I’m leaning toward Philadelphia on the spread, taking them over 96.5... I already touched on my reasoning, but they are just sitting right there needing only one or two more buckets, and since Philly plays such an aggressive offensive style while Detroit stays defensive, it would honestly surprise me if they kept the score under 100 or 110 points...
Boston -6
They’ve picked up four wins in a row now, and while they were playing against some lesser teams, they played well enough to get the job done. The big thing for me here is that they have five full days of rest coming up after this, so there’s absolutely no reason to hold anything back, plus having Allen back in the lineup is huge because he has been an absolute beast this season... Indiana tends to struggle when they’re on the road, occasionally pulling off an upset if their shots are falling, but it’s hit or miss, and Boston is easily one of the better teams in the league at defending the perimeter. They’ve kept opponents under 90 in their last few outings, and besides, Indiana has to play again tomorrow at home against the Charlotte Bobcats...
Minnesota -7
This is a roster loaded with talent, and in my eyes, they are easily the top four team in the league, though Jamison has been Cleveland's most productive player this year, and I don't see him making much of a dent against Love... Minnesota is a young squad, which means they can be inconsistent, but it also means they are always playing with high energy, which shows in their ATS record this year (5-1) and how they fight until the final whistle against tough opponents. They did stumble recently, losing to Dallas by 17, San Antonio by 10, splitting with Miami, and then having that slip-up against Memphis... I think a bounce-back is coming today against a mediocre Cleveland team that sits at 3-3 after mostly beating up on bottom-feeders...
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
When a powerhouse like the Thunder drops two in a row, you know they’re looking for a reaction. It is incredibly difficult to beat them on their own floor, and after dropping one in Dallas and then one at home to Portland, facing Houston feels like it was tailor-made for a comeback... They’ve dealt with some injury issues too, with Sefolosha and Cook sitting out the last one, which might not seem like much, but it forced Harden into the starting five, which stripped away those crucial scoring options from the bench... With them returning, Harden should slide back into that sixth man role where he can really provide that spark when the starters need a boost...
Houston isn't a bad team by any means, but they rely way too heavily on the three-point shot, and those kinds of teams are notoriously hard to beat on the road. They’re also dealing with some roster uncertainty; Lowry’s status is questionable and he hasn't been playing great this season, and they’re also missing C. Lee, who isn't a superstar but could certainly chip in 10 points... Houston recently got hammered by 30 against the LA Clippers, lost by 10 to the LA Lakers the night before, and now they’re heading into this matchup at a very low point... In their last three trips here, they've lost by about 15 to 20 points...
Portland ML
I’ll be honest, this line doesn't sit right with me; it smells like a sucker bet, but I decided to take it anyway... Portland has been the best team in the West so far. I have no idea where they'll go from here, but they've shown the most potential thus far. The only downside is they're on the second half of a back-to-back, but even that shouldn't justify them being this close to a spread against one of the worst teams in the West... I am a little uneasy that the odds aren't moving and the spread isn't shifting, which feels odd, so I'm keeping my stake relatively small...