Joshua Newman2
Active Member
53 messages
joined Jul 2009
So, Fernando Alonso is currently sitting 8 points ahead of Mark Webber, who in turn holds a 7-point lead over Sebastian Vettel. To put it bluntly, Webber’s fate is no longer in his own hands; if Fernando Alonso manages to secure second place, the championship is essentially decided regardless.
Now, let's run through a scenario: suppose in the next race, Vettel takes first, Webber comes in second, and Fernando Alonso finishes third. This isn't just a fantasy; it's actually quite plausible, and if it happens, Fernando Alonso clinches the title. However, if Vettel—who can't realistically snatch the crown unless he finishes at least five spots ahead of Fernando Alonso—fails to overtake Webber, then Webber would be the champion. That seems highly unlikely to happen, at least not as long as Red Bull clings to their mantra of refusing to issue team orders. Furthermore, in that specific scenario, Fernando Alonso becomes the champion precisely because of team orders; had he been 7 points behind (assuming Felipe Massa hadn't let him through back in Germany), he wouldn't be in this position. In such a messy hypothetical, Red Bull loses the title by playing fair against those who aren't. Otherwise, both sides are equally ruthless—though I find it hard to believe, given that Vettel would likely rather set his own hair on fire with a desk lamp than see Webber lose the title (and vice versa, should the roles be reversed).
Another equally realistic possibility is one where Webber finishes first, followed by Vettel, then Fernando Alonso. In this setup, Webber secures the championship. But would Vettel really be foolish enough to "slip up" and let Fernando Alonso pass just to screw over Webber? I wouldn't bet on it. Then again, it's not entirely impossible that Webber might let Fernando Alonso past just to spite Vettel, though given the point gap, the math makes that much less probable (we'd need Vettel to finish first, Webber fourth, and Fernando Alonso fifth).
Looking at this through a purely Machiavellian lens, Red Bull should have prioritized putting Webber ahead of Vettel today. Doing so would effectively neutralize the advantage Ferrari gained when Massa played nice in Germany, thereby maximizing their collective shot at the title. In that case, Webber would simply need to stay ahead of Fernando Alonso, leaving Vettel with the same slim chances he has now—only if Fernando Alonso finishes significantly far back or fails to score at all.
From a sporting integrity standpoint, everyone deserves an even playing field. Something needs to be done about these team order dynamics, because right now, the side playing more honestly is being handed a massive disadvantage.
Regarding the speculation that little Hulk should replace Webber at Red Bull: why on earth would they? Much like Fernando Alonso, Vettel clearly has zero patience for internal competition, and Christian Horner has already signaled that the team is being built around him. If Webber were to leave (perhaps moving to Ferrari instead of a disastrous stint like Massa's, or joining Robert Kubica at Renault), I'd expect Red Bull to promote either Felipe Buemi or Jaime Alguersuari to the main seat. They don't exactly need to go out and hunt for a rookie fast enough to get under Vettel's skin.