NBA Betting: Vol. 2

James Taylor3 · 2011-12-20T22:00:41+00:00

Well, the long-awaited NBA season finally kicks off this Christmas. After a grueling 160-day lockout, an agreement has been reached—the new season can finally …

James Taylor3 NewcomerOP

7 messages
joined Jul 2012

#421 · Jan 2, 2012

5w/6l ; +3.00 units; ROI: +6.52%

Phoenix vs Warriors
Pick: Golden State -3.5

Odds: 3.25

Bookmaker: Bet365

Stake: 2/10

I’ve already covered both squads, so I'll be brief. Phoenix is a fading team—their two main guys have a combined age of 76, they're averaging maybe 20 minutes a night, and the rest of the roster consists of standard role players. Aside from Marcin Gortat, there isn't much real quality here.
They started the season poorly, dropping three of their first four, though two of those losses were actually convincing. This is their third game in four days; Chris Hill and Steve Nash certainly aren't at peak fitness, so it will be interesting to see what kind of shape they're in.

The Warriors have finally started playing defense, and I have to admit it looks decent—at least based on what I saw during their game against the New York Knicks. Offensively, they have a very strong trio in Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, and Lee, often supported by Wright, Rush, and Andris Biedrins. It's a solid group; if things click, they might even squeeze into the playoffs—we'll see. Monta looks great on offense—scoring and dishing it out effortlessly.
I think Golden State has a legitimate shot at winning tonight, and if they do win, covering a 4-point spread shouldn't be an issue.😁
There seems to be value here, so I'm taking it, albeit with a low stake.

New York vs Toronto
Pick: New York -8.5

Odds: 1.98

Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Stake: 5/10

It looks like the Knicks will be without Amar'e Stoudemire again tonight. His ankle is still swollen, and there's no point in rushing him back. While that's a significant blow to their ambitions, his replacement, the rookie Harrellson, played well last outing, putting up a double-double with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
Carmelo Anthony will lead the Knicks against a Toronto Raptors team that lost to the Orlando Magic in a rather foolish fashion last night after holding a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Knicks have the better roster, a loud home crowd, and more rest than the visitors. They also have Tyson Chandler, who should limit the paint entries for DeMar DeRozan and Jose Calderon, while ideally neutralizing Andrea Bargnani, who has started the season quite well. Toronto isn't a particularly elite squad, but you have to give them credit for fighting. That said, I think the Knicks will simply be too much for them to handle tonight, and an 8.5-point handicap is well within reach.

Keith Moore21 Active Member

56 messages
joined Jun 2014

#422 · Jan 2, 2012

Hey there, NBA junkies...
Got the Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets on my radar for today...

Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer

1 message
joined Sep 2011

#423 · Jan 2, 2012

Bryan Adams6 said:Here’s what caught my eye for tonight:
Golden State at 2.40>
The Suns are looking pretty weak right now, and honestly, the Warriors aren't exactly superstars either, but looking at the matchup between these two, I’d rather take a shot at the visitors at those odds. Is Monta Ellis playing? 😕>

LeBron James (-27.5+) - Miami vs Atlanta @ 1.85>
The King was looking a little reserved in the first half yesterday, but honestly, he probably didn't need to break a sweat against a Charlotte squad that's struggling that much. That said, Atlanta should really show a bit more grit, which means LeBron James is going to have to step up and find his rhythm to get more buckets through the hoop.

Andrea Bargnani (-21.5+) - NY vs Toronto @ 1.85
He dropped 28 points on Orlando yesterday... so clearing 21.5 shouldn't be much of a mountain to climb, especially since the Knicks aren't exactly known for being defensive juggernauts anyway.

What do you guys think? Any other plays? 🙂>

>

Golden State at 2.40 👍 This looks like a solid pick given how the Suns have been playing lately, and it’s definitely worth a look since Monta finally made it in time from his grandmother's funeral. R.I.P.
Quote:>
Monta Ellis has arrived in Phoenix and will play for the Warriors in Monday's matinee game.
Ellis is healthy and ready to go, but there was some question as to whether he'd arrive in time for tip-off. Get him into your active lineups immediately.
LeBron James should put on a show tonight, and historically, he’s always been a beast against Atlanta—averaging about 33.2 points against them last season (with scores like 22, 34, 43, and 34). He’s also decided to dial back the three-point attempts; he’s only tried one so far, and it didn't quite fall against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
LeBron James said that he has quit shooting three-pointers during his daily workouts.

On top of that, he’s leveled up his free throw shooting to 83%. All things considered, his decision to focus on efficiency makes him an ideal candidate for an over bet.

As for Bargnani, the leader for Toronto doesn't seem to care about anyone's reputation, and based on his current form and this specific matchup, he should easily cruise past the 20-point mark.

Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans Under 182.5 @ 1.85 Or you could try hitting the under on both teams at Bet365, Utah Jazz under 94.5 @ 1.85 combined with New Orleans Pelicans under 87.5 @ 1.85 which would give you total odds of 3.42.

The Pelicans play at a really slow pace, averaging about 91.2 possessions per game, while Utah is a bit faster at 97.5. New Orleans builds their offense methodically and they actually boast one of the best defenses out there right now, giving up only 87.8 points on average, even if their own offense is one of the worst in the league, averaging just 85. Utah averages about 90.5 points, which isn't a huge hurdle for the visitors, and their game mostly revolves around their frontcourt. Neither team has a massive superstar scorer who can completely take over a game. I'm picturing a final score somewhere around 91:85.☕

Steven Baker12 Member

12 messages
joined Oct 2006

#424 · Jan 2, 2012

The Golden State Warriors and Stephen Curry... today's two picks are heavy hitters... high stakes involved here.
Boston, the Knicks, and OKC... part two of the list... looking to recoup what we put up on the 😁

Chris Ortiz Active Member

88 messages
joined Dec 2010

#425 · Jan 2, 2012

Man, I have to say, there are some incredibly solid matchups on the board today. At least from my perspective, I’ve suddenly found myself really liking both Minnesota and Oklahoma🙂🙂
Trying to nail five straight NBA games in a row is practically an impossible feat, regardless of how much research you do.🙂

Looking ahead to tomorrow, though, the slate looks pretty thin. There aren't any games that really catch a bettor's eye from a strategic standpoint.

Jacob Taylor57 Member

40 messages
joined Sep 2012

#426 · Jan 2, 2012

Monta Ellis is back in the lineup for tonight, but David Lee is out due to illness. I see some value in the Golden State Warriors, but there is far too much shuffling happening within their roster for me to trust a trade deal here.

Bradley Kern6 Active Member

86 messages
joined Apr 2012

#427 · Jan 2, 2012

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/369/ulog.jpg

Best of luck to everyone out there.

Terry Rogers57 Newcomer

1 message
joined May 2011

#428 · Jan 2, 2012

The Phoenix Suns are looking pretty rough lately, yet they’re holding steady at -3.5 and have been sitting around -4.5 all day long, which feels strange since the Golden State Warriors are such a popular public bet, though I haven't actually seen anyone pick Phoenix yet while the action on GS seems to be piling up... It’s going to be tough without Lee, considering he usually puts up about 20 points a game, and while Ellis is expected to play, he’s dealing with some serious family issues right now, so I really don't think we can count on him bringing any extra energy to the court... Plus, Curry still hasn't quite gotten his ankle back to 100%... On top of that, the Warriors traditionally struggle when they're on the road and they have a pretty terrible record against this team, but then again, the Suns haven't managed a home win yet and are sitting at 0-2, so I'm just not sure if I want to touch this one as a major bet... just my two cents

Arthur Hill2 Member

20 messages
joined Jul 2009

#429 · Jan 2, 2012

I'm in complete agreement, especially regarding the point about how much traveling Monterey had to endure. That kind of constant cross-country movement just isn't something NBA players are ever truly accustomed to.

Terry Rogers57 Newcomer

1 message
joined May 2011

#430 · Jan 2, 2012

Denver -4.5

If this weren't a back-to-back situation, I'd say the spread should be closer to 10 points, but since they're playing on no rest, it's sitting at just 4.5... It’s definitely tough to pull off three games in a row, but Denver is such a well-balanced squad with incredible depth, especially with a bench where any of those 3 or 4 guys can step in for a starter without missing a beat, so I don't see fatigue being a massive factor quite this early in the season... They just took down the Lakers yesterday, so they'll be riding that momentum straight into a matchup against a struggling Sacramento team in two days, which means they won't have to hold anything back... The Bucks always seem to struggle when they're on the road, and last year they were a mess in the West with a 9-21 record, losing convincingly to Denver both times they met... They've managed a 2-1 start, but honestly, they've had a pretty soft schedule so far, and now that they're playing without Dunleavy, I really don't think they'll be able to pull anything special out of this one

Terry Rogers57 Newcomer

1 message
joined May 2011

#431 · Jan 2, 2012

Arthur Hill2 said:I'm right there with you, especially regarding the point about Monterey having to deal with all this constant travel, which just isn't something NBA players are typically used to dealing with on such short notice...

😁

You've got to be kidding me 😳

Well, okay, sure, they're used to flying, but it's more about the rhythm of it—flying from one game straight into a formal dinner, then a funeral, and then back to a game... 😁 I don't mean to sound like a jerk or imply I'm being cynical, and I'm certainly not saying he'll be a total disaster, but if he ends up having an off night and shoots 20 times just to sink three baskets, it really wouldn't be a shocker... there are just way too many "what ifs" hanging in the air here, and honestly, the Warriors aren't exactly an unstoppable force...

Arthur Hill2 Member

20 messages
joined Jul 2009

#432 · Jan 2, 2012

The Phoenix Suns are absolutely abysmal, at least during this opening stretch of the game.

Jerry Grant51 Active Member

67 messages
joined Dec 2011

#433 · Jan 2, 2012

What’s going on with Nash? Someone must have clocked him—he’s walking around with a massive bruise under his eye.

Arthur Hill2 Member

20 messages
joined Jul 2009

#434 · Jan 2, 2012

Joe Amsterdam clearly had him over the coals last time, and he definitely paid the price for it. It’s obvious he learned his lesson.

Jerry Grant51 Active Member

67 messages
joined Dec 2011

#435 · Jan 2, 2012

he had one last week too, haha

Maria Long10 Newcomer

1 message
joined May 2009

#436 · Jan 2, 2012

Bryan Adams6 As I was saying:
Here are the matchups I’m keeping a close eye on for tonight:

New York City vs. Toronto Raptors: Over 195.5 @ 1.85
Run and gun. ☕

Where on earth did you find that margin?

Bryan Adams6 Active Member

80 messages
joined Jul 2012

#437 · Jan 2, 2012

Kevin Cruz46 said:Where the hell did you find that line?

It was live on SuperSport when I posted, but obviously... I didn't lock it in right away. By the time I went to pay up around 8:30, the line moved to 199.5.🙂

You can still grab the over 195 @ 1.60 at Favorite.

James Taylor3 NewcomerOP

7 messages
joined Jul 2012

#438 · Jan 2, 2012

Steve Nash finished them off. 🙂

Jacob Price23 Newcomer

2 messages
joined Mar 2022

#439 · Jan 2, 2012

If Steve Nash had thrown a machine at them, it probably would've gone in. I took the handicap for GS to stay within 10.5, and they end up losing by 11. Seriously, what can you even say? Just pure bad luck. 🙂

Donna Martin11 Newcomer

9 messages
joined Jan 2013

#440 · Jan 2, 2012

Kevin Garnett (-14.5) for the Celtics vs. the Wizards—what’s the play here? Last night was an absolute blowout... anyone want to weigh in with their take?🙂

NBA Betting: Vol. 2

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