-27 against a Goozer defense that’s usually tough to crack. Once they headed out to Boston, you wouldn't have expected much of a fireworks show, but even then, Garnett and Bass managed to step up with 16 points apiece on 7-of-15 shooting.
The Knicks hosted the Nets earlier, and man, Amare was absolutely on fire, dropping 17 points in just 25 minutes of action. He honestly could have easily doubled that if he’d stayed on the floor longer, but he ran into some serious foul trouble and ended up spending way too much time chilling on the bench instead of cooking.

I’m heading out to watch the Jazz on the road today, and honestly, their defense at the power forward spot looks pretty shaky right now. It feels a little weird to me because Millsap is usually such a rock on the defensive end, but you can't really argue with what the stat sheet is showing. The numbers are telling a different story lately, since the Jazz have been letting opponents shoot nearly 50% from that position when they're playing away from home.
Let’s take a look at how those opposing power forwards have been tearing it up over the last few games:
January 25th. Bargnani. 25 points!
January 27th. Odom. Nineteen points.
January 28th. J. Thompson Fourteen points.
January 30th. Aldridge. 25 points!
Blake Griffin I can't quite catch what you mean by "31 poen," but if you're looking for some deep thoughts or just want to kick off a conversation, I'm all ears! It feels like one of those moments where you're just waiting for the right vibe to hit, kind of like waiting for a buzzer-beater shot to drop perfectly through the net. Anyway, whatever's on your mind, lay it on me—I'm ready to roll with it!
Lee 23 points.
Gasol is honestly such a vibe when he's on the court, just playing that smooth, high-IQ game that makes everything look easy. Twenty-four points!

It feels like every time we run into the Jazz, they end up living at the free throw line, and honestly, it’s getting a bit predictable. It seems like Millsap and the rest of the crew just aren't interested in playing clean defense, constantly picking up fouls like they're handing them out for free—especially since Millsap is already sitting on three or four fouls per game. It’s like they’d rather just send the other team to the stripe than actually fight through the contact.

Last season, Amare was absolutely tearing it up whenever he faced Utah; I mean, he dropped a massive 34 points at home (going 12-of-15 from the field and perfect from the line at 7-for-7), and then he followed that up with a solid 22 points on the road (5-of-11 shooting and nearly flawless at the stripe, hitting 11 of 12 free throws).

Looking at how things played out, Amare was constantly living at the free throw line, and honestly, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be getting back there three or four times a game today too.

I honestly think these are pretty solid arguments for taking the over at this line, because if you ask me, the only way Amare stays under is if he’s having a truly abysmal shooting night or gets himself buried in foul trouble early on. I really find it hard to imagine any of these teams building up enough of a lead to force the coach to bench him, so I'm feeling good about this one.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Alright, here is why I'm taking the over:

A few days ago, C. Anthony decided to stop being so selfish and actually started looking for his teammate Amare, and honestly, the Knicks are playing way better because of it.

Amare is your classic home-court player; he loves performing in front of his own fans, where his scoring average jumps by about 3.3 points compared to when he's on the road.

Let’s take a quick look at his recent outings. On January 28th against Houston, he dropped 23 points (shooting 10-20), then followed that up against Detroit with 15 points in 30.5 minutes (5-11 shooting)—he could have easily scored more, but there was no need since the Knicks were already cruising toward a win.

Then the Bulls came to the Garden, and Amare absolutely exploded for a season-high 34 points (16-27) against a tough defender like Goozer. After that, we headed to Boston, where you wouldn't necessarily expect much, yet they ran into Garnett and Bass, and he put up 16 points (7-15).
Before this, the Knicks hosted the Nets, and Amare notched 17 points in just 25 minutes; he probably would have gone higher if he hadn't run into foul trouble and spent so much time riding the bench.

Today they face Utah, and their defense at the power forward position is looking pretty shaky, which is weird to me because Millsap is usually such a solid defender. But whatever, the numbers don't lie—the Jazz allow nearly 50% shooting from that spot when playing on the road.
Just look at how opposing power forwards have been scoring lately:
Jan 25. Bargnani 25 points
Jan 27. Odom 19 points
Jan 28. J. Thompson 14 points
Jan 30. Aldridge 25 points
Feb 1. Griffin 31 points
Feb 2. Lee 23 points
Feb 4. Gasol 24 points

Opposing bigs get to the free-throw line constantly against Utah because Millsap (averaging 3.4 fouls per game) and the rest of the crew aren't afraid to play physical.

Last season, Amare tore it up against Utah, dropping 34 points at home (12-15 FG, 7-7 FT) and 22 points on the road (5-11 FG, 11-12 FT).

As you can see, Amare gets to the charity stripe all the time, and I don't see any reason why he won't get there at least 3 or 4 times today.

To me, these are pretty solid reasons to take the over at this line; unless Amare has an absolute nightmare shooting night or gets buried in foul trouble, he hits this. I highly doubt either team will blow them out enough to force him to sit the whole game.

Very nice... thanks.

What was I thinking, picking a game between the two absolute worst teams in the league?
Washington Wizards - Toronto Raptors 1 1,60 7/10
John Wall over 15,5 6/10
So, this matchup features two of the biggest bottom-feeders in the league right now. Honestly, even the Nets look better than them in terms of actual play, if you ask me. John Wall is leading the charge for D.C., but besides showing obvious talent, he isn’t doing much else, which explains why the Wizards' record is such a disaster. They play okay enough at home, but on the road? They’re pathetic—they've only managed one win, and that was against those miserable Bobcats. I still want to believe this Wizards squad has some real depth and could maybe scrape into the 9th or 10th spot in a weak Eastern Conference. On the other hand, Toronto is one of those teams with zero defense guarding the perimeter, which will probably leave a ton of space for the Wizards' best guy, Wall, to work with. A huge advantage for Washington is that they’re playing their second game in two days, while the Raptors are on a back-to-back; the Heat absolutely tore them apart in transition yesterday. Since Wall’s biggest weapon is running the break, I think he might just dismantle Calderon and company. Yesterday's score was a bit deceptive, though; I think the Heat had it totally under control, and whenever the Raptors tried to get close, they just pulled away easily. I seriously doubt DeRozan can pull off another performance like that, especially since I went under on him yesterday—I'm definitely not touching him today. 😁

Blake Griffin under 21,5 6/10
There isn't much to dissect here, even though Orlando is struggling. Howard is consistently performing at his level and just dominating the paint. Blake plays a whole lot better at home, and when they're in LA, I usually hammer the over on him, but taking the under on the road feels like a pretty safe bet, especially with DH12 waiting for him. The Clippers are my favorites to take this one, but they're really going to need Paul, Billups, Mo, and Butler to step up—especially with those jumpers—because I just don't see myself getting much production from Griffin and Jordan in the paint.

Alright, I’ve put these two slips together, so let's see how they play out...

1.
New Jersey-Chicago Bulls (2) 1.25
New Orleans-Sacramento Kings (2) 2.05

2.
New Jersey-Chicago Bulls (2) 1.25
Atlanta Hawks-Phoenix Suns (1) 1.35
Portland(195,5)-Oklahoma City (+) 1.85

Tragic News - Brother Dies in Car Crash - My deepest condolences to the family of Amare Stoudemire

According to reports from TMZ, Amare Stoudemire’s older brother, Hazell Stoudemire, passed away in a car accident earlier this morning.

If he plays tonight, he certainly won't be in the right headspace.

RIP brother.

Is Anthony out?

Did they go a little too far pushing the line from 28.5 up to Durant? This game's gonna be intense. Durant is playing better on the road, but Portland does a solid job covering Kevin... I see the lottery has him at 26.5? What do you guys think?

Martin over 21.5

Just one of those pure statistical picks... I mean, we all know what kind of scorer Martin is, and let's be real, Denver isn't exactly known for having a lockdown defense—their games usually end up being high-scoring shootouts. Plus, statistically speaking, they’re pretty much the worst in the league when it comes to defending the SG position, which is exactly where Martin plays. At home, they're giving up more than 27 points to players at that position. They actually defend the paint way better than they handle perimeter shooting, which is their real Achilles' heel—they're basically bottom-tier at stopping outside shots and guarding the wing... Last game, Martin had a rough one (went 1-10 from the field), so maybe he'll finally find his rhythm today? They don't have a game tomorrow either, so there's no reason to think they'd sit him for any major rest. I'm not expecting some massive blowout where anyone's minutes get weird, so he should probably see his usual workload—around 35 minutes... It's nothing crazy, just a small play, but looking strictly at the numbers, this could definitely hit...

28w/29l ; +21,119 units; ROI: +7.68%

Philadelphia - LA Lakers
Pick: Philadelphia -3.5

Odds: 1.885

Betting Shop: Pinnacle

Unit: 7/10

Philadelphia might be one of the biggest surprises this season—though if you look closer, they aren't really a surprise at all, given their roster and a bench depth that is easily among the best in the league.
Philly is incredibly convincing at home, sitting at 12-3. They recently dismantled Chicago by a massive 16 points. A couple of days ago, they also handled Miami quite convincingly; though that's hardly news, considering the 76ers have become somewhat of a regular customer for the Heat lately. As I mentioned, Philly’s greatest strength is their cohesion—ten solid, high-quality players working in unison without relying on a single "superstar," even if Iguodala is technically the designated leader. Philly boasts the league's best defense, allowing just 86.5 points per game. That number gets even more impressive at home, where they allow an absurd average of just 82.5 points. Some will argue they’ve had an easy schedule, but I wouldn't go that far—they held the Bulls to 82, Orlando to 69, Atlanta to 76, and Indiana to 86, and those are all legitimate playoff contenders. The only teams that gave them much trouble were Miami (99) and Denver (96)—and those are essentially the two best offensive teams in the league, being the only ones averaging over 100 points this season (Denver at 104.63 and Miami at 103.17). Bottom line: Philly hasn't allowed 100 points at home once this season. They aren't dealing with major injury issues either—the forward might have a minor tweak, but he'll likely play—and the return of starting center Hawes is huge; he's been playing great and is vital to their rhythm. With the young Vucevic back in the rotation too, their depth is even greater than usual. Philly is in excellent form, winning five of their last six.

The Lakers are no longer elite, and that's just a fact. The reason is simple: a top-heavy roster with three stars surrounded by role players like Barnes, Kapono, Artest (who is struggling defensively this year), Murphy, Ebanks, Character, and others. They play decently enough at home, but their road performance is a disaster—they're sitting at a measly 3-8 away from home. It's a catastrophe. To put things in perspective, the Lakers rank 19th in offense, averaging only 93.3 points (and dropping to 91.2 on the road). Their defense is actually decent—5th in the league, allowing 90.7 on average—but it completely falls apart on the road. Outside of the Staples Center, they give up 97.4 points per game, which is a staggering 12.2 points more than what they allow at home.
The Lakers' bench is abysmal—"abysmal" might actually be an understatement. When Bryant, Gasol, and Bynum aren't on the floor—or even if just two of them are missing—this team looks lost. They lack any reliable shooter who can hit a couple of threes and provide some stability.

Philadelphia has Iguodala, an elite defender who can certainly neutralize Kobe. I think Philly has a great shot at taking down the Lakers tonight, picking up another scalp and solidifying that third seed in the East—which is crucial if they want to avoid running into Miami in the early rounds of the playoffs.

Scott Jackson said:Do you think they went a little too far with the 28.5 line on Durant? This game should be tense—Durant plays better on the road, but Portland does a solid job covering Kevin's spot. I see the lottery had him at 26.5? Thoughts?

True, Portland has two reliable defenders in that rotation—Wallace and Batum—and if I recall correctly, Wallace absolutely shut Durant down in their last matchup.
Then again, Durant has been the league's top scorer for two years straight; once he finds his rhythm, he can drop 50 on anyone.

Still, 28.5 is a generous line—might actually be worth taking the under. 🤷

What's the word on Ruzic? Can he actually outscore Kevin Durant? I’m thinking 2.20 is worth a shot if he's fully healthy...

He's doing alright. He dealt with some back issues during the last game, but he later clarified that it isn't anything long-term.

Generally speaking, he tends to perform better when facing elite PGs, and since he's going up against Deron Williams today, I could see him putting up around 25.

As for Amar'e Stoudemire, it’s been confirmed he won't be suited up tonight:

Quote : rt @RoyceWebb: Older brother of Amar'e Stoudemire killed in car crash. Amar'e Stoudemire out for tonight's game. http://t.co/Ep1CxvkT

James Taylor3 said:Yeah, the Portland Trail Blazers have two solid defenders at that spot, Ben Wallace and Nicolas Batum. And if I remember right, Wallace absolutely shut down Kevin Durant in their last matchup.
But then again, Durant has been the league's top scorer two years running. Once he gets hot, he can drop 50 on anyone...

Still, 28.5 is a decent line. Maybe playing the under isn't a bad move. 🤷

Thanks. Sure, anything can happen, but at least I have something to base my pick on... 🙂 Good luck tonight.

Brooklyn Nets - Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls -8,5

Odds: 1.87

Confidence: 5/10

Keeping this one brief—gotta run.

It’s common knowledge that the Bulls are a much stronger squad than the Nets. There’s some question regarding Rose's status tonight, but he's expected to play through the pain. Their only other real concern is Carmelo Anthony being out, though with Kyle Korver shooting as well as he is, that shouldn't be a major issue. The Bulls sit atop the East and are second overall in current standings. They boast the second-best defense in the league in terms of points allowed per game, and today they face one of the worst offenses in the league—one that's currently missing several key pieces. The Nets have been shorthanded for a while, and now they're losing Jordan Morrow due to family issues, leaving them with maybe one and a half quality players on the floor. Essentially, it's just Deron Williams and a diminished Ryan Anderson. The rest of the roster is questionable at best—the fact that an injured Andrew Bogut might start tonight says it all. Plus, they lack a true center since their top two are sidelined, so the Bulls should dominate the boards. The Nets are also on the tail end of a B2B, playing their third game in four days; they'll likely be exhausted given how high the minutes have been for their starters during recent tight games. On the flip side, the Bulls had a slightly lighter schedule, and in two of their last three outings, the starters even sat the fourth quarter—once during a blowout win against the Milwaukee Bucks and once during a blowout loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
They already met once this season, with the Bulls taking it 110-95 at home. I don't see them having much trouble tonight either.

Arthur Hill2 said:He’s doing fine—had some back issues during the last game, but he later mentioned it isn't anything long-term.

By the way, he usually puts up bigger numbers against tougher PGs, and since he's facing Deron Williams today, he could easily drop around 25.

Thanks....🙂