25w/26l ; +22,867 units; ROI: +9.41%
Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers
Pick: Portland -3.5
Odds: 1.98
Betting Shop: Pinnacle
Wager: 7/10
The Sacramento Kings are sitting second to last in the West—26th overall—with a dismal 6-15 record. They’re in a complete tailspin, having dropped five straight, and they've managed just two wins in their last ten. Offensively, they're struggling, averaging a meager 90.6 points per game, while their defense is essentially a sieve, giving up a league-high 101.9 points. They also surrender the most rebounds in the league. It's been 13 games since they even cracked the 100-point mark. Thornton should be returning tonight after a decent break—he's the team's second leading scorer. Of course, we know players rarely hit the ground running immediately following an injury. Sacramento is young, inexperienced, and arguably the youngest squad in the league—which usually translates to a lack of mental toughness (looking at you, Evans and Cousins). They'll be without Hayes in the frontcourt tonight. They give up far too many points in the paint, which is exactly where Portland excels. LaMarcus Aldridge has been playing at an elite level this season; it would be a genuine shame if he missed out on All-Star honors. He’s averaging 22.5 points, 8.5 rebounds (including 3 offensive boards), and 2.7 assists, all while shooting an efficient 50% from the field. Paired with Camby, he forms a formidable duo under the rim. Wallace is excellent on both ends of the floor—and given the chatter that he only performs well at the Rose Garden, he'll likely be extra motivated tonight to silence the critics on the road. Felton is inconsistent—more "cold" than "hot," really—but he provides necessary pace and flow.
Portland dominates at home, though they haven't been great on the road (3-8). Still, they have a chance to fix that record tonight, especially since Sacramento is such a subpar unit. The only real absence for Portland will be Batum, but Babbitt should step in and make the most of the opportunity.
Portland has absolute dominance in this matchup: they've beaten the Kings in 11 of their last 12 meetings. This season, they handled them twice—once by 22 points and once by 12—both times looking easy while scoring over 100 points.
The biggest threat to Portland will be the young center Cousins. Despite his size, he's surprisingly quick. In previous matchups, he gave the otherwise stout defender Camby quite a bit of trouble.
Portland is highly motivated to snap their road losing streak. They have the better roster, the deeper bench, and the superior coaching. This -3.5 spread is the right play.
