NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:The Golden State Warriors' star is Stephen Curry http://www.nba.com/playerfile/stephe....html?nav=page
I feel like the Warriors expect way too much from him...

😕 Not sure why I'd even be bringing up their player in the first place?

Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 2 @1.70
The Golden State Warriors just took down Chicago—honestly, I think they’ve collected enough big scalps to last the week. As for the New York Knicks, I've been keeping an eye on them and it feels like we finally have a solid squad... though, we're definitely dealing with some issues regarding our Players. Hopefully, there won't be too many TOovs on the floor tonight. We aren't exactly expecting anything out of the park from Douglas or that little Chinese kid either...

Sorry, I didn't quite catch what you meant by "we have a good squad"... were you only referring to the Knicks? My bad, I totally missed that part. 😢

2w/1l ; +4.16 units; ROI: +34.67%

Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks

Pick: Over 204.5 total points

Odds: 1.943

Stake: 4/10

Over the last few seasons, these two teams have consistently delivered high-scoring spectacles—games that almost always trend toward massive totals.

Here’s how their matchups have looked over the last three seasons:

11/20/2010 NBA Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 119:125
11/11/2010 NBA New York Knicks vs Golden State Warriors 117:122
04/03/2010 NBA Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 128:117
11/14/2009 NBA New York Knicks vs Golden State Warriors 107:121
02/11/2009 NBA Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 144:127
11/30/2008 NBA New York Knicks vs Golden State Warriors 138:125

Insane numbers, right? 😲

Today, the line sits at a much lower level—"only" 204.5 points according to Pinnacle.
The reason behind this shift is the new philosophy from the Golden State Warriors coach, who is pushing for a more defensive-minded approach. However, his roster isn't exactly accustomed to that kind of discipline after years of playing otherwise—it’s unlikely their mentality will pivot overnight.

On the other side, the New York Knicks tried to shore up their interior defense by acquiring Tyson Chandler, a center from last year's champion Dallas Mavericks. They needed him because they were giving up far too many points in the paint last season. But even with a guy as talented as Chandler, you can't plug every hole when the rest of the supporting cast is this shaky defensively. We saw that clearly against Boston, where Rajon Rondo tore them apart with ease.

Both squads are attempting to transition from last year's pure "run and gun" style to something more disciplined, but you can't just fix a team's identity instantly by hiring a new coach or signing one defensive specialist—regardless of their talent.

The Warriors possess a heavy-hitting offense led by the stellar Monta Ellis, who honestly deserves an All-Star nod by now. Then there's the young, agile, and highly gifted Stephen Curry (though his status for tonight is uncertain due to a minor injury), along with the reliable David Lee. Think of those three as a mini Miami Heat—three rising superstars in the making. Plus, they have one of the league's best shooters in Dorell Wright. For depth, they're getting help from new center Kwame Brown and Andris Biedrins.

The Knicks rely heavily on two superstars, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire. They actually tried to add a third piece this summer in Chris Paul, but that fell through. They still play a fast-paced game characterized by high scoring and poor defense. Douglas is the starting Point Guard and he's decent, but the defense remains porous. Carmelo and Amar'e have never been particularly interested in defensive duties, so most of the heavy lifting to prevent buckets falls to Fields and Chandler.

I expect tonight to be defined by fast transitions, lapses in defense, flashy plays, and—most importantly for my bet—plenty of points. 😁

Additionally, I don't think the edge the Knicks have tonight is as significant as the oddsmakers suggest. The Warriors are a tough out on their home floor, and the Knicks haven't been particularly convincing on the road. To me, the 2.53 odds on the home side at Pinnacle looks undervalued, regardless of whether Curry suits up or not.

So, I'm taking:

Golden State Warriors - New York Knicks 1 @ 2.53

for a stake of 2/10

Here’s my ticket for today, check it out

Manu Ginobili over 17.5 at 1.85
Dwyane Wade over 24.5 at 1.85
Tony Parker over 16.5 at 1.85
Jamison under 18.5 at 1.85
Russell Westbrook over 21.5 at 1.85
Denver Nuggets under 108.5 at 1.85

Man, I really need a drink 😛

James Taylor3 said:Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 1 @2.53

I was seriously tempted to grab the over on the New York Knicks, but honestly, I chickened out at the last second.
As for this matchup, I just took the over on the Indian player
otherwise, you've got Golden State Warriors (-3.5) @3.35 over at HL 😬

Anyway, this is your territory, so let's hear it...

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder...1 @2.00 or maybe I'd prefer under 194.5 or perhaps even better Oklahoma City Thunder under 97.5, and while we're on the subject, maybe even Kevin Durant under 29.5 🤷

This game is actually calling my name. The Grizzlies are probably gonna be absolutely livid, what's your take? 🙂

And regarding the Timberwolves, I think they're gonna be a total bust again this season—not even Ricky can save them.🤣 ☕

analoghound21 said:I was tempted to take the over on 102.5 for the Knicks, but I ended up passing
As for this matchup, I just took the over on the Indian player
Otherwise, you've got Golden State Warriors -3.5 at 3.35 on Pinnacle😬

Anyway, this is your territory, so let's hear it...

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder...1 at 2.00or maybe instead under 194.5or perhaps even better Oklahoma City Thunder under 97.5, and while we're at it, maybe Kevin Durant under 29.5 🤷

This game looks interesting—the Grizzlies will likely be playing with a serious chip on their shoulder. What's your take? 🙂

Man, if I actually had the motivation to walk down to the betting shop, I’d put something on that -3.5. 👍

Regarding Memphis and Oklahoma City, things could get messy. Those Grizzlies are beasts at home. During last year's playoffs, Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph absolutely bullied the Thunder's frontcourt—dominating the boards and racking up points. But then again, Oklahoma City had Durant and Russell Westbrook going wild.

I suspect Zeba and the younger Gasol will make an impact in the paint again today, but honestly, they can't stop Durant, nor can they stop Russell Westbrook (though, to be fair, Westbrook often stops himself with questionable decision-making and excessive solo play).
I wouldn't touch this game with a ten-foot pole; I'd rather just let them play it out and enjoy the show. 😁

James Taylor3 said:Man, if I actually had the guts to head over to the sportsbook, I’d probably throw something down on that -3.5 spread. 👍

As for Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder, things could get messy. Those Grizzlies guys are absolute beasts at home. Last year in the playoffs, Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph just tore through the Thunder's frontcourt—total domination on the boards and they just racked up points left and right. But then again, you've got Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook going absolutely mental in Oklahoma City.

I mean, I think Zeba and the younger Gasol will make an impact in the paint again today, but let's be real: nobody is stopping Durant, and stopping Westbrook is a whole different headache (though honestly, Westbrook usually does a great job of tripping himself up with boneheaded plays and trying to do too much on his own).
Personally, I wouldn't touch this game with a ten-foot pole. I'll just sit back and watch them play out their drama and hope for some decent basketball. 😁

and against those guys, they grabbed 42 rebounds, but coughed up 24 turnovers. I'm thinking they might out-rebound OKC again today (if that's even an option in the betting lines, which feels like a total lock ☕), Perkins has that nagging issue with his right ankle, and the coach hasn't really been utilizing Ibak properly in these first two games, wtf 😕

I feel like pure grit might be the deciding factor this time—that whole "revenge" mindset and all that... OKC got pushed pretty hard by Minnesota, too. My gut is leaning heavily toward a 1 outcome...🤔

Last season, the Durant-Westbrook average in Memphis was 23.8 points including the playoffs; in five road games, he only cleared 30 once (hitting 35), while everything else stayed under 30 (28, 23, 22, 35, 11). I bet the Memphis crew spends the whole night chasing him around.🤷

Chris Paul over 16.5

Looking at the numbers, last season he had an insane field goal percentage (over 60%) when this PG went up against Tony Parker. But honestly, setting that aside—tonight, facing off against Parker, aka "the guy who can't guard anyone," Chris Paul is playing big. I think the line is set way too low here; 19.5 feels much more realistic. Expect Paul to dominate TP9 on both ends of the floor.

LOL... Monta Ellis was sitting at 1.85 / 1.85 in the lottery before sliding down to 2.40 / 1.50. Meanwhile, at the local sportsbook, they bumped the line from 22.5 up to 24.5.

So, the under 22.5 is actually sitting at 2.40... 😲🤣

I took the over on Ellis... but experience tells me that when the odds shift this drastically, or the spread moves by two or more points, things have a way of crashing. It’s a bit easier to stomach now that they've pushed the line to 24.5, but we'll see how it plays out. 😁

Anyone betting the O/U on Amar'e in SS today? When I was grabbing a coffee this afternoon, I'm pretty sure the line was at 21.5, but now I'm looking at the board and it's sitting at 23.5 🙂

wiredcanyon39 said:+5,95
1-0. I mean, we're off to a flying start, I guess. One win under the belt, zero losses. Not a bad way to kick things off, right? Maybe we're just getting warmed up.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 1.90

Day three of the season, and we’ve got a massive matchup on the table. It's last year's dark horse, the Memphis Grizzlies, taking on one of the heavy title favorites alongside the Miami Heat—the Oklahoma City Thunder. Looking at how things have started, Memphis dropped their opener against the San Antonio Spurs—the same squad they pulled off that huge playoff upset against last year—but this season, the Spurs handled them pretty easily, winning by 13. Meanwhile, OKC is rolling with two wins under their belt after taking down a bolstered Minnesota Timberwolves team, 104-100, in an Orlando matchup. Honestly, OKC hasn't even touched their roster this season, but I guess you could say their biggest "new" additions are just a year older, more seasoned Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. As for Memphis, man, I just haven't seen much from them yet. They didn't look impressive in their season opener, and they struggled in those two games against the New Orleans Pelicans too. They finally got Rudy Gay back, and with Zach Randolph and Pau Gasol in the mix, that trio is basically what carries this whole Memphis group. The Odds look really solid here. I'm feeling pretty good about this one—I'm definitely taking it. 😁

I mean, we really gotta give it another shot today. I guess there's no harm in trying again, right? Maybe luck will finally swing our way this time.
I'm leaning toward the Miami Heat here. Looking at the odds, they're sitting at around 1.45, which feels like a pretty solid play if you're looking for some momentum. I guess it’s worth a shot.
Maybe the LA Clippers at +4.5 is the move here. I don't know, just a feeling I'm getting, but I guess it's worth looking into.
I guess we're looking at Philly? Maybe just a little bit? I don't know, it feels like there's something there, but who knows. Just my two cents, I suppose.

Oh man, my bad—totally forgot to log that 5/10. My mistake!

1. Parlay
Phoenix Suns (h+1.5) vs Philadelphia 76ers (12/29 03:00) | Away win at 2.10
Toronto Raptors (h+3.5) vs Indiana Pacers (12/28 23:55) | Away win at 1.85
Total Odds: 3.88

2. Parlay
Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder (12/29 02:00) | Away win at 1.90
San Antonio Spurs vs LA Clippers (12/29 02:30) | Away win at 2.40
Total Odds: 4.56

3. Parlay
Charlotte Hornets (h+9.5) vs Miami Heat (12/29 01:00) | Away win at 1.70
Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks (12/29 04:30) | Away win at 1.60
Denver Nuggets (pk) vs Utah Jazz (12/29 03:00) | Home/Away win at 1.33
Total Odds: 3.61

4. Fun ticket (just a little something for kicks, really low stakes)
Charlotte Hornets (2nd half) vs Miami Heat (12/29 01:00) | Home win at 3.30 (might even play this as a single later)
San Antonio Spurs (pk) vs LA Clippers (12/29 02:30) | Draw/Away win at 2.95
Toronto Raptors (pk) vs Indiana Pacers (12/28 23:55) | Draw/Away win at 2.05
Phoenix Suns (pk) vs Philadelphia 76ers (12/29 03:00) | Home/Away win at 5.50
Kevin Durant (-29.5+) vs Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder (12/29 02:00) | Under at 1.85

Running a 3/5 system here—if three hit, you get the stake back... the first three parlays are also standard systems... Good luck to everyone following along...

Taking things easy today, going heavy tomorrow:

Blake Griffin over (He cleared 22 last time, and now he’s got Chris Paul coming in to provide those assists; plus, he dropped 31 against the Spurs in their last matchup)
Indiana (Toronto has been playing poorly lately, and Indiana absolutely crushed them at home even when their starters weren't at their best)
Tony Parker under (I can't quite put my finger on why, but maybe it's because he mentioned he doesn't expect the Spurs to be true contenders this season, or perhaps it's because he's being kept in check defensively by a solid opponent?)
Miami -9.5 (I have my doubts that the Bobcats will be able to keep the Miami Heat within a 10-point margin.)

Odds are 8, keeping the stake minimal.

Good luck to everyone. You might want to follow someone else tonight 👋!

Here is some interesting data regarding the Chris Paul over:

While with the Hornets, Paul lost 11 of 13 Games in San Antonio, including playoffs. However, he has averaged 26.3 points while shooting 56.2 percent from the field and 59.2 percent (13 for 22) from 3-point range in his last eight visits.

I have a feeling the Bobcats will hold Miami to a low score, making this a tight one.

So, looking at the slate tonight, which players are actually heating up enough to carry us toward the over? 🤷

Results are in:

Pacers 2
Miami pk 2/2
Atlanta pk 1/1
Knicks 2

for a smaller stake...

He actually pulled the trigger:
Miami + Atlanta + LA Clippers
🙂

I'm looking at Miami + Denver + Atlanta for a larger play, while sticking with Miami on the handicap for something smaller—LeBron should clear his points total, and I’m hunting for a little extra juice there...

Rondo takes it over
CP3 gets outclassed by
Golden State Warriors-New York Knicks over

5.08

Golden State Warriors win
New York Knicks lose
Parker stays under