NBA Betting: Vol. 2

The Miami Heat had a much smoother ride than anyone anticipated 🙂

Look, it might have seemed like an easy win on paper, but they didn't truly break them down until that final quarter—it was a grind. Dwyane Wade is an absolute beast on the court; honestly, going forward, I wouldn't recommend taking the over on James or Bosh, especially since James is hunting his own shot quite aggressively lately.

Is anyone else watching the end of this Celtics game? I was losing my mind when they were up 90-89 and the momentum just died, then I check the live score and see Paul Pierce sinks a three to make it 93-89. I'm thinking, thank God, finally. So I close the app, go to check what minute we're in, and suddenly it's back to 90-89 because Paul Pierce jumps on defense and gives up a free throw to make it 91-89.

What happened to that three-pointer? Why was it waved off? It says the refs were checking the replay?

It didn't hit in time; missed it by just a tenth of a second.

The 1.50 odds on the Knicks +10.5 really caught my eye.🙂

ugh, thanks

I'm thinking about putting something on the Lakers, but honestly, once I get sick of hearing about Fisher and Metta World Peace again... :/

Gregory Cooper5 said:When was the last time you actually nailed a full parlay... and honestly, sometimes you just don't feel like giving a whole lecture on why things happened the way they did...🤷

Peace to you too, man, but look—even when I miss by just one leg, I still come out ahead big time, and if you’d been watching Monta Ellis tonight, you'd see how Jamison totally blew it by just one single basket🤷. I’ve even had winning streaks two days in a row before, and I’m certainly not going around forcing anyone to copy my plays if they think they’re so much smarter than me🤷. Look, I appreciate you worrying about my bankroll, really, but there’s seriously no need for that since I’m not some ego-driven maniac and a loss isn't going to leave me broke on the streets😍. Is that a clear enough explanation for you? ☕ There's always some wise guy jumping in to comment on everything🤷

stormyseal9 said:Hey, back at you. Missing just one play still pays out huge, and if you were watching tonight, Monta Ellis and Jamison missed by a single bucket🤷. I managed to hit two days in a row recently, and I’m not forcing anyone to follow my lead if they think they know better🤷. I appreciate the concern for my bankroll, but seriously, don't worry about it—I'm not some gambler looking to blow my life savings on a whim😍. Is that clear enough for you?☕ There's always someone trying to play smart-ass🤷

Why the hell are you being so defensive?

The guy was asking a legitimate question, maybe checking what your win rate looks like since the last time you hit a heater.

Just give him a straight answer.

"Yeah, I hit a few ten days ago, or fifteen, whatever—I don't have time to sit here and explain myself like this."

Look, I don't care how much you're winning or when you're hitting, but he has a point. Every now and then, you should drop some actual analysis to show you actually understand the game. Otherwise, you just look like those guys who walk into a sportsbook, glance at the board, and say, "Oh, Dwight Howard is set at only 19.5? Let's hammer that," even though Andrew Bynum is right there guarding him. I've seen way too many people act like that, and nobody respects them. 😉

Keith Moore21 said:Rajon Rondo over 15.5
Gerald Martin over 23.5
Stoudemire under 21.5

2/3 system, if 2 hit you get your stake back☕

Well, screw that—Martin only played 17 minutes and ended up with just 16 points...
And Rajon Rondo finished with 10...

🙂 🙂

edit: for today, I'm going again with Gerald Martin over 23.5... I mentioned how much he played yesterday, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue, I guess... Ideally, Luke Ridnour should be guarding him—at least at the start—since defense is basically a foreign concept to him, so I’m expecting maybe 10 points right out of the gate in the first quarter... Plus, the Minnesota Timberwolves are pretty weak at defending the perimeter, and I don't see any massive blowouts happening either (unlike yesterday when the Houston Rockets were up by 20 at halftime and things just fell apart)... so Gerald Martin should get decent minutes...

How many games are we looking at tonight 🙏 ...and honestly, what am I even supposed to pick from this mess? 😵

Like @playmaker would say, here are my early leans:

LA Clippers
Indiana Pacers
Dallas Mavericks
Phoenix Suns +9.5
New York Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard under 21.5
Kosta Martin over 23.5
Carmelo Anthony over 25.5

25w/27l ; +15,867 units; ROI: +6.35%

San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

Odds: 1.893

Unit: 6/10

It doesn't matter if they had a grueling game against the Memphis Grizzlies last night—even if Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had to grind out 43+ minutes—or if they're facing a Spurs squad that’s 12-1 at home. I’m taking +3.5 on Oklahoma City Thunder @ 1.893 via Pinnacle. Oklahoma City Thunder is the superior squad here—younger, more physical. Westbrook’s athleticism makes back-to-back games a non-issue for him. Under the rim, Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka can handle Taurean Blair and Tim Duncan. Durant will likely have a field day with Richard Jefferson, and honestly, the Oklahoma City Thunder bench holds more depth than San Antonio's. It'll be interesting to see how Tony Parker manages Westbrook's energy. This feels like a very generous line for the best team in the West. Add in the possibility of Sefolosha returning to the lineup tonight, and it's even better...

Hey, where you been, analoghound21?! Haven't seen you around in a bit... getting buried at work or something? 🤷
And seriously, don't go copying Gerald Martin's over/under ☕ 🤣

I didn't even catch what was happening with the Clippers—1.35 against the Wizards (if Charles Barkley had his way) is... well, maybe 😁

Here's the take from James Taylor3, now I feel like I have to grab Oklahoma City Thunder too 😬
Just a quick heads-up, though—they've got Sefolosha listed as doubtful...

Keith Moore21 said:Here’s James Taylor3’s take—now I might have to include Oklahoma City Thunder too. 😬
Just a quick heads-up, Sefolosha is listed as doubtful...

I know—that’s exactly why I mentioned it, assuming he actually plays. 😁

They can probably handle it without him—unless you decide to bet on them.

If you play them too, we can both just toss our tickets in the trash. 😬

Anyway, I'm out. Bye.

James Taylor3 said:Look, I get it—that’s exactly why I even mentioned it, just in case he actually makes a comeback. 😁

They can probably handle things without him, though—I mean, that’s assuming you don't end up covering for them.

If you decide to put money on them too, we might as well both just toss our tickets straight into the trash. 😬

Anyway, I'm out. Catch ya later.

Yeah, fair enough. In that case, just play it yourself. 😬
👋

darkmarlin16 said:Maybe just take a little flyer on the Indiana Pacers with a smaller bet🙂

☕

Sent from my iPhone

Keith Moore21 said:man, what happened to you?! haven't seen you around lately... work keeping you busy?! 🤷
and don't go copying Gerald Martin's over/under picks ☕ 🤣

I didn't even get the Clippers situation straight—1.35 against the Wizards (if Charles Barkley had his way) might actually fly 😁

here's James Taylor3's take, now I guess I gotta grab Oklahoma City Thunder too 😬
just a heads up, Sefolosha is listed as doubtful...

yeah, mostly just work stuff... anyway, glad to be back in the mix 😁

you definitely caught my eye there 😬 but we'll see how things play out...☕

though their next road trip to face the Orlando Magic might actually be more interesting. honestly, after that brutal loss last game, I bet they're coming in hungry tonight; they've got a full roster and they look way better than those Wizards, who are playing on a back-to-back. plus, after getting crushed by Toronto last night, the Wizards have the Raptors at home again and a chance for revenge, so they might be pretty locked in too, but whatever ☕

The Phoenix Suns have a chance to settle the score after losing the last four matchups against those absolute disaster Bobcats—especially since they're playing shorthanded without two of their top guys, Darren Augustin and Gordon Henderson, plus Al Maggette. Honestly, after that 112:68 blowout against the Portland Trail Blazers, I feel like another blowout is inevitable. I have no clue how they're even going to cover an 88.5 spread without their main guys 🤷

stormyseal9 said:Hey, right back at you! Honestly, one little slip-up on my part pays off tenfold in the long run, especially if you were watching Monta Ellis and Antawn Jamison tonight—they both missed a crucial bucket by just one shot🤷. Somehow, I managed to pull two wins in a row, and look, I’m not forcing anyone to copy my plays if they think they know better🤷. I appreciate you looking out for my wallet, truly, but there’s really no need to worry. I’m not some high roller, and a loss isn't going to break the bank for me😍. Is that clear enough for you? ☕ There’s always some smart aleck ready to chime in with a comment🤷.

Hey, Joshua Gonzalez33, thanks for stepping in and defending me. I don't see this as an attack, just a bit of unnecessary frustration... I follow the stats and the players closely, both in the league and here on the forums. I see you consistently posting your picks, but I haven't noticed anyone coming back to you with critiques or stats, nor do you feel the need to explain them... No hard feelings, good luck with your picks...

PS: For example, when you post two sets of parlays... is one considered a 90% lock and the other a 70% chance? Or are they just two different "what if" tickets? Is it based on a gut feeling, some insider info, or what?...
I'm done with this
End of discussion

Pau Gasol over 16.5 at 1.85
Tim Duncan over 13.5 at 1.85
Kevin Love over 24.5 at 1.85
Granger over 18.5 at 1.85
Richard Jefferson under 18.5 at 1.85
Rose over 26.5 at 1.85
Carmelo Anthony over 25.5 at 1.85 SS

6/7 system play☕

+8.5/Wizards vs Clippers 1 at 1.85
LaMarcus Aldridge under 23.5 at 1.85
Kevin Durant under 28.5 at 1.85
Deron Williams over 23.5 at 1.85
Dwight Howard over 21.5 at 1.85
Kobe Bryant over 29.5 at 1.85
Monta Ellis under 22.5 at 1.85
187.5/Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks under at 1.85
Amare Stoudemire under 21.5 at 1.85 HL

8/9 system, it's looking pretty tight🤷

ps. Look, this is strictly my own take based on how I see the matchups and the strength of the opposition, so don't come at me if you think I'm off—I'm not claiming to be a prophet here!🤷If anyone finds this useful for their own picks, hey, I'll take it, but let's be real, that "90% win rate" stuff people talk about? It doesn't exist in the real world because you need way too many things to line up perfectly for that to happen☕. Honestly, who even believes that nonsense anyway?
Good luck today to everyone getting some action; let's hope we can actually drain the bookies dry, because isn't that why we're all here in the first place?😍

Since the Super Bowl players from the Orlando Magic are sleeping in Cincinnati—which is about two hours away from the Indiana Pacers—they should probably roll in around 1

graniteotter6 said:So, looking at the Miami Heat schedule today, I might even consider upping my stake.
Also, 96.5 for the LA Lakers seems way too high to me...
Last year, the OKC Thunder really struggled against Meg, but this year feels different. Still, maybe an 8.5 spread is worth a shot. Meg got some rest last night, and in the West, you have to fight for every single win. I expect OKC to take it, but probably not by much.

I hope at least someone followed along.
For today, the New York Knicks look decent at 1.4, though it’s going to be a long day. It doesn't matter if the Knicks are playing their third game in a row; they should pull it through.
The Philadelphia matchup against the Atlanta Hawks 🤔 could go either way—maybe a two-point spread. Atlanta looked pretty rough against Meg, and Philly wasn't exactly shining last night. In a matchup between "currently struggling teams," I'd rather take the lesser of two evils.
I'm getting a bit tired of seeing Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers; I think this is the fourth time we've seen them play this season. The Orlando side looks solid, except that both teams aren't exactly playing great right now. Indiana handled the Dallas Mavericks well last night, but I didn't really feel like betting on it. Plus, they're heading back from a Western Conference road trip. It's probably best to avoid it, but if you have to, maybe a 1-point spread.
Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks under 190.5—that honestly looks like a great line.

graniteotter6 said:Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks under 190.5? That’s a solid line.

That was the first thing that caught my eye when I checked the odds. Sure, the last game was high-scoring, but looking at the stretch before that, things were much tighter. It looks promising to me...