NBA Betting: Vol. 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jINg8...layer_embedded

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stormyseal9 said:Picking up where we left off over the last two days.😍

Russell Westbrook over 21.5, at 1.85 odds. Is he really going to hit it? Who knows. Just another number on a screen.
LaMarcus Aldridge under 23.5, Dallas.
Jennings over 20.5 at Dallas. Just something to chew on.
Dwight Howard over 21.5. Is that even realistic? Seems like a lot of heavy lifting for one guy. Maybe. Who knows.
Blake Griffin over 20.5, at 1.85. Is he actually going to hit that? Hard to say. Everything feels like a toss-up lately.
Dwyane Wade to go over 22.5? At those odds... maybe. Who knows. Is he really feeling it tonight? Sometimes you just wonder if anyone actually knows what's coming next in this league.
Milwaukee and Detroit, over 180.5 at 1.85. Just something to chew on. Is it enough? Who knows.
Boozer over 14.5, 1.85. Is he really going to hit that? Who knows. Just feels like one of those numbers that sits there staring at you.

System 7/8.👍

I wanted to ask, what's the deal with the numbers on SS right now? Why did they suddenly shift like this—like, instead of Aldridge being at 23.5, he’s sitting at -22.5, and then Griffin goes from 20.5 down to -22.5? Does that actually mean anything, or am I just overthinking it? Am I right in assuming there was just a massive wave of bets coming in on those kinds of parlays, so they bumped the lines up to make the payout harder to hit?

Chicago and Miami for an even bigger amount—way bigger this time: yes or no?!?

Keith Moore21 said:And then he acts like he actually showed up 🤣

It’s honestly not even surprising that Ruzica and LeBron James missed all four of those shots right at the end. 😍

Actually, they weren't even playing; this photo is from the game against Toronto. 🤦

darkgull11 said:Wait, which sportsbook is offering odds like that?

Honestly, nowhere right now, but they were hitting a hat trick earlier this morning. I think I messed up and wrote Houston as 1.50 by mistake.

Bryan Adams6 said:I mean, honestly—I feel like Milojko would probably go absolutely insane and wouldn't be able to take his eyes off her for three days straight if he had the chance. ☕

🤣 Where on earth did you dig that memory up from... seriously... 🤣

George Barnes25 said:I can't actually watch video links directly—my eyes aren't wired that way—but if you drop the details or give me the gist of what's happening in the clip, I'm all over it. Just let me know what we're looking at, whether it's some wild highlight reel or just a random deep dive, and I'll give you my two cents.

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Hey LeBron James, this is absolutely top-tier stuff. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp6qJ7LZNlg

Arthur Hill2 said:Nah, they weren't even there—that photo is actually from the game against Toronto. 🤦

Holy crap, I didn't even realize—as soon as I saw the headline, my brain just went straight to that Miami game. 😂
You see what happens when your eyes just fixate on one tiny corner of the photo—it totally messes with your perspective, I guess. 😁

Bones, check your fantasy notifications—I just sent you an offer. 😉

Keith Moore21 said:🤣 Finally remembered, did you? 🤣

Forget LeBron James; this is elite http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp6qJ7LZNlg

As soon as I saw that video Scrum posted, I knew exactly how you'd respond. 🤣

Dunking like that over a guy who's at least 7'1"—if I recall correctly, I think I read somewhere that Weiss is that tall. 🙏

Personally, I’d steer clear of Miami today. After last night's win, things might settle down a bit—they've already struggled against much smaller teams more than once, and honestly, the odds just aren't worth the risk.
I'm planning to go big today—looking at Rose over, and potentially adding one more leg to hit a double. I might even take the spread with Philadelphia against an Orlando squad that is currently in absolute shambles.

euskal@ why the Boozer over? Ever since Rose came back, the guy isn't seeing any meaningful touches, and on the rare occasion he does get a look, he's only converting about half the time.

Since Hamilton, Denga, and CJ Watson are all out, expect Boozer to be seeing a lot more action with the ball today.

James Taylor3 said:Man, looking at that video Scrum posted, I totally get why you’re hitting back at him. 🤣

I mean, dunking right over some guy who's gotta be at least 7'1" (not 100% sure, but I think I read somewhere that Weiss was that tall)... 🙏

Yeah, something like that—7'1", maybe 7'2"... whatever, if he's 7'0", still, dunking over a guy like that 😲
is just insane, seriously. 🤣
And paired with that 720 dunk? Honestly, that might be the best dunk I've ever seen...

Arthur Hill2 said:Since they're missing Hamilton, Denga, and CJ Watson, Boozer is probably going to see a ton of touches today.

Goozer might actually pull it off. I mean, Washington, D.C. gives up a massive amount of points from that spot—averaging about 22 per game—and even the Golden State Warriors aren't much better in that department. Honestly, 15 shouldn't be an issue...

fadedcyclist4 said:Goozer could definitely pull it off, honestly. Washington gives up a ton of buckets from that spot, averaging about 22 points allowed there, and the Golden State Warriors aren't doing much better in that department. Scoring 15 shouldn't be an issue at all...

From what I’ve been seeing in the stats lately, I think your numbers might be a little off, because the Golden State Warriors haven't actually been that bad at defending the small forward position this season. If you're sure about that, drop a link so I can take a look and see if my data is just missing something.🤷

Android

Nicholas Chase34 said:Based on the stats I've been tracking, I think your numbers are actually off. The Golden State Warriors aren't really struggling that much at the power forward spot this year, so if you're sure there's an issue, maybe drop a link so I can double-check your math.🤷

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Fair point! My mistake—I was looking at Small Forward instead of Power Forward. But even so, my point stands: Washington, D.C. is giving up a ton of points from that position.🙂 They're averaging 21 per game
so I still think Goozer is a solid bet for the over.

Watching the Bulls yesterday, I noticed Rose over took on a massive amount of responsibility since Denga isn't there. It felt like almost every single possession ended with him either driving to the rim or dishing out an assist. He’s sitting at 24.5 today, but that's always the tricky part because it all depends on how the game flows... if Tamburat ends up dropping over 20 in the third quarter, the coach is obviously going to pull him for some rest... Honestly, my gut is telling me to take Scholes over 17.5 instead...
And maybe consider Orlando over 85.5... feels like a solid pick to me. Orlando is struggling big time right now, but I'll take the over on 85.5 any day of the week, even if it were a girls' high school team playing Philly for 48 minutes...
Miami might struggle against the Hornets, which could mean LeBron James gets a little extra breathing room on the bench... I'm expecting a bigger performance from Wade today, though 23.5 feels a bit steep given how much he shot last night. Still, hopefully he finds his rhythm so LeBron isn't left out there totally alone with Bosh... I might just grab LeBron under 27.5...
Anyone else got ideas for the parlay?
Steve Nash over 14.5
San Antonio over 91.5
Dallas over 92.5

I'm just waiting for SS to add assists to the betting options, which should happen soon... that's where the real value is going to be...

Anthony James69 said:Watching the Bulls yesterday, I noticed Rose over has a ton of usage when Denga isn't out there... almost every possession is him either driving to score or kicking it out for an assist. He's at 24.5 today, but that's always tricky since it depends on how the game flows... if they're putting up 20+ in the third quarter, the coach will probably sit him. I'm leaning toward School over 17.5, just a gut feeling...
And maybe try Orlando over 85.5... feels like a solid pick to me. Orlando is struggling right now, but I’ll take the over on 85.5 any day, even if it was a local high school girls' team playing Philly for 48 minutes...
Miami might struggle against the Hornets, which could give LeBron James some extra rest on the bench... I expect Wade to step up today, though 23.5 feels steep given his shooting last night. Hopefully he finds his rhythm so LeBron James isn't left stranded without Bosh... maybe take LeBron James under 27.5...
Any other ideas for the parlay?
Steve Nash over 14.5
San Antonio over 91.5
Dallas over 92.5

Just waiting for SS to add assists to the betting options, should happen soon. .. that's where the real value will be...

Philadelphia and Chicago have the toughest defense in the league. Especially when they're at home.

Orlando's recent scores: 85-67-83-103-56
Philadelphia's points allowed: 74-72-97(OT)-83-113(Miami away)...

I'm skipping this game, but calling that an "excellent pick" is a stretch...

p.s. Those types of bets won't show up until the playoffs...

24 wins, 25 losses — up 20,614 units. ROI stands at +9.04%.

Phoenix vs. Dallas.
The play here is Dallas at -2.5.

Odds: 1.917

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Rating: 9/10

Alright, let me start by quoting myself:

James Taylor3 said:The Mavericks are heading into this matchup without Dirk Nowitzki and Vince Carter—a massive handicap on paper. However, let’s be honest: Vince Carter has been on a steep decline over the last two seasons. He’s looking desperate this year; if anything, the Mavericks might be better off without him. Delonte West and the quick Beaubois can handle his minutes much more effectively right now. To fill Dirk's spot in the starting five, we'll see last year's Sixth Man of the Year, Lamar Odom—who, frankly, struggled to find his footing in Dallas after that messy exit from the Los Angeles Lakers. That said, he stepped up for Dirk last game, putting up 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists. He also tends to feast on the Phoenix Suns—last season he dropped 22, 12, 29, and 15 points against them, averaging 19.5 PPG along with a massive 10.5 rebounds per game. He even notched 15 points in just 22 minutes during our first meeting with Phoenix this season. He should be a capable substitute for Dirk. Jason Terry is in a bit of a shooting slump, but he's starting—he's too high-caliber for this drought to last long. As for the Suns, they are the perfect kind of opponent to snap a losing streak. It’ll be an interesting veteran showdown between Jason Kidd and Steve Nash. On the defensive end, Shawn Marion should be able to stifle Grant Hill while maintaining offensive dominance. The only real advantage Phoenix holds is at center—Marcin Gortat is a tier above Haywood and Mahinmi. But Dallas plays elite defense—we’re currently third in the league, giving up only 88.4 points per game—and they play even more aggressively at home, which should cause problems for Phoenix. The Mavericks' bench is incomparably deeper and more talented than the Suns' unit. Plus, playing at home is a significant edge. The squad is motivated to keep the momentum going after two wins and to improve their record (10-7, 7th in the West). The West is incredibly tight right now, with plenty of teams fighting for playoff positioning; the Mavericks simply have to win games like this, whether Dirk is on the floor or not.
The Phoenix Suns are struggling—plain and simple. They’re playing poorly, and the roster lacks depth. Aside from Steve Nash and Marcin Gortat, there isn't much quality to speak of, and the bench is completely out of sync right now.
The Mavericks have absolutely owned this matchup lately—they've taken 9 of the last 10 games played in Dallas, usually by double digits. Last season was even more lopsided; they swept all four meetings with total authority, winning by 15 and 25 at home, and keeping it comfortable with 6 and 8-point wins on the road.
We’re only one game into the season, and the Mavericks took it by nine—98-89. They actually held a 21-point lead with seven minutes left on the clock, but they cruised a bit too hard—brought in the bench too early—and let that margin shrink to a mere nine. After those initial two stumbles against Miami and Denver, Dallas has found their rhythm at home, riding a six-game winning streak in their own arena. I expect that streak to stay alive tonight.

I wrote this just last week when these two teams faced off again. Even without Dirk Nowitzki and Vince Carter in the lineup, Dallas cruised past the Phoenix Suns. It ended up being a six-point game—nothing dramatic—but there was never any doubt about the outcome during the second half. Dallas held a double-digit lead of about 15 points at one point, mirroring exactly how that first matchup of the season went down.

Everything from my previous post still stands—with the added note that Dirk Nowitzki is back for the Mavericks. Tonight, Dallas isn't just relying on Jason Kidd; he hasn't exactly been playing at his peak this season anyway, and Beaubois has been stepping up perfectly in his absence—not to mention Delonte West isn't exactly struggling either. The Mavericks are in great shape, winning five of their last six and seven of their last ten—putting them firmly at the fourth seed in the West. Dirk took a few games off, presumably to sort out those knee issues. Dallas had a grind of a game last night—a Texas derby against the Spurs—and they eventually pulled it out in overtime. They really should have put it away much earlier, though; I believe they blew a lead of as many as 20 points. A few players saw increased minutes last night, but they had two days of rest leading up to it, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue.

The Phoenix Suns are struggling—not entirely surprising given their recent stretch. They’ve managed just one win in their last five, and only three in their last ten. To make matters worse, it looks like Steve Nash might be out tonight. Despite his age, he's been playing incredibly well lately; he actually leads the league in field goal percentage at 53%. His status remains uncertain, but current reports suggest he likely won't suit up. Even if he does, the Mavericks are my pick here. Nash is going to have a rough time defensively against a lightning-fast Beaubois, who should give the entire Suns defense—which isn't exactly elite—a hard time.

I spent some time digging through Suns fan forums looking for updates on the matchup and Nash's health, and it seems almost nobody expects them to pull off a win tonight.

Dallas has taken 12 of the last 15 matchups against them, including six straight wins. I expect them to make it seven tonight.

The Mavericks simply have the better roster. Their ambitions far exceed those of the Suns—who seem more focused on securing a better draft pick next year—and they boast much more depth. Plus, they have Dirk Nowitzki.

Looks like Richard Jefferson is sitting out for Utah tonight.
It seems Pinnacle immediately dropped the line for Portland to 1.826, and the spread has already shifted from +2 to -1.5. It could keep moving depending on how things develop.

I see SS hasn't made a move yet.

It would probably be best to go with the contrarians then, yeah.

played a double

Portland vs Dallas

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NBA experts, which of these should I cut from my slip? I am definitely taking Dallas following James Taylor3's analysis, but I am struggling to decide what else to pair with them. It is just a small-to-medium stake. Thank you all in advance

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks (01.31. 03:00) 2 @1.85
Houston (h-6.5)-Minnesota (01.31. 02:00) Over @1.85
Utah Jazz vs Portland Trail Blazers (01.31. 03:00) X2 @1.80
Philadelphia (h-7.5)-Orlando (01.31. 01:00) 2 @1.85
Memphis (h-5.5)-San Antonio (01.31. 02:00) 2 @1.85