NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Still seeing everyone betting on the under, even though it's sitting at 60% right now—unless that's already shifted.

Besides, it’s definitely worth giving some of those old-school folk 👍

Lawrence Castillo76 said:It looks like the unders are still dominating the totals, maybe even hitting closer to 60% by now if they haven't already.

It’s definitely climbed past 60% from what I can tell just glancing at the boards.

I really need to sit down and refresh my stats sheet so we can look at the actual hard numbers. ☕

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I’m still seeing people betting the over when 60% of the games end up being an under—if that's even still the case.

Sorry, but what does that even have to do with anything?! 🤷

Look, you bet the over if you think that specific outcome is going to land, and you take the under if you think *that* is what's happening. It’s not about some broad, general statistic—it’s about the squad someone is playing for, who they're facing, current form, injuries, and all that jazz... every single game is its own beast. I mean, look at yesterday—plenty of overs hit, especially for the guys we were all chatting about here on the forum, like Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Gerald Martin, John Williams, or Andre Iguodala... even Blake Griffin, Tim Duncan, Russell Westbrook, Baron Davis, and Danny Granger all cleared their overs.

For tonight, I’m looking at Derrick Rose and Chris Paul going over, though I might also consider LaMarcus Aldridge or maybe even Magic Johnson.

Here is an interesting stat: the Atlanta Hawks haven't lost a regular-season home game against the Memphis Grizzlies since 2005. When you factor in that Atlanta is sitting at 8-1 at home, while Memphis is struggling at 4-7 on the road this season, those 1.60 odds look pretty juicy to me. To be fair, Memphis grabbed all four of their road wins against bottom-tier teams like the New Orleans Pelicans, Detroit Pistons, and Golden State Warriors. Atlanta has only dropped one home game this year, and even then, it was against the Miami Heat in a triple-overtime thriller where they actually held the lead until the very last second—right before Chris Bosh drained a nine-meter buzzer-beater. 🙂

If I may add a little more context regarding this matchup... Atlanta cruised through their last two games and rested their starters during the fourth quarter, whereas Memphis had two absolute grinders where the key players had to play heavy minutes until the whistle. Even though both teams had yesterday off, I suspect Atlanta will come out feeling much fresher.

Another angle worth testing for this game is taking the under on Lou Williams at 20.5, given how stout the Atlanta defense is at that position.

So, my parlay might look something like this:

Derrick Rose over 25.5
Chris Paul over 19.5
Atlanta 1X

Total odds: 4.96

And if I'm feeling particularly reckless: those three picks plus Magic Johnson over, Lou Williams under, LaMarcus Aldridge over, and LA Clippers 1X for total odds of 48.

P.S. If anyone happens to have any intel suggesting Atlanta is missing anyone from their rotation, please let me know. 🙂

Vodka, we nailed that Danny Granger under prediction last night. 😂

analoghound21 said:I'm with you on Portland—they look like winners to me—and Derrick Rose over 25.5 is looking pretty tempting too.

So, for now...

Portland
Derrick Rose over 25.5
@2.96

I'm leaning toward Denver myself. A few days ago, when the Clippers barely scraped by them on the road, Chauncey Billups was on fire with 32 points—plus Ty Lawson was out and Wilson Afflalo was just getting back from injury. That said, Billups struggled with his shot last night, so I doubt he repeats that performance tonight🤷 and beyond that, C.J. Butler’s availability is a question mark. 🤔

Then again... the Clippers are likely at their peak right now, playing at home in front of the TNT cameras. That kind of motivation usually keeps them dialed in, so I think I'll pass on that one after all. 🤷
...actually, Chris Paul might be an over again, maybe pair it with this...

LaMarcus Aldridge over 22.5
Chris Paul over 19.5
@3.42

Man, that Portland play isn't going to pan out; everyone is riding that same bet. 🤣
Well, for the exact reasons you mentioned, I might actually take Denver. 🤷

The Clippers are playing their fourth game in five days, which is a grind, but that's why they had such an easy start to the season. If I recall, heading into one of those matchups against the Lakers, the Clippers had four or five fewer games played than Kobe and his crew. That's why they're feeling the squeeze now.

Hard to say. I've watched them quite a bit this season; they play well, I agree, but they tend to hit those slumps—especially in the second half—particularly if Butler is sidelined tonight. Dever has a full roster with no injuries, so they have plenty of depth. Nene might limit Blake Griffin, though; he knows how to play him tough on defense.

And Timofey Mozgov will probably be looking to settle the score with Blake for that screen he set on him last season. 🤣

Alex Cook said:Exactly. To me, this looks like the start of a decent winning streak, which in a compressed season like this could mean about 6 to 9 wins. Blake and Chris Paul have found some rhythm, Chauncey, Michael Jordan, and Jimmy Butler are doing their jobs perfectly, and Mo Williams is providing solid production off the bench. It feels like their window is opening, so I wouldn't advise betting against them.

True, they have momentum, but I think the streak ends tonight.
No matter how good the LA Clippers are, their free throw shooting is a disaster—they’re likely among the worst in the league in that department, even with Chauncey on the roster. Blake Griffin, Michael Jordan, and Chris Evans are abysmal from the line, and since teams frequently foul them—often strategically, especially targeting those last two—it's a massive liability.

Despite the home-court advantage, I think the Denver Nuggets look fresher. They have more depth to work with; they can pull this one off.

Keith Moore21 said:Whatever, what does that even have to do with anything? 🤷

Betting the over only works if you actually think the points are coming, and betting the under only works if you're certain they won't. It’s not about some broad, generic stat sheet either. You gotta look at the squad, who they’re facing, current form, injury reports—all that stuff. Every single game is its own beast. Take yesterday, for example. A ton of overs hit, especially the guys everyone was buzzing about here, like Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Gerald Martin, John Williams, and Andre Iguodala. Even Blake Griffin, Tim Duncan, Russell Westbrook, Baron Davis, and Danny Granger all cleared their overs.

Anyone got a link for player stats and how often they go over/under compared to their lines? Or is anyone actually tracking that?

I only tune in to follow my bets. Honestly, starting to watch everything mid-season just feels like a chore. 🙂

James Taylor3 said:Man, this whole situation with the Portland Trail Blazers isn't looking great—we're all eyeing that same bet. 🤣
Well, look, based on exactly those reasons you just laid out, I might actually take the Denver Nuggets. 🤷

I'm definitely not betting on Portland, which basically means they're a lock to cover. 😉 🤣

ironwalker4 said:Does anyone have a link for player stats and how often they hit the over/under compared to the lines? Or is someone actually tracking that?

Personally, I only track the stuff I'm actually putting money on—trying to dig through every single stat mid-season feels like a massive chore, honestly. 🙂

I usually just stick to NBA.com or HoopsStats... but yeah, as for who’s hitting the over/under consistently, I haven't a clue. 🤷
Nicholas Chase34 might be the guy to ask about that. 😉

James Taylor3 said:So, yeah... honestly, looking at those exact reasons you just laid out, I’d probably put my money on the Denver Nuggets too. 🤷

The Clippers are playing their fourth game in five days, and honestly? It’s exhausting just thinking about it. But hey, that’s life, I guess. That heavy schedule is exactly why they had such a smooth start to the season. I distinctly remember back before one of those big matchups against the Lakers, the Clippers actually had like four or five fewer games on the schedule than Kobe Bryant and his crew did. Now, all that extra rest has caught up to them, and suddenly, things are getting tight.

I don't know, man. I’ve sat through a ton of their games this season, and yeah, I get it—they play solid ball. But they just keep falling into these massive holes, especially when the second half hits. And if Jimmy Butler isn't on the floor tonight? We're in trouble. Dever's got everyone healthy and ready to go, though; the roster is deep as hell right now. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Nazr Bon Stich ends up putting a leash on Blake Griffin. He knows exactly how to shut things down on defense.

And you just know Mozgov is gonna be looking to get even with Blake Griffin for that blatant screen he set on him last season. He's definitely nursing a grudge. 🤣

Look, I get it. They’re on a tear right now, riding that massive wave, but honestly? My gut tells me this winning streak hits a wall tonight. It's gotta end eventually.
I don't care how good the LA Clippers are—free throws absolutely kill them. Seriously, they’re probably one of the worst teams in the league at this, even with Chauncey on the roster. Blake Griffin, Michael Jordan, and Chris Evans are just abysmal from the line. And the problem is they get fouled constantly. It’s always happening, often strategically too, especially when it comes to those last two guys. It's infuriating.

Even with the home-court advantage, I’m leaning towards the Nuggets here. They just look a lot fresher, you know? Plus, they’ve got way more depth on the bench to work with. Honestly, I think they can pull this one off.

Look, like I was saying, if I’m being logical about it, my head tells me to lean toward the Denver Nuggets. You've got the Clippers looking completely gassed, Chauncey had a rough outing last night, and there's always that nagging possibility that Jimmy Butler might not even suit up. But honestly? Screw the logic. These guys are on a freaking tear right now. They've got all the momentum in the world, and if they keep playing like this, they could easily carry that energy straight through tonight. Everything is lined up for them to keep rolling. 🤷

And then there’s that whole exhaustion thing again. Honestly, whenever I start thinking back to that absolute nightmare schedule involving the Atlanta Hawks and the Chicago Bulls—just pure, unadulterated madness—my entire perspective shifts. It messes with my head. Anyway, I'm crossing this one off my list. Good luck to you, though. 😬

Looks like the LA Clippers might be closing in on signing Kenyon Martin soon. Honestly, at this point, I wouldn't even be surprised. Just another day in the life, right?

As far as the Atlanta Hawks go, from what I can gather, they're just playing without Al Horford. (@James Taylor3/">@@James Taylor3, did I get that right?) 😍 Everyone else is just... whatever. Honestly. Alright, I'm up and ready. Let's get this show on the road. 🤷

Keith Moore21 said:I’m sitting here staring at NBA.com and scrolling through HoopsStats like a total idiot... and honestly? When it comes to these over/under bets, I haven't got a clue. I'm completely lost. 🤷
That would be it. Nicholas Chase34 Can I get an answer on this? Anyone? 😉

That’s probably exactly what they're banking on...😬

what are you even talking about with this over/under stuff?! like what does the stats even matter, how often it goes under or over... I mean, it all depends on who is playing against who, you don't need a PhD to get that... I guess I'll hit maybe four or five unders in a row and then what happens? Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat ends up with 190 points, Rose and LeBron just go absolutely nuts, then K. Love drops like 30 against the Lakers, Kobe too, and Bynum and Gasol both put up 20+... and you're gonna tell me the odds are 60:40 for the under....it's basically just a lottery! feels to me like everyone finally warmed up after all those crazy injuries and now they're all just scoring like crazy

Foul trouble and the constant threat of injuries are two huge reasons why I’ll never drop big money on overs. You keep preaching about those overs, though—we'll see where that leaves you. Personally, I don't touch the unders during rivalry games; I usually just hunt for star players on the under when they're facing weaker teams. Good luck to you.

I mean, I’m not saying you have to bet the over every single time. Honestly, it’s probably even better to hunt for players or games where you have solid reasons to go under... like how everyone on the forums is complaining about how Houston’s defense is struggling to guard certain players. Why would I take Derrick Rose under against them just because of some generic stat? It all depends on the matchups and the teams... Today, I think Rose is definitely going over, mostly because I don't see any of those old guys being able to stop him... Boozer will probably be a better defender than Rose today, I'm pretty sure of it... Plus, I watched Rose against the Miami Heat and that guy is just too much right now. Taking him under feels like a huge risk to me, I guess...

Looks like the state lottery and DraftKings have results posted through September 1st. I can just check all the players myself, unless Playmaker decides to drop the full stats, excluding those first two weeks of the season.

Brandon Clark5 said:What are you even talking about regarding over/unders? Statistics don't mean a thing—it doesn't matter what the percentage is for unders versus overs. It all depends on who’s playing whom. You don't need a PhD to grasp that. For instance, I'll hit four or five unders in a row, and then what happens? Suddenly, Chicago vs. Miami turns into a 190-point shootout because Derrick Rose and LeBron are tearing it up. Then K. Love drops 30 against the Lakers, Kobe Bryant does his thing, and Bynum and Gasol both put up 20+. And you're going to tell me the odds were 60:40 for the under? It’s a total lottery. Honestly, it feels like everyone finally warmed up after those massive injuries, and now everybody's just scoring at will.

That concept is called: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

One day it's mostly unders, the next it's all overs, but long-term the ratio sits at 60-40 in favor of the under—that's what Nicholas Chase34 was getting at. Sure, it’s a bit of a simplistic way to put it, but he's not wrong.

Also, if you look at the totals, the lines in our local American sportsbooks are consistently higher than they are at Pinnacle—usually by a point or two. It's likely because the guys at SS-ovac realized people lean heavily toward the over, so they hike the lines just to screw you. As if those lousy 1.85-1.85 odds weren't enough without adding manipulative fees on top.

Speaking of manipulative costs, I should mention I've saved $167 since I switched to an offshore bookie instead of letting our beloved local operators bleed me dry with those fees. Not that I'm betting huge amounts, but still.

By the way, if you’re looking at the hat trick, the odds on the LA Clippers just jumped up to 1.90 🤷

Bradley Kern6 said:So, I was just looking at my parlay, and man, the odds on an LA Clippers hat trick shot up to 1.90. I guess that’s something? Maybe? Just thought I'd mention it. 🤷

I know they’re strictly B2B, but man, I still have a massive amount of faith in them at home.

A bit of useful intel for those of you playing player props:

Gerald Wallace has averaged 20.7 points in 15 career games against the Sacramento Kings—the highest scoring average he has against any team in the league.

Batum is out tonight, so expect plenty of minutes for Wallace.

I'm not sure where the line is set, but Wallace could easily pad his road stats this evening. 🤷

wiredcanyon39 said:I realize they're playing on a back-to-back, but I have a massive amount of faith in them at home.

Yeah, I actually put some money on them myself; DraftKings has them sitting at 1.75 right now.

The Hawks have only dropped one home game so far, and it was against a half-collapsed Miami squad without Wade or King after two overtimes, if I recall correctly. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if they take another L today. I’m taking the Memphis Grizzlies at +4.5, and my total point projection feels low given their head-to-head history—it's a really tight spread.

Is there any word on whether Luol Deng is actually going to suit up tonight?