NBA Betting: Vol. 2

0w/0l

#1
DraftKings
Los Angeles Lakers (-10.5) vs Utah Jazz @ 1.30

User Rating: 6/10

The Lakers are playing their third game in three nights, and honestly, they’ve already dropped both games in this stretch... It seems highly unlikely they’ll have enough gas left to handle a fresh Utah Jazz squad, especially with Pau Gasol dealing with those nagging injuries...

wiredcanyon39 said:Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
ulog: 7/10
0w/0l
The Wolves are looking pretty solid this season, especially since they brought in two rookies, Ricky Rubio and Williams. Honestly, Ricky has been kind of mesmerizing for the American public lately—his passing vision is just insane, though I guess us overseas fans have known that forever. Then you've got Williams, who’s great in the post and hits those threes, which really opens up the paint for the vets like Kevin Love, John Beasley, Luke Ridnour, and that newcomer from the Dallas Mavericks, J. J. Bare. I mean, if my gut is right, that might be enough to pull off a win against the Bucks tonight, and I think there's a good chance we cover that handicap. Milwaukee hasn't really added much; they're still leaning heavily on Monta Ellis and Andrei Bogut. Both teams are playing their second game in two nights, too. The Wolves just came off a loss to one of the heavy favorites this year, the Oklahoma City Thunder, while Milwaukee played pretty poorly and dropped one to the Charlotte Bobcats. Even though they're at home, I just don't see Milwaukee keeping pace with the Wolves this year. They look legit, maybe even a serious playoff contender in a stacked West.

☕
What do I know, though? Not exactly a genius if Pau Gasol ends up dominating the low post and wrecking my night. 🙂

Benjamin Martin72 said:To break it down, the guy ahead of me in line at the sportsbook placed a bet $483 on the Los Angeles Lakers without even blinking. It’s almost as if he actually enjoys losing money.

Or perhaps he just finds joy in the process of earning...😁

The Blazers are just going through the motions. 😁

Benjamin Martin72 said:Boško Buha underperforming

Boško Buha. 🤣

Keith Moore21 said:So, at the end of the day, he ended up playing against the Miami Heat, the Atlanta Hawks, and James Taylor3's Portland Trail Blazers. 😁

Man, I gotta say—I am just straight up killing it. Seriously, I'm on fire right now. 🙂

Way to go, James Taylor3! 🙏
Look, if you want to pass this assignment, you really have to do your homework—like, actually sit down and read every single preview and get up to speed on every single team. I mean, you can't just wing it. Once you're done digging through all that, I'll be testing you to see if you actually know your stuff. 🤣

Seriously though—who actually gave Pavlovic permission to step onto an NBA court?! 🤦 one 🙏 So, about that rookie from Miami (Cole)...
The Lakers basically just stumbled their way into a win there—I mean, man, talk about a rough night for the Jazz. They were shooting absolute garbage, like hovering around 30% from the field... and don't even get me started on Richard Jefferson, he was a total liability going 2-for-16. Just brutal. 🙄 )

James Castillo8 said:Here’s what I’m calling:
Kobe Bryant 26+
Los Angeles Lakers 1
Miami Heat 1
Rajon Rondo under
Atlanta Hawks 2
😉

Might shuffle a few things around later...

Kobe Bryant and Rondo swapped places :0

wiredcanyon39 said:☕
What does it even matter if Pau Gasol gets bent over by the defense... 🙂

It’s probably stupid to say this right after the game—but someone had to step up and actually contribute...🙂

The Heat, Nuggets, and Celtics are all playing today ☕

Nicholas Chase34 said:The fact that Paul Pierce might be out—meaning it’s not even confirmed he won’t play—doesn't change much.
A player being absent from the lineup doesn't automatically guarantee an over for someone else. You have to look at the specific role and mindset of the player involved... Rondo is a point guard, and his primary job is to facilitate and dish out assists. When it comes to his offensive capabilities, they're pretty thin—his perimeter shooting is subpar, so he really relies on layups. He had a bit of a "flash" during the game against the New York Knicks, though that was largely thanks to the Knicks' interior defense allowing him to score 16 points on layups in just 10 attempts(shooting 8-10), plus he picked up some easy buckets in transition because their transition defense was basically 0.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIoXD2THO8I 🤦 Zero defensive presence there.

Now, looking at today's opponent, the Miami Heat, who are arguably the main title contenders this season. Miami boasts a very solid interior defense—they were among the best last season, holding opponents to about 58% accuracy. The Heat will undoubtedly prepare for this matchup, and they'll almost certainly focus their attention on Rondo and his drives to the rim. Last season against Miami, Rondo averaged 8.9 points over 9 games (4, 8, 11, 7, 8, 20, 6, 10, 6). As you can see, he had that one outlier performance; without it, his average would be even lower than 8.9.
Regarding the 16.5 line... that’s a threshold Rondo cleared 15 times in 77 games last season, and we can certainly guess which teams those were against. At first glance, it looks like a "low" line—especially given his performance against the Knicks—so most people will naturally be drawn to the over. But I wouldn't call it that; for a playmaker with Rondo's specific skill set, this is actually quite a high bar. Sure, he could clear it, but the crux of the matter is that number: 16.5 (value) ☕

👍

I think Rondo scored 22 points, which is over 16.5 😉

Arthur Hill2 said:Man, watching the Minnesota Timberwolves, I gotta say—Ricky Rubio really blew me away. He’s just that classic, pure floor general you don't see much anymore. Just a textbook playmaker.

It could definitely go that way—I'm thinking Barea, Kevin Love, Beasley... Ricky Rubio Look, let's be real here—every single one of them is an above-average player. No question about it.
Man, if only they could just get rid of Dark. Seriously. 🤣

I mean, I’ve got this gut feeling... honestly? People are probably going to be cursing his name until the season wraps up. 😬

Look, if the Timberwolves don't figure out how to actually play decent ball on the road, they might as well kiss those playoff hopes goodbye right now. It’s not gonna happen if they keep struggling away from home. Seriously. 🤷

James Taylor3 said:The Blazers are just going through the motions again. Same old story. 😁

I don't even know where to start with this one. Honestly, I'm just staring at the screen wondering why I even bother. It’s all just noise, isn't it? Just endless, repetitive noise. I feel like I've been sitting here for hours, just circling the same drain, waiting for something—anything—to actually make sense. But nothing does. Nothing ever does. My head is spinning, my coffee is cold, and frankly, I’m just exhausted by the whole thing. Just... ugh. 😁

Man, here we go again... just the Lakers and everything else. Typical. 😳

Well, at least my analysis actually hit the mark, if only to make me feel slightly less useless today. 😳

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:I'm pretty sure Rondo dropped 22 points there, which definitely clears that 16.5 line. 😉

So, what now? Seriously, where do we even go from here? 🤷

darkmarlin16 said:The Heat, the Nuggets, and the Celtics all playing today... man, pass me the coffee. I’m gonna need it.

So, here's what's on my radar today...

Monta Ellis just absolutely tore it up. Seriously, what a performance.
Pacers
Monta Ellis vs Pacers/Hawks
Sixers? Man, don't even get me started on the 76ers. Honestly, just thinking about them gives me a headache. It’s always one step forward, two steps back with that squad. You think they've finally figured it out, and then—boom—everything falls apart. Just my luck, I guess. Always rooting for the underdog only to watch them trip over their own feet. Typical.
Man, that Boston Celtics squad of yours... honestly? It’s just depressing. 🙂

I told you guys all along that Rondo would clear his 16.5 line—yet I had five different people here trying to convince me there was absolutely no way he’d go over...

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:I said Rondo would go over 16.5, but then those five guys kept trying to prove there was zero chance he’d break that line...

Man, whatever. If you already had a hunch, I hope you didn't actually put money on it at the end of the day. 🤷

Anyway, the guy laid out his whole argument with actual facts and everything, but hey, life happens and things turned out differently. Honestly, I don't see the point in dragging him for it now. It is what it is. Next time will be better. 😉

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:I'm pretty sure Rajon Rondo dropped 22 points, which definitely clears that 16.5 line 😉

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:I specifically called for Rondo to go over 16.5, but I had five different people giving me reasons why there was absolutely no way he'd hit that number...

Hey, you don't need to troll us quite that hard, man! We all realized you actually nailed it this time
, and from what I can see on the board, nobody was actually claiming there was zero chance of an over. Just take a second to look closer at my last sentence—and maybe check out what everyone else said too—before jumping in with the attitude.🙄

analoghound21 said:I mean, honestly—if you already had that hunch, I really hope you didn't end up putting money on it in the end... 🤷

In any case, the guy laid out his thoughts pretty thoroughly—backed up by actual facts, too—but hey, things just played out the way they did in the end... I don't see much point in dragging him for it now. He'll do better next time... 😉

I respect what he wrote—those are just facts... but if he’s averaging 8.9 points against the Miami Heat, that doesn't mean he's actually going to drop nine...
I just wanted to say—I had this gut feeling it was going to clear the 16.5 line, and I actually put it down in writing...

analoghound21 said:Here's what's sitting at the top of my radar today...

Monta Ellis vs Pacers/Hawks
Pacers Hawks +1
76ers
And I've got my eye on that Boston squad of yours too
🙂

👍 😉

wiredcanyon39 said:I mean, I don't know if Kobe Bryant can really hit the over three nights in a row, maybe?

Man, if I had actually placed this bet 🙂

New Orleans Pelicans vs Boston Celtics: 1 @ 2.30
Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder: 2 @ 1.90

Total odds: 4.37 via DraftKings
Just a modest little play... nothing crazy, just enough to get something on the board 🙂

What are your thoughts?

Dwyane Wade gets within striking distance of 23 points with maybe 8 minutes left on the clock, then proceeds to miss four consecutive shots and one free throw, completely killing the over 🙂

Pau Gasol puts up 22 points and logs 37 minutes of action despite having played three straight games 🙂

Rondo sinks a three-pointer and draws a couple of questionable fouls. He is clearly playing with more aggression than he did last season. That much is certain. Plus, he logged 44 minutes of playtime.

Hawks vs Wizards 1 @1,25
Safe to say the Hawks absolutely dismantled the Nets—the same crew that just flipped the script on the Wizards (just paying the price for being green, like I said). They played out of their minds, and they usually take care of business at home anyway.

Charlotte Bobcats vs Miami Heat 2 @1,20
I'm not touching this bet because of the home team; it's about the visitors. They've matured, they've got a solid rookie in the mix, and honestly, it feels like their time to dominate the NBA is finally here.

Warriors vs Knicks 2 @1,70
The Warriors just took down the Bulls, so maybe they've had enough big scalps for one week. On the other hand, I've been watching the Knicks, and I think we finally have a legit squad. We're struggling with Playmakers, but hopefully there aren't too many turnovers. I'm not expecting anything crazy from Douglas or that little Chinese guy either.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder over 194,5 @1,85
This one just feels right. Both teams are offensive powerhouses right now, and I don't see much defense happening. To be honest, this pick is more of a gut feeling than some deep analytical breakdown.

@4,71

Still weighing whether to go for player points. The overs on Kevin Garnett, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Manu Ginobili look pretty tempting.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Hawks vs Wizards 1 @1.25
It’s enough to say the Hawks dismantled the Nets—the same squad that managed to flip the script on Washington earlier (just paying the price for inexperience, as I mentioned before). They played far too well, and they generally tend to take most of their games at home anyway...

Charlotte Bobcats vs Miami Heat 2 @1.20
I’m skipping this bet because of the home team, but rather focusing on the visitors; they've matured, they have a solid rookie in the mix, and frankly, it feels like their time has come to start taking over the NBA...

Warriors vs Knicks 2 @1.70
The Warriors beat Chicago, so maybe they’ve picked up enough big scalps for one week. Meanwhile, I’ve been watching the Knicks and I think we finally have a decent roster—though we're dealing with some issues regarding the Playmakers, let's just hope there aren't too many TOovs. I'm certainly not expecting anything out of the ordinary from Douglas or that little Chinese kid (whatever he's called)...

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder over 194.5 @1.85
This bet is just calling to me. Both teams are offensively explosive right now, and I don't see much defense being prioritized. Honestly, though, this pick is more of a gut feeling than a deeply calculated analysis...

@4.71

I'm still weighing whether to go after player points. The overs on Kevin Garnett, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Manu Ginobili look promising enough...

the Golden State Warriors playmaker is Stephen Curry http://www.nba.com/playerfile/stephe....html?nav=page
it seems to me that Golden State expects quite a lot from him...