NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Terry Rogers57 said:Isn't it actually preferable to have some variance rather than a player sitting at a line of 20.5 just hitting 20 one night and 22 the next in a predictable loop? It would be difficult to place any meaningful wager on such consistency. It is precisely because of those fluctuations and the strategic management of minutes that this could work, provided one catches the right momentum—though I am merely observing, as I don't personally wager on these specific metrics, but it has piqued my interest this season...😕

However, attempting to stack four superstar overs into a single parlay simply because they are currently in form won't make anyone wealthy, and it seems to be the primary way most people approach their bets.🤷

That isn't quite right; the fact that the season is shorter actually provides even more incentive for coaches to calculate their moves. With a lower threshold for making the playoffs, teams can secure their spots with fewer wins, which naturally opens up opportunities to rest starters or reduce their playing time. I never suggested focusing solely on superstars, but in a standard season, you generally know when players are being rested or pushed; the bar for playoff contention is higher, leaving less room for tactical maneuvering. In a condensed schedule where the entry bar is lower, anything can happen.

The total points line for the LA Lakers vs. Phoenix game is sitting at 189.5 in the spread... I just pulled up the stats on the betting site and noticed that over the last 20 matchups, from 2008 all the way to now, every single one of those 20 games has smashed that number... 😲
So, naturally, they’re probably gonna screw us over today and go under🤷

Regarding how things are shaking out, I honestly think players are going to start coasting more during those heavy-hitter matchups in the regular season. Take a matchup like the Detroit Pistons versus Miami, for example. It’s pretty obvious the Pistons are going to bench someone like a Prince just to save him for a blowout game against a bottom-feeder where they can actually guarantee a win. Why burn all your energy against Miami when you've only got a 10% shot at walking away with the W?
That’s exactly why I decided to take the Wall over against the Toronto Raptors today. 😁

Ronald Chase44 said:That isn't quite right, because the fact that the season is shorter actually provides more incentive for teams to calculate their moves, since you can now make it into the playoffs with significantly fewer wins, which naturally opens up opportunities for resting players or giving them less playing time. I didn't specifically mention the superstars earlier, but at least this way you know during the regular season when guys are resting or playing hard, because the threshold for entering the playoffs is higher and there's less strategic maneuvering involved, whereas with a lower threshold like this, anything could happen...

You say it's not true, yet you end up saying pretty much the same thing I did. I also mentioned that there will be more tactical management regarding minutes, though I actually see that as a positive factor since it's something a betting shop simply cannot factor into their margins. It feels to me like the main issue is that everyone is way too focused on player overs. At least that's my impression, seeing how maybe 80% of the bets people place on player totals are overs, if you just look at stormyseal9's post above nhf stormyseal9. Now, I can't possibly predict whether someone is going to shoot 3/20 or 15/20 tonight, but perhaps I can predict if they'll take 20 shots instead of 10, or if they'll log 35+ minutes instead of 25, and that's where you find an actual edge, which is something you really need when you're facing those 1.85 odds at a local sportsbook

*I forgot to address the part about needing fewer wins for the playoffs... that's not really accurate, actually, because it's going to be tougher now since things will be tighter, given that fewer games mean every single matchup carries much more weight...

I disagree with the idea that you can't bet on player over/unders. Even with all the fluctuations, players tend to get their minutes regardless of whether the season is shortened or not, so there’s definitely value to be found there. Personally, I think it’s pretty foolish to just hammer an over for someone like Mel because he dropped 13 points last game and you assume he’s about to explode—that's just bad logic. You have to trust your gut, but also make sure you check at least the last two games to see how the team is actually rotating him and what his current rhythm looks like. Plus, when picking a player's over/under, you really need to consider who they'll be matched up against defensively.

I think I'll pass on any heavy bets today. There are just too many favorites on the board, which leaves way too much room for things to go sideways. Good luck to everyone else out there.

7w/11l ; -2.1 units; ROI: -2.73%

LA Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns

Pick: Lakers -8.5

Odds: 2.09

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Stake: 6/10

The Lakers opened the season 6-4—not spectacular, but hardly a disaster considering they played 10 games in just 15 days while other teams were playing maybe six or seven. Plus, Bynum missed those first four.
Things are starting to click—they've taken three of their last four. Kobe is still forcing it, but his shot is falling well enough that it doesn't look nearly as bad. Gasol remains solid, and Bynum is simply dominating; he’s physically overwhelming most centers in the league, including the Suns' Gortat. Artest has had a rough start to the year—his defense has slipped and his offensive game is lacking. Fisher is getting older, though he holds his own and can always chip in with a three. The Lakers' bench isn't anything special, and they’re still without McRoberts today—that's five straight games for him. Between Gasol’s scoring, Bynum's presence on both ends, and Kobe, the Lakers have the edge. They are formidable at home, and I don't see the Suns being able to cause much trouble tonight despite their decent form. Nash and Hill are aging, and Gortat might be their best asset. They lack a true superstar to carry them through the clutch moments—certainly not Gortat, Dudley, or Warrick, and Nash and Hill are veterans who struggle to clear 25 minutes. In my view, Phoenix is one of the weaker teams in the West, if not the entire league, and I don't give them much of a chance tonight. More importantly, I expect the Lakers to win this comfortably; they dominate the paint, Artest and Barnes will keep Hill in check, and Nash should hold his own against an aging Fisher—though Kobe could easily step in there given his defensive capabilities. On top of that, Phoenix has always been a poor road team, so a double-digit Lakers victory seems likely.

I'm taking this Lakers spread as a single today, plus I’ll throw together one more half-baked parlay:

Lakers (-13.5) vs Suns - 1 - 3.20
Pistons vs Mavericks - 2 - 1.45
Portland vs Clippers - 1 - 1.55
Grizzlies (+10.5) vs Thunder - 1 - 1.30

@ 9.35 stake — practically peanuts

And my single: Portland vs Clippers 2/1 6.50

Stake is a joke here, too.

Philadelphia vs Kings, Over/Under 197.5. Philly is on a tear right now, riding a five-game win streak where they’ve managed to cover the spread every single time. They’re a defensive beast at home, holding opponents to an average of just 73.7 points. Meanwhile, when the Kings hit the road, they tend to put up about 108 while giving up 86. My gut says Sacramento isn't breaking 86 tonight. The Over is sitting at 93.5, which feels way too high to me. Honestly, the only team to hold them to low numbers lately was the Pacers, and even then, they finished yesterday at 86 in Philadelphia.

The Grizzlies still haven't found their rhythm without Randolph leading the charge, and honestly, getting the Thunder at -1.70 feels like a massive value.

The Bulls have been on a tear lately, riding a four-game winning streak against Memphis; I wouldn't be surprised if we see the over hit tonight in the Memphis vs Love matchup.

What do you guys think—is it worth putting some extra cash on the Jazz (maybe pairing them with the Heat too)? I'm feeling like they're looking stronger than the Cavaliers right now, plus they haven't dropped a game at home yet...??

What do you guys think about Charlotte vs Houston? I'm leaning toward the Rockets taking the under. This matchup looks pretty juicy to me. Neither Williams nor the US Lottery have this one listed... In the Derby, the line is at 95.5, but Premier has it at 98.5!? That 3-point gap is huge. Seems kinda weird...😁I noticed SS has the line at 98.5 too.
Kevin Martin (flu) missed shootaround and is a game-time decision on Tuesday. Courtney Lee won't be playing. Kyle Lowry is back in the mix. I was digging through the head-to-head stats for these two teams from 2004 until now—the Rockets have never actually cleared this spread on the road during regulation: http://www.betexplorer.com/basketbal...atchid=6865300
Charlotte has played four home games this season (against the Heat, Hawks, Bucks, and Magic) and only the Magic managed to put up more than 98.5 points.
The Rockets have played five road games and they've stayed under 98.5 every single time.

Hey everyone, figured I'd jump into the conversation about my absolute favorite sport.

Kenneth Bailey, you hit the nail on the head there. I'm just waiting for official word that Martin is sitting this one out, then I'm heavy on Rockets under 98.5.

Here's what I put down:
Evans under 18.5 at 1.85 odds. He was absolutely electric in the last game, dropping 28 points before twisting his ankle late in the first half. They had to drag him off because he couldn't even walk, but the guy gets back out there in the second half and sinks 17 points. These ankle tweaks are tricky, though—they always feel worse once the leg cools down. On the road, Evans averages about 7 points per game lately, so I’m hoping he keeps that trend tonight, especially since they're facing a solid defense.
Suns 1 at 1.3 odds
Total: 2.4

Regarding this whole debate about player O/U lines... personally, I usually lean toward the unders. I’ve got this gut feeling—not that I’ve actually sat down and tracked the numbers or anything—but it feels like this season has been leaning heavily toward the unders so far. 🤷
@play ...did you happen to keep track of any of this? 😬 ...I'm genuinely curious what the actual state of things looks like (like, say, those SS margins) 🤷

Raymond Scott18 said:Bucks vs San Antonio under 95.5, over 1.85
John Wall over 16.5, over 1.85

I’d take the opposite on both of those before I touched them. 😛

The Bucks finally get Bogut back, which should give them some much-needed grit in the paint and on defense. They're coming off five straight road games and five straight losses, so they're going to be hungry tonight. On the other hand, San Antonio is facing a Rockets team that absolutely embarrassed them during their first road trip of the season (105-85), so they might just coast through this one. Plus, they'll be without Ginobili, and if Parker and Blair aren't getting minutes, it's looking more like an under to me. 🤷

Wall isn't exactly playing great lately. He's averaging about 14.4 PPG this season, and his three-point shooting is non-existent at 0%. Last game against Minnesota, he shot a measly 30% and only put up 10 points. Then in the last two matchups against the Raptors, he had 8 points on 4-of-14 shooting, and then 21 pointsbut again, the field goal percentage was a disaster at 5-of-14, even though he hit 12 free throws (and mind you, N. Young and Blatche weren't even in the lineup then). Clearly, these Spanish-style plays aren't doing him any favors 😬 and, like @play mentioned recently, Toronto is defending the hoop way better this season. 🤷
It's true, this is basically make-or-break for the Wizards—a total toss-up. But it felt similar last game, and clearly nothing is clicking for this squad. They even admitted themselves that if they fall behind by 7 or 8 points, they completely lose their cool. The only exception was against the Knicks, if I recall correctly—even though those Knicks were terrible ☕—and they still lost that one.

Brian Barrett5 said:What do you guys think? Is it worth putting the Jazz on for better odds (maybe parlay them with Miami)? I feel like they're stronger than the Cavaliers, and they're undefeated at home... right??

They should win, but I wouldn't chase the higher odds on them. The Cavs are tougher than they were last season, and you have to be careful because they play the Lakers tomorrow—who absolutely dismantled them recently. 🤷

My picks for today:
San Antonio vs Memphis under 95.5
Memphis vs OKC under 193.5

Wizards vs Raptors under 185.5
Portland vs Lakers

Blake Griffin vs Dirk Nowitzki 1 1,70

Am I losing my mind, or is this a massive lock?

Griffin is consistently dropping 20+ points, while Dirk has averaged just 8 over his last two games. 🙂

I've made up my mind; I'm taking the triple:

Griffin in the matchup
Chicago vs OKC
x2

analoghound21 said:play Hey, were you maybe taking some notes on that? 😬 I'm really curious to get a sense of how things are looking right now—like, what’s the actual situation regarding the SS margins? 🤷

The way things are looking at the sportsbook right now, we’re sitting at about 59.60% to 40.40% in favor of the under. 😁 👍

Tonight's picks:
#1
Lakers -4.5
Heat -4.5
Mavericks ML
@3.28

#2
Thunder
Lakers
Bulls
@3.20

#3
Scola over 17.5
Bosh over 18.5
@3.42

Do you think the Wizards will finally pull off a win tonight? 😬

I don't think Boza should be starting. There's a real chance we see Wejd get some minutes, especially since the Warriors aren't what they used to be. Back when MJ arrived, they turned into an absolute defensive powerhouse. I honestly have no clue what kind of coaching magic he used to force guys like Courtney Lee and Curry to actually lock in on defense 🤣

I spent a good chunk of last year betting player props—didn't go well. I eventually realized the smartest move is to just stay away from them, so I haven't touched a single one this season, nor do I plan to. 😁

Nicholas Chase34 said:As of today, the split on SS stands at 59.60% to 40.40% in favor of the under. 😁 👍

Hey, if you're up for it, give us an update on those odds roughly every two or three weeks—I'm genuinely curious to see how it trends.
I've always maintained there are more unders than overs, and sticking to the under is the better play. 😁